Uma alternativa de análise de viabilidade para as siderúrgicas brasileiras

Este estudo tem por objetivo demonstrar a eficácia da aplicação da Teoria das Opções Reais em empresas siderúrgicas brasileiras. Para tal fim, os seguintes itens são introduzidos e discutidos nesta dissertação: (a) Princípios e critérios da Teoria das Opções Reais e do tradicional método de análise por Fluxo de Caixa Descontados. (b) Características de um investimento siderúrgico. (c) Desenvolvimento do modelo binomial para a aplicação da Teoria das Opções Reais. (d) Exemplos numéricos demonstrando o potencial da Teoria das Opções Reais. o estudo conclui que a Teoria das Opções Reais é perfeitamente aplicável em casos de siderurgia, e que este método amplia e flexibiliza as decisões administrativas em comparação ao tradicional método de análise por Fluxo de Caixa Descontado.

Flexibilidade na utilização de diesel ou biodiesel: uma abordagem utilizando a teoria de opções reais

Este trabalho aborda o desenvolvimento do Biodiesel como combustível de fontes renováveis na matriz energética brasileira. Em especial será abordada a flexibilidade de utilização entre o Diesel tradicional de origem petrolífera e o Biodiesel de origem vegetal. Será feita a avaliação do valor da flexibilidade de um equipamento com motor ciclo diesel quando da possibilidade de utilização de Diesel mineral ou Biodiesel. A valoração da flexibilidade operacional será feita utilizando a Teoria de Opções Reais. Por fim, será comentado o potencial de ganho no agregado para um país como o Brasil, com um modal de transportes predominantemente rodoviário movido a Diesel.

Avaliação de projetos de mineração utilizando a teoria das opções reais em tempo discreto : um estudo de caso em mineração de ferro

Estudo da teoria das opções reais que incorpora à avaliação de projetos de investimentos, as opções de crescimento e as flexibilidades gerenciais que surgem devido às incertezas existentes no ambiente no qual as empresas operam. Aborda os métodos tradicionais de avaliação de investimentos baseados no fluxo de caixa descontado (FCD), destaca as suas vantagens e limitações; a teoria das opções reais mostrando suas vantagens em relação aos métodos tradicionais; e um estudo de caso. Tem como objetivo principal apresentar que a teoria das opções reais é viável e complementar aos métodos tradicionais de avaliação de investimentos na indústria de mineração de ferro, com a abordagem da avaliação em tempo discreto. Este método permite especificar o problema de análise e resolvê-lo com o uso de programa de software de análise de decisão disponível no mercado de forma mais simples e mais intuitivo que os métodos tradicionais de avaliação de opções reais e permite maior flexibilidade na modelagem do problema de avaliação. A modelagem das opções reais do projeto baseia-se no uso de árvore de decisão binomial para modelar o processo estocástico. A avaliação é realizada em quatro passos de acordo com a metodologia proposta por Copeland e Antikarov (2001) e Brandão e Dyer (2005): modelagem do ativo básico, ou seja, cálculo do valor presente líquido sem flexibilidade; criação do modelo binomial utilizando o software computacional para modelar o ativo básico, computando as probabilidades neutras a risco; modelagem das opções reais no projeto; e resolução da árvore binomial, ou seja, análise das opções reais. Os resultados apresentados demonstram que é possível implementar a abordagem da avaliação de opções reais em projetos de investimentos na indústria de mineração de ferro.

Opções reais em projetos de investimentos: o caso de uma planta de liquefação de gás natural com flexibilidade de troca de mercado e de troca de produto

O objetivo deste trabalho é revisar os principais aspectos teóricos para a aplicação de Opções Reais em avaliação de projetos de investimento e analisar, sob esta metodologia, um caso real de projeto para investir na construção de uma Planta de Liquefação de gás natural. O estudo do caso real considerou a Opção de Troca de Mercado, ao avaliar a possibilidade de colocação de cargas spot de GNL em diferentes mercados internacionais e a Opção de Troca de Produto, devido à flexibilidade gerencial de não liquefazer o gás natural, deixando de comercializar GNL no mercado internacional e passando a vender gás natural seco no mercado doméstico. Para a valoração das Opções Reais foi verificado, através da série histórica dos preços de gás natural, que o Movimento Geométrico Browniano não é rejeitado e foram utilizadas simulações de Monte Carlo do processo estocástico neutro ao risco dos preços. O valor da Opção de Troca de Mercado fez o projeto estudado mais que dobrar de valor, sendo reduzido com o aumento da correlação dos preços. Por outro lado, o valor da Opção de Troca de Produto é menos relevante, mas também pode atingir valores significativos com o incremento de sua volatilidade. Ao combinar as duas opções simultaneamente, foi verificado que as mesmas não são diretamente aditivas e que o efeito do incremento da correlação dos preços, ao contrário do que ocorre na Opção de Troca de Mercado, é inverso na Opção de Troca de Produto, ou seja, o derivativo aumenta de valor com uma maior correlação, apesar do valor total das opções integradas diminuir.

Aplicação de opções reais para avaliar uma aquisição de empresa do setor imobiliário brasileiro: estudo de caso

Este trabalho teve como objetivo mensurar, através da metodologia de opções reais, o valor de opções e do método de pagamento definidos no contrato de aquisição de uma companhia.

Estimação do desconto de reequilíbrio ótimo em concessões rodoviárias através da metodologia das opções reais

Este trabalho propõe um novo modelo para avaliação, em tempo discreto, do desconto de reequilíbrio em contratos de concessão rodoviária, a partir de conceitos da Teoria Clássica de Finanças e da Teoria de Opções Reais. O modelo desenvolvido permitiu incorporar flexibilidades decorrentes de incertezas nas situações reais, como decisões gerenciais, vieses de comportamento e componentes políticos, comumente presentes em contratos de concessões rodoviária. Os resultados obtidos, utilizando-se como estudo de caso a BR-262, sinalizaram que há espaço para uma melhor intervenção regulatória com relação ao mecanismo do desconto de reequilíbrio, no sentido de prover melhores incentivos aos concessionários.

Technology acquisition through licensing. Implications for firm strategy

Nowadays licensing practices have increased in importance and relevance driving the widespread diffusion of markets for technologies. Firms are shifting from a tactical to a strategic attitude towards licensing, addressing both business and corporate level objectives. The Open Innovation Paradigm has been embraced. Firms rely more and more on collaboration and external sourcing of knowledge. This new model of innovation requires firms to leverage on external technologies to unlock the potential of firms’ internal innovative efforts. In this context, firms’ competitive advantage depends both on their ability to recognize available opportunities inside and outside their boundaries and on their readiness to exploit them in order to fuel their innovation process dynamically. Licensing is one of the ways available to firm to ripe the advantages associated to an open attitude in technology strategy. From the licensee’s point view this implies challenging the so-called not-invented-here syndrome, affecting the more traditional firms that emphasize the myth of internal research and development supremacy. This also entails understanding the so-called cognitive constraints affecting the perfect functioning of markets for technologies that are associated to the costs for the assimilation, integration and exploitation of external knowledge by recipient firms. My thesis aimed at shedding light on new interesting issues associated to in-licensing activities that have been neglected by the literature on licensing and markets for technologies. The reason for this gap is associated to the “perspective bias” affecting the works within this stream of research. With very few notable exceptions, they have been generally concerned with the investigation of the so-called licensing dilemma of the licensor – whether to license out or to internally exploit the in-house developed technologies, while neglecting the licensee’s perspective. In my opinion, this has left rooms for improving the understanding of the determinants and conditions affecting licensing-in practices. From the licensee’s viewpoint, the licensing strategy deals with the search, integration, assimilation, exploitation of external technologies. As such it lies at the very hearth of firm’s technology strategy. Improving our understanding of this strategy is thus required to assess the full implications of in-licensing decisions as they shape firms’ innovation patterns and technological capabilities evolution. It also allow for understanding the so-called cognitive constraints associated to the not-invented-here syndrome. In recognition of that, the aim of my work is to contribute to the theoretical and empirical literature explaining the determinants of the licensee’s behavior, by providing a comprehensive theoretical framework as well as ad-hoc conceptual tools to understand and overcome frictions and to ease the achievement of satisfactory technology transfer agreements in the marketplace. Aiming at this, I investigate licensing-in in three different fashions developed in three research papers. In the first work, I investigate the links between licensing and the patterns of firms’ technological search diversification according to the framework of references of the Search literature, Resource-based Theory and the theory of general purpose technologies. In the second paper - that continues where the first one left off – I analyze the new concept of learning-bylicensing, in terms of development of new knowledge inside the licensee firms (e.g. new patents) some years after the acquisition of the license, according to the Dynamic Capabilities perspective. Finally, in the third study, Ideal with the determinants of the remuneration structure of patent licenses (form and amount), and in particular on the role of the upfront fee from the licensee’s perspective. Aiming at this, I combine the insights of two theoretical approaches: agency and real options theory.

Corporate Venture Capital: How established firms use external resources to create new competencies

This Doctoral Dissertation is triggered by an emergent trend: firms are increasingly referring to investments in corporate venture capital (CVC) as means to create new competencies and foster the search for competitive advantage through the use of external resources. CVC is generally defined as the practice by non-financial firms of placing equity investments in entrepreneurial companies. Thus, CVC can be interpreted (i) as a key component of corporate entrepreneurship - acts of organizational creation, renewal, or innovation that occur within or outside an existing organization– and (ii) as a particular form of venture capital (VC) investment where the investor is not a traditional and financial institution, but an established corporation. My Dissertation, thus, simultaneously refers to two streams of research: corporate strategy and venture capital. In particular, I directed my attention to three topics of particular relevance for better understanding the role of CVC. In the first study, I moved from the consideration that competitive environments with rapid technological changes increasingly force established corporations to access knowledge from external sources. Firms, thus, extensively engage in external business development activities through different forms of collaboration with partners. While the underlying process common to these mechanisms is one of knowledge access, they are substantially different. The aim of the first study is to figure out how corporations choose among CVC, alliance, joint venture and acquisition. I addressed this issue adopting a multi-theoretical framework where the resource-based view and real options theory are integrated. While the first study mainly looked into the use of external resources for corporate growth, in the second work, I combined an internal and an external perspective to figure out the relationship between CVC investments (exploiting external resources) and a more traditional strategy to create competitive advantage, that is, corporate diversification (based on internal resources). Adopting an explorative lens, I investigated how these different modes to renew corporate current capabilities interact to each other. More precisely, is CVC complementary or substitute to corporate diversification? Finally, the third study focused on the more general field of VC to investigate (i) how VC firms evaluate the patent portfolios of their potential investee companies and (ii) whether the ability to evaluate technology and intellectual property varies depending on the type of investors, in particular for what concern the distinction between specialized versus generalist VCs and independent versus corporate VCs. This topic is motivated by two observations. First, it is not clear yet which determinants of patent value are primarily considered by VCs in their investment decisions. Second, VCs are not all alike in terms of technological experiences and these differences need to be taken into account.

Applications of infrared thermography in the food industry

In the last 20-30 years, the implementation of new technologies from the research centres to the food industry process was very fast. The infrared thermography is a tool used in many fields, including agriculture and food science technology, because of it's important qualities like non-destructive method, it is fast, it is accurate, it is repeatable and economical. Almost all the industrial food processors have to use the thermal process to obtain an optimal product respecting the quality and safety standards. The control of temperature of food products during the production, transportation, storage and sales is an essential process in the food industry network. This tool can minimize the human error during the control of heat operation, and reduce the costs with personal. In this thesis the application of infrared thermography (IRT) was studies for different products that need a thermal process during the food processing. The background of thermography was presented, and also some of its applications in food industry, with the benefits and limits of applicability. The measurement of the temperature of the egg shell during the heat treatment in natural convection and with hot-air treatment was compared with the calculated temperatures obtained by a simplified finite element model made in the past. The complete process shown a good results between calculated and observed temperatures and we can say that this technique can be useful to control the heat treatments for decontamination of egg using the infrared thermography. Other important application of IRT was to determine the evolution of emissivity of potato raw during the freezing process and the control non-destructive control of this process. We can conclude that the IRT can represent a real option for the control of thermal process from the food industry, but more researches on various products are necessary.

Microprocesos láser para la mejora de dispositivos fotovoltaicos basados en silicio cristalino

En los últimos años la tecnología láser se ha convertido en una herramienta imprescindible en la fabricación de dispositivos fotovoltaicos, ayudando a la consecución de dos objetivos claves para que esta opción energética se convierta en una alternativa viable: reducción de costes de fabricación y aumento de eficiencia de dispositivo. Dentro de las tecnologías fotovoltaicas, las basadas en silicio cristalino (c-Si) siguen siendo las dominantes en el mercado, y en la actualidad los esfuerzos científicos en este campo se encaminan fundamentalmente a conseguir células de mayor eficiencia a un menor coste encontrándose, como se comentaba anteriormente, que gran parte de las soluciones pueden venir de la mano de una mayor utilización de tecnología láser en la fabricación de los mismos. En este contexto, esta Tesis hace un estudio completo y desarrolla, hasta su aplicación en dispositivo final, tres procesos láser específicos para la optimización de dispositivos fotovoltaicos de alta eficiencia basados en silicio. Dichos procesos tienen como finalidad la mejora de los contactos frontal y posterior de células fotovoltaicas basadas en c-Si con vistas a mejorar su eficiencia eléctrica y reducir el coste de producción de las mismas. En concreto, para el contacto frontal se han desarrollado soluciones innovadoras basadas en el empleo de tecnología láser en la metalización y en la fabricación de emisores selectivos puntuales basados en técnicas de dopado con láser, mientras que para el contacto posterior se ha trabajado en el desarrollo de procesos de contacto puntual con láser para la mejora de la pasivación del dispositivo. La consecución de dichos objetivos ha llevado aparejado el alcanzar una serie de hitos que se resumen continuación: - Entender el impacto de la interacción del láser con los distintos materiales empleados en el dispositivo y su influencia sobre las prestaciones del mismo, identificando los efectos dañinos e intentar mitigarlos en lo posible. - Desarrollar procesos láser que sean compatibles con los dispositivos que admiten poca afectación térmica en el proceso de fabricación (procesos a baja temperatura), como los dispositivos de heterounión. - Desarrollar de forma concreta procesos, completamente parametrizados, de definición de dopado selectivo con láser, contactos puntuales con láser y metalización mediante técnicas de transferencia de material inducida por láser. - Definir tales procesos de forma que reduzcan la complejidad de la fabricación del dispositivo y que sean de fácil integración en una línea de producción. - Mejorar las técnicas de caracterización empleadas para verificar la calidad de los procesos, para lo que ha sido necesario adaptar específicamente técnicas de caracterización de considerable complejidad. - Demostrar su viabilidad en dispositivo final. Como se detalla en el trabajo, la consecución de estos hitos en el marco de desarrollo de esta Tesis ha permitido contribuir a la fabricación de los primeros dispositivos fotovoltaicos en España que incorporan estos conceptos avanzados y, en el caso de la tecnología de dopado con láser, ha permitido hacer avances completamente novedosos a nivel mundial. Asimismo los conceptos propuestos de metalización con láser abren vías, completamente originales, para la mejora de los dispositivos considerados. Por último decir que este trabajo ha sido posible por una colaboración muy estrecha entre el Centro Láser de la UPM, en el que la autora desarrolla su labor, y el Grupo de Investigación en Micro y Nanotecnologías de la Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña, encargado de la preparación y puesta a punto de las muestras y del desarrollo de algunos procesos láser para comparación. También cabe destacar la contribución de del Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas, CIEMAT, en la preparación de experimentos específicos de gran importancia en el desarrollo del trabajo. Dichas colaboraciones se han desarrollado en el marco de varios proyectos, tales como el proyecto singular estratégico PSE-MICROSIL08 (PSE-iv 120000-2006-6), el proyecto INNDISOL (IPT-420000-2010-6), ambos financiados por el Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional FEDER (UE) “Una manera de hacer Europa” y el MICINN, y el proyecto del Plan Nacional AMIC (ENE2010-21384-C04-02), cuya financiación ha permitido en gran parte llevar a término este trabajo. v ABSTRACT. Last years lasers have become a fundamental tool in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, helping this technology to achieve two major goals: cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Among the present PV technologies, crystalline silicon (c-Si) maintains a clear market supremacy and, in this particular field, the technological efforts are focussing into the improvement of the device efficiency using different approaches (reducing for instance the electrical or optical losses in the device) and the cost reduction in the device fabrication (using less silicon in the final device or implementing more cost effective production steps). In both approaches lasers appear ideally suited tools to achieve the desired success. In this context, this work makes a comprehensive study and develops, until their implementation in a final device, three specific laser processes designed for the optimization of high efficiency PV devices based in c-Si. Those processes are intended to improve the front and back contact of the considered solar cells in order to reduce the production costs and to improve the device efficiency. In particular, to improve the front contact, this work has developed innovative solutions using lasers as fundamental processing tools to metalize, using laser induced forward transfer techniques, and to create local selective emitters by means of laser doping techniques. On the other side, and for the back contact, and approached based in the optimization of standard laser fired contact formation has been envisaged. To achieve these fundamental goals, a number of milestones have been reached in the development of this work, namely: - To understand the basics of the laser-matter interaction physics in the considered processes, in order to preserve the functionality of the irradiated materials. - To develop laser processes fully compatible with low temperature device concepts (as it is the case of heterojunction solar cells). - In particular, to parameterize completely processes of laser doping, laser fired contacts and metallization via laser transfer of material. - To define such a processes in such a way that their final industrial implementation could be a real option. - To improve widely used characterization techniques in order to be applied to the study of these particular processes. - To probe their viability in a final PV device. Finally, the achievement of these milestones has brought as a consequence the fabrication of the first devices in Spain incorporating these concepts. In particular, the developments achieved in laser doping, are relevant not only for the Spanish science but in a general international context, with the introduction of really innovative concepts as local selective emitters. Finally, the advances reached in the laser metallization approached presented in this work open the door to future developments, fully innovative, in the field of PV industrial metallization techniques. This work was made possible by a very close collaboration between the Laser Center of the UPM, in which the author develops his work, and the Research Group of Micro y Nanotecnology of the Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña, in charge of the preparation and development of samples and the assessment of some laser processes for comparison. As well is important to remark the collaboration of the Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas, CIEMAT, in the preparation of specific experiments of great importance in the development of the work. These collaborations have been developed within the framework of various projects such as the PSE-MICROSIL08 (PSE-120000-2006-6), the project INNDISOL (IPT-420000-2010-6), both funded by the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional FEDER (UE) “Una manera de hacer Europa” and the MICINN, and the project AMIC (ENE2010-21384-C04-02), whose funding has largely allowed to complete this work.

Unit Root Analysis of Traffic Time Series in Toll Highways

Concession contracts in highways often include some kind of clauses (for example, a minimum traffic guarantee) that allow for better management of the business risks. The value of these clauses may be important and should be added to the total value of the concession. However, in these cases, traditional valuation techniques, like the NPV (net present value) of the project, are insufficient. An alternative methodology for the valuation of highway concession is one based on the real options approach. This methodology is generally built on the assumption of the evolution of traffic volume as a GBM (geometric Brownian motion), which is the hypothesis analyzed in this paper. First, a description of the methodology used for the analysis of the existence of unit roots (i.e., the hypothesis of non-stationarity) is provided. The Dickey-Fuller approach has been used, which is the most common test for this kind of analysis. Then this methodology is applied to perform a statistical analysis of traffic series in Spanish toll highways. For this purpose, data on the AADT (annual average daily traffic) on a set of highways have been used. The period of analysis is around thirty years in most cases. The main outcome of the research is that the hypothesis that traffic volume follows a GBM process in Spanish toll highways cannot be rejected. This result is robust, and therefore it can be used as a starting point for the application of the real options theory to assess toll highway concessions.

Business Value of IT Investment: The Case of a Low Cost Airline’s Website

Using the case of a low cost airline company’s website we analyze some special research questions of information technology valuation. The distinctive characteristics of this research are the ex post valuation perspective; the parallel and comparative use of accounting and business valuation approaches; and the integrated application of discounted cash flow and real option valuation. As the examined international company is a strategic user of e-technology and wants to manage and account intangible IT-assets explicitly, these specific valuation perspectives are gaining practical significance.

Speciális kockázatok és kockázatkezelés a kockázatitőke-finanszírozásban (The special risks and risk management of venture capital)

A tanulmányban a szerzők arra a kérdésre keresik a választ, hogy az aszimmetrikus információk hatására a vállalkozók és a befektetők között kialakuló megbízó-ügynök viszonynak melyek a speciális vetületei a kockázatitőke-finanszírozás vonatkozásában. A szerzők arra a következtetésre jutottak, hogy a hiányos információk, a megbízó-ügynök viszony, illetve az ügyletek speciális jellege miatt fokozottan jelentkező ügynökprobléma kezelésére a kockázatitőke-finanszírozás szereplői speciális kockázatkezelési technikákat alkalmaznak. Ilyenek a magas elvárt hozamok, a szigorú kiválasztási kritériumok, a speciális befektetési vagy szindikátusi szerződések, a befektetést követő monitoring tevékenység, a több lépcsőben történő finanszírozás és a portfólióvállalatok hálózatba szervezése. A speciális kockázati megközelítés következtében a befektetéseket opciós szemlélet is áthatja. _____ This paper focuses on the special aspects of imperfect information in case of venture capital financing including principal-agent relationship between entrepreneurs and investors as well as adverse selection that evolves as a result of information asymmetries. The authors’ finding is that venture capital is able to manage the problems caused by imperfect information via applying divers risk management techniques such as high profit expectations, scrutiny of portfolio-companies, the use of special contracting stipulations and syndicate agreements, the monitoring of investments, multi-staged financing of companies and the integration of portfolio-companies into networks. In addition to the risk management techniques the authors also give the interpretation of the unique attitude of venture capital toward uncertainty and its special real option-like risk valuation approach that makes venture capitalists capable of handling high uncertainty under imperfect information.

Corporate cash-pool valuation in a multi-firm context: a closed formula

Following our earlier paper on the subject, we present a general closed formula to value the interest savings due to a multi-firm cash-pool system. Assuming normal distribution of the accounts the total savings can be expressed as the product of three independent factors representing the interest spread, the number and the correlation of the firms, and the time-dependent distribution of the cash accounts. We derive analytic results for two special processes one characterizing the initial build-up period and the other describing the mature period. The value gained in the stationary system can be thought of as the interest, paid at the net interest spread rate on the standard deviation of the account. We show that pooling has substantial value already in the transient period. In order to increase the practical relevance of our analysis we discuss possible extensions of our model and we show how real option pricing technics can be applied here.

Essays of strategic alliance portfolio configuration—Its performance properties, strategic antecedents and consequential effects on multinational firms' continuing foreign expansion

This dissertation focused on an increasingly prevalent phenomenon in today's global business environment—strategic alliance portfolio. Building on resource-based view, resource dependency theory and real options theory, this dissertation adopted a multi-dimensional perspective to examine the performance implications, strategic antecedents of alliance portfolio configuration, and its strategic effects on firms' decision-making on their continuing foreign expansion. The dissertation consisted of three interrelated essays, each of which dealt with a specific research question. In the first essay I applied a two-dimensional construct that embraces both alliance relations' and alliance partners' attributes to illustrate alliance portfolio configuration. Based on this framework, a longitudinal study was conducted attempting to explore the performance properties of alliance portfolio configuration. The results revealed that alliance diversity and partner diversity have different relative contributions to firms' economic performance. The relationship between alliance portfolio configuration and firm performance was shaped by degree of multinationality in a curvilinear pattern. The second essay attempted to identify the firm level driving forces of alliance portfolio configuration and how these forces interacting with firms' internationalization influence firms' strategic choices on alliance portfolio configuration. The empirical results indicated that past alliance experience, slack resource and firms' brand images are three critical determinants shaping alliance portfolios, but those shaping relationships are conditioned by firms' multinationality. The third essay primarily employed real options theory to build a conceptual framework, revealing how country-, alliance portfolio-, firm-, and industry level factors and their interactions influence firms' strategic decision-making on post-entry continuing expansion in foreign markets. The two empirical studies were resided in global hospitality and travel industries and use panel data to test the relevant theoretical models. Overall, the dissertation advanced and enriched the theoretical domain of alliance portfolio. It particularly shed valuable insights on three fundamental questions in the domain of alliance portfolio research, namely "if and how alliance portfolios contribute to firms' economic performance"; "what determines the appearance of alliance portfolios”; and "how alliance portfolios affect firms' strategic decision-making". This dissertation also extended the international business and strategic management research on service multinationals' foreign expansion and performance.