Impact of ocean acidification and warming on respiration, heart rate and acid-base status of Mytilus edulis from the North Sea

Anthropogenic climate change confronts marine organisms with rapid trends of concomitant warming and CO2 induced ocean acidification. The survival and distribution of species partly depend on their ability to exploit their physiological plasticity during acclimatization. Therefore, in laboratory studies the effects of simulated future ocean acidification on thermal tolerance, energy metabolism and acid-base regulation capacity of the North Sea population of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis were examined. Following one month of pre-acclimation to 10 °C and control CO2 levels, mussels were exposed for two weeks to control and projected oceanic CO2 levels (390, 750 and 1120 µatm) before being subjected to a stepwise warming protocol between 10 °C and 31 °C (+ 3 °C each night). Oxygen consumption and heart rates, anaerobic metabolite levels and haemolymph acid-base status were determined at each temperature. CO2 exposure left oxygen consumption rate unchanged at acclimation temperature but caused a somewhat stronger increase during acute warming and thus mildly higher Q10-values than seen in controls. Interestingly, the thermally induced limitation of oxygen consumption rate set in earlier in normocapnic than in hypercapnic (1120 µatm CO2) mussels (25.2 °C vs. 28.8 °C), likely due to an onset of metabolic depression in the control group following warming. However, the temperature induced increase in heart rate became limited above 25 °C in both groups indicating an unchanged pejus temperature regardless of CO2 treatment. An upper critical temperature was reached above 28 °C in both treatments indicated by the accumulation of anaerobic metabolites in the mantle tissue, paralleled by a strong increase in haemolymph PCO2 at 31 °C. Ocean acidification caused a decrease in haemolymph pH. The extracellular acidosis remained largely uncompensated despite some bicarbonate accumulation. In all treatments animals developed a progressive warming-induced extracellular acidosis. A stronger pH drop at around 25 °C was followed by stagnating heart rates. However, normocapnic mussels enhanced bicarbonate accumulation at the critical limit, a strategy no longer available to hypercapnic mussels. In conclusion, CO2 has small effects on the response patterns of mussels to warming, leaving thermal thresholds largely unaffected. High resilience of adult North Sea mussels to future ocean acidification indicates that sensitivity to thermal stress is more relevant in shaping the response to future climate change.

A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia

Sorghum is the main dryland summer crop in NE Australia and a number of agricultural businesses would benefit from an ability to forecast production likelihood at regional scale. In this study we sought to develop a simple agro-climatic modelling approach for predicting shire (statistical local area) sorghum yield. Actual shire yield data, available for the period 1983-1997 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, were used to train the model. Shire yield was related to a water stress index (SI) that was derived from the agro-climatic model. The model involved a simple fallow and crop water balance that was driven by climate data available at recording stations within each shire. Parameters defining the soil water holding capacity, maximum number of sowings (MXNS) in any year, planting rainfall requirement, and critical period for stress during the crop cycle were optimised as part of the model fitting procedure. Cross-validated correlations (CVR) ranged from 0.5 to 0.9 at shire scale. When aggregated to regional and national scales, 78-84% of the annual variation in sorghum yield was explained. The model was used to examine trends in sorghum productivity and the approach to using it in an operational forecasting system was outlined. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surface seawater carbonate chemistry, nutrients and phytoplankton community composition on a transect between North Sea and Arctic Ocean, 2008

This data was collected during the 'ICE CHASER' cruise from the southern North Sea to the Arctic (Svalbard) in July-Aug 2008. This data consists of coccolithophore abundance, calcification and primary production rates, carbonate chemistry parameters and ancillary data of macronutrients, chlorophyll-a, average mixed layer irradiance, daily irradiance above the sea surface, euphotic and mixed layer depth, temperature and salinity.

Atlas of abundance and distribution patterns of ichthyoplankton from the Northeast Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea ecosystems: based on research conducted by the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (1972–1996)

This regional atlas summarizes and illustrates the distribution and abundance patterns of fish eggs and larvae of 102 taxa within 34 families found in the Northeast Pacific Ocean including the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and U.S. west coast ecosystems. Data were collected over a 20+ year period (1972–1996) by the Recruitment Processes Program of the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC). Ichthyoplankton catch records used in this atlas were generated from 11,379 tows taken during 100 cruises. For each taxon, general life history data are briefly summarized from the literature. Published information on distribution patterns of eggs and larvae are reviewed for the study area. Data from AFSC ichthyoplankton collections were combined to produce an average spatial distribution for each taxon. These data were also used to estimate mean abundance and percent occurrence by year and month, and relative abundance by larval length and season. Abundance from each tow was measured as catch per 10 m2 surface area. A larval distribution and abundance map was produced with a geographic information system using ArcInfo software. For taxa with identifiable pelagic eggs, distribution maps showing presence or absence of eggs are presented. Presence or absence of adults in the study area is mapped based on recent literature and data from AFSC groundfish surveys. Distributional records for adults and early life history stages revealed several new range extensions. (PDF file contains 288 pages.)

Seasonality in the coastal ocean of North America, 35°N - 48°N [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The seasonal cycles of coastal wind stress, adjusted sea level height (ASL), shelf currents and water temperatures off the west coast of North America (35°N to 48°N) were estimated by fitting annual and semiannual harmonics to data from 1981-1983. Longer records of monthly ASL indicate that these two harmonics adequately represent the long-term monthly average seasonal cycle, and that the current measurement period is long enough to define the seasonal cycles, with relatively small errors in magnitude and phase.

Guide to the identification of larval and early juvenile pricklebacks (Perciformes: Zoarcoidei: Stichaeidae) in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea

Stichaeidae, commonly referred to as pricklebacks, are intertidal and subtidal fishes primarily of the North Pacific Ocean. Broad distribution in relatively inaccessible and undersampled habitats has contributed to a general lack of information about this family. In this study, descriptions of early life history stages are presented for 25 species representing 18 genera of stichaeid fishes from the northeastern Pacific Ocean, Bering Sea, and Arctic Ocean Basin. Six of these species also occur in the North Atlantic Ocean. Larval stages of 16 species are described for the first time. Additional information or illustrations intended to augment previous descriptions are provided for nine species. For most taxa, we present adult and larval distributions, descriptions of morphometric, meristic, and pigmentation characters, and species comparisons, and we provide illustrations for preflexion through postflexion or transformation stages. New counts of meristic features are reported for several species.

A regime shift in the North Sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the North Sea horse mackerel fishery

After 1987, Phytoplankton Colour (a visual estimate of chlorophyll) measured on samples taken by the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) in the North Sea increased substantially, both in level and seasonal extent, compared to earlier years since 1946. Many species of phytoplankton and zooplankton showed marked changes in abundance at about the same time. These events coincided with a large increase in catches of the western stock of the horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus L.) in the northern North Sea reflecting a northerly expansion of the stock along the shelf edge from the Bay of Biscay to the North Sea after 1987. Using a 3D hydrodynamic model, with input from measured wind parameters, monthly transport of oceanic water into the North Sea has been calculated for the period 1976–1994, integrated for a section from Orkney to Shetland to Norway. A substantial increase in oceanic inflow occurred in the winter months, December to March, from 1988. Higher sea surface temperatures were also measured after 1987 especially in spring and summer months. These biological and physical events may be a response to observed changes in pressure distribution over the North Atlantic. From 1988 onwards, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores, increased to the highest positive level observed in this century. Positive NAO anomalies are associated with stronger and more southerly tracks of the westerly winds and higher temperatures in western Europe. These changing wind distributions may have led to an increase in the northerly advection of water along the western edge of the European shelf and may have assisted the migration of the horse mackerel. This study is possibly a unique demonstration of a correlation between three different trophic levels of a marine ecosystem and hydrographic and atmospheric events at decadal and regional scales. The results emphasise the importance of maintaining into the future long term programmes such as the CPR.

From silk to satellite: half a century of ocean colour anomalies in the Northeast Atlantic

Changes in phytoplankton dynamics influence marine biogeochemical cycles, climate processes, and food webs, with substantial social and economic consequences. Large-scale estimation of phytoplankton biomass was possible via ocean colour measurements from two remote sensing satellites – the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS, 1979-1986) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, 1998-2010). Due to the large gap between the two satellite eras and differences in sensor characteristics, comparison of the absolute values retrieved from the two instruments remains challenging. Using a unique in situ ocean colour dataset that spans more than half a century, the two satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) eras are linked to assess concurrent changes in phytoplankton variability and bloom timing over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and North Sea. Results from this unique re-analysis reflect a clear increasing pattern of Chl-a, a merging of the two seasonal phytoplankton blooms producing a longer growing season and higher seasonal biomass, since the mid-1980s. The broader climate plays a key role in Chl-a variability as the ocean colour anomalies parallel the oscillations of the Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) since 1948.

Genotyping an Emiliania huxleyi (Prymnesiophyceae) bloom event in the North Sea reveals evidence of asexual reproduction

Due to the unprecedented rate at which our climate is changing, the ultimate consequence for many species is likely to be either extinction or migration to an alternate habitat. Certain species might, however, evolve at a rate that could make them resilient to the effects of a rapidly changing environment. This scenario is most likely to apply to species that have large population sizes and rapid generation times, such that the genetic variation required for adaptive evolution can be readily supplied. Emiliania huxleyi (Lohm.) Hay and Mohler (Prymnesiophyceae) is likely to be such a species as it is the most conspicuous extant calcareous phytoplankton species in our oceans with generation times of 1 day−1. Here we report on a validated set of microsatellites, in conjunction with the coccolithophore morphology motif genetic marker, to genotype 93 clonal isolates collected from across the world. Of these, 52 came from a single bloom event in the North Sea collected on the D366 UK Ocean Acidification cruise in June-July 2011. There were 26 multilocus genotypes (MLGs) encountered only once in the North Sea bloom and 8 MLGs encountered twice or up to six times. Each of these repeated MLGs exhibited Psex values of less than 0.05 indicating each repeated MLG was the product of asexual reproduction and not separate meiotic events. In addition, we show that the two most polymorphic microsatellite loci, EHMS37 and P01E05, are reporting on regions likely undergoing rapid genetic drift during asexual reproduction. Despite the small sample size, there were many more repeated genotypes than previously reported for other bloom-forming phytoplankton species, including a previously genotyped E. huxleyi bloom event. This study challenges our current assumption that sex is the predominant mode of reproduction during bloom events. Whilst genetic diversity is high amongst extant populations of E. huxleyi, the root cause for this diversity and ultimate fate of these populations still requires further examination. Nonetheless, we show that certain CMM genotypes are found everywhere; while others appear to have a regional bias.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.

The application of Regional Climate Model output for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

This study investigates the possibilities and limitations of using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output for the simulation of alpine permafrost scenarios. It focuses on the general problem of scale mismatch between RCMs and impact models and, in particular, the special challenges that arise when driving an impact model in topographically complex high-mountain environments with the output of an RCM. Two approaches are introduced that take into account the special difficulties in such areas, and thus enable the use of RCM for alpine permafrost scenario modelling. Intended as an initial example, they are applied at the area of Corvatsch (Upper Engadine, Switzerland) in order to demonstrate and discuss the application of the two approaches, rather than to provide an assessment of future changes in permafrost occurrence. There are still many uncertainties and inaccuracies inherent in climate and impact models, which increase when driving one model with the output of the other. Nevertheless, our study shows that the use of RCMs offers new and promising perspectives for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

Predictability and uncertainty in a regional climate model

The evaluation of the quality and usefulness of climate modeling systems is dependent upon an assessment of both the limited predictability of the climate system and the uncertainties stemming from model formulation. In this study a methodology is presented that is suited to assess the performance of a regional climate model (RCM), based on its ability to represent the natural interannual variability on monthly and seasonal timescales. The methodology involves carrying out multiyear ensemble simulations (to assess the predictability bounds within which the model can be evaluated against observations) and multiyear sensitivity experiments using different model formulations (to assess the model uncertainty). As an example application, experiments driven by assimilated lateral boundary conditions and sea surface temperatures from the ECMWF Reanalysis Project (ERA-15, 1979–1993) were conducted. While the ensemble experiment demonstrates that the predictability of the regional climate varies strongly between different seasons and regions, being weakest during the summer and over continental regions, important sensitivities of the modeling system to parameterization choices are uncovered. In particular, compensating mechanisms related to the long-term representation of the water cycle are revealed, in which summer dry and hot conditions at the surface, resulting from insufficient evaporation, can persist despite insufficient net solar radiation (a result of unrealistic cloud-radiative feedbacks).

Reliability of regional climate model trends

A necessary condition for a good probabilistic forecast is that the forecast system is shown to be reliable: forecast probabilities should equal observed probabilities verified over a large number of cases. As climate change trends are now emerging from the natural variability, we can apply this concept to climate predictions and compute the reliability of simulated local and regional temperature and precipitation trends (1950–2011) in a recent multi-model ensemble of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5). With only a single verification time, the verification is over the spatial dimension. The local temperature trends appear to be reliable. However, when the global mean climate response is factored out, the ensemble is overconfident: the observed trend is outside the range of modelled trends in many more regions than would be expected by the model estimate of natural variability and model spread. Precipitation trends are overconfident for all trend definitions. This implies that for near-term local climate forecasts the CMIP5 ensemble cannot simply be used as a reliable probabilistic forecast.