Polypharmacy as predictor of drug cost, length of hospital stay and mortality rate in nursing homes : a retrospective analysis of pharmacy medication records

Background and objectives: Polypharmacy (PP) is a typical con-sequence of multiple chronic conditions in elderly patients. PP is commonly defined as the use of multiple concurrent drug therapies although a standard definition is not used. The aims of this study were to assess the PP rate among nursing home (NH) residents using the data of the pharmacy medication records and to investigate the threshold level of PP as predictor of drug cost, length of hospital stay and mortality rate

Agreement in interpersonal perception as a predictor of group performance

The present work deals with quantifying group characteristics. Specifically, dyadic measures of interpersonal perceptions were used to forecast group performance. 46 groups of students, 24 of four and 22 of five people, were studied in a real educational assignment context and marks were gathered as an indicator of group performance. Our results show that dyadic measures of interpersonal perceptions account for final marks. By means of linear regression analysis 85% and 85.6% of group performance was respectively explained for group sizes equal to four and five. Results found in the scientific literature based on the individualistic approach are no larger than 18%. The results of the present study support the utility of dyadic approaches for predicting group performance in social contexts.

Smith Predictor Sliding Mode Closed-loop Glucose Controller in Type 1 Diabetes

Type 1 diabetic patients depend on external insulin delivery to keep their blood glucose within near-normal ranges. In this work, two robust closed-loop controllers for blood glucose regulation are developed to prevent the life-threatening hypoglycemia, as well as to avoid extended hyperglycemia. The proposed controllers are designed by using the sliding mode control technique in a Smith predictor structure. To improve meal disturbance rejection, a simple feedforward controller is added to inject meal-time insulin bolus. Simulations scenarios were used to test the controllers, and showed the controllers ability to maintain the glucose levels within the safe limits in the presence of errors in measurements, modeling and meal estimation

Tachycardia is a strong predictor of cardiovascular events in the value trial

Objective: Tachycardia is associated with hypertension and is a predictor of cardiovascular events. The predictive effect of tachycardia might reflect its connection with hypertension. In this analysis of 15,245 VALUE study patients we explore whether tachycardia predicts cardiovascular endpoints in high risk hypertension and whether the in-trial blood pressure lowering modified the tachycardia - related risk. Methods: Heart rate from ECG readings at baseline and annually throughout the trial. Results: In the Cox Regression analysis the primary endpoint hazard ratio for a 10 beats per minute increment of baseline heart rate was 1.16 (1.12-1.2) p < 0.0001, 1.17 (1.13-1.22) p < 0.0001 and 1.22 (1.18-1.27) p < 0.0001 unadjusted, adjusted for baseline blood pressure and for blood pressure plus risk factors, respectively. Primary endpoints strikingly increased in the highest quintile of baseline heart rate (=/>79 beats). Primary endpoints in the highest heart rate quintile were 30 % higher in first, 55 % in second, 55 % in third, 52 % in fourth and 46 % in the fifth year of the study. The in-trial heart rate was also a potent predictor. The primary endpoint hazard ratios of highest heart rate quintile versus pooled lower 4 quintiles was (1.34-1.66) p < 0.0001 unadjusted, 1.52 (1.36-1.69) p <0.0001 adjusted for baseline blood pressure and risk factors and 1.52 (1.36-1.69) p < 0.0001 further adjusted for in trial pressure. The increase of primary events in the upper quintile of in-trial heart rate was 68% in the group with good and 63% in the group with inadequate blood pressure control (both p < 0.0001 by log rank test). Conclusions: 1./ Tachycardia is a short term marker and a long term predictor of adverse event in high risk hypertension. 2./ Tachycardia contributes to the residual cardiovascular risk regardless of the degree of BP control. We hypothesize heart rate lowering with appropriate drugs may further decrease the cardiovascular risk in patients with high risk hypertension and tachycardia.

Fetal testosterone (2D:4D) as predictor of cognitive reflection

The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) is a test introduced by S. Frederick (2005) Cognitive reflection and decision making, J Econ Perspect 19(4): 25-42. The task is designed to measure the tendency to override an intuitive response that is incorrect and to engage in further reflection that leads to the correct response. The consistent sex differences in CRT performance may suggest a role for gonadal hormones, particularly testosterone. A now widely studied putative marker for fetal testosterone is the second-to-fourth digit ratio (2D:4D). This paper tests to what extent 2D:4D, as a proxy for prenatal exposure to testosterone, can predict CRT scores in a sample of 623 students. After controlling for sex, we observe that a lower 2D:4D (reflecting a higher exposure to testosterone) is significantly associated with a higher number of correct answers. The result holds for both hands? 2D:4Ds. In addition, the effect appears to be sharper for females than for males. We also control for patience and math proficiency, which are significantly related to performance in the CRT. But the effect of 2D:4D on performance in CRT is not reduced with these controls, implying that these variables are not mediating the relationship between digit ratio and CRT.

IFN Stimulated Gene Expression in the Liver is a Better Predictor of Treatment Response in Chronic Hepatitis C than the IL28B (IFN lambda 3) Genotype

BACKGROUND: Therapy of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with pegIFNα/ribavirin achieves a sustained virologic response (SVR) in ∼55%. Pre-activation of the endogenous interferon system in the liver is associated with non-response (NR). Recently, genome-wide association studies described associations of allelic variants near the IL28B (IFNλ3) gene with treatment response and with spontaneous clearance of the virus. We investigated if the IL28B genotype determines the constitutive expression of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs) in the liver of patients with CHC. METHODS: We genotyped 93 patients with CHC for 3 IL28B single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, rs12979860, rs8099917, rs12980275), extracted RNA from their liver biopsies and quantified the expression of IL28B and of 8 previously identified classifier genes which discriminate between SVR and NR (IFI44L, RSAD2, ISG15, IFI22, LAMP3, OAS3, LGALS3BP and HTATIP2). Decision tree ensembles in the form of a random forest classifier were used to calculate the relative predictive power of these different variables in a multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The minor IL28B allele (bad risk for treatment response) was significantly associated with increased expression of ISGs, and, unexpectedly, with decreased expression of IL28B. Stratification of the patients into SVR and NR revealed that ISG expression was conditionally independent from the IL28B genotype, i.e. there was an increased expression of ISGs in NR compared to SVR irrespective of the IL28B genotype. The random forest feature score (RFFS) identified IFI27 (RFFS = 2.93), RSAD2 (1.88) and HTATIP2 (1.50) expression and the HCV genotype (1.62) as the strongest predictors of treatment response. ROC curves of the IL28B SNPs showed an AUC of 0.66 with an error rate (ERR) of 0.38. A classifier with the 3 best classifying genes showed an excellent test performance with an AUC of 0.94 and ERR of 0.15. The addition of IL28B genotype information did not improve the predictive power of the 3-gene classifier. CONCLUSIONS: IL28B genotype and hepatic ISG expression are conditionally independent predictors of treatment response in CHC. There is no direct link between altered IFNλ3 expression and pre-activation of the endogenous system in the liver. Hepatic ISG expression is by far the better predictor for treatment response than IL28B genotype.

A new early and automated MRI-based predictor of motor improvement after stroke.

OBJECTIVES: In this study, we investigated the structural plasticity of the contralesional motor network in ischemic stroke patients using diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and explored a model that combines a MRI-based metric of contralesional network integrity and clinical data to predict functional outcome at 6 months after stroke. METHODS: MRI and clinical examinations were performed in 12 patients in the acute phase, at 1 and 6 months after stroke. Twelve age- and gender-matched controls underwent 2 MRIs 1 month apart. Structural remodeling after stroke was assessed using diffusion MRI with an automated measurement of generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA), which was calculated along connections between contralesional cortical motor areas. The predictive model of poststroke functional outcome was computed using a linear regression of acute GFA measures and the clinical assessment. RESULTS: GFA changes in the contralesional motor tracts were found in all patients and differed significantly from controls (0.001 ≤ p < 0.05). GFA changes in intrahemispheric and interhemispheric motor tracts correlated with age (p ≤ 0.01); those in intrahemispheric motor tracts correlated strongly with clinical scores and stroke sizes (p ≤ 0.001). GFA measured in the acute phase together with a routine motor score and age were a strong predictor of motor outcome at 6 months (r(2) = 0.96, p = 0.0002). CONCLUSION: These findings represent a proof of principle that contralesional diffusion MRI measures may provide reliable information for personalized rehabilitation planning after ischemic motor stroke. Neurology® 2012;79:39-46.

Success of thrombolysis as a predictor of outcome in acute thrombosis of popliteal aneurysms.

PURPOSE: Acute limb ischemia after thrombosis of a popliteal aneurysm is a distinct and limb-threatening entity. Preoperative intra-arterial thrombolysis may improve the outcome in this challenging situation. This study retrospectively analyzed a consecutive series of patients treated with preoperative thrombolysis and subsequent revascularization. METHODS: Thirteen patients with acute limb ischemia caused by thrombosis of a popliteal aneurysm underwent catheter-directed intra-arterial thrombolysis with urokinase and subsequent vascular reconstruction. The angiographic and clinical outcome was analyzed and compared with that in the literature. RESULTS: Complete aneurysm thrombosis with absence of runoff was documented in 12 cases. Thrombolysis restored perfusion with patency of the popliteal artery and a one- or two-vessel runoff in 77% of cases (10/13). Early cumulative graft patency and limb salvage rates were 68% and 83%, respectively, with an ankle/brachial index of 0.8 +/- 0.2. Lytic failure followed by attempts at bypass grafting was present in three patients (23%) and resulted in above-knee amputation. Severe rhabdomyolysis and fatal pulmonary embolism were responsible for a 15% early mortality rate. CONCLUSION: Preoperative thrombolysis followed by bypass grafting is a valid treatment option for patients who can withstand an additional period of ischemia that does not require immediate revascularization and intraoperative lysis. Lytic failure identifies patients with a highly compromised runoff who are probably best treated by means of subsequent amputation, without any attempts at bypass grafting.

Sagittal abdominal diameter is a better predictor than body mass index for duration of laparoscopic left colectomy.

BACKGROUND: Visceral obesity (VO) increases technical difficulty in laparoscopic surgery. The body mass index (BMI) does not always correlate to intra-abdominal fat distribution. Our hypothesis was that simple anthropometric measures that reflect VO, could predict technical difficulty in laparoscopic colorectal surgery, as reflected by the operative time, more accurately than the BMI. METHODS: Charts of all consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic left colon resection in our institution between 2007 and 2010 were reviewed retrospectively. On a preoperative CT scan, anthropometric measures were taken on an axial plane at the L4-L5 level. Demographic, operative and anthropometric CT measures were correlated with the operative time. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the value of anthropometric CT measures or BMI to predict the duration of the colectomy. RESULTS: 121 patients with elective left colon resection for benign (56%) or malignant disease (44%) were included. There were 74 sigmoid resections (61%), 21 left hemicolectomies (17%) and 26 low anterior resections (22%). A longer sagittal abdominal diameter (≥24.8 cm) was significantly associated with longer corrected operative time (248 vs. 228 min, p = 0.043). In multivariate analysis, greater sagittal abdominal diameter, sagittal internal diameter and abdominal perimeter were significantly associated with longer operative time. No significant association was found for the BMI neither in univariate nor in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that simple linear measures taken on a CT scan, such as sagittal abdominal diameter, sagittal internal diameter and abdominal perimeter, may predict longer operative time in laparoscopic left colonic resections more accurately than BMI.

Role of vitamin D deficiency in extraskeletal complications : predictor of health outcome or marker of health status?

The relationship of vitamin D with extraskeletal complications, such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, and autoimmune disease, is of major interest considering its roles in key biological processes and the worldwide high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency. However, the causal relationships between vitamin D and most extraskeletal complications are weak. Currently, a heated debate over vitamin D is being conducted according to two hypotheses. In this review, we first present the different arguments that suggest a major role of vitamin D in a very broad type of extraskeletal complications (hypothesis #1). We then present results from recent meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials indicating a lack of association of vitamin D with major extraskeletal complications (hypothesis #2). We discuss different issues (e.g., causality, confounding, reverse causation, misclassification, and Mendelian randomization) that contribute to the favoring of one hypothesis over the other. While ultimately only one hypothesis is correct, we anticipate that the results from the ongoing randomized controlled trials will be unlikely to reconcile the divided experts.

Self-reported nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy as a predictor of viral failure and mortality

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on virologic failure and mortality in naive individuals starting ART. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: Eligible individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, started ART between 2003 and 2012, and provided adherence data on at least one biannual clinical visit. Adherence was defined as missed doses (none, one, two, or more than two) and percentage adherence (>95, 90-95, and <90) in the previous 4 weeks. Inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to estimate the effect of nonadherence on viral failure (HIV-1 viral load >500 copies/ml) and mortality. RESULTS: Of 3150 individuals followed for a median 4.7 years, 480 (15.2%) experienced viral failure and 104 (3.3%) died, 1155 (36.6%) reported missing one dose, 414 (13.1%) two doses and, 333 (10.6%) more than two doses of ART. The risk of viral failure increased with each missed dose (one dose: hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.67; two doses: 2.15, 1.31-3.53; more than two doses: 5.21, 2.96-9.18). The risk of death increased with more than two missed doses (HR 4.87, 2.21-10.73). Missing one to two doses of ART increased the risk of viral failure in those starting once-daily (HR 1.67, 1.11-2.50) compared with those starting twice-daily regimens (HR 0.99, 0.64-1.54, interaction P = 0.09). Consistent results were found for percentage adherence. CONCLUSION: Self-report of two or more missed doses of ART is associated with an increased risk of both viral failure and death. A simple adherence question helps identify patients at risk for negative clinical outcomes and offers opportunities for intervention.

The ADO Index as a Predictor of Two-Year Mortality in General Practice-Based Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS: Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS: The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.