Modelling bus lost time : an additional parameter influencing bus dwell time and station platform capacity at a BRT station platform

The common approach to estimate bus dwell time at a BRT station is to apply the traditional dwell time methodology derived for suburban bus stops. In spite of being sensitive to boarding and alighting passenger numbers and to some extent towards fare collection media, these traditional dwell time models do not account for the platform crowding. Moreover, they fall short in accounting for the effects of passenger/s walking along a relatively longer BRT platform. Using the experience from Brisbane busway (BRT) stations, a new variable, Bus Lost Time (LT), is introduced in traditional dwell time model. The bus lost time variable captures the impact of passenger walking and platform crowding on bus dwell time. These are two characteristics which differentiate a BRT station from a bus stop. This paper reports the development of a methodology to estimate bus lost time experienced by buses at a BRT platform. Results were compared with the Transit Capacity and Quality of Servce Manual (TCQSM) approach of dwell time and station capacity estimation. When the bus lost time was used in dwell time calculations it was found that the BRT station platform capacity reduced by 10.1%.

Relationships between rainfall intensity, duration and suspended particle washoff from an urban road surface

A basic understanding of the relationships between rainfall intensity, duration of rainfall and the amount of suspended particles in stormwater runoff generated from road surfaces has been gained mainly from past washoff experiments using rainfall simulators. Simulated rainfall was generally applied at constant intensities, whereas rainfall temporal patterns during actual storms are typically highly variable. This paper discusses a rationale for the application of the constant-intensity washoff concepts to actual storm event runoff. The rationale is tested using suspended particle load data collected at a road site located in Toowoomba, Australia. Agreement between the washoff concepts and measured data is most consistent for intermediate-duration storms (duration <5 h and >1 h). Particle loads resulting from these storm events increase linearly with average rainfall intensity. Above a threshold intensity, there is evidence to suggest a constant or plateau particle load is reached. The inclusion of a peak discharge factor (maximum 6 min rainfall intensity) enhances the ability to predict particle loads.

Bounded parameter Markov Decision Processes with average reward criterion

Bounded parameter Markov Decision Processes (BMDPs) address the issue of dealing with uncertainty in the parameters of a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Unlike the case of an MDP, the notion of an optimal policy for a BMDP is not entirely straightforward. We consider two notions of optimality based on optimistic and pessimistic criteria. These have been analyzed for discounted BMDPs. Here we provide results for average reward BMDPs. We establish a fundamental relationship between the discounted and the average reward problems, prove the existence of Blackwell optimal policies and, for both notions of optimality, derive algorithms that converge to the optimal value function.

Some novel techniques of parameter estimation for the dynamical models in biological systems

Inverse problems based on using experimental data to estimate unknown parameters of a system often arise in biological and chaotic systems. In this paper, we consider parameter estimation in systems biology involving linear and non-linear complex dynamical models, including the Michaelis–Menten enzyme kinetic system, a dynamical model of competence induction in Bacillus subtilis bacteria and a model of feedback bypass in B. subtilis bacteria. We propose some novel techniques for inverse problems. Firstly, we establish an approximation of a non-linear differential algebraic equation that corresponds to the given biological systems. Secondly, we use the Picard contraction mapping, collage methods and numerical integration techniques to convert the parameter estimation into a minimization problem of the parameters. We propose two optimization techniques: a grid approximation method and a modified hybrid Nelder–Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization (MH-NMSS-PSO) for non-linear parameter estimation. The two techniques are used for parameter estimation in a model of competence induction in B. subtilis bacteria with noisy data. The MH-NMSS-PSO scheme is applied to a dynamical model of competence induction in B. subtilis bacteria based on experimental data and the model for feedback bypass. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Exploring the parameter space of a rabbit ventricular action potential model to investigate the effect of variation on action potential and calcium transients

Computational models for cardiomyocyte action potentials (AP) often make use of a large parameter set. This parameter set can contain some elements that are fitted to experimental data independently of any other element, some elements that are derived concurrently with other elements to match experimental data, and some elements that are derived purely from phenomenological fitting to produce the desired AP output. Furthermore, models can make use of several different data sets, not always derived for the same conditions or even the same species. It is consequently uncertain whether the parameter set for a given model is physiologically accurate. Furthermore, it is only recently that the possibility of degeneracy in parameter values in producing a given simulation output has started to be addressed. In this study, we examine the effects of varying two parameters (the L-type calcium current (I(CaL)) and the delayed rectifier potassium current (I(Ks))) in a computational model of a rabbit ventricular cardiomyocyte AP on both the membrane potential (V(m)) and calcium (Ca(2+)) transient. It will subsequently be determined if there is degeneracy in this model to these parameter values, which will have important implications on the stability of these models to cell-to-cell parameter variation, and also whether the current methodology for generating parameter values is flawed. The accuracy of AP duration (APD) as an indicator of AP shape will also be assessed.

Parameter estimation for a phenomenological model of the cardiac action potential

The action potential (ap) of a cardiac cell is made up of a complex balance of ionic currents which flow across the cell membrane in response to electrical excitation of the cell. Biophysically detailed mathematical models of the ap have grown larger in terms of the variables and parameters required to model new findings in subcellular ionic mechanisms. The fitting of parameters to such models has seen a large degree of parameter and module re-use from earlier models. An alternative method for modelling electrically exciteable cardiac tissue is a phenomenological model, which reconstructs tissue level ap wave behaviour without subcellular details. A new parameter estimation technique to fit the morphology of the ap in a four variable phenomenological model is presented. An approximation of a nonlinear ordinary differential equation model is established that corresponds to the given phenomenological model of the cardiac ap. The parameter estimation problem is converted into a minimisation problem for the unknown parameters. A modified hybrid Nelder–Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization is then used to solve the minimisation problem for the unknown parameters. The successful fitting of data generated from a well known biophysically detailed model is demonstrated. A successful fit to an experimental ap recording that contains both noise and experimental artefacts is also produced. The parameter estimation method’s ability to fit a complex morphology to a model with substantially more parameters than previously used is established.

Turbulence characteristics of a small subtropical estuary during and after some moderate rainfall

In natural estuaries, scalar diffusion and dispersion are driven by turbulence. In the present study, detailed turbulence measurements were conducted in a small subtropical estuary with semi-diurnal tides under neap tide conditions. Three acoustic Doppler velocimeters were installed mid-estuary at fixed locations close together. The units were sampled simultaneously and continuously at relatively high frequency for 50 h. The results illustrated the influence of tidal forcing in the small estuary, although low frequency longitudinal velocity oscillations were observed and believed to be induced by external resonance. The boundary shear stress data implied that the turbulent shear in the lower flow region was one order of magnitude larger than the boundary shear itself. The observation differed from turbulence data in a laboratory channel, but a key feature of natural estuary flow was the significant three dimensional effects associated with strong secondary currents including transverse shear events. The velocity covariances and triple correlations, as well as the backscatter intensity and covariances, were calculated for the entire field study. The covariances of the longitudinal velocity component showed some tidal trend, while the covariances of the transverse horizontal velocity component exhibited trends that reflected changes in secondary current patterns between ebb and flood tides. The triple correlation data tended to show some differences between ebb and flood tides. The acoustic backscatter intensity data were characterised by large fluctuations during the entire study, with dimensionless fluctuation intensity I0b =Ib between 0.46 and 0.54. An unusual feature of the field study was some moderate rainfall prior to and during the first part of the sampling period. Visual observations showed some surface scars and marked channels, while some mini transient fronts were observed.

Influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality

This thesis presents the outcomes of a comprehensive research study undertaken to investigate the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality. The knowledge created is expected to contribute to a greater understanding of urban stormwater quality and thereby enhance the design of stormwater quality treatment systems. The research study was undertaken based on selected urban catchments in Gold Coast, Australia. The research methodology included field investigations, laboratory testing, computer modelling and data analysis. Both univariate and multivariate data analysis techniques were used to investigate the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality. The rainfall characteristics investigated included average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration whilst catchment characteristics included land use, impervious area percentage, urban form and pervious area location. The catchment scale data for the analysis was obtained from four residential catchments, including rainfall-runoff records, drainage network data, stormwater quality data and land use and land cover data. Pollutants build-up samples were collected from twelve road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land use areas. The relationships between rainfall characteristics, catchment characteristics and urban stormwater quality were investigated based on residential catchments and then extended to other land uses. Based on the influence rainfall characteristics exert on urban stormwater quality, rainfall events can be classified into three different types, namely, high average intensity-short duration (Type 1), high average intensity-long duration (Type 2) and low average intensity-long duration (Type 3). This provides an innovative approach to conventional modelling which does not commonly relate stormwater quality to rainfall characteristics. Additionally, it was found that the threshold intensity for pollutant wash-off from urban catchments is much less than for rural catchments. High average intensity-short duration rainfall events are cumulatively responsible for the generation of a major fraction of the annual pollutants load compared to the other rainfall event types. Additionally, rainfall events less than 1 year ARI such as 6- month ARI should be considered for treatment design as they generate a significant fraction of the annual runoff volume and by implication a significant fraction of the pollutants load. This implies that stormwater treatment designs based on larger rainfall events would not be feasible in the context of cost-effectiveness, efficiency in treatment performance and possible savings in land area needed. This also suggests that the simulation of long-term continuous rainfall events for stormwater treatment design may not be needed and that event based simulations would be adequate. The investigations into the relationship between catchment characteristics and urban stormwater quality found that other than conventional catchment characteristics such as land use and impervious area percentage, other catchment characteristics such as urban form and pervious area location also play important roles in influencing urban stormwater quality. These outcomes point to the fact that the conventional modelling approach in the design of stormwater quality treatment systems which is commonly based on land use and impervious area percentage would be inadequate. It was also noted that the small uniformly urbanised areas within a larger mixed catchment produce relatively lower variations in stormwater quality and as expected lower runoff volume with the opposite being the case for large mixed use urbanised catchments. Therefore, a decentralised approach to water quality treatment would be more effective rather than an "end-of-pipe" approach. The investigation of pollutants build-up on different land uses showed that pollutant build-up characteristics vary even within the same land use. Therefore, the conventional approach in stormwater quality modelling, which is based solely on land use, may prove to be inappropriate. Industrial land use has relatively higher variability in maximum pollutant build-up, build-up rate and particle size distribution than the other two land uses. However, commercial and residential land uses had relatively higher variations of nutrients and organic carbon build-up. Additionally, it was found that particle size distribution had a relatively higher variability for all three land uses compared to the other build-up parameters. The high variability in particle size distribution for all land uses illustrate the dissimilarities associated with the fine and coarse particle size fractions even within the same land use and hence the variations in stormwater quality in relation to pollutants adsorbing to different sizes of particles.

Effect of soil parameter uncertainty on seismic response of buried segmented pipeline

Pipelines are important lifeline facilities spread over a large area and they generally encounter a range of seismic hazards and different soil conditions. The seismic response of a buried segmented pipe depends on various parameters such as the type of buried pipe material and joints, end restraint conditions, soil characteristics, burial depths, and earthquake ground motion, etc. This study highlights the effect of the variation of geotechnical properties of the surrounding soil on seismic response of a buried pipeline. The variations of the properties of the surrounding soil along the pipe are described by sampling them from predefined probability distribution. The soil-pipe interaction model is developed in OpenSEES. Nonlinear earthquake time-history analysis is performed to study the effect of soil parameters variability on the response of pipeline. Based on the results, it is found that uncertainty in soil parameters may result in significant response variability of the pipeline.