938 resultados para probability indicator
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Hyaluronan (HA) shows promise for detecting cancerous change in pleural effusion and urine. However, there is uncertainty about the localization of HA in tumor tissue and its relationship with different histological types and other components of the extracellular matrix, such as angiogenesis. We evaluated the association between HA and degree of malignancy through expression in lung tumor tissue and sputum. Tumoral tissue had significantly increased HA compared to normal tissue. Strong HA staining intensity associated with cancer cells was significant in squamous cell carcinoma compared to adenocarcinoma and large cell carcinoma. A significant direct association was found between tumors with a high percentage of HA and MVD (microvessel density) in tumoral stroma. Similarly significant was the direct association between N1 tumors and high levels of HA in cancer cells. Cox multivariate analysis showed significant association between better survival and low HA. HA increased in sputum from lung cancer patients compared to cancer-free and healthy volunteers and a significant correlation was found between HA in sputum and HA in cancer tissue. Localization of HA in tumor tissue was related to malignancy and reflected in sputum, making this an emerging factor for an important diagnostic procedure in patients suspected to have lung cancer. Further study in additional patients in a randomized prospective trial is required to finalize these results and to validate our quantitative assessment of HA, as well as to couple it to gold standard sputum cytology.
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Dissertação de mestrado em Educação Especial (área de especialização em Intervenção Precoce)
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In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.
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OBJECTIVE: To identify the left inferior pulmonary vein as an indirect marker of increased pulmonary flow in congenital heart diseases.METHODS: We carried out a prospective consecutive study on 40 patients divided into 2 groups as follows: G1 - 20 patients diagnosed with congenital heart disease and increased pulmonary flow; G2 (control group) - 20 patients who were either healthy or had congenital heart disease with decreased or normal pulmonary flow. We obtained the velocity-time integral of the left inferior pulmonary vein flow, excluding the "reverse A" wave, with pulsed Doppler echocardiography.RESULTS: In G1, 19 out of the 20 patients had well-identified dilation of the left inferior pulmonary vein. No G2 patient had dilation of the left inferior pulmonary vein. Dilation of the left inferior pulmonary vein in conditions of increased pulmonary flow had sensitivity of 95%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100%, and negative predictive value of 95% (1 false-negative case). The integral of time and velocity of the pulmonary venous flow obtained with pulsed Doppler echocardiography was greater in the G1 patients (G1=25.0±4.6 cm versus G2=14.8±2.1 cm, p=0.0001).CONCLUSION: The identification of dilation of the left inferior pulmonary vein suggests the presence of congenital heart disease with increased pulmonary flow. This may be used as an indirect sign of increased flow, mainly in malformations of difficult diagnosis, such as atrial septal defects of the venous sinus or coronary sinus type.
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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik, Diss., 2007
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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2014
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The present notes are intended to present a detailed review of the existing results in dissipative kinetic theory which make use of the contraction properties of two main families of probability metrics: optimal mass transport and Fourier-based metrics. The first part of the notes is devoted to a self-consistent summary and presentation of the properties of both probability metrics, including new aspects on the relationships between them and other metrics of wide use in probability theory. These results are of independent interest with potential use in other contexts in Partial Differential Equations and Probability Theory. The second part of the notes makes a different presentation of the asymptotic behavior of Inelastic Maxwell Models than the one presented in the literature and it shows a new example of application: particle's bath heating. We show how starting from the contraction properties in probability metrics, one can deduce the existence, uniqueness and asymptotic stability in classical spaces. A global strategy with this aim is set up and applied in two dissipative models.
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A virus antigenic characterization methodology using an indirect method of antibody detection ELISA with virus-infected cultured cells as antigen and a micro virus neutralisation test using EIA (NT-EIA) as an aid to reading were used for antigenic characterization of Jatobal (BeAn 423380). Jatobal virus was characterized as a Bunyaviridae, Bunyavirus genus, Simbu serogroup virus. ELISA using infected cultured cells as antigen is a sensitive and reliable method for identification of viruses and has many advantages over conventional antibody capture ELISA's and other tests: it eliminates solid phase coating with virus and laborious antigen preparation; it permits screening of large numbers of virus antisera faster and more easily than by CF, HAI, or plaque reduction NT. ELISA and NT using EIA as an aid to reading can be applicable to viruses which do not produce cytopathogenic effect. Both techniques are applicable to identification of viruses which grow in mosquito cells.
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The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of residential job accessibility on female employment probability in the metropolitan areas of Barcelona and Madrid. Following a “spatial mismatch” framework, we estimate a female employment probability equation where variables controlling for personal characteristics, residential segregation and employment potential on public transport network are included. Data used come from Microcensus 2001 of INE (National Institute of Statistics). The research focuses on the treatment of endogeneity problems and the measurement of accessibility variables. Our results show that low job accessibility in public transport negatively affects employment probability. The intensity of this effect tends to decrease with individual’s educational attainment. A higher degree of residential segregation also reduces job probability in a significant way..
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This study presents the first empirical analysis of the determinants of firm closure in the UK with an emphasis on the role of export-market dynamics, using panel data for a nationally representative group of firms operating in all-market based sectors during 1997-2003. Our findings show that the probability of closure is (cet. par.) significantly lower for exporters, particularly those experiencing export-market entry and exit. Having controlled for other attributes associated with productivity (such as size and export status), the following factors are found to increase the firm’s survival prospects: higher capital intensity and TFP, foreign ownership, young age, displacement effects (through relatively high rates of entry of firms in each industry), and belonging to certain industries. Interestingly, increased import penetration (a proxy for lower trade costs) leads to a lower hazard rate for exporting entrants and continuous exporters, whilst inducing a higher hazard rate for domestic producers or those that quit exporting.
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We use basic probability theory and simple replicable electronic search experiments to evaluate some reported “myths” surrounding the origins and evolution of the QWERTY standard. The resulting evidence is strongly supportive of arguments put forward by Paul A. David (1985) and W. Brian Arthur (1989) that QWERTY was path dependent with its course of development strongly influenced by specific historical circumstances. The results also include the unexpected finding that QWERTY was as close to an optimal solution to a serious but transient problem as could be expected with the resources at the disposal of its designers in 1873.
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Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.
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ABSTRACTA significant share of deliveries are performed by Cesarian section (C-section) in Europe and in many developed and developing countries. The aims of this thesis are to highlight the non medical, especially economic and financial, incentives that explain the use of C-section, as well as the medical consequences of C-section on women's health, in regard with other factors of ob¬stetrical care quality such as hospital concentration. Those diagnoses enable us to exhibit ways of improvement of obstetrical care quality in France. Our analysis focus on two countries, France and Switzerland. In the first part of the thesis, we show the influence of two non medical factors on the C-section use, namely the hospital payment system on the one hand and the obstetricians behaviour, especially their demand for leisure, on the other hand. With French data on the year 2003, we show firstly that the fee-for-service payment system of private for profit hospitals induces a higher probability of using C-section. Obstetricians play also a preeminent role in the decision to use a C-section, as the probability of a C-section rises with the number of obstetricians. We then focus on a French reform introduced in 2004, to investigate the impact of Prospective Payment System on obstetric practise. We show that the rise of C-section rate between 2003 and 2006 is mainly caused by changes in hospitals and patients features. Obstetricians practises do not vary a lot for patients with the same risk code. In the mean time however, the number of women coded with a high risk rises. This can be caused by improvements in the quality of coding, obstetricians chosing codes that match better the real health state of their patients. Yet, it can also show that obstetricians change their coding practises to justify the use of certain practises, such as C-section, with no regard to the health state of patients. Financial factors are not the only non medical fac¬tors that can influence the resort to C-section. Using Shelton Brown ΠΙ identification strategy, we focus on the potential impact of obstetricians leisure preference on the use of C-section. We use the distributions of days and hours of delivering and the types of C-section - planned or emergency C-sections - to show that the obstetricians demand for leisure has a significant impact on the resort to C-section, but only in emergency situations. The second part of the thesis deals with some ways to improve obstetric care quality. We use on the one hand swiss and french data to study the impact of C-section on the patients' probability of having an obstetric complication and on the other hand the influence of hospital concentration on the quality of obstetric care. We find the same results as former medical studies about the risks entailed by C-section on obstetric complications.These results prove women ought to be better informed of the medical consequences of C-section and that the slowing of C-section use should be a priority of public health policy. We finally focus on another way to improve obstetric care quality, that is hospital lmarket concentration. We investigate the impact of hospital concentration by integrating the Herfindahl-Hirschman index in our model, on health care quality, measured by the HCUP indicator. We find that hospital concentration has a negative impact on obstetric care quality, which undermines today's policy of hospital closings in France.JEL classification: 112; 118Keywords: Hospital; C-section; Payment System; Counterfactual Estimation; Quality of Care.RÉSUMÉUne part importante des accouchements sont réalisés par césarienne en Europe et dans de nom¬breux pays développés ou en développement. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont de mettre en évidence les déterminants non médicaux, notamment économiques et financiers, expliquant le développe¬ment de cette pratique, ainsi que ses conséquences sur la santé des femmes après Γ accouchement, en lien avec d'autres facteurs comme la concentration locale des structures hospitalières. Les résul¬tats exposés dans cette thèse éclairent les perspectives et voies d'amélioration de la qualité des soins en obstétriques.Notre analyse se concentre sur deux pays : la France et la Suisse. Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous mettons en évidence l'influence de deux déterminants non médicaux sur l'emploi de la césarienne : le système de paiement des hôpitaux d'une part, et le comportement des médecins obstétriciens d'autre part. En étudiant des données françaises de 2003, nous montrons d'abord que le financement à l'acte des établissements privés engendre une hausse de la proba¬bilité de pratiquer une césarienne. Le rôle de l'obstrétricien paraît également déterminant dans la décision d'opérer une césarienne, la probabilité d'employer cette technique augmentant avec le nombre d'obstétriciens. Nous nous intéressons ensuite à l'impact de la mise en place en 2004 du système de paiement prospectif sur l'évolution des pratiques obstétricales entre 2003 et 2006 en France. La hausse du taux de recours à la césarienne entre 2004 et 2006 peut ainsi être principa¬lement imputée aux évolutions des caractéristiques des hôpitaux et des patients, les pratiques des obstétriciens, pour un même codage de la situation du patient, variant peu. Dans le même temps cependant, les pratiques de codage des patients parles obstétriciens évoluent fortement, les femmes étant de plus en plus nombreuses à porter des codes correspondant à des situations à risques. Cette évolution peut indiquer que la qualité du codage en 2006 s'est améliorée par rapport à 2004, le codage correspondant de plus en plus à la situation réelle des patientes. H peut aussi indiquer que les pratiques de codage évoluent pour justifier un recours accru à la césarienne, sans lien avec l'état réel des patientes. Les facteurs financiers ne sont pas les seuls facteurs non médicaux à pouvoir expliquer le recours à la césarienne : nous nous intéressons, en suivant la stratégie d'identifica¬tion de Shelton Brown m, à l'impact potentiel de la demande de loisir des médecins obstétriciens sur la pratique de la césarienne. En utilisant la distribution des jours et heures d'accouchement, et en distinguant les césariennes planifiées de celles effectuées en urgence, nous constatons que la demande de loisir des obstétriciens influence significativement le recours à la césarienne, mais uni¬quement pour les interventions d'urgence. La deuxième partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude de la qualité des soins en obstétriques. Nous utilisons des données suisses et françaises pour analyser d'une part l'impact de la césarienne sur la survenue de complications obstétricales et d'autre part l'impact de la concentration des soins sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique. Nons confirmons les résultats antérieurs de la littérature médicale sur la dangerosité de la césarienne comme facteur de complications obstétricales. Ces conclusions montrent que les femmes ont besoin d'être informées des conséquences de la césarienne sur leur santé et que le ralentissement de l'augmentation de la pratique de la césarienne devrait être un objectif de la politique publique de santé. Nous nous in¬téressons à un autre facteur d'amélioration des soins en obstrétique, l'organisation des hôpitaux et particulièrement leur concentration. Nous estimons ainsi l'effet de la concentration sur la qualité des soins obstétriques en intégrant l'indice de Herfindahl-Hirschman dans notre modèle, la qualité des soins étant mesurée à l'aide de l'indicateur HCUP. Nous constatons que la concentration des naissances a un impact négatif sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique, résultat qui va dans le sens contraire des politiques de fermeture d'hôpitaux menées actuellement en France. JEL classification : 112 ; 118Mots-clés : Hôpital ; Césarienne ; Système de paiement ; Contrefactuels ; Qualité des soins, sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique.