Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

Does World Natural Heritage status trigger sustainable regional development efforts?

Today, there are over 200 World Natural Heritage (WNH) sites. Although the original aim of the World Heritage (WH) Convention was to spark off concerted international efforts to preserve sites of outstanding and universal value, today a multitude of expectations rests on WNH sites in terms of conservation, tourism, management and regional development. This paper identifies the effects of WNH status on sustainable regional development and the driving factors behind these effects. The results are based on a global survey of WNH sites and qualitative interviews with key WNH personnel. The paper shows that WNH status can be an important trigger for sustainable regional development, but its effectiveness depends on a number of intricately interwoven ‘soft’ success factors. Clearer policies and management guidelines, as envisaged by UNESCO, are crucial to achieving a balance between conservation and development.

A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions

This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent the majority of the climate diversity in the European sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement is found between the reconstructed and simulated climate features across Europe, supporting consistency in both products. Systematic biases between both data sets can be explained by a priori known deficiencies in the simulation. Simulations and reconstructions, however, largely differ in the temporal evolution of past climate for European subregions. In particular, the simulated anomalies during the Maunder and Dalton minima show stronger response to changes in the external forcings than recorded in the reconstructions. Although this disagreement is to some extent expected given the prominent role of internal variability in the evolution of regional temperature and precipitation, a certain degree of agreement is a priori expected in variables directly affected by external forcings. In this sense, the inability of the model to reproduce a warm period similar to that recorded for the winters during the first decades of the 18th century in the reconstructions is indicative of fundamental limitations in the simulation that preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, the simulated climate is a physically consistent data set, which can be used as a benchmark to analyse the consistency and limitations of gridded reconstructions of different variables. A comparison of the leading modes of SAT and PRE variability indicates that reconstructions are too simplistic, especially for precipitation, which is associated with the linear statistical techniques used to generate the reconstructions. The analysis of the co-variability between sea level pressure (SLP) and SAT and PRE in the simulation yields a result which resembles the canonical co-variability recorded in the observations for the 20th century. However, the same analysis for reconstructions exhibits anomalously low correlations, which points towards a lack of dynamical consistency between independent reconstructions.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Scaling in geology: landforms and earthquakes.

Landforms and earthquakes appear to be extremely complex; yet, there is order in the complexity. Both satisfy fractal statistics in a variety of ways. A basic question is whether the fractal behavior is due to scale invariance or is the signature of a broadly applicable class of physical processes. Both landscape evolution and regional seismicity appear to be examples of self-organized critical phenomena. A variety of statistical models have been proposed to model landforms, including diffusion-limited aggregation, self-avoiding percolation, and cellular automata. Many authors have studied the behavior of multiple slider-block models, both in terms of the rupture of a fault to generate an earthquake and in terms of the interactions between faults associated with regional seismicity. The slider-block models exhibit a remarkably rich spectrum of behavior; two slider blocks can exhibit low-order chaotic behavior. Large numbers of slider blocks clearly exhibit self-organized critical behavior.

ELA-ICP-MS U-Pb zircon geochronology of regional volcanism hosting the Bajo de la Alumbrera Cu-Au deposit: implications for porphyry-related mineralization

ELA-ICP-MS U-Pb zircon geochronology has been used to show that the porphyritic intrusions related to the formation of the Bajo de la Alumbrera porphyry Cu-Au deposit, NW Argentina, are cogenetic with stratigraphically well-constrained volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks of the Late Miocene Farallon Negro Volcanic Complex. Zircon geochronology for intrusions in this deposit and the host volcanic sequence show that multiple mineralized porphyries were emplaced in a volcanic complex that developed over 1.5 million years. Volcanism occurred in a multivent volcanic complex in a siliciclastic intermontane basin. The complex evolved from early mafic-intermediate effusive phases to a later silicic explosive phase associated with mafic intrusions. Zircons from the basal mafic-intermediate lavas have ages that range from 8.46 +/- 0.14 to 7.94 +/- 0.27 Ma. Regionally extensive silicic explosive volcanism occurred at similar to8.0 Ma (8.05 +/- 0.13 and 7.96 +/- 0.11 Ma), which is co-temporal with intrusion of the earliest mineralized porphyries at Bajo de la Alumbrera (8.02 +/- 0.14 and 7.98 +/- 0.14 Ma). Regional uplift and erosion followed during which the magmatic-hydrothermal system was probably unroofed. Shortly thereafter, dacitic lava domes were extruded (7.95 +/- 0.17 Ma) and rhyolitic diatremes (7.79 +/- 0.13 Ma) deposited thick tuff blankets, across the region. Emplacement of large intermediate composition stocks occurred at 7.37 +/- 0.22 Ma, shortly before renewed magmatism occurred at Bajo de la Alumbrera (7.10 +/- 0.07 Ma). The latest porphyry intrusive event is temporally associated with new ore-bearing magmatic-hydrothermal fluids. Other dacitic intrusions are associated with subeconomic deposits that formed synchronously with the mineralized porphyries at Bajo de la Alumbrera. However, their emplacement continued (from 7.10 +/- 0.06 to 6.93 +/- 0.07 Ma) after the final intrusion at Bajo de al Alumbrera. Regional volcanism had ceased by 6.8 Ma (6.92 +/- 0.07 Ma). The brief history of the volcanic complex hosting the Bajo de la Alumbrera Cu-Au deposit differs from that of other Andean provinces hosting porphyry deposits. For example, at the El Salvador porphyry copper district in Chile, magmatism related to Cu mineralization was episodic in regional igneous activity that occurred over tens of millions of years. Bajo de la Alumbrera resulted from the superposition of multiple porphyry-related hydrothermal systems, temporally separated by a million years. It appears that the metal budget in porphyry ore deposits is not simply a function of their longevity and/or the superposition of multiple porphyry systems. Nor is it a function of the duration of the associated cycle of magmatism. Instead, the timing of processes operating in the parental magma body is the controlling factor in the formation of a fertile porphyry-related ore system.

Geochronology of the Pengjiakuang and Rushan gold deposits, Eastern Jiaodong Gold Province, Northeastern China: Implications for regional mineralization and geodynamic setting

The Jiaodong gold province, the largest gold-producing district in China, is located in the jiaodong peninsula at the eastern margin of the North China craton and bounded by the continental scale Tan-Lu fault, 40 kin to the west. Previous geochronological studies suggest that pervasive gold deposition took place in the western part of the province between 122 and 119 Ma. Here we report high-quality Ar-40/Ar-39 ages of the Pengjiakuang and Rushan deposits from the eastern part of the jiaodong gold province, placing additional chronological constraints on the timing of regional mineralization. Seven sericite grains extracted from auriferous alteration assemblages at the Pengiiakuang deposit yielded well-defined plateau ages between 120.9 +/- 0.4 and 119.1 +/- 0.2 Ma (2 sigma). Three separates of igneous biotite from a sample of the Queshan gneissic granite, adjacent to the Pengjiakuang deposit, gave reproducible plateau ages of 124.6 +/- 0.6 to 123.9 +/- 0.4 Ma (2 sigma). Six sericite separates front two samples in the Rushan deposit yielded Ar-40/Ar-39 plateau ages at 109.3 +/- 0.3 to 107.7 +/- 0.5 Ma (2 sigma), whereas biotite from the Kunyushan monzogranite that hosts the Rushan deposit had plateau ages ranging from 129.0 +/- 0.6 to 126.9 +/- 0.6 Ma (3 separates front one sample). The apparent age gap between hydrothermal sericite and magmtic biotite from both deposits, together with the similar argon closure temperatures for these mica minerals, suggest that gold mineralization had no direct relationship to the granitoid magmatism. Instead, gold deposition coincided with the emplacement of mafic to intermediate dikes widespread in the jiaodong gold province, which have been dated at ca. 122 to 119 Ma and, less commonly, at 110 to 102 Ma. The new Ar-40/Ar-39 ages from the eastern jiaodong peninsula, when combined with published data from the western part suggest that gold mineralization was broadly contemporaneous throughout the district. The Early Cretaceous gold mineralization also is widely developed in four other major gold districts along the Tan-Lu fault. The temporal and spatial correlation of these gold deposits with mafic to intermediate dikes commonly found in most mineralized areas, the presence of well-documented metamorphic core complexes and half-graben basins along the Tan-Lu fault, and voluminous basalts therein, suggest that the Early Cretaceous was an important period of lithospheric extension, possibly caused by the late Mesozoic lithospheric thinning beneath the eastern block of the North China craton. Lithospheric thinning and extension could have resulted in abnormally high heat and fluid fluxes necessary for large-scaled gold mineralization.