Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting.

Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, flood forecasters are beginning to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the effort to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Drawing on interviews and other research with operational flood forecasters from across Europe, this paper highlights a number of challenges to communicating and using ensemble flood forecasts operationally. It is shown that operational flood forecasters understand the skill, operational limitations, and informational value of EPS products in a variety of different and sometimes contradictory ways. Despite the efforts of forecasting agencies to design effective ways to communicate EPS forecasts to non-experts, operational flood forecasters were often skeptical about the ability of forecast recipients to understand or use them appropriately. It is argued that better training and closer contacts between operational flood forecasters and EPS system designers can help ensure the uncertainty represented by EPS forecasts is represented in ways that are most appropriate and meaningful for their intended consumers, but some fundamental political and institutional challenges to using ensembles, such as differing attitudes to false alarms and to responsibility for management of blame in the event of poor or mistaken forecasts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

A comparative performance analysis of TRMM 3B42 (TMPA) versions 6 and 7 for hydrological applications over Andean-Amazon river basins

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 precipitation estimates are widely used in tropical regions for hydrometeorological research. Recently, version 7 of the product was released. Major revisions to the algorithm involve the radar refl ectivity - rainfall rates relationship, surface clutter detection over high terrain, a new reference database for the passive microwave algorithm, and a higher quality gauge analysis product for monthly bias correction. To assess the impacts of the improved algorithm, we compare the version 7 and the older version 6 product with data from 263 rain gauges in and around the northern Peruvian Andes. The region covers humid tropical rainforest, tropical mountains, and arid to humid coastal plains. We and that the version 7 product has a significantly lower bias and an improved representation of the rainfall distribution. We further evaluated the performance of versions 6 and 7 products as forcing data for hydrological modelling, by comparing the simulated and observed daily streamfl ow in 9 nested Amazon river basins. We find that the improvement in the precipitation estimation algorithm translates to an increase in the model Nash-Sutcliffe effciency, and a reduction in the percent bias between the observed and simulated flows by 30 to 95%.

Investigating hydrological regimes and processes in a set of catchments with temporary waters in Mediterranean Europe

Seven catchments of diverse size in Mediterranean Europe were investigated in order to understand the main aspects of their hydrological functioning. The methods included the analysis of daily and monthly precipitation, monthly potential evapotranspiration rates, flow duration curves, rainfall runoff relationships and catchment internal data for the smaller and more instrumented catchments. The results showed that the catchments were less dry than initially considered. Only one of them was really semi-arid throughout the year. All the remaining catchments showed wet seasons when precipitation exceeded potential evapotrans-piration, allowing aquifer recharge, wet runoff generation mechanisms and relevant baseflow contribution. Nevertheless, local infiltration excess (Hortonian) overland flow was inferred during summer storms in some catchments and urban overland flow in some others. The roles of karstic groundwater, human disturbance and low winter temperatures were identified as having an important impact on the hydrological regime in some of the catchments.

A Diagnostic Assessment Of Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization For Water Resources Systems

This study contributes a rigorous diagnostic assessment of state-of-the-art multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) and highlights key advances that the water resources field can exploit to better discover the critical tradeoffs constraining our systems. This study provides the most comprehensive diagnostic assessment of MOEAs for water resources to date, exploiting more than 100,000 MOEA runs and trillions of design evaluations. The diagnostic assessment measures the effectiveness, efficiency, reliability, and controllability of ten benchmark MOEAs for a representative suite of water resources applications addressing rainfall-runoff calibration, long-term groundwater monitoring (LTM), and risk-based water supply portfolio planning. The suite of problems encompasses a range of challenging problem properties including (1) many-objective formulations with 4 or more objectives, (2) multi-modality (or false optima), (3) nonlinearity, (4) discreteness, (5) severe constraints, (6) stochastic objectives, and (7) non-separability (also called epistasis). The applications are representative of the dominant problem classes that have shaped the history of MOEAs in water resources and that will be dominant foci in the future. Recommendations are provided for which modern MOEAs should serve as tools and benchmarks in the future water resources literature.

Estimation using 18O of the water residence time in small watersheds

From the 18O hydrograph separation method, it was found that groundwater contribution is the principal component of the total discharge produced by these two catchment areas. The weighted mean of the 18O concentration in the precipitation, obtained for a four year period, was close to -6.0‰, with a variation in range of +2.3‰ to -16.3‰. For Bufalos stream water the weighted mean of 18O values during the same period (1984-1987) was -6.3‰, with a variation from -2.5‰ to -10.1‰, whereas for Paraiso this mean was -6.4‰, with extreme values of -3.1‰ and -9.8‰. From these values it was found that the amplitude damping (Ariver/Aprecipitation) was 0.41 for the Bufalos watershed and 0.36 for Paraiso. Using the appropriate equation to estimate the mean residence time of water in the subsurface reservoir of the Bufalos and Paraiso watersheds, the results of 4.3 and 5.0 months, respectively, were obtained. -from Authors

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Grenada

Changing precipitation patterns and temperature relate directly to water resources and water security. This report presents the findings of an assessment of the water sector in Grenada with respect to the projected impact of climate change. Grenada‘s water resources comprise primarily surface water, with an estimated groundwater potential to satisfy about 10%-15% of the present potable requirement. On the smaller islands Carriacou and Petite Martinique, domestic water is derived exclusively from rainwater catchments. Rainfall seasonality is marked and the available surface water during the dry season declines dramatically. Changing land use patterns, increase in population, expansion in tourism and future implementation of proposed irrigation schemes are projected to increase future water requirements. Economic modeling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios as illustrated. The results suggest that water supply will exceed forecasted water demand under B2 and BAU during all four decades. However under the A2 scenario, water demand will exceed water supply by the year 2025. It is important to note that the model has been constrained by the omission of several key parameters, and time series for climate indicators, data for which are unavailable. Some of these include time series for discharge data, rainfall-runoff data, groundwater recharge rates, and evapotranspiration. Further, the findings which seem to indicate adequacy of water are also masked by seasonality in a given year, variation from year to year, and spatial variation within the nation state. It is imperative that some emphasis be placed on data generation in order to better project for the management of Grenada‘s water security. This analysis indicates the need for additional water catchment, storage and distribution infrastructure, as well as institutional strengthening, in order to meet the future needs of the Grenadian population. Strategic priorities should be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Grenada has embarked on several initiatives that can be considered strategies toward adaptation to the variabilities associated with climate change. The Government should ensure that these programs be carried out to the optimal levels for reasons described above. The ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that measures will be beneficial with or without climate change should be adopted. A study on the Costs of Inaction for the Caribbean in the face of climate change listed Grenada among the countries which would experience significant impacts on GDP between now and 2100 without adaptation interventions. Investment in the water sector is germane to building Grenada‘s capacity to cope with the multivariate impact of changes in the parameters of climate.

Caracterização fisiográfica, hidrológica e energética da bacia de contribuição da microcentral hidrelétrica da fazenda Lageado, Botucatu - SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Aplicação de modelagem hidrológica associada à análise geoespacial, para caracterização da vazão na micro Central Hidroelétrica Ilha Anchieta - SP

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Performance Analysis of MODIS 500-m Spatial Resolution Products for Estimating Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Oligo-to Meso-Trophic Waters Case Study: Itumbiara Reservoir, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parâmetros erosividade da chuva, da enxurrada e da chuva-enxurrada correlacionados com as perdas de solo de um luvissolo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Análise da dinâmica do uso da terra e sua interferência em enchentes na área urbana do município de Americana (SP)

Due to an intense process of population growth and urban density in Americana (SP), mainly due to the development of the local textile industry after 1970, there was, concomitant to the occupation of the margin of rivers and streams, soil sealing that increased the level of superficial runoff, triggering frequent floods. Based on the analysis of these processes we investigate the conditions of one densely urbanized area of the county, the Córrego do Parque, in three time series, 1977, 1996 and 2008. Taking as the starting the characterization and spatial distribution of landscape physiography, we prepared thematic letters and synthetic maps digital scale 1:10,000 from photointerpretation of aeroframes. The thematic maps were produced by scanning with subsequent edition using the software Auto-Cad Map. Checking the data and of geographic coordinates with GPS (Global Positioning System). Regarding land use classes, we used the description of the Soil Conservation Service (1975) which allowed us to get the Curve Number parameter, which will be used in hydrologic modeling for verification of flooding (Tucci, 1989). For the process of hydrologic modeling, we used models based on Methodology Object Oriented Modeling Applied to Water Resource Systems, Viegas Filho (1999), using the computer program called IPHS1, which uses models of the Soil Conservation Service (SCS , 2004), for conversion of rainfall-runoff and the spread of excessive rain. The results indicate that increased waterproofing generated by the change in use and occupation over the past decades promoted the increased surface runoff and drainage system overload, increasing the intensity of floods

Calibrazione di modelli idrologici con algoritmi multiobiettivo

Traditional procedures for rainfall-runoff model calibration are generally based on the fit of the individual values of simulated and observed hydrographs. It is used here an alternative option that is carried out by matching, in the optimisation process, a set of statistics of the river flow. Such approach has the additional, significant advantage to allow also a straightforward regional calibration of the model parameters, based on the regionalisation of the selected statistics. The minimisation of the set of objective functions is carried out by using the AMALGAM algorithm, leading to the identification of behavioural parameter sets. The procedure is applied to a set of river basins located in central Italy: the basins are treated alternatively as gauged and ungauged and, as a term of comparison, the results obtained with a traditional time-domain calibration is also presented. The results show that a suitable choice of the statistics to be optimised leads to interesting results in real world case studies as far as the reproduction of the different flow regimes is concerned.

Variabilità spaziale dei parametri di modelli afflussi-deflussi

L’invarianza spaziale dei parametri di un modello afflussi-deflussi può rivelarsi una soluzione pratica e valida nel caso si voglia stimare la disponibilità di risorsa idrica di un’area. La simulazione idrologica è infatti uno strumento molto adottato ma presenta alcune criticità legate soprattutto alla necessità di calibrare i parametri del modello. Se si opta per l’applicazione di modelli spazialmente distribuiti, utili perché in grado di rendere conto della variabilità spaziale dei fenomeni che concorrono alla formazione di deflusso, il problema è solitamente legato all’alto numero di parametri in gioco. Assumendo che alcuni di questi siano omogenei nello spazio, dunque presentino lo stesso valore sui diversi bacini, è possibile ridurre il numero complessivo dei parametri che necessitano della calibrazione. Si verifica su base statistica questa assunzione, ricorrendo alla stima dell’incertezza parametrica valutata per mezzo di un algoritmo MCMC. Si nota che le distribuzioni dei parametri risultano in diversa misura compatibili sui bacini considerati. Quando poi l’obiettivo è la stima della disponibilità di risorsa idrica di bacini non strumentati, l’ipotesi di invarianza dei parametri assume ancora più importanza; solitamente infatti si affronta questo problema ricorrendo a lunghe analisi di regionalizzazione dei parametri. In questa sede invece si propone una procedura di cross-calibrazione che viene realizzata adottando le informazioni provenienti dai bacini strumentati più simili al sito di interesse. Si vuole raggiungere cioè un giusto compromesso tra lo svantaggio derivante dall’assumere i parametri del modello costanti sui bacini strumentati e il beneficio legato all’introduzione, passo dopo passo, di nuove e importanti informazioni derivanti dai bacini strumentati coinvolti nell’analisi. I risultati dimostrano l’utilità della metodologia proposta; si vede infatti che, in fase di validazione sul bacino considerato non strumentato, è possibile raggiungere un buona concordanza tra le serie di portata simulate e osservate.

Stima dei parametri di modelli idrologici mediante ottimizzazione dell’utilità

Tradizionalmente, l'obiettivo della calibrazione di un modello afflussi-deflussi è sempre stato quello di ottenere un set di parametri (o una distribuzione di probabilità dei parametri) che massimizzasse l'adattamento dei dati simulati alla realtà osservata, trattando parzialmente le finalità applicative del modello. Nel lavoro di tesi viene proposta una metodologia di calibrazione che trae spunto dell'evidenza che non sempre la corrispondenza tra dati osservati e simulati rappresenti il criterio più appropriato per calibrare un modello idrologico. Ai fini applicativi infatti, può risultare maggiormente utile una miglior rappresentazione di un determinato aspetto dell'idrogramma piuttosto che un altro. Il metodo di calibrazione che viene proposto mira a valutare le prestazioni del modello stimandone l'utilità nell'applicazione prevista. Tramite l'utilizzo di opportune funzioni, ad ogni passo temporale viene valutata l'utilità della simulazione ottenuta. La calibrazione viene quindi eseguita attraverso la massimizzazione di una funzione obiettivo costituita dalla somma delle utilità stimate nei singoli passi temporali. Le analisi mostrano come attraverso l'impiego di tali funzioni obiettivo sia possibile migliorare le prestazioni del modello laddove ritenute di maggior interesse per per le finalità applicative previste.