908 resultados para probability and reinforcement proportion


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Buddhism, the Thai state religion, teaches that use of intoxicants should be avoided. Nonetheless, many Thai people drink alcohol, and a proportion are alcohol-dependent or hazardous or harmful drinkers. This study examines the relationship between Buddhist upbringing and beliefs and alcohol use disorders in Thai men. Three groups, comprising 144 non/infrequent/light drinkers, 77 hazardous/harmful drinkers and 91 alcohol dependents were inter-viewed regarding their early religious life and current religious practices and beliefs. No protective association was shown between early religious life and later alcohol use disorders, indeed, having lived as a buy in a temple for a period was commoner in those with adult alcohol problems. Few subjects reported frequent involvement in current religious activities (9, 8 and 6% in the non/infrequent/light drinkers, hazardous/harmful drinkers, and alcohol dependents respectively). Hazardous/harmful drinkers [odds ratio (OR) = 0.4, 95% confidence interval (0) = 0.2-0.9] and alcohol dependents (OR = 0.5, 95% Cl = 0.2-0.9) were less likely to report being moderately to strongly religious, than were non/infrequent/light drinkers, Understanding the association between religious beliefs and drinking behaviour can potentially assist in the development of prevention and treatment programmes.

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Epidemiological studies of drug misusers have until recently relied on two main forms of sampling: probability and convenience. The former has been used when the aim was simply to estimate the prevalence of the condition and the latter when in depth studies of the characteristics, profiles and behaviour of drug users were required, but each method has its limitations. Probability samples become impracticable when the prevalence of the condition is very low, less than 0.5% for example, or when the condition being studied is a clandestine activity such as illicit drug use. When stratified random samples are used, it may be difficult to obtain a truly representative sample, depending on the quality of the information used to develop the stratification strategy. The main limitation of studies using convenience samples is that the results cannot be generalised to the whole population of drug users due to selection bias and a lack of information concerning the sampling frame. New methods have been developed which aim to overcome some of these difficulties, for example, social network analysis, snowball sampling, capture-recapture techniques, privileged access interviewer method and contact tracing. All these methods have been applied to the study of drug misuse. The various methods are described and examples of their use given, drawn from both the Brazilian and international drug misuse literature.

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OBJECTIVES: The current study set out to investigate alcohol availability in a densely populated, residential area of suburban São Paulo associated with high levels of social deprivation and violence. Gun-related deaths and a heavy concentration of alcohol outlets are notable features of the area surveyed. Given the strong evidence for a link between alcohol availability and a number of alcohol-related problems, including violent crime, measures designed to reduce accessibility have become a favored choice for alcohol prevention programs in recent years. METHODS: The interviewers were 24 residents of the area who were trained for the study. It was selected an area of nineteen streets, covering a total distance of 3.7 km. A profile of each alcohol outlet available on the area was recorded. RESULTS: One hundred and seven alcohol outlets were recorded. The number of other properties in the same area was counted at 1,202. Two measures of outlet density may thus be calculated: the number of outlets per kilometer of roadway (29 outlets/km); and the proportion of all properties that sold alcohol (1 in 12). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study is compared with others which are mainly from developed countries and shown that the area studied have the highest density of alcohol outlet density ever recorded in the medical literature. The implication of this data related to the violence of the region is discussed. By generating a profile of alcohol sales and selling points, it was hoped to gain a better understanding of alcohol access issues within the sample area. Future alcohol prevention policy would be well served by such knowledge.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence and identify correlates of physical activity among adolescents. METHODS: Cross-sectional study nested within a cohort of 4,325 subjects from the city of Pelotas, Southern Brazil, aged 14-15 years in 2008. Physical activity was analyzed using three different approaches: (1) prevalence of any leisure-time physical activity; (2) prevalence of any active commuting to school; and (3) prevalence of engaging in at least 300 minutes per week of both (1) and (2) combined. Independent variables included sociodemographic, behavioral, social, and biological characteristics, and number of different leisure-time physical activites practiced. Statistical analyses were carried out using Poisson regression. RESULTS: The proportion of adolescents involved in any type of leisure-time physical activity was 75.6%, while 73.4% displayed some form of active commuting to school. Prevalence of total physical activity score (> 300 min/week) was 48.2%, being greater among boys (62.6%) than among girls (34.5%). Furthermore, prevalence increased along with the number of physical activity modalities practiced (p<0.001). Factors associated with greater physical activity (leisure + commuting) at the recommended levels were: nonwhite skin color, having failed at school, and playing videogames. Lower socioeconomic status, more time spent on the computer, and parental physical activity were associated with the outcome only among girls. CONCLUSIONS: Less than half the adolescents reached recommended levels of physical activity, and this proportion tended to decrease among subjects with higher socioeconomic level. Associated factors were different for leisure-time and commuting. Engaging in a wide variety of physical activities should be encouraged already during childhood.

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Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) is a technique introduced to shape more precisely the dose distributions to the tumour, providing a higher dose escalation in the volume to irradiate and simultaneously decreasing the dose in the organs at risk which consequently reduces the treatment toxicity. This technique is widely used in prostate and head and neck (H&N) tumours. Given the complexity and the use of high doses in this technique it’s necessary to ensure as a safe and secure administration of the treatment, through the use of quality control programmes for IMRT. The purpose of this study was to evaluate statistically the quality control measurements that are made for the IMRT plans in prostate and H&N patients, before the beginning of the treatment, analysing their variations, the percentage of rejected and repeated measurements, the average, standard deviations and the proportion relations.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalences of tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis in inmates. METHODS: Observational study was carried out with inmates of a prison and a jail in the State of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between March and December of 2008. Questionnaires were used to collect sociodemographic and epidemiological data. Tuberculin skin testing was administered (PPD-RT23-2TU/0.1 mL), and the following laboratory tests were also performed: sputum smear examination, sputum culture, identification of strains isolated and drug susceptibility testing. The variables were compared using Pearson's chi-square (Χ2) association test, Fisher's exact test and the proportion test. RESULTS: Of the 2,435 inmates interviewed, 2,237 (91.9%) agreed to submit to tuberculin skin testing and of these, 73.0% had positive reactions. The prevalence of tuberculosis was 830.6 per 100,000 inmates. The coefficients of prevalence were 1,029.5/100,000 for inmates of the prison and 525.7/100,000 for inmates of the jail. The sociodemographic characteristics of the inmates in the two groups studied were similar; most of the inmates were young and single with little schooling. The epidemiological characteristics differed between the prison units, with the number of cases of previous tuberculosis and of previous contact with the disease greater in the prison and coughing, expectoration and smoking more common in the jail. Among the 20 Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains identified, 95.0% were sensitive to anti-tuberculosis drugs, and 5.0% were resistant to streptomycin. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalences of tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis were higher in the incarcerated population than in the general population, and they were also higher in the prison than in the jail.

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In this study, efforts were made in order to put forward an integrated recycling approach for the thermoset based glass fibre reinforced polymer (GPRP) rejects derived from the pultrusion manufacturing industry. Both the recycling process and the development of a new cost-effective end-use application for the recyclates were considered. For this purpose, i) among the several available recycling techniques for thermoset based composite materials, the most suitable one for the envisaged application was selected (mechanical recycling); and ii) an experimental work was carried out in order to assess the added-value of the obtained recyclates as aggregates and reinforcement replacements into concrete-polymer composite materials. Potential recycling solution was assessed by mechanical behaviour of resultant GFRP waste modified concrete-polymer composites with regard to unmodified materials. In the mix design process of the new GFRP waste based composite material, the recyclate content and size grade, and the effect of the incorporation of an adhesion promoter were considered as material factors and systematically tested between reasonable ranges. The optimization process of the modified formulations was supported by the Fuzzy Boolean Nets methodology, which allowed finding the best balance between material parameters that maximizes both flexural and compressive strengths of final composite. Comparing to related end-use applications of GFRP wastes in cementitious based concrete materials, the proposed solution overcome some of the problems found, namely the possible incompatibilities arisen from alkalis-silica reaction and the decrease in the mechanical properties due to high water-cement ratio required to achieve the desirable workability. Obtained results were very promising towards a global cost-effective waste management solution for GFRP industrial wastes and end-of-life products that will lead to a more sustainable composite materials industry.

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OBJECTIVE To analyze hospitalization rates and the proportion of deaths due to ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalizations and to characterize them according to coverage by the Family Health Strategy, a primary health care guidance program. METHODS An ecological study comprising 853 municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais, under the purview of 28 regional health care units, was conducted. We used data from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Unified Health System. Ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalizations in 2000 and 2010 were compared. Population data were obtained from the demographic censuses. RESULTS The number of ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalizations declined from 20.75/1,000 inhabitants [standard deviation (SD) = 10.42) in 2000 to 14.92/thousand inhabitants (SD = 10.04) in 2010 Heart failure was the most frequent cause in both years. Hospitalizations rates for hypertension, asthma, and diabetes mellitus, decreased, whereas those for angina pectoris, prenatal and birth disorders, kidney and urinary tract infections, and other acute infections increased. Hospitalization durations and the proportion of deaths due to ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalizations increased significantly. CONCLUSIONS Mean hospitalization rates for sensitive conditions were significantly lower in 2010 than in 2000, but no correlation was found with regard to the expansion of the population coverage of the Family Health Strategy. Hospitalization rates and proportion of deaths were different between the various health care regions in the years evaluated, indicating a need to prioritize the primary health care with high efficiency and quality.

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Stair nesting allows us to work with fewer observations than the most usual form of nesting, the balanced nesting. In the case of stair nesting the amount of information for the different factors is more evenly distributed. This new design leads to greater economy, because we can work with fewer observations. In this work we present the algebraic structure of the cross of balanced nested and stair nested designs, using binary operations on commutative Jordan algebras. This new cross requires fewer observations than the usual cross balanced nested designs and it is easy to carry out inference.

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This work is a contribution to the definition and assessment of structural robustness. Special emphasis is given to reliability of reinforced concrete structures under corrosion of longitudinal reinforcement. On this communication several authors’ proposals in order to define and measure structural robustness are analyzed and discussed. The probabilistic based robustness index is defined, considering the reliability index decreasing for all possible damage levels. Damage is considered as the corrosion level of the longitudinal reinforcement in terms of rebar weight loss. Damage produces changes in both cross sectional area of rebar and bond strength. The proposed methodology is illustrated by means of an application example. In order to consider the impact of reinforcement corrosion on failure probability growth, an advanced methodology based on the strong discontinuities approach and an isotropic continuum damage model for concrete is adopted. The methodology consist on a two-step analysis: on the first step an analysis of the cross section is performed in order to capture phenomena such as expansion of the reinforcement due to the corrosion products accumulation and damage and cracking in the reinforcement surrounding concrete; on the second step a 2D deteriorated structural model is built with the results obtained on the first step of the analysis. The referred methodology combined with a Monte Carlo simulation is then used to compute the failure probability and the reliability index of the structure for different corrosion levels. Finally, structural robustness is assessed using the proposed probabilistic index.

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Paracoccidioidomycosis is a chronic granulomatous disease that induces a specific inflammatory and immune response. The participation of nitric oxide (NO), a product of the inducible nitric oxide synthase enzyme (iNOS), as an important fungicidal molecule against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis has been demonstrated. In order to further characterize the Oral Paracoccidioidomycosis (OP), we undertook an immunohistochemical study of iNOS+, CD45RO+, CD3+, CD8+, CD20+, CD68+ cells and mast cells. The samples were distributed in groups according to the number of viable fungi per mm². Our results showed weak immunolabeling for iNOS in the multinucleated giant cells (MNGC) and in most of the mononuclear (MN) cells, and the proportion of iNOS+ MN/MNGC cells in the OP were comparable to Control (clinically healthy oral tissues). Additionally, our analysis revealed a similarity in the number of CD4+ cells between the Control and the OP groups with higher numbers of fungi. These findings suggest that a low expression of iNOS and a decrease in the CD4+ T cells in OP may represent possible mechanisms that permit the local fungal multiplication and maintenance of active oral lesions.

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Introduction Vector seasonality knowledge is important for monitoring and controlling of vector-borne diseases. Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lu. longipalpis) is the main vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum Nicolle, 1908, which is the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas. Methods Lu. longipalpis was monitored for 3 consecutive nights each month using light traps from the Centers for Disease Control in the peridomiciles and intradomiciles of 18 residences from January 2005 to December 2012 in the urban area of Dracena, a medium-sized city located in the western region of São Paulo, Brazil. Results A total of 54,820 Lu. longipalpis specimens were collected, and the proportion of positive samples was significantly higher in the peridomiciles than in the intradomiciles (p<0.05) in all 8 years of the study, except for 2005. The vector was present in all study years in the 9 sub-regions of the city, and the male/female ratio ranged from 3.19 to 4.26. The greatest vector abundance occurred in the first semester and peaked in March, confirming its seasonality. Conclusions The maintenance of this high abundance over an 8-year surveillance period demonstrates the vector adaptation to the urban conditions of the city. These characteristics present a major challenge for preventing human and canine contact with the vector and, consequently, controlling the spread of disease.

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Seismic investigations of typical south European masonry infilled frames were performed by testing two reduced scale specimens: one in the in-plane direction and another in the out-ofplane direction. Information about geometry and reinforcement scheme of those structures constructed in 1980s were obtained by [1]. The specimen to be tested in the in-plane direction was constructed as double leaf masonry while the specimen for testing in the out-of-plane direction is constructed with only its exterior leaf since the recent earthquakes have highlighted the vulnerability of the external leaf of the infills in out-of-plane direction [2]. The tests were performed by applying the pre-defined values of displacements in the in-plane and out-of-plane directions in the control points. For in-plane testing it was done by hydraulic actuator and for out-of-plane testing through the application of an airbag. Input and output air in the airbag was controlled by using a software to apply a specific displacement in the control point of the infill wall. Mid-point of the infill was assumed as a control point for outof- plane testing. Deformation and crack patterns of the infill confirm the formation of two-way arching mechanism of the masonry infill until collapse of the upper horizontal interface between infill and frame which is known as weakest interface due to difficulties in filling the mortar between bricks of last row and upper beam. This results in the crack opening through a welldefined path and the consequent collapse of the infill.

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OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the citotoxic activity of two commonly used anti-depressants: paroxetine and bupropion. We also evaluated the in vitro natural killer activity (NKA) after incubating the blood samples with the antidepressants. METHODS: Peripheral blood samples from 15 healthy volunteers were collected and the mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were isolated and incubated for 24h with (or without = control cells) paroxetine and bupropion, in concentrations of 30, 100 and 1000 ng/ml. After the incubation period in both groups, the amount of dead cells was calculated using trypam blue technique. NKA was evaluated using the classic51Cr release assay. CONCLUSIONS: PBMCs dead cells occurred in both groups and in proportion to all pharmacological concentrations. Nevertheless, the NKA was not affected, even with the reduction in the number of effective cells.

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Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.