Time to initiation of antiretroviral therapy among patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis in Cape Town, South Africa

We studied the time interval between starting tuberculosis treatment and commencing antiretroviral treatment (ART) in HIV-infected patients (n = 1433; median CD4 count 71 cells per microliter, interquartile range: 32-132) attending 3 South African township ART services between 2002 and 2008. The overall median delay was 2.66 months (interquartile range: 1.58-4.17). In adjusted analyses, delays varied between treatment sites but were shorter for patients with lower CD4 counts and those treated in more recent calendar years. During the most recent period (2007-2008), 4.7%, 19.7%, and 51.1% of patients started ART within 2, 4, and 8 weeks of tuberculosis treatment, respectively. Operational barriers must be tackled to permit further acceleration of ART initiation as recommended by 2010 WHO ART guidelines.

An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250

Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus, can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations, estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate, potassium, and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680, following an extremely dry period AD 1540-1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540-1680, the increase in fire activity AD 1600-1680, and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600-1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years, despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions.

On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

We investigate the changes of extreme European winter (December-February) precipitation back to 1700 and show for various European regions that return periods of extremely wet and dry winters are subject to significant changes both before and after the onset of anthropogenic influences. Generally, winter precipitation has become more extreme. We also examine the spatial pattern of the changes of the extremes covering the last 300 years where data quality is sufficient. Over central and Eastern Europe dry winters occurred more frequently during the 18th and the second part of the 19th century relative to 1951–2000. Dry winters were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th century over the British Isles and the Mediterranean. Wet winters have been less abundant during the last three centuries compared to 1951–2000 except during the early 18th century in central Europe. Although winter precipitation extremes are affected by climate change, no obvious connection of these changes was found to solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing. However, physically meaningful interpretation with atmospheric circulation changes was possible.

A 170 year spring phenology index of plants in eastern China

Extending phenological records into the past is essential for the understanding of past ecological change and evaluating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. A growing body of historical phenological information is now available for Europe, North America, and Asia. In East Asia, long-term phenological series are still relatively scarce. This study extracted plant phenological observations from old diaries in the period 1834–1962. A spring phenology index (SPI) for the modern period (1963–2009) was defined as the mean flowering time of three shrubs (first flowering of Amygdalus davidiana and Cercis chinensis, 50% of full flowering of Paeonia suffruticosa) according to the data availability. Applying calibrated transfer functions from the modern period to the historical data, we reconstructed a continuous SPI time series across eastern China from 1834 to 2009. In the recent 30 years, the SPI is 2.1–6.3 days earlier than during any other consecutive 30 year period before 1970. A moving linear trend analysis shows that the advancing trend of SPI over the past three decades reaches upward of 4.1 d/decade, which exceeds all previously observed trends in the past 30 year period. In addition, the SPI series correlates significantly with spring (February to April) temperatures in the study area, with an increase in spring temperature of 1°C inducing an earlier SPI by 3.1 days. These shifts of SPI provide important information regarding regional vegetation-climate relationships, and they are helpful to assess long term of climate change impacts on biophysical systems and biodiversity.

Early-Holocene afforestation processes in the lower subalpine belt of the Central Swiss Alps as inferred from macrofossil and pollen records

To reconstruct the vegetation history of the Upper Engadine, continuous sediment cores covering the past 11 800 years from Lej da Champfer and Lej da San Murezzan (Upper Engadine Valley, c. 1800 m a.s.l., southeastern Switzerland) have been analysed for pollen and plant macrofossils. The chronologies of the cores are based on 16 and 22 radiocarbon dates, respectively. The palaeobotanical records of both lakes are in agreement for the Holocene, but remarkable differences exist between the sites during the period 11 100 to 10 500 cal. BP, when Lej da Champfer was affected by re-sedimentation processes. Macrofossil data suggest that Holocene afforestation began at around 11400 cal. BP. A climatic deterioration, the Preboreal Oscillation, stopped and subsequently delayed the establishment of trees until c. 11000 cal. BP, when first Betula, then Pinus sylvestrislmugo, then Larix 300 years later, and finally Pinus cembra expanded within the lake catchment. Treeline was at c. 1500 m during the Younger Dryas (12 542- 11 550 cal. BP) in the Central Alps. Our results, along with other macrofossil studies from the Alps, suggest a nearly simultaneous afforestation (e.g., by Pinus sylvestris in the lower subalpine belt) between 1500 and 2340 m a.s.l. at around 11 400 to 11 300 cal. BP. We suggest that forest-limit species (e.g., Pinus cembra, Larix decidua) could expand faster at today's treeline (c. 2350 m a.s.l.), than 550 m lower. Earlier expansions at higher altitudes probably resulted from reduced competition with low-altitude trees (e.g. Pinus sylvestris) and herbaceous species. Comparison with other proxies such as oxygen isotopes, residual A14C, glacier fluctuations, and alpine climatic cooling phases suggests climatic sensitivity of vegetation during the early Holocene.

Herbivores limit the population size of big-leaf mahogany trees in an Amazonian forest

The Janzen–Connell hypothesis proposes that specialized herbivores maintain high numbers of tree species in tropical forests by restricting adult recruitment so that host populations remain at low densities. We tested this prediction for the large timber tree species, Swietenia macrophylla, whose seeds and seedlings are preyed upon by small mammals and a host-specific moth caterpillar Steniscadia poliophaea, respectively. At a primary forest site, experimental seed additions to gaps – canopy-disturbed areas that enhance seedling growth into saplings – over three years revealed lower survival and seedling recruitment closer to conspecific trees and in higher basal area neighborhoods, as well as reduced subsequent seedling survival and height growth. When we included these Janzen–Connell effects in a spatially explicit individual-based population model, the caterpillar's impact was critical to limiting Swietenia's adult tree density, with a > 10-fold reduction estimated at 300 years. Our research demonstrates the crucial but oft-ignored linkage between Janzen–Connell effects on offspring and population-level consequences for a long-lived, potentially dominant tree species.

Pollen profiles from 8 sediment cores from the Degersee, Southern Germany

The discovery of a neolithic pile field in the shallow water near the eastern shore of the Degersee confirmed earlier palynological and sedimentological studies stating that early man was active in the region since more than 6000 years. The already available off-site data were freshly assessed, completed by additional data from old and new cores and the interpretations revised. A common time scale for the off-site data and the on-site data was obtained by AMS dating of terrestrial macro remains of the neolithic section of off-site core De_I+De_H. The ages can thus be parallelled with AMS ages of construction timber on-site. Pollen analyses from all cores provide a further time scale. The continuously and densely sampled pollen profile of the profundal zone embracing the entire Late glacial and Holocene serves as a reference. From the Boreal onwards the relative ages are transformed by AMS ages and varve counts into calibrated and absolute. A transect cored close to the neolithic pile field across the lake marl-platform demonstrates its geological architecture in the shallow water since the Lateglacial. Studies of the microfabric of thin sections of drilled cores and of box cores from the excavations demonstrate that neolithic settlements now at 2-3,5 m water depth had been erected on lake marl freshly fallen dry, thus indicating earlier lake levels dropped by 1.5-2 m. The neolithic section of the highly resolved off-site profile in the lake=s profundal zone has laminated and calcareous zones alternating with massive ones. Assemblages of diatoms and concentrations of trace elements changing simultaneously characterise the calcareous sections as deposits of low lake levels that lasted between some 40 and more than 300 years. The ages of discovered lake shore dwellings fall into calcareous segments with low lake levels. From the end of the Upper Atlantic period (F VII) appear Secondary Forest Cycles in the beech forest, a man-made sequence of repeated vegetational development with an identical pattern: With a decrease of beech pollen appear pollen of grasses, herbs and cultural indicators. These are suppressed by the light demanding hazel and birch, those again by ash, and finally by the shade demanding beech forming a new pollen peak. Seven main Forest Cycles are identified In the upper Neolithic period each comprising some 250, 450 or 800 years. They are subdivided into subcycles that can be broken down by very dense sampling in even shorter cycles of decadal length. Farming settlers have caused minor patchy clearances of the beech-mixed-forest with the use of fire. The phases of clearance coincide with peaks of charcoal and low stands of the lake levels. The Secondary Forest Cycles and the continuous occurrence of charcoal prove a continued occupation of the region. Together with the repeated restoration of the beech climax forest they point to pulsating occupation probably associated with dynamic demography. The synchronism of the many palynological, sedimentological and archaeological data point to an external forcing as the climate that affects comprehensively all these proxies. The fluctuations of the activity of the sun as manifested in the residual d14C go largely along with the proxies. The initial clearances at the begin of the forest cycles are linked to low lake levels and negative values of d14C that point to dry and warm phases of a more continental climate type. The subcycles exist independent from climatic changes, indicating that early man acted largely independent from external forces.

Tab. 1+2: C14-dates cf the older and younger emergence periods

In the neighbourhood of Oobloyah Bay various phenomena ean be eneountered whieh point to a ularge-seale uplift of shorelines, i.e. to an emergence of 200 m. Delta terraces, deltaic fan terraces and glacio-marine sands are regarded by the author as being the most reliable evidence of this. The marine limit documented by glacio-marine sand is to be found at ~170 m a.s.l. Hints of ancient shorelines located at a higher level exist only in the shape of badly preserved raised beaches. They were classified as less reliable records of past sea-levels, due to the lack of marine fossils and/or drift wood, and furthermore because those forms had been strongly influenced by periglacial processes. Deltaic deposits are of more importance in this context. The glacio-marine deltaic sands of several terrace levels contain terrestrial plant remnants which delivered C14dates. Using these dates und the relative elevations of terraces the emergenee of the area investigated could be recorded. This occured in a series of phases (and steps) which were summarized into two periods: an early period of emergenee which took place from at least 25 300 years B.P. to later than 17 340 years B.P. and a later one from at least 12 870 years B.P. up to the present day. The emergence seems to represent a discontinuous but regular sequence of relative sea level movements without intermittent submergence. Since the deltaic fans of the early emergence period were accumulated by sediments through glacio-fluvial channels of an adjacent glacier body the appropriate location of this glacial stage for one of the glaciers delivering meltwater (Nukapingwa Glacier) could be reconstructed. This stage of the glacier appears to belong to a retreating phase of the Mid-Wisconsin (?). The later period of emergence resulted in six rather glacio-marine delta terrace generations at the mouths of the main rivers with glaciofluvial regimen debouching into the Oobloyah Bay. A connection of this emergence with the glacial history of the field area is discussed. If one may rely on the age determinations of land derived plant fossils and their application for the climatic history of the area investigated, it must be concluded that the Heidelberg Valley, to a large extent, was alreaely deglaciated 25 000 years ago. The existence of a "Cockburn"-Phase in the sense of a major readvanee in Late Wisconsin times appears to be doubtful, or has been developed rather weakly.

Chronology and petrology of sediment cor DAPC2

Evidence from paleoclimatic archives suggests that Earth's climate experienced rapid temperature changes associated with pronounced interhemispheric asymmetry during the last glacial period. Explanations for these climate excursions have converged on nonlinear interactions between ice sheets and the ocean's thermohaline circulation, but the driving mechanism remains to be identified. Here we use multidecadal marine records of faunal, oxygen isotope, and sediment proxies from the northeast Atlantic proximal to the western margins of the last glacial British Ice Sheet (BIS) to document the coupling between ice sheet dynamics, ocean circulation, and insolation changes. The core data reveal successions of short-lived (80-100 years), high-amplitude ice-rafted debris (IRD) events that were initiated up to 2000 years before the deposition of detrital carbonate during Heinrich events (HE) 1 and 2. Progressive disintegration of the BIS 19-16 kyr before present (B.P.) occurred in response to abrupt ocean-climate warmings that impinged on the northeast Atlantic during the early deglaciation. Peak IRD deposition recurs at 180-220 year intervals plausibly involving repeated breakup of glacial tidewater margins and fringing marine ice shelves. The early deglaciation culminated in a major meltwater pulse at ~16.3 kyr B.P. followed by another discharge associated with HE1 some 300 years after. We conclude that temperature changes related to external forcing and marine heat transport caused a rapid response of the BIS and possibly other margins of the Eurasian Ice Sheet. Massive but short-lived meltwater surges influenced the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation thereby contributing to North Atlantic climate variability and bipolar climatic asymmetry.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, length and survival of Inland silverside, Menidia beryllina, during experiments, 2012

Absorption of anthropogenic carbon dioxide by the world's oceans is causing mankind's 'other CO2 problem', ocean acidification. Although this process will challenge marine organisms that synthesize calcareous exoskeletons or shells, it is unclear how it will affect internally calcifying organisms, such as marine fish. Adult fish tolerate short-term exposures to CO2 levels that exceed those predicted for the next 300 years (~2,000 ppm), but potential effects of increased CO2 on growth and survival during the early life stages of fish remain poorly understood. Here we show that the exposure of early life stages of a common estuarine fish (Menidia beryllina) to CO2 concentrations expected in the world's oceans later this century caused severely reduced survival and growth rates. When compared with present-day CO2 levels (~400 ppm), exposure of M. beryllina embryos to ~1,000 ppm until one week post-hatch reduced average survival and length by 74% and 18%, respectively. The egg stage was significantly more vulnerable to high CO2-induced mortality than the post-hatch larval stage. These findings challenge the belief that ocean acidification will not affect fish populations, because even small changes in early life survival can generate large fluctuations in adult-fish abundance.

Impacts of ocean acidification on sediment processes in shallow waters of the arctic ocean

Despite the important roles of shallow-water sediments in global biogeochemical cycling, the effects of ocean acidification on sedimentary processes have received relatively little attention. As high-latitude cold waters can absorb more CO2 and usually have a lower buffering capacity than warmer waters, acidification rates in these areas are faster than those in sub-tropical regions. The present study investigates the effects of ocean acidification on sediment composition, processes and sediment-water fluxes in an Arctic coastal system. Undisturbed sediment cores, exempt of large dwelling organisms, were collected, incubated for a period of 14 days, and subject to a gradient of pCO2 covering the range of values projected for the end of the century. On five occasions during the experimental period, the sediment cores were isolated for flux measurements (oxygen, alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, ammonium, nitrate, nitrite, phosphate and silicate). At the end of the experimental period, denitrification rates were measured and sediment samples were taken at several depth intervals for solid-phase analyses. Most of the parameters and processes (i.e. mineralization, denitrification) investigated showed no relationship with the overlying seawater pH, suggesting that ocean acidification will have limited impacts on the microbial activity and associated sediment-water fluxes on Arctic shelves, in the absence of active bio-irrigating organisms. Only following a pH decrease of 1 pH unit, not foreseen in the coming 300 years, significant enhancements of calcium carbonate dissolution and anammox rates were observed. Longer-term experiments on different sediment types are still required to confirm the limited impact of ocean acidification on shallow Arctic sediment processes as observed in this study.

SolarPaces 2013: Innovations on direct steam generation in linear fresnel collectors

Direct Steam Generation (DSG) in Linear Fresnel (LF) solar collectors is being consolidated as a feasible technology for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. The competitiveness of this technology relies on the following main features: water as heat transfer fluid (HTF) in Solar Field (SF), obtaining high superheated steam temperatures and pressures at turbine inlet (500ºC and 90 bar), no heat tracing required to avoid HTF freezing, no HTF degradation, no environmental impacts, any heat exchanger between SF and Balance Of Plant (BOP), and low cost installation and maintenance. Regarding to LF solar collectors, were recently developed as an alternative to Parabolic Trough Collector (PTC) technology. The main advantages of LF are: the reduced collector manufacturing cost and maintenance, linear mirrors shapes versus parabolic mirror, fixed receiver pipes (no ball joints reducing leaking for high pressures), lower susceptibility to wind damages, and light supporting structures allowing reduced driving devices. Companies as Novatec, Areva, Solar Euromed, etc., are investing in LF DSG technology and constructing different pilot plants to demonstrate the benefits and feasibility of this solution for defined locations and conditions (Puerto Errado 1 and 2 in Murcia Spain, Lidellin Newcastle Australia, Kogran Creek in South West Queensland Australia, Kimberlina in Bakersfield California USA, Llo Solar in Pyrénées France,Dhursar in India,etc). There are several critical decisions that must be taken in order to obtain a compromise and optimization between plant performance, cost, and durability. Some of these decisions go through the SF design: proper thermodynamic operational parameters, receiver material selection for high pressures, phase separators and recirculation pumps number and location, pipes distribution to reduce the amount of tubes (reducing possible leaks points and transient time, etc.), etc. Attending to these aspects, the correct design parameters selection and its correct assessment are the main target for designing DSG LF power plants. For this purpose in the recent few years some commercial software tools were developed to simulatesolar thermal power plants, the most focused on LF DSG design are Thermoflex and System Advisor Model (SAM). Once the simulation tool is selected,it is made the study of the proposed SFconfiguration that constitutes the main innovation of this work, and also a comparison with one of the most typical state-of-the-art configuration. The transient analysis must be simulated with high detail level, mainly in the BOP during start up, shut down, stand by, and partial loads are crucial, to obtain the annual plant performance. An innovative SF configurationwas proposed and analyzed to improve plant performance. Finally it was demonstrated thermal inertia and BOP regulation mode are critical points in low sun irradiation day plant behavior, impacting in annual performance depending on power plant location.