Changes in estimated coronary risk in the 1980s: data from 38 populations in the WHO MONICA Project

The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project is a 10-year study monitoring trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease in geographically defined populations. Data were collected from over 100 000 randomly selected participants in two risk factor surveys conducted approximately 5 years apart in 38 populations using standardized protocols. The net effects of changes in the risk factor levels were estimated using risk scores derived from longitudinal studies in the Nordic countries. The prevalence of cigarette smoking decreased among men in most populations, but the trends for women varied. The prevalence of hypertension declined in two-thirds of the populations. Changes in the prevalence of raised total cholesterol were small but highly correlated between the genders (r = 0.8). The prevalence of obesity increased in three-quarters of the populations for men and in more than half of the populations for women. In almost half of the populations there were statistically significant declines in the estimated coronary risk for both men and women, although for Beijing the risk score increased significantly for both genders. The net effect of the changes in the risk factor levels in the 1980s in most of the study populations of the WHO MONICA Project is that the rates of coronary disease are predicted to decline in the 1990s.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Current smoking and the risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction in the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background: Cohort studies have shown that smoking has a substantial influence on coronary heart disease mortality in young people. Population based data on non-fatal events have been sparse, however. Objective: To study the impact of smoking on the risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in young middle age people. Methods: From 1985 to 1994 all non-fatal MI events in the age group 35 - 64 were registered in men and women in the WHO MONICA ( multinational monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) project populations ( 18 762 events in men and 4047 in women from 32 populations from 21 countries). In the same populations and age groups 65 741 men and 66 717 women participated in the surveys of risk factors ( overall response rate 72%). The relative risk of non-fatal MI for current smokers was compared with non-smokers, by sex and five year age group. Results: The prevalence of smoking in people aged 35 - 39 years who experienced non-fatal MI events was 81% in men and 77% in women. It declined with increasing age to 45% in men aged 60 - 64 years and 36% in women, respectively. In the 35 - 39 years age group the relative risk of non-fatal MI for smokers was 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.1) in men and 5.3 ( 95% CI 3.2 to 8.7) in women, and the population attributable fractions were 65% and 55%, respectively. Conclusions: During the study period more than half of the non-fatal MIs occurring in young middle age people can be attributed to smoking.

The Australian Universities Teaching Committee project in 'Learning Outcomes and Curriculum Development in Psychology'

The Australian Universities Teaching Committee (AUTC) funds projects intended to improve the quality of teaching and learning in specific disciplinary areas. The project brief for 'Learning Outcomes and Curriculum Development in Psychology' for 2004/2005 was to 'produce an evaluative overview of courses ... with a focus on the specification and assessment of learning outcomes and ... identify strategic directions for universities to enhance teaching and learning'. This project was awarded to a consortium from The University of Queensland, University of Tasmania, and Southern Cross University. The starting point for this project is an analysis of the scientist-practitioner model and its role in curriculum design, a review of current challenges at a conceptual level, and consideration of the implications of recent changes to universities relating to such things as intemationalisation of programs and technological advances. The project will seek to bring together stakeholders from around the country in order to survey the widest possible range of perspectives on the project brief requirements. It is hoped also to establish mechanisms for fiiture scholarly discussion of these issues, including the establishment of an Australian Society for the Teaching of Psychology and an annual conference.

Smoking and relative body weight: An international perspective from the WHO MONICA project

Study objective-To investigate the magnitude and consistency of the associations between smoking and body mass index (BMI) in different populations. Design-A cross sectional study. Setting and participants-About 69000 men and women aged 35-64 years from 42 populations participating in the first WHO MONICA survey in the early and mid 1980s. Main restults-Compared to never smokers, regular smokers had significantly (p < 0.05) lower median BMI in 20 (men) and 30 (women) out of 42 populations (range -2.9 to 0.5kg/m(2)). There was no population in which smokers had a significantly higher BMI than never smokers. Among men, the association between leanness and smoking was less apparent in populations with relatively low proportions of regular smokers and high proportions of ex-smokers. Ex-smokers had significantly higher BMI than never smokers in 10 of the male populations but in women no consistent pattern was observed. Adjustment for socioeconomic status did not affect these results. Conclusions-Although in most populations the association between smoking and BMI is similar, the magnitude of this association may be affected by the proportions of smokers and ex-smokers in these populations.