Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Generalizing the use of geographical weights in biodiversity modelling

Aim Determining how ecological processes vary across space is a major focus in ecology. Current methods that investigate such effects remain constrained by important limiting assumptions. Here we provide an extension to geographically weighted regression in which local regression and spatial weighting are used in combination. This method can be used to investigate non-stationarity and spatial-scale effects using any regression technique that can accommodate uneven weighting of observations, including machine learning. Innovation We extend the use of spatial weights to generalized linear models and boosted regression trees by using simulated data for which the results are known, and compare these local approaches with existing alternatives such as geographically weighted regression (GWR). The spatial weighting procedure (1) explained up to 80% deviance in simulated species richness, (2) optimized the normal distribution of model residuals when applied to generalized linear models versus GWR, and (3) detected nonlinear relationships and interactions between response variables and their predictors when applied to boosted regression trees. Predictor ranking changed with spatial scale, highlighting the scales at which different species–environment relationships need to be considered. Main conclusions GWR is useful for investigating spatially varying species–environment relationships. However, the use of local weights implemented in alternative modelling techniques can help detect nonlinear relationships and high-order interactions that were previously unassessed. Therefore, this method not only informs us how location and scale influence our perception of patterns and processes, it also offers a way to deal with different ecological interpretations that can emerge as different areas of spatial influence are considered during model fitting.

Assessment of body composition in Sri Lankan children: Validation of a bioelectrical impedance prediction equation

Objective: To develop bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations to predict total body water (TBW) and fat-free mass (FFM) of Sri Lankan children. Subjects/Methods: Data were collected from 5- to 15-year-old healthy children. They were randomly assigned to validation (M/F: 105/83) and cross-validation (M/F: 53/41) groups. Height, weight and BIA were measured. TBW was assessed using isotope dilution method (D2 O). Multiple regression analysis was used to develop preliminary equations and cross-validated on an independent group. Final prediction equation was constructed combining the two groups and validated by PRESS (prediction of sum of squares) statistics. Impedance index (height2/impedance; cm2/Ω), weight and sex code (male = 1; female = 0) were used as variables. Results: Independent variables of the final prediction equation for TBW were able to predict 86.3% of variance with root means-squared error (RMSE) of 2.1l. PRESS statistics was 2.1l with press residuals of 1.2l. Independent variables were able to predict 86.9% of variance of FFM with RMSE of 2.7 kg. PRESS statistics was 2.8 kg with press residuals of 1.4 kg. Bland Altman technique showed that the majority of the residuals were within mean bias±1.96 s.d. Conclusions: Results of this study provide BIA equation for the prediction of TBW and FFM in Sri Lankan children. To the best of our knowledge there are no published BIA prediction equations validated on South Asian populations. Results of this study need to be affirmed by more studies on other closely related populations by using multi-component body composition assessment.

Robust estimating functions and bias correction for longitudinal data analysis

Robust methods are useful in making reliable statistical inferences when there are small deviations from the model assumptions. The widely used method of the generalized estimating equations can be "robustified" by replacing the standardized residuals with the M-residuals. If the Pearson residuals are assumed to be unbiased from zero, parameter estimators from the robust approach are asymptotically biased when error distributions are not symmetric. We propose a distribution-free method for correcting this bias. Our extensive numerical studies show that the proposed method can reduce the bias substantially. Examples are given for illustration.

Gaseous Nitrogen Losses Following Soil Amendment with Biosolids under Controlled Conditions.

This paper quantifies gaseous N losses due to ammonia volatilisation and denitrification under controlled conditions at 30 degrees C and 75% to 150% of Field Capacity (FC). Biosolids were mixed with two contrasting soils from subtropical Australia at a rate designed to meet crop N requirements for irrigated cotton or maize (i.e., equivalent to 180 kg N ha(-1)). In the first experiment, aerobically (AE) and anaerobically (AN) digested biosolids were mixed into a heavy Vertosol soil and then incubated for 105 days. Ammonia volatilization over 72 days accounted for less than 4% of the applied NH4-N but 24% (AN) to 29% (AE) of the total applied biosolids' N was lost through denitrification in 105 days. In the second experiment AN biosolids with and without added polyacrimide polymer were mixed with either a heavy Vertosol or a lighter Red Ferrosol and then incubated for 98 days. The N loss was higher from the Vertosol with 16-29% of total N applied versus the Red Ferrosol with 7-10% of total N applied, while addition of polymer to the biosolids increased N loss from 7 to 10% and from 16 to 29% in the Red Ferrosol and Vertosol, respectively. A major product from the denitrification process was N-2 gas, accounting for >90% of the emitted N gases from both experiments. Our findings demonstrate that denitrification could be a major pathway of gaseous N losses under warm and moist conditions.

Preliminary investigation into development of forage budget application and device

Forage budgeting, land condition monitoring and maintaining ground cover residuals are critical management practices for the long term sustainability of the northern grazing industry. The aim of this project is to do a preliminary investigation into industry need, feasibility and willingness to adopt a simple to use hand-held hardware device and compatible, integrated software applications that can be used in the paddock by producers, to assist in land condition monitoring and forage budgeting for better Grazing Land Management and to assist with compliance.

Flying-Fox Species Density-A Spatial Risk Factor for Hendra Virus Infection in Horses in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.

Effect of temperature and precipitation on salmonellosis cases in South-East Queensland, Australia: An observational study

Objective Foodborne illnesses in Australia, including salmonellosis, are estimated to cost over $A1.25 billion annually. The weather has been identified as being influential on salmonellosis incidence, as cases increase during summer, however time series modelling of salmonellosis is challenging because outbreaks cause strong autocorrelation. This study assesses whether switching models is an improved method of estimating weather–salmonellosis associations. Design We analysed weather and salmonellosis in South-East Queensland between 2004 and 2013 using 2 common regression models and a switching model, each with 21-day lags for temperature and precipitation. Results The switching model best fit the data, as judged by its substantial improvement in deviance information criterion over the regression models, less autocorrelated residuals and control of seasonality. The switching model estimated a 5°C increase in mean temperature and 10 mm precipitation were associated with increases in salmonellosis cases of 45.4% (95% CrI 40.4%, 50.5%) and 24.1% (95% CrI 17.0%, 31.6%), respectively. Conclusions Switching models improve on traditional time series models in quantifying weather–salmonellosis associations. A better understanding of how temperature and precipitation influence salmonellosis may identify where interventions can be made to lower the health and economic costs of salmonellosis.

Vapor phase oxidation of ethanol over thorium molybdate catalyst

Ethanol oxidation in the vapor phase was studied in an isothermal flow reactor using thorium molybdate catalyst in the temperature range 220–280 °C. Under these conditions the catalyst was highly selective to acetaldehyde formation. The rate data were well represented by a steady state two-stage redox model given by the equation: View the MathML source The parameters of the above model were estimated by linear and nonlinear least squares methods. In the case of nonlinear estimation the sum of the squares of residuals decreased. The activation energies and preexponential factors for the reduction and oxidation steps of the model, estimated by nonlinear least squares technique are: 9.47 kcal/mole, 9.31 g mole/ (sec) (g cat) (atm) and 9.85 kcal/mole, 0.17 g mole/(sec) (g cat) (atm)0.5, respectively. Oxidations of ethanol and methanol over thorium molybdate catalyst were compared under similar conditions.

Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications

The interdependence of Greece and other European stock markets and the subsequent portfolio implications are examined in wavelet and variational mode decomposition domain. In applying the decomposition techniques, we analyze the structural properties of data and distinguish between short and long term dynamics of stock market returns. First, the GARCH-type models are fitted to obtain the standardized residuals. Next, different copula functions are evaluated, and based on the conventional information criteria and time varying parameter, Joe-Clayton copula is chosen to model the tail dependence between the stock markets. The short-run lower tail dependence time paths show a sudden increase in comovement during the global financial crises. The results of the long-run dependence suggest that European stock markets have higher interdependence with Greece stock market. Individual country’s Value at Risk (VaR) separates the countries into two distinct groups. Finally, the two-asset portfolio VaR measures provide potential markets for Greece stock market investment diversification.

Asteroid identification using statistical orbital inversion methods

An efficient and statistically robust solution for the identification of asteroids among numerous sets of astrometry is presented. In particular, numerical methods have been developed for the short-term identification of asteroids at discovery, and for the long-term identification of scarcely observed asteroids over apparitions, a task which has been lacking a robust method until now. The methods are based on the solid foundation of statistical orbital inversion properly taking into account the observational uncertainties, which allows for the detection of practically all correct identifications. Through the use of dimensionality-reduction techniques and efficient data structures, the exact methods have a loglinear, that is, O(nlog(n)), computational complexity, where n is the number of included observation sets. The methods developed are thus suitable for future large-scale surveys which anticipate a substantial increase in the astrometric data rate. Due to the discontinuous nature of asteroid astrometry, separate sets of astrometry must be linked to a common asteroid from the very first discovery detections onwards. The reason for the discontinuity in the observed positions is the rotation of the observer with the Earth as well as the motion of the asteroid and the observer about the Sun. Therefore, the aim of identification is to find a set of orbital elements that reproduce the observed positions with residuals similar to the inevitable observational uncertainty. Unless the astrometric observation sets are linked, the corresponding asteroid is eventually lost as the uncertainty of the predicted positions grows too large to allow successful follow-up. Whereas the presented identification theory and the numerical comparison algorithm are generally applicable, that is, also in fields other than astronomy (e.g., in the identification of space debris), the numerical methods developed for asteroid identification can immediately be applied to all objects on heliocentric orbits with negligible effects due to non-gravitational forces in the time frame of the analysis. The methods developed have been successfully applied to various identification problems. Simulations have shown that the methods developed are able to find virtually all correct linkages despite challenges such as numerous scarce observation sets, astrometric uncertainty, numerous objects confined to a limited region on the celestial sphere, long linking intervals, and substantial parallaxes. Tens of previously unknown main-belt asteroids have been identified with the short-term method in a preliminary study to locate asteroids among numerous unidentified sets of single-night astrometry of moving objects, and scarce astrometry obtained nearly simultaneously with Earth-based and space-based telescopes has been successfully linked despite a substantial parallax. Using the long-term method, thousands of realistic 3-linkages typically spanning several apparitions have so far been found among designated observation sets each spanning less than 48 hours.

Hybrid moving block bootstrap for stochastic simulation of multi-site multi-season streamflows

The Hybrid approach introduced by the authors for at-site modeling of annual and periodic streamflows in earlier works is extended to simulate multi-site multi-season streamflows. It bears significance in integrated river basin planning studies. This hybrid model involves: (i) partial pre-whitening of standardized multi-season streamflows at each site using a parsimonious linear periodic model; (ii) contemporaneous resampling of the resulting residuals with an appropriate block size, using moving block bootstrap (non-parametric, NP) technique; and (iii) post-blackening the bootstrapped innovation series at each site, by adding the corresponding parametric model component for the site, to obtain generated streamflows at each of the sites. It gains significantly by effectively utilizing the merits of both parametric and NP models. It is able to reproduce various statistics, including the dependence relationships at both spatial and temporal levels without using any normalizing transformations and/or adjustment procedures. The potential of the hybrid model in reproducing a wide variety of statistics including the run characteristics, is demonstrated through an application for multi-site streamflow generation in the Upper Cauvery river basin, Southern India. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods in general model localization

The aim of this study was to evaluate and test methods which could improve local estimates of a general model fitted to a large area. In the first three studies, the intention was to divide the study area into sub-areas that were as homogeneous as possible according to the residuals of the general model, and in the fourth study, the localization was based on the local neighbourhood. According to spatial autocorrelation (SA), points closer together in space are more likely to be similar than those that are farther apart. Local indicators of SA (LISAs) test the similarity of data clusters. A LISA was calculated for every observation in the dataset, and together with the spatial position and residual of the global model, the data were segmented using two different methods: classification and regression trees (CART) and the multiresolution segmentation algorithm (MS) of the eCognition software. The general model was then re-fitted (localized) to the formed sub-areas. In kriging, the SA is modelled with a variogram, and the spatial correlation is a function of the distance (and direction) between the observation and the point of calculation. A general trend is corrected with the residual information of the neighbourhood, whose size is controlled by the number of the nearest neighbours. Nearness is measured as Euclidian distance. With all methods, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were lower, but with the methods that segmented the study area, the deviance in single localized RMSEs was wide. Therefore, an element capable of controlling the division or localization should be included in the segmentation-localization process. Kriging, on the other hand, provided stable estimates when the number of neighbours was sufficient (over 30), thus offering the best potential for further studies. Even CART could be combined with kriging or non-parametric methods, such as most similar neighbours (MSN).

Reactions of copper(I) aryloxides with phenyl isothiocyanate: steric and ligand control in the oligomerization of [N-phenylimino(aryloxy)methanethiolato]copper(I) complexes

The preparation of five different copper(I) complexes [CuSC(=NPh)(OAr)}L(n)]m (1-5) formed by the insertion of PhNCS into the Cu-OAr bond and the crystal structure analyses of three of them have been carried out. A monomeric species 1 (OAr = 2,6-dimethylphenoxide) is formed in the presence of excess PPh3 (n = 2, m = 1) and crystallizes as triclinic crystals with a = 12.419(4) angstrom, b = 13.298(7) angstrom, c = 15.936(3) angstrom, alpha = 67.09(3)-degrees, beta = 81.63(2)-degrees, gamma = 66.54(3)-degrees, V = 2224(2) angstrom3, and Z = 2. The structure was refined by the least-squares method to final R and R(w) values of 0.038 and 0.044, respectively, for 7186 unique reflections. Copper(I) 2,5-di-tert-butyl-4-methylphenoxide results in the formation of a dimeric species 2 in the presence of P(OMe)3 (n = 1, m = 2), where the coordination around Cu is trigonal. Crystals of 2 were found to be orthorhombic with a = 15.691(2) angstrom, b = 18.216(3) angstrom, c = 39.198(5) angstrom, v = 11204(3) angstrom3, and Z = 8. Least-squares refinement gave final residuals of R = 0.05 and R(w) = 0.057 with 6866 unique reflections. A tetrameric species 3 results when PPh3 is replaced by P(OMe)3 in the coordination sphere of copper(I) 2,6-dimethylphenoxide. It crystallizes in the space group P1BAR with a = 11.681 (1) angstrom, b = 13.373(2) angstrom, c = 20.127(1) angstrom, a = 88.55(l)-degrees, beta = 89.65(l)-degrees, gamma = 69.28(1)-degrees, V = 2940(l) angstrom3, and Z = 2. Least-squares refinement of the structure gave final values of 0.043 and 0.05 for R and R(w) respectively using 12214 unique reflections. In addition, a dimeric species 4 is formed when 1 equiv of PPh3 is added to the copper(I) 4-methylphenoxide, while with an excess of PPh3 a monomeric species 5 is isolated. Some interconversions among these complexes are also reported.

Synthesis, properties and crystal structures of diastereomeric areneruthenium(II) chiral Schiff-base complexes

Diastereomers (SRu,Sc)-1a and (RRu,Sc)-1b, in a ratio of 85: 15 and formulated as [Ru(η-MeC6H4Pri-p)Cl(L*)], have been prepared by treating [{Ru(η-MeC6H4Pri-p)Cl2}2] with the sodium salt of (S)-α-methylbenzylsalicylaldimine (HL*) in tetrahydrofuran at –70 °C. The reaction of 1(1a+1b) with AgClO4 in acetone followed by an addition of PPh3 or 4-methylpyridine (4Me-py) leads to the formation of adducts [Ru(η-MeC6H4Pri-p)(PPh3)(L*)]ClO42[(SRu,Sc)2a, (FRu,Sc)2b] and [Ru(η-MeC6H4Pri-p)(4Me-py)(L*)]ClO43[(SRu,Sc)3a, (RRu,Sc)3b] in the diastereomeric ratios (SRu,Sc) : (RRu,Sc) of 2 : 98 and 76 : 24, respectively. Complex 1 crystallises with equal numbers of 1a and 1b molecules in an asymmetric unit of monoclinic space group P21 with a= 10.854(1), b= 17.090(1), c= 12.808(4)Å, β= 110.51(1)°, and Z= 4. The structure was refined to R= 0.0552 and R′= 0.0530 with 2893 reflections having I[gt-or-equal] 1.5σ(I). The absolute configurations of the chiral centres in the optically pure single crystal of the PPh3 adduct have been obtained from an X-ray study. Crystals of formulation [Ru(η-MeC6H4Pri-p)-(PPh3)(L*)]2[ClO4][PF6]·1.5 CHCl3, obtained in presence of both ClO4 and PF6 anions, belong to the non-centric triclinic space group P1 with a= 10.852(2), b= 14.028(1), c= 15.950(2)Å, α= 91.51(1), β= 105.97(1), γ= 106.11(1)°, and Z= 2. The final residuals were R= 0.0713, R′= 0.0752 with 7283 reflections having I[gt-or-equal] 2.5σ(I). The crystal structures of 1a,1b, and the PPh3 adduct (2b,2b′) consist of a ruthenium(II) centre bonded to a η-p-cymene, a bidentate chelating Schiff base, and a unidentate ligand (Cl or PPh3). The chirooptical properties of the complexes have been studied using 1H NMR and CD spectral data. The presence of a low-energy barrier for the intermediate involved in these reactions, showing both retention as well as inversion of the metal configuration, is discussed.