Exploratory Space-Time Analyses of Rift Valley Fever in South Africa in 2008-2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis for which the primary hosts are domestic livestock (cattle, sheep and goats). RVF was first described in South Africa in 1950-1951. Mechanisms for short and long distance transmission have been hypothesised, but there is little supporting evidence. Here we describe RVF occurrence and spatial distribution in South Africa in 2008-11, and investigate the presence of a contagious process in order to generate hypotheses on the different mechanisms of transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings: A total of 658 cases were extracted from World Animal Health Information Database. Descriptive statistics, epidemic curves and maps were produced. The space-time K-function was used to test for evidence of space-time interaction. Five RVF outbreak waves (one in 2008, two in 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011) of varying duration, location and size were reported. About 70% of cases (n = 471) occurred in 2010, when the epidemic was almost country-wide. No strong evidence of space-time interaction was found for 2008 or the second wave in 2009. In the first wave of 2009, a significant space-time interaction was detected for up to one month and over 40 km. In 2010 and 2011 a significant intense, short and localised space-time interaction (up to 3 days and 15 km) was detected, followed by one of lower intensity (up to 2 weeks and 35 to 90 km). Conclusions/Significance: The description of the spatiotemporal patterns of RVF in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 supports the hypothesis that during an epidemic, disease spread may be supported by factors other than active vector dispersal. Limitations of under-reporting and space-time K-function properties are discussed. Further spatial analyses and data are required to explain factors and mechanisms driving RVF spread. © 2012 Métras et al.

Transmission Potential of Rift Valley Fever virus over the course of the 2010 epidemic in South Africa

A Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic affecting animals on domestic livestock farms was reported in South Africa during January-August 2010. The first cases occurred after heavy rainfall, and the virus subsequently spread countrywide. To determine the possible effect of environmental conditions and vaccination on RVF virus transmissibility, we estimated the effective reproduction number (R) for the virus over the course of the epidemic by extending the Wallinga and Teunis algorithm with spatial information. Re reached its highest value in mid-February and fell below unity around mid-March, when vaccination coverage was 7.5%-45.7% and vector-suitable environmental conditions were maintained. The epidemic fade-out likely resulted first from the immunization of animals following natural infection or vaccination. The decline in vector-suitable environmental conditions from April onwards and further vaccination helped maintain R below unity. Increased availability of vaccine use data would enable evaluation of the effect of RVF vaccination campaigns.

Gli strumenti di programmazione degli enti locali. Una fotografia della realtà emiliano-romagnola

MOTIVAZIONI DI PARTENZA Gli studi sul processo di aziendalizzazione delle pubbliche amministrazioni (Hood 1991, Mussari 1994, Valotti 2000) hanno evidenziato che esse possono essere considerate aziende per tre ragioni: istituzionale, costitutiva e comportamentale (Deidda Gagliardo 2002). In particolare, gli enti locali che intendano agire come aziende dovrebbero adottare sistemi (Bertini 1990) di programmazione e controllo (D’Alessio 1992, Borgonovi 2005), funzionali ad un miglioramento delle performances economico-sociali (Anselmi 1993, Farneti 2004). Il presente lavoro è incentrato sul sub-sistema di programmazione delle amministrazioni territoriali: si focalizza l’attenzione sugli enti locali emiliano-romagnoli in quanto caratterizzati da un buon livello di aziendalizzazione (Orelli 2005). RISULTATI ATTESI L’analisi verterà sugli strumenti di programmazione utilizzati dagli enti in oggetto e sui rapporti -orizzontali e verticali (Deidda Gagliardo 2007)- intercorrenti tra gli stessi, mirando a verificarne livello e modalità di applicazione. Lo studio partirà dai risultati della ricerca “Il contributo dei sistemi di programmazione e controllo alla governance locale in Emilia-Romagna”, coordinata dal Prof. Deidda Gagliardo e condotta, rispetto all’universo di 350 enti potenziali, sul campione delle 178 amministrazioni che hanno risposto, rappresentativo di tutte le fasce dimensionali e di tutte le zone geografiche della regione. Tale ricerca, chiusa a fine 2007, ha indagato l’arco temporale 1996 - 2006. Dall’analisi dei dati ci si attende che tutti gli enti osservati adottino gli strumenti di programmazione “obbligatori”, e che l’utilizzo di quelli “facoltativi” sia circoscritto a quelli più virtuosi. La metodologia di ricerca è di tipo misto: • fase deduttiva: sono stati studiati i principali contributi teorici; • fase induttiva: è stato somministrato un questionario strutturato a risposte chiuse ai responsabili dei servizi finanziari; • fase di feedback: si procederà all’analisi critica dei risultati al fine di verificare livello e modalità di utilizzo degli strumenti di programmazione.

Sequence stratigraphy related distribution of diagenetic alterations In Miocene deltaic and shoreface arenites, the Suez Rift, EGYPT.

The distribution of eogenetic alterations in shoreface-offshore and coarse-grained deltaic, calcarenite to hybrid arenites of the Mheiherrat Formation (lower Rudeis), Early Miocene, the Gulf of Suez, Egypt) can be constrained within a sequence stratigraphic framework. The bioclast-rich, shoreface (trangressive systems tract; TST) and shoreface (highstand systems tract; HST) arenites, particularly those below the parasequence boundaries and maximum flooding surface, are cemented by grain-coating microcrystalline, circumgranular isopacheous acicular and columnar, and coarse-crystalline calcite (δ18OVPDB = -3.6 to -0.3 ‰; δ13CVPDB = -2.3 to -0.7 ‰), non-Ferro an dolomite (δ18OVPDB = -3.9 to +0.9‰; δ13CVPDB = -2.5 ‰ to -0.7 ‰), and pyrite. Zeolite, palygorskite and gypsum occur in the HST shoreface arenites, being enhanced by aird climatic condations. The coarse-grained deltaic LST deposits are pervasively cemented by coarse-crystalline, pore-filling calcite and small amounts of microcrystalline calcite (δ18OVPDB = -4.4 to -2.3 ‰; δ13CVPDB = -2.8 to -1.3 ‰) and non-ferroan dolomite (δ18OVPDB = -4.8 to -2.5 ‰; δ13CVPDB = -3.3 to -1.5 ‰). Thus, this study demonstrates that changes in pore-water chemistry, which induced changes in the texture, composition and extent of cementation in the Miocene arenites was controlled by changes in the relative sea level and by the paleo-climatic conditions during deposition of the HST arenites.

Sequence stratigraphy related distribution of diagenetic alterations In Miocene deltaic and shoreface arenites, the Suez Rift, EGYPT.. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264545153_Sequence_stratigraphy_related_distribution_of_diagenetic_alterations_In_Miocene_deltaic_and_shoreface_arenites_the_Suez_Rift_EGYPT [accessed Apr 15, 2015].

Podoconiosis in the Ethiopian Rift Valley - Role of beryllium and zirconium

A geogenic origin has been proposed in the aetiology of non-filarial elephantiasis of the feet and legs, recently renamed podoconiosis. Soil collected in an area of the Ethiopian Rift Valley, the borough of Ocholo, known for its high prevalence of podoconiosis (5.06%), has been submitted to mineral analysis. High values of sulphur (S), cerium (Ce), lanthanum (La) and neodymium (Nd), typical for basaltic bedrocks, were found. Of special interest were the values for zirconium (Zr) and beryllium (Be), 618 +/- 87 ppm and 4.6 +/- 0.5 ppm respectively, twice as high as those recorded for soils sampled in neighbouring areas where the prevalence of podoconiosis is low. To be noted also, a high content in vanadium, above 250 ppm, in half of the soil samples collected in this region. Year-long exposure of unprotected feet to Zr and Be, known for their ability to induce granuloma formation in the lymphoid tissue of man, and present in a clay rich in colloidal silica particle, highly abrasive to skin, is doubtlessly a factor involved in the development of lymph node sclerosis leading to elephantiasis.

Dolphins leap lampposts.

Antología de poemas. Cuenta con la mejor obra de tres poetas: Ian Souter, Eric Finney y Dave Calder.

Paseando por el Rift africano.

Programa emitido el 18 de abril de 1996