Ovulation and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Incessant ovulation is thought to be one of the primary causes of epithelial ovarian cancer. However, the effects of ovulation at different ages and of the various exposures or events that suppress ovulation have not been established. We used data from an Australian case-control study of 791 ovarian cancer cases and 853 controls to examine the effect of ovulation on ovarian cancer risk. The total number of lifetime ovulations was calculated using information provided in a monthly contraceptive/reproductive calendar, as well as incorporating other information such as average menstrual cycle length. An increase of I year's worth of ovulation was associated with a 6% increase in risk of ovarian cancer (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4-8%). Ovulations in the 20-29-year age group were associated with the greatest risk, with a 20% increase in risk associated with each year of ovulation during this age period (95% Cl = 13-26%). When the effects of different exposures that suppress ovulation were compared, there was an indication that some factors may have a greater effect than others. These findings support the theory that incessant ovulation is a major contributor to the occurrence of ovarian cancer and suggest that ovulations during the 20s may be those most associated with disease risk. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Genetic Epidemiology of Alcohol-Induced Blackouts

Background: Alcohol-induced blackouts (ie, periods of anterograde amnesia) have received limited recent research attention. Objective: To examine the genetic epidemiology of lifetime blackouts and having had 3 or more blackouts in a year, including analyses controlling for the frequency of intoxication. Design, Setting, and Participants: Members of the young adult Australian Twin Register, a volunteer twin panel born between January 1, 1964, and December 3 1, 1971, were initially registered with the panel as children by their parents between 1980 and 1982. They underwent structured psychiatric telephone inter-views from February 1996 through September 2000. The current sample contains 2324 monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs (mean [SDI age 29.9 [2.5] years) for whom both twins' responses were coded for blackout questions and for frequency of intoxication. Main Outcome Measure: Data on lifetime blackouts and having had 3 or more blackouts in a year were collected within an examination of the genetic epidemiology of alcoholism. Results: A lifetime history of blackouts was reported by 39.3% of women and 52.4% of men; 11.4% of women and 20.9% of men reported having had 3 or more blackouts in a year. The heritability of lifetime blackouts was 52.5% and that of having had 3 or more blackouts in a year was 57.8%. Models that controlled for frequency of intoxication found evidence of substantial genetic contribution unique to risk for the blackouts and a significant component of genetic risk shared with frequency of intoxication. Conclusions: The finding of a substantial genetic contribution to liability for alcohol-induced blackouts including a component of genetic loading shared with frequency of intoxication may offer important additional avenues to investigate susceptibility to alcohol-related problems.

Prevalence of injecting drug use and associated risk behavior among regular ecstasy users in Australia

Background: The aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence of injecting drug use and associated risk behaviour among a sentinel sample of ecstasy users. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted with regular ecstasy users as part of an annual monitoring study of ecstasy and related drug markets in all Australian capital cities. Results: Twenty-three percent of the sample reported having ever injected a drug and 15% reported injecting in the 6 months preceding interview. Independent predictors of lifetime injection were older age, unemployment and having ever been in prison. Completion of secondary school and identifying as heterosexual was associated with a lower likelihood of having ever injected. Participants who had recently injected typically did so infrequently; only 9% reported daily injecting. Methamphetamine was the most commonly injected drug. Prevalence of needle sharing was low (6%), although half (47%) reported sharing other injecting equipment in the preceding 6 months. Conclusions: Ecstasy users who report having injected a drug at some time appear to be demographically different to ecstasy users who have not injected although neither are they typical of other drug injectors. The current investigation suggests that ongoing monitoring of injecting among regular ecstasy users is warranted. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of latent profile analysis to identify eating disorder phenotypes in an adult Australian twin cohort

Context: The relationships among the different eating disorders that exist in the community are poorly understood, especially for residual disorders in which bingeing or purging occurs in the absence of other behaviors. Objective: To examine a community sample for the number of mutually exclusive weight and eating profiles. Design: Data regarding lifetime eating disorder symptoms and weight range were submitted to a latent profile analysis. Profiles were compared regarding personality, current eating and weight, retrospectively reported life events, and lifetime depressive psychopathology. Setting: Longitudinal study among female twins from the Australian Twin Registry in whom eating was assessed by a telephone interview. Participants: A community sample of 1002 twins (individuals) who had participated in earlier waves of data collection. Main Outcome Measures: Number and clinical character of latent profiles. Results: The best fit was a 5-profile solution with women who were (1) of normal weight with few lifetime eating disorders (4.3%), (2) overweight (10.6% had a lifetime eating disorder), (3) underweight and generally had no eating disorders except for 5.3% who had restricting anorexia nervosa, (4) of low to normal weight (89.0% had a lifetime eating disorder), and (5) obese (37.0% had a lifetime eating disorder). Each profile contained more than 1 type of lifetime eating disorder except for the third profile. Women in the first and third profiles had the best functioning, with women in the fourth and fifth profiles having similarly poorer functioning. The women in the fourth group had a symptom profile distinctive from the other 4 groups in terms of severity; they were also more likely to have had lifetime major depression and suicidality. Conclusion: Lifetime weight ranges and the severity of eating disorder symptoms affected clustering more than the type of eating disorder symptom.

A novel Mo-W interlayer approach for CVD diamond deposition on steel

Steel is the most widely used material in engineering for its cost/performance ratio and coatings are routinely applied on its surface to further improve its properties. Diamond coated steel parts are an option for many demanding industrial applications through prolonging the lifetime of steel parts, enhancement of tool performance as well as the reduction of wear rates. Direct deposition of diamond on steel using conventional chemical vapour deposition (CVD) processes is known to give poor results due to the preferential formation of amorphous carbon on iron, nickel and other elements as well as stresses induced from the significant difference in the thermal expansion coefficients of those materials. This article reports a novel approach of deposition of nanocrystalline diamond coatings on high-speed steel (M42) substrates using a multi-structured molybdenum (Mo) - tungsten (W) interlayer to form steel/Mo/Mo-W/W/diamond sandwich structures which overcome the adhesion problem related to direct magnetron sputtering deposition of pure tungsten. Surface, interface and tribology properties were evaluated to understand the role of such an interlayer structure. The multi-structured Mo-W interlayer has been proven to improve the adhesion between diamond films and steel substrates by acting as an effective diffusion barrier during the CVD diamond deposition.

Evidence for the early clinical relevance of hallucinatory-delusional states in the general population

OBJECTIVE: To analyze, in a general population sample, clustering of delusional and hallucinatory experiences in relation to environmental exposures and clinical parameters. METHOD: General population-based household surveys of randomly selected adults between 18 and 65 years of age were carried out. SETTING: 52 countries participating in the World Health Organization's World Health Survey were included. PARTICIPANTS: 225 842 subjects (55.6% women), from nationally representative samples, with an individual response rate of 98.5% within households participated. RESULTS: Compared with isolated delusions and hallucinations, co-occurrence of the two phenomena was associated with poorer outcome including worse general health and functioning status (OR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.92-0.93), greater severity of symptoms (OR = 2.5 95% CI: 2.0-3.0), higher probability of lifetime diagnosis of psychotic disorder (OR = 12.9; 95% CI: 11.5-14.4), lifetime treatment for psychotic disorder (OR = 19.7; 95% CI: 17.3-22.5), and depression during the last 12 months (OR = 11.6; 95% CI: 10.9-12.4). Co-occurrence was also associated with adversity and hearing problems (OR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.8-2.3). CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the co-occurrence of hallucinations and delusions in populations is not random but instead can be seen, compared with either phenomenon in isolation, as the result of more etiologic loading leading to a more severe clinical state.

New Bivariate Lifetime Distributions Based on Bath-Tub Shaped Failure Rate

A class of lifetime distributions which has received considerable attention in modelling and analysis of lifetime data is the class of lifetime distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rate functions because of their extensive applications. The purpose of this thesis was to introduce a new class of bivariate lifetime distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rates (BTFRFs). In this research, first we reviewed univariate lifetime distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rates, and several multivariate extensions of a univariate failure rate function. Then we introduced a new class of bivariate distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rates (hazard gradients). Specifically, the new class of bivariate lifetime distributions were developed using the method of Morgenstern’s method of defining bivariate class of distributions with given marginals. The computer simulations and numerical computations were used to investigate the properties of these distributions.

The universal credit rating group:the viability of a response

The role played by the Big Three credit rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch) in the creation of the recent Financial Crisis has been well documented, as too has their conduct in the aftermath of the Crisis where they contributed to the prolonging of the effects of the systemic breakdown. Also, with a string of record fines and cease-and-desist orders in the wake of the Crisis lending weight to the notion that the Big Three have no plans of performing any more ethically, there are a number of organisations that are endeavouring to provide a better alternative to the stranglehold of the Big Three. In the first instalment of the Viability of a Response series we were introduced to the International Non-Profit Credit Rating Agency who, through the amalgamation of forward-looking and non-profit ideals, intends to inject some much needed ethical consideration into the process of providing ratings that are crucial to the marketplace . In this edition of the series, we will be introduced to the Universal Credit Rating Group (UCRG) which is an alliance between Dagong Global Ratings, RusRating, and Egan-Jones Rating Company. We will start by learning more about this alliance that is due to come into effect in the next few years, and then the article will examine the reality of the situation to come to a conclusion on what the Group’s chances of success may be.

Psychiatric disorder in HIV infection

Objective: This study aimed to investigate rates of psychiatric disorder in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, in an Australian sample of homosexual and bisexual men. Method: A cross-sectional study of a total of 65 HIV sero-negative (HIV-) and 164 HIV sero-positive men (HIVt) (79 CDC stage 1 1/1 11 and 85 CDC stage IV) was conducted in three centres. Lifetime and current prevalence rates of psychiatric disorder were evaluated using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule Version lllR (DIS-IIIR). Results: Elevated current and lifetime rates of major depression were detected in both HIV negative and HIV positive homosexual/bisexual men. Lifetime rates of alcohol abuseldependence were significantly elevated in HIV positive men (CDC group IV) when compared with HIV negative men. Among the HIV positive group the majority of psychiatric disorders detected were preceded by a pre-HIV diagnosis of psychiatric disorder. Major depression represented the disorder most likely to have first onset after HIV infection diagnosis. Conclusions: Lifetime rates of major depression were elevated in this sample of HIV-negative and HIV-positive men, In the HIV-positive men, psychiatric disorder was significantly associated with the presence of lifetime psychiatric disorder prior to HIV infection diagnosis, The findings indicate the importance of evaluation of psychiatric history prior to HIV infection and the clinical significance of depressive syndromes in this population.

The Explicit Hazard Model – Part 2 : Applications

Hazard and reliability prediction of an engineering asset is one of the significant fields of research in Engineering Asset Health Management (EAHM). In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset can be influenced and/or indicated by different factors that are termed as covariates. The Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) as a covariate-based hazard model is a new approach for hazard prediction which explicitly incorporates both internal and external covariates into one model. EHM is an appropriate model to use in the analysis of lifetime data in presence of both internal and external covariates in the reliability field. This paper presents applications of the methodology which is introduced and illustrated in the theory part of this study. In this paper, the semi-parametric EHM is applied to a case study so as to predict the hazard and reliability of resistance elements on a Resistance Corrosion Sensor Board (RCSB).

Component reliability estimations without field data

Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.

The association between MC1R genotype and BRAF mutation status in cutaneous melanoma : findings from an Australian population

There is increasing epidemiological and molecular evidence that cutaneous melanomas arise through multiple causal pathways. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between germline and somatic mutations in a population-based series of melanoma patients to reshape and refine the divergent pathway model for melanoma. Melanomas collected from 123 Australian patients were analyzed for melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) variants and mutations in the BRAF and NRAS genes. Detailed phenotypic and sun exposure data were systematically collected from all patients. We found that BRAF-mutant melanomas were significantly more likely from younger patients and those with high nevus counts, and were more likely in melanomas with adjacent neval remnants. Conversely, BRAF-mutant melanomas were significantly less likely in people with high levels of lifetime sun exposure. We observed no association between germline MC1R status and somatic BRAF mutations in melanomas from this population. BRAF-mutant melanomas have different origins from other cutaneous melanomas. These data support the divergent pathways hypothesis for melanoma, which may require a reappraisal of targeted cancer prevention activities.

Endogenous mortality, human capital and economic growth

We consider growth and welfare effects of lifetime-uncertainty in an economy with human capital-led endogenous growth. We argue that lifetime uncertainty reduces private incentives to invest in both physical and human capital. Using an overlapping generations framework with finite-lived households we analyze the relevance of government expenditure on health and education to counter such growth-reducing forces. We focus on three different models that differ with respect to the mode of financing of education: (i) both private and public spending, (ii) only public spending, and (iii) only private spending. Results show that models (i) and (iii) outperform model (ii) with respect to long-term growth rates of per capita income, welfare levels and other important macroeconomic indicators. Theoretical predictions of model rankings for these macroeconomic indicators are also supported by observed stylized facts.

Sunscreen application thickness amongst primary school children : the children and sunscreen study

Childhood sun exposure has been associated with increased risk of developing melanoma later in life. Sunscreen, children.s preferred method of sun protection, has been shown to reduce skin cancer risk. However, the effectiveness of sunscreen is largely dependent on user compliance, such as the thickness of application. To reach the sun protection factor (SPF) sunscreen must be applied at a thickness of 2mg/cm2. It has been demonstrated that adults tend to apply less than half of the recommended 2mg/cm2. This was the first study to measure the thickness at which children apply sunscreen. We recruited 87 primary school aged children (n=87, median age 8.7, 5-12 years) from seven state schools within one Brisbane education district (32% consent rate). The children were supplied with sunscreen in three dispenser types (pump, squeeze and roll-on) and were asked to use these for one week each. We measured the weight of the sunscreen before and after use, and calculated the children.s body surface area (based on height and weight) and area to which sunscreen was applied (based on children.s self-reported body coverage of application). Combined these measurements resulted in an average thickness of sunscreen application, which was our main outcome measure. We asked parents to complete a self-administered questionnaire which captured information about potential explanatory variables. Children applied sunscreen at a median thickness of 0.48mg/cm2, significantly less than the recommended 2mg/cm2 (p<0.001). When using the roll-on dispenser (median 0.22mg/cm2), children applied significantly less sunscreen thickness, compared to the pump (median 0.75mg.cm2, p<0.001), and squeeze (median 0.57mg/cm2, p<0.001) dispensers. School grade (1-7) was significantly associated with thickness of application (p=0.032), with children in the youngest grades applying the most. Other variables that were significantly associated with the outcome variable included: number of siblings (p=0.001), household annual income (p<0.001), and the number of lifetime sunburns the child had experienced (p=0.007). This work is the first to measure children.s sunscreen application thickness and demonstrates that regardless of their age or the type of dispenser that they use, children do not apply enough sunscreen to reach the advertised SPF. It is envisaged that this study will assist in the formulation of recommendations for future research, practice and policy aimed at improving childhood sun protection to reduce skin cancer incidence in the future.

Factors associated with common mental disorders during the transition to adulthood : do emerging adults and ‘early starters’ differ? Findings from an Australian birth cohort study

Background: Despite increasing diversity in pathways to adulthood, choices available to young people are influenced by environmental, familial and individual factors, namely access to socioeconomic resources, family support and mental and physical health status. Young people from families with higher socioeconomic position (SEP) are more likely to pursue tertiary education and delay entry to adulthood, whereas those from low socioeconomic backgrounds are less likely to attain higher education or training, and more likely to partner and become parents early. The first group are commonly termed ‘emerging adults’ and the latter group ‘early starters’. Mental health disorders during this transition can seriously disrupt psychological, social and academic development as well as employment prospects. Depression, anxiety and most substance use disorders have early onset during adolescence and early adulthood with approximately three quarters of lifetime psychiatric disorders having emerged by 24 years of age. Aims: This thesis aimed to explore the relationships between mental health, sociodemographic factors and family functioning during the transition to adulthood. Four areas were investigated: 1) The key differences between emerging adults and ‘early starters’, were examined and focused on a series of social, economic, and demographic factors as well as DSM-IV diagnoses; 2) Methodological issues associated with the measurement of depression and anxiety in young adults were explored by comparing a quantitative measure of symptoms of anxiety and depression (Achenbach’s YSR and YASR internalising scales) with DSM-IV diagnosed depression and anxiety. 3) The association between family SEP and DSM-IV depression and anxiety was examined in relation to the different pathways to adulthood. 4) Finally, the association between pregnancy loss, abortion and miscarriage, and DSM-IV diagnoses of common psychiatric disorders was assessed in young women who reported early parenting, experiencing a pregnancy loss, or who had never been pregnant. Methods: Data were taken from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a large birth cohort started in 1981 in Brisbane, Australia. 7223 mothers and their children were assessed five times, at 6 months, 5, 14 and 21 years after birth. Over 3700 young adults, aged 18 to 23 years, were interviewed at the 21-year phase. Respondents completed an extensive series of self-reported questionnaires and a computerised structured psychiatric interview. Three outcomes were assessed at the 21-year phase. Mental health disorders diagnosed by a computerised structured psychiatric interview (CIDI-Auto), the prevalence of DSM-IV depression, anxiety and substance use disorders within the previous 12-month, during the transition (between ages of 18 and 23 years) or lifetime were examined. The primary outcome “current stage in the transition to adulthood” was developed using a measure conceptually constructed from the literature. The measure was based on important demographic markers, and these defined four independent groups: emerging adults (single with no children and living with parents), and three categories of ‘early starter’, singles (with no children or partner, living independently), those with a partner (married or cohabitating but without children) and parents. Early pregnancy loss was assessed using a measure that also defined four independent groups and was based on pregnancy outcomes in the young women This categorised the young women into those who were never pregnant, women who gave birth to a live child, and women who reported some form of pregnancy loss, either an abortion or a spontaneous miscarriage. A series of analyses were undertaken to test the study aims. Potential confounding and mediating factors were prospectively measured between the child’s birth and the 21-year phase. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of relevant outcomes, and the associations were reported as odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Key findings: The thesis makes a number of important contributions to our understanding of the transition to adulthood, particularly in relation to the mental health consequences associated with different pathways. Firstly, findings from the thesis clearly showed that young people who parented or partnered early fared worse across most of the economic and social factors as well as the common mental disorders when compared to emerging adults. That is, young people who became early parents were also more likely to experience recent anxiety (OR=2.0, 95%CI 1.5-2.8) and depression (OR=1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.7) than were emerging adults after taking into account a range of confounding factors. Singles and those partnering early also had higher rates of lifetime anxiety and depression than emerging adults. Young people who partnered early, but were without children, had decreased odds of recent depression; this may be due to the protective effect of early marriage against depression. It was also found that young people who form families early had an increased risk of cigarette smoking (parents OR=3.7, 95%CI 2.9-4.8) compared to emerging adults, but not heavy alcohol (parents OR=0.4, 95%CI 0.3-0.6) or recent illicit drug use. The high rates of cigarette smoking and tobacco use disorders in ‘early starters’ were explained by common risk factors related to early adversity and lower SEP. Having a child and early marriage may well function as a ‘turning point’ for some young people, it is not clear whether this is due to a conscious decision to disengage from a previous ‘substance using’ lifestyle or simply that they no longer have the time to devote to such activities because of child caring. In relation to the methodological issues associated with assessing common mental disorders in young adults, it was found that although the Achenbach empirical internalising scales successfully predicted both later DSM-IV depression (YSR OR=2.3, 95%CI 1.7-3.1) and concurrently diagnosed depression (YASR OR=6.9, 95%CI 5.0- 9.5) and anxiety (YASR OR=5.1, 95%CI 3.8- 6.7), the scales discriminated poorly between young people with or without DSM-IV diagnosed mood disorder. Sensitivity values (the proportion of true positives) for the internalising scales were surprisingly low. Only a third of young people with current DSM-IV depression (range for each of the scales was between 34% to 42%) were correctly identified as cases by the YASR internalising scales, and only a quarter with current anxiety disorder (range of 23% to 31%) were correctly identified. Also, use of the DSM-oriented scales increased sensitivity only marginally (for depression between 2-8%, and anxiety between 2-6%) above the standard Achenbach scales. This is despite the fact that the DSM-oriented scales were originally developed to overcome the poor prediction of DSM-IV diagnoses by the Achenbach scales. The internalising scales, both standard and DSM-oriented, were much more effective at identifying young people with comorbid depression and anxiety, with OR’s 10.1 to 21.7 depending on the internalising scale used. SEP is an important predictor of both an early transition to adulthood and the experience of anxiety during that time Family income during adolescence was a strong predictor of early parenting and partnering before age 24 but not early independent living. Compared to families in the upper quintile, young people from families with low income were nearly twice as likely to live with a partner and four times more likely to become parents (OR ranged from 2.6 to 4.0). This association remained after adjusting for current employment and education level. Children raised in low income families were 30% more likely to have an anxiety disorder (OR=1.3, 95%CI 0.9-1.9), but not depression, as young adults when compared to children from wealthier families. Emerging adults and ‘early starters’ from low income families did not differ in their likelihood of having a later anxiety disorder. Young women reporting a pregnancy loss had nearly three times the odds of experiencing a lifetime illicit drug disorder (excluding cannabis) [abortion OR=3.6, 95%CI 2.0-6.7 and miscarriage OR=2.6, 95%CI 1.2-5.4]. Abortion was associated with alcohol use disorder (OR=2.1, 95%CI 1.3- 3.5) and 12-month depression (OR=1.9, 95%CI 1.1- 3.1). These finding suggest that the association identified by Fergusson et al between abortion and later psychiatric disorders in young women may be due to pregnancy loss and not to abortion, per se. Conclusion: Findings from this thesis support the view that young people who parent or partner early have a greater burden of depression and anxiety when compared to emerging adults. As well, young women experiencing pregnancy loss, from either abortion or miscarriage, are more likely to experience depression and anxiety than are those who give birth to a live infant or who have never been pregnant. Depression, anxiety and substance use disorders often go unrecognised and untreated in young people; this is especially true in young people from lower SEP. Early identification of these common mental health disorders is important, as depression and anxiety experienced during the transition to adulthood have been found to seriously disrupt an individual’s social, educational and economic prospects in later life.