Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models

We advance the proposition that dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models should not only be estimated and evaluated with full information methods. These require that the complete system of equations be specified properly. Some limited information analysis, which focuses upon specific equations, is therefore likely to be a useful complement to full system analysis. Two major problems occur when implementing limited information methods. These are the presence of forward-looking expectations in the system as well as unobservable non-stationary variables. We present methods for dealing with both of these difficulties, and illustrate the interaction between full and limited information methods using a well-known model.

A review of simulation models for railway systems

With the advances in computer hardware and software development techniques in the past 25 years, digital computer simulation of train movement and traction systems has been widely adopted as a standard computer-aided engineering tool [1] during the design and development stages of existing and new railway systems. Simulators of different approaches and scales are used extensively to investigate various kinds of system studies. Simulation is now proven to be the cheapest means to carry out performance predication and system behaviour characterisation. When computers were first used to study railway systems, they were mainly employed to perform repetitive but time-consuming computational tasks, such as matrix manipulations for power network solution and exhaustive searches for optimal braking trajectories. With only simple high-level programming languages available at the time, full advantage of the computing hardware could not be taken. Hence, structured simulations of the whole railway system were not very common. Most applications focused on isolated parts of the railway system. It is more appropriate to regard those applications as primarily mechanised calculations rather than simulations. However, a railway system consists of a number of subsystems, such as train movement, power supply and traction drives, which inevitably contains many complexities and diversities. These subsystems interact frequently with each other while the trains are moving; and they have their special features in different railway systems. To further complicate the simulation requirements, constraints like track geometry, speed restrictions and friction have to be considered, not to mention possible non-linearities and uncertainties in the system. In order to provide a comprehensive and accurate account of system behaviour through simulation, a large amount of data has to be organised systematically to ensure easy access and efficient representation; the interactions and relationships among the subsystems should be defined explicitly. These requirements call for sophisticated and effective simulation models for each component of the system. The software development techniques available nowadays allow the evolution of such simulation models. Not only can the applicability of the simulators be largely enhanced by advanced software design, maintainability and modularity for easy understanding and further development, and portability for various hardware platforms are also encouraged. The objective of this paper is to review the development of a number of approaches to simulation models. Attention is, in particular, given to models for train movement, power supply systems and traction drives. These models have been successfully used to enable various ‘what-if’ issues to be resolved effectively in a wide range of applications, such as speed profiles, energy consumption, run times etc.

The effects of content presentation format and user characteristics on novice developers’ understanding of process models

Process models are used by information professionals to convey semantics about the business operations in a real world domain intended to be supported by an information system. The understandability of these models is vital to them being used for information systems development. In this paper, we examine two factors that we predict will influence the understanding of a business process that novice developers obtain from a corresponding process model: the content presentation form chosen to articulate the business domain, and the user characteristics of the novice developers working with the model. Our experimental study provides evidence that novice developers obtain similar levels of understanding when confronted with an unfamiliar or a familiar process model. However, previous modeling experience, the use of English as a second language, and previous work experience in BPM are important influencing factors of model understanding. Our findings suggest that education and research in process modeling should increase the focus on human factors and how they relate to content and content presentation formats for different modeling tasks. We discuss implications for practice and research.

Discovering characteristics of stochastic collections of process models

Process models in organizational collections are typically modeled by the same team and using the same conventions. As such, these models share many characteristic features like size range, type and frequency of errors. In most cases merely small samples of these collections are available due to e.g. the sensitive information they contain. Because of their sizes, these samples may not provide an accurate representation of the characteristics of the originating collection. This paper deals with the problem of constructing collections of process models, in the form of Petri nets, from small samples of a collection for accurate estimations of the characteristics of this collection. Given a small sample of process models drawn from a real-life collection, we mine a set of generation parameters that we use to generate arbitrary-large collections that feature the same characteristics of the original collection. In this way we can estimate the characteristics of the original collection on the generated collections.We extensively evaluate the quality of our technique on various sample datasets drawn from both research and industry.

Rural activity spaces and transport disadvantage : qualitative analysis of quantitative models integrating time and space

Current knowledge about the relationship between transport disadvantage and activity space size is limited to urban areas, and as a result, very little is known to date about this link in a rural context. In addition, although research has identified transport disadvantaged groups based on their size of activity spaces, these studies have, however, not empirically explained such differences and the result is often a poor identification of the problems facing disadvantaged groups. Research has shown that transport disadvantage varies over time. The static nature of analysis using the activity space concept in previous research studies has lacked the ability to identify transport disadvantage in time. Activity space is a dynamic concept; and therefore possesses a great potential in capturing temporal variations in behaviour and access opportunities. This research derives measures of the size and fullness of activity spaces for 157 individuals for weekdays, weekends, and for a week using weekly activity-travel diary data from three case study areas located in rural Northern Ireland. Four focus groups were also conducted in order to triangulate the quantitative findings and to explain the differences between different socio-spatial groups. The findings of this research show that despite having a smaller sized activity space, individuals were not disadvantaged because they were able to access their required activities locally. Car-ownership was found to be an important life line in rural areas. Temporal disaggregation of the data reveals that this is true only on weekends due to a lack of public transport services. In addition, despite activity spaces being at a similar size, the fullness of activity spaces of low-income individuals was found to be significantly lower compared to their high-income counterparts. Focus group data shows that financial constraint, poor connections both between public transport services and between transport routes and opportunities forced individuals to participate in activities located along the main transport corridors.

Self-Government and the fashioning of resilient personae : legal education, criminal justice, and the government of mental health

This paper explores attempts to shape resilient personae through relations of self-government, and highlights the way that this features as part of advanced liberal forms of rule. As an example of this process, it focuses on the way that undergraduate law students are encouraged to fashion resilient personae throughout their legal studies, so as to avoid, or effectively respond to, experiences that may have a detrimental effect on their mental health. This paper argues that the production of such resilience relies on students being encouraged to take up psychologically- and biomedically-infused subject positions, becoming well-disciplined subjects, entrepreneurs of the self, and even virtuous persons. It highlights that the fashioning of resilient personae in this way involves extensions to the targets and practices of self-government and reinforces advanced liberal government. The paper then suggests how insights into fashioning resilience in this context can inform further research on resilience, particularly resilience produced within criminal justice professionals.

A Study of XML models for data mining : representations, methods, and issues

With the increasing number of XML documents in varied domains, it has become essential to identify ways of finding interesting information from these documents. Data mining techniques were used to derive this interesting information. Mining on XML documents is impacted by its model due to the semi-structured nature of these documents. Hence, in this chapter we present an overview of the various models of XML documents, how these models were used for mining and some of the issues and challenges in these models. In addition, this chapter also provides some insights into the future models of XML documents for effectively capturing the two important features namely structure and content of XML documents for mining.

The impact of mental health literacy on help-seeking intentions : results of a pilot study with first year psychology students

Although mental health literacy has been proposed as a factor that may facilitate help-seeking, few studies have examined this relation. This pilot study aimed to investigate the relation between mental health literacy and help-seeking intentions, and to explore which components of mental health literacy may be best able to predict help-seeking intentions. An online questionnaire was completed by a convenience sample of 150 university students enrolled in a psychology unit, aged between 17 and 26 years. A simultaneous multiple regression indicated that higher levels of mental health literacy were able to predict greater intentions to seek help from professional sources. A number of mental health literacy components made a unique and significant contribution to the prediction of help-seeking intentions. The findings of this pilot study indicate that the role of mental health literacy in facilitating help-seeking is a promising area of research.

A Systematic Review of kinematic models used in foot & ankle biomechanics

Over the past decade our understanding of foot function has increased significantly[1,2]. Our understanding of foot and ankle biomechanics appears to be directly correlated to advances in models used to assess and quantify kinematic parameters in gait. These advances in models in turn lead to greater detail in the data. However, we must consider that the level of complexity is determined by the question or task being analysed. This systematic review aims to provide a critical appraisal of commonly used marker sets and foot models to assess foot and ankle kinematics in a wide variety of clinical and research purposes.

Clinical utility of mental state screening as a predictor of intellectual outcomes 6 months after diagnosis of type 1 diabetes

Background Screening tests of basic cognitive status or ‘mental state’ have been shown to predict mortality and functional outcomes in adults. This study examined the relationship between mental state and outcomes in children with type 1 diabetes. Objective We aimed to determine whether mental state at diagnosis predicts longer term cognitive function of children with a new diagnosis of type 1 diabetes. Methods Mental state of 87 patients presenting with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes was assessed using the School-Years Screening Test for the Evaluation of Mental Status. Cognitive abilities were assessed 1 wk and 6 months postdiagnosis using standardized tests of attention, memory, and intelligence. Results Thirty-seven children (42.5%) had reduced mental state at diagnosis. Children with impaired mental state had poorer attention and memory in the week following diagnosis, and, after controlling for possible confounding factors, significantly lower IQ at 6 months compared to those with unimpaired mental state (p < 0.05). Conclusions Cognition is impaired acutely in a significant number of children presenting with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. Mental state screening is an effective method of identifying children at risk of ongoing cognitive difficulties in the days and months following diagnosis. Clinicians may consider mental state screening for all newly diagnosed diabetic children to identify those at risk of cognitive sequelae.

Isotactics as a foundation for alignment and abstraction of behavioral models

There are many use cases in business process management that require the comparison of behavioral models. For instance, verifying equivalence is the basis for assessing whether a technical workflow correctly implements a business process, or whether a process realization conforms to a reference process. This paper proposes an equivalence relation for models that describe behaviors based on the concurrency semantics of net theory and for which an alignment relation has been defined. This equivalence, called isotactics, preserves the level of concurrency of aligned operations. Furthermore, we elaborate on the conditions under which an alignment relation can be classified as an abstraction. Finally, we show that alignment relations induced by structural refinements of behavioral models are indeed behavioral abstractions.