Forecasting real estate returns using financial spreads

This paper examines the predictability of real estate asset returns using a number of time series techniques. A vector autoregressive model, which incorporates financial spreads, is able to improve upon the out of sample forecasting performance of univariate time series models at a short forecasting horizon. However, as the forecasting horizon increases, the explanatory power of such models is reduced, so that returns on real estate assets are best forecast using the long term mean of the series. In the case of indirect property returns, such short-term forecasts can be turned into a trading rule that can generate excess returns over a buy-and-hold strategy gross of transactions costs, although none of the trading rules developed could cover the associated transactions costs. It is therefore concluded that such forecastability is entirely consistent with stock market efficiency.

Liquidity and the drivers of search, due diligence and transaction times for UK commercial real estate investments

Trading commercial real estate involves a process of exchange that is costly and which occurs over an extended and uncertain period of time. This has consequences for the performance and risk of real estate investments. Most research on transaction times has occurred for residential rather than commercial real estate. We study the time taken to transact commercial real estate assets in the UK using a sample of 578 transactions over the period 2004 to 2013. We measure average time to transact from a buyer and seller perspective, distinguishing the search and due diligence phases of the process, and we conduct econometric analysis to explain variation in due diligence times between assets. The median time for purchase of real estate from introduction to completion was 104 days and the median time for sale from marketing to completion was 135 days. There is considerable variation around these times and results suggest that some of this variation is related to market state, type and quality of asset, and type of participants involved in the transaction. Our findings shed light on the drivers of liquidity at an individual asset level and can inform models that quantify the impact of uncertain time on market on real estate investment risk.

The blended approach to real estate allocations: performance implications of combining an exposure to German Spezialfonds with Global Listed Real Estate Securities

This paper seeks to increase the understanding of the performance implications for investors who choose to combine an unlisted real estate portfolio (in this case German Spezialfonds) with a (global) listed real estate element. We call this a “blended” approach to real estate allocations. For the avoidance of doubt, in this paper we are dealing purely with real estate equity (listed and unlisted) allocations, and do not incorporate real estate debt (listed or unlisted) or direct property into the process. A previous paper (Moss and Farrelly 2014) showed the benefits of the blended approach as it applied to UK Defined Contribution Pension Schemes. The catalyst for this paper has been the recent attention focused on German pension fund allocations, which have a relatively low (real estate) equity content, and a high bond content. We have used the MSCI Spezialfonds Index as a proxy for domestic German institutional real estate allocations, and the EPRA Global Developed Index as a proxy for a global listed real estate allocation. We also examine whether a rules based trading strategy, in this case Trend Following, can improve the risk adjusted returns above those of a simple buy and hold strategy for our sample period 2004-2015. Our findings are that by blending a 30% global listed portfolio with a 70% allocation (as opposed to a typical 100% weighting) to Spezialfonds, the real estate allocation returns increase from 2.88% p.a. to 5.42% pa. Volatility increases, but only to 6.53%., but there is a noticeable impact on maximum drawdown which increases to 19.4%. By using a Trend Following strategy raw returns are improved from 2.88% to 6.94% p.a. , The Sharpe Ratio increases from 1.05 to 1.49 and the Maximum Drawdown ratio is now only 1.83% compared to 19.4% using a buy and hold strategy . Finally, adding this (9%) real estate allocation to a mixed asset portfolio allocation typical for German pension funds there is an improvement in both the raw return (from 7.66% to 8.28%) and the Sharpe Ratio (from 0.91 to 0.98).

Liquidity review: dimensions, causes, measures and empirical applications in real estate markets

Liquidity is a fundamentally important facet of investments, but there is no single measure that quantifies it perfectly. Instead, a range of measures are necessary to capture different dimensions of liquidity such as the breadth and depth of markets, the costs of transacting, the speed with which transactions can occur and the resilience of prices to trading activity. This article considers how different dimensions have been measured in financial markets and for various forms of real estate investment. The purpose of this exercise is to establish the range of liquidity measures that could be used for real estate investments before considering which measures and questions have been investigated so far. Most measures reviewed here are applicable to public real estate, but not all can be applied to private real estate assets or funds. Use of a broader range of liquidity measures could help real estate researchers tackle issues such as quantification of illiquidity premiums for the real estate asset class or different types of real estate, and how liquidity differences might be incorporated into portfolio allocation models.

Are real exchange rates nonlinear with a unit root? Evidence on PPP for Italy : a note

In this article, we apply the recently developed threshold autoregression model to examine both linearity and stationarity of Italy's real exchange rate vis--vis her six trading partner (G6) countries. Our main finding is that Italy's real exchange rate is a nonlinear process that is not characterized by a unit root process for five of six trading partner countries. This provides strong support for purchasing power parity.

Estimating money demand functions for South Asian countries

In this paper, we estimate a money demand function for a panel of five South Asian countries. We find that the money demand and its determinants, namely real income, real exchange rate and short-term domestic and foreign interest rates are cointegrated both for individual countries as well as for the panel, and panel long-run elasticities provide robust evidence of statistically significant relationships between money demand and its determinants. Our test for panel Granger causality suggests short-run causality running from all variables, except foreign interest rate, to money demand, and we find evidence that except for Nepal money demand functions are stable.

Engagement and learning through social software in finance : the trading room experience

The introduction of a social software blog space called “The Trading Room” in an undergraduate Finance unit for an assessment task generated a great deal of activity to support student learning. A subsequent evaluation of this pilot demonstrated that students perceived high value in the opportunity it provided for them to reaffirm theories, obtain individualized feedback and benchmark their work against others. Whilst assessment is generally seen as both the carrot and the stick of learning, and certification; students in the study reported that they would still participate in reading and posting to the “Trading Room” blog even if there was no assessment requirement! Additionally they did not see any value in the environment as a purely social space, reporting that they saw it primarily as a professional educational community. It would appear that just as there are different communities in the real world social space, there are also different types of communities in the online space. Context, structure and activity design, perhaps are the most important facets of online interaction for learning.

Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary? Evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for India

The paper examines the stationarity of India’s real exchange rate vis-a` -vis 16 of its major trading partner countries for the period 1960–2000. Application of the conventional ADF unit root test, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test with one structural break, and the LM unit root test with two structural breaks provides evidence that India’s exchange rate vis-a` -vis 15 out of 16 countries is stationary, implying support for purchasing power parity.

Firms as adaptive organizations : the case of Australian trading banks

The conventional accounting notion of ‘going concern’ — that a firm will continue its business operations in the same manner indefinitely — has underpinned accounting practice for over one hundred years. This idea has provided a rationale for spreading costs over accounting periods and for deferring costs as assets in balance sheets. An alternative idea that is widely regarded as reliable in the literatures of economics and deliberate action is that firms continually adapt to changes in market and economic conditions. That is economic behaviour. The implications of that view of a firm for accounting have been systematically explored by Chambers (1966). While not examining those particular implications, many other accounting theorists have been critical of the conventional accounting idea of 'going concern' and of its impact on accounting practice. The two notions of ‘going concern’ - as static or adaptive enterprises - are examined by referring to the business operations of the four major Australian trading banks over the period 1983-1991. Banks were selected because they are commonly thought to be particularly ‘conservative’ organizations. The period 1983—1991 was chosen because it covers the era of deregulation of the Australian financial system. The evidence adduced by this study indicates that the Australian trading banks have continually adapted their organizational structures and business operations in the light of changes in technology, markets for financial services, government policies and domestic and global economic conditions. Illustrations of adaptive behaviour by banks ate drawn from their normal operating procedures such as the provision of products and services, loan services, acquisitions, sale of property, non-core banking operations and international banking. It is argued on analytical grounds that the cost basis of accounting does not yield financial statements that provide factual and up-to-date information about the financial capacity of firms to pay their debts and to continue trading generally; that is, to be going concerns. At any time, those financial capacities are determined by the amount of money commanded by a firm, including the money's worth of its assets, and by its level of debt. It is concluded on empirical grounds that the Australian trading banks, at least, are adaptive entities.

A preliminary analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program – demonstrating the potential value of comprehensive real world data

Background The complexity and cost of treating cancer patients is escalating rapidly and increasingly difficult decisions are being made regarding which interventions provide value for money. BioGrid Australia supports collection and analysis of comprehensive treatment and outcome data across multiple sites. Here we use preliminary data regarding the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) and stage-specific treatment costs for colorectal cancer (CRC) to demonstrate the potential value of real world data for cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA).

Methods Data regarding the impact of NBCSP on stage at diagnosis was combined with stage-specific CRC treatment costs and existing literature. An incremental CEA was undertaken from a government healthcare perspective, comparing NBCSP to no-screening. The 2008 invited population (n=681,915) was modelled in both scenarios. Effectiveness was expressed as CRC-related life years saved (LYS). Costs and benefits were discounted at 3% per annum.

Results Over the lifetime and relative to no-screening, NBCSP was predicted to save 1,265 life-years, prevent 225 CRC cases and cost an additional $48.3 million, equivalent to a cost-effectiveness ratio of $38,217 per LYS. A scenario analysis assuming full participation improved this to $23,395.

Conclusions This preliminary CEA based largely on contemporary real world data suggests population-based FOBT screening for CRC is attractive. Planned ongoing data collection will enable repeated analyses over time, using the same methodology in the same patient populations, permitting an accurate analysis of the impact of new therapies and changing practice. Similar CEA using real world data related to other disease types and interventions appears desirable.

Engagement and learning through social software in finance : a retrospective on the Trading Room experience

The introduction of a social software blog space called the Trading Room in an undergraduate finance unit generated a great deal of activity to support student learning. A subsequent evaluation of this innovation, viewed through the lens of Activity Theory, demonstrated that students perceived high value in the opportunity it provided for them to reaffirm theories, obtain individualised feedback and benchmark their work against others. While assessment is generally seen as the carrot and the stick of learning; students in the study reported that they would still participate in reading and posting to the Trading Room even if there was no assessment requirement. Students did not see any value in the environment as a purely social space, reporting that they saw it primarily as a professional educational community. It would appear that just as there are different communities in the real world social space, there are also different types of communities in the online space.

Queensland arts cuts: the real story

In the first part of an exclusive 3-part series, Ben Eltham exposes the machinations and implications of money and mates in Queensland's arts sector. Article investigates the behind-the-scenes policy decisions inside the Queensland government that resulted in significant funding cuts to small-to-medium cultural organsations in Queensland in late 2013.

Panel cointegration and the neutrality of money

Most econometric methods for testing the proposition of long-run monetary neutrality rely on the assumption that money and real output do not cointegrate, a result that is usually supported by the data. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that a violation of the noncointegration assumption is likely to result in a nonrejection of the neutrality proposition. To alleviate this problem, two new and more powerful panel cointegration tests are proposed that can be used under quite general conditions. The empirical results obtained from applying these tests to a panel covering ten countries between 1870 and 1986 suggest money and real output are cointegrated, and hence that the neutrality proposition must be rejected. © Springer-Verlag 2007.

Is exchange rate trading profitable?

We Test whether exchange rate trading is profitable in the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India, And South Africa. Using Momentum trading strategies applied to high frequency data, we discover that: (a) momentum-based trading strategies lead to statistically significant profits from the currencies of all four emerging markets; (b) The South African Rand Is generally the most profitable, followed by the Brazilian Real And the Indian Rupee; (c) Profits are persistent during the day and are trading frequency dependent; and (d) During the period of the global financial crisis currency profits were maximised.

Essays on competition and returns of inside money

In an early paper, Cavalcanti and Wallace (2001) showed, using a computable version of Cavalcanti-Wallace model (CW-1999), that optimal regulation induces banks to pay interests, instead of contracting the money supply in an inside money allocation. Here, we generalize CW in two fashions, assuming inside money allocations, so that banks are supposed to issue money as they find a potential producer wishing to produce. The first generalization allows for seasonality due to real shocks on preferences with persistence and for monetary policy improvement. We found an asymmetric path for interest rates when constraints matter, even when shocks are independent. The second generalization allows for bank competition, in the sense that banks can choose between two different banking nets. We proof the existence of simple stable and unstable equilibria and also verify the existence of multiple equilibria.