Ocorrência de diabetes melito em mulheres com hiperglicemia em gestação prévia

OBJETIVO: Verificar a freqüência com que ocorria intolerância à glicose (diabetes melito e tolerância à glicose diminuída) em mulheres cuja gestação foi acompanhada e avaliada quanto à tolerância à glicose. MÉTODOS: Num período de até 12 anos da gestação-alvo, de um total de 3.113 gestantes acompanhadas em um serviço de obstetrícia, 551 foram selecionadas por meio de um processo randômico, proporcional à representação dos grupos. Foram avaliadas 529, assim constituídas: 250 normotolerantes à glicose, grupo IA; 120 com hiperglicemia diária, grupo IB; 72 com o teste oral de tolerância à glicose alterado, grupo IIA; e 87 com o teste oral de tolerância à glicose alterado e hiperglicemia diária, grupo IIB. A avaliação constava da medida da glicemia de jejum, que entre 110 e 125 mg/dL, era seguida pelo teste oral de tolerância à glicose. RESULTADOS: A freqüência de ocorrência de diabetes foi 1,6, 16,7, 23,6 e 44,8% nos grupos IA, IB, IIA e IIB, respectivamente (IA <[IB=IIA]diabetes. CONCLUSÃO: Glicemias (perfil glicêmico) elevadas assim como o teste oral de tolerância à glicose alterado durante a gestação são igualmente eficazes em predizer o futuro desenvolvimento de diabetes materno; quando ambos os testes são alterados, tal prognóstico se agrava significativamente.

Sexual behaviour, sperm quantity and quality after short-term streptozotocin-induced hyperglycaemia in rats

Studies of diabetes mellitus in the streptozotocin rat model suggest that sexual dysfunctions may result from diabetes-induced alterations of the neuroendocrine-reproductive tract axis. Our investigation was performed to better define the effects of short-term hyperglycaemia on rat epididymal sperm quantity, quality and transit time, using both natural mating and artificial in utero insemination protocols. Male rats were made diabetic with streptozotocin (sc, 40 mg/kg), whereas controls received vehicle. Sexual behaviour was tested after 15 days and sperm fertilizing ability was checked 22 days after the injection through natural mating and artificial in utero insemination. Other parameters such as daily sperm production, testosterone levels, as well as sperm morphology and motility were also investigated. Fifty per cent of the diabetic animals showed no copulatory behaviour during tests and the number of animals reaching ejaculation was smaller in the diabetic group when compared with the control group (33% vs. 83%). Diabetes resulted in decreased body and reproductive organ weights, as well as diminished sperm counts in the testis and epididymis, that were associated with diminution of plasmatic testosterone levels. After natural mating, there was a decrease in the fertility in the diabetic adult male rats (25.5%) compared with control animals (81.5%). However, distal cauda epididymal sperm from diabetic rats displayed normal fertilization ability (91.5%) using in utero insemination. There were no effects of hyperglycaemia on sperm transit time in the epididymis and on spermatogenesis. Our results indicate that diabetes mellitus produces reproductive dysfunction, but does not compromise sperm fertilizing ability in the cauda epididymis in this experimental model.

Validity of malnutrition scores for predicting mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients

Purpose: Malnutrition is a strong predictor of mortality in hemodialysis patients. Several scoring systems for evaluating nutritional status have been proposed. However, they rely on different sets of anthropometric and laboratory markers to make a diagnosis of malnutrition and assess its impact on prognosis. To validate them, nutritional scores should be compared with clinical outcomes. Thus, the purpose of this study was to assess malnutrition by three different nutrition scoring systems and determine which best predicts mortality in hemodialysis patients. Methods: This prospective study included 106 adult chronic hemodialysis patients. Their mean age was 56.3 ± 14.9 years and mean body mass index 24.8 (21.8-28.9); 52 % were men and they had been on dialysis for 24 (5-55) months. Nutritional status was classified according to the diagnostic systems proposed by Wolfson et al. (Am J Clin Nutr 39(4):547-555, 1984), International Society of Renal Nutrition and Metabolism (ISRNM) (Fouque et al. in Kidney Int 73(4):391-398, 2008), and Beberashvili et al. (Nephrol Dial Transplant 25(8):2662-2671, 2010). During about 2 years of follow-up, mortality was assessed by Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank, and Cox's models adjusted for diabetes, sex, C-reactive protein, time on dialysis, age, and fractional urea clearance. Results: Twenty-three deaths (21.5 %) occurred during the study period. According to the systems of Wolfson, Beberashvili, and the ISRNM, 54, 32, and 20 % of patients, respectively, had malnutrition. Both univariate and multivariate analyses showed that the ISRNM system was the only one that predicted poorer survival (fourfold higher death risk) in malnourished patients. Conclusions: The scoring system proposed by the ISRNM most accurately identifies patients at higher risk of death. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Charcot foot: Skin temperature as a good clinical parameter for predicting disease outcome

Twenty-eight diabetics presenting with acute Charcot foot were immobilized and the temperature difference between limbs measured at each month. All patients had monthly follow-up visits for a year and the relapse rate was zero. We found that skin temperature is a good parameter to ensure safe immobilization withdrawal. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The swelling behaviour of polyelectrolyte networks

Being basic ingredients of numerous daily-life products with significant industrial importance as well as basic building blocks for biomaterials, charged hydrogels continue to pose a series of unanswered challenges for scientists even after decades of practical applications and intensive research efforts. Despite a rather simple internal structure it is mainly the unique combination of short- and long-range forces which render scientific investigations of their characteristic properties to be quite difficult. Hence early on computer simulations were used to link analytical theory and empirical experiments, bridging the gap between the simplifying assumptions of the models and the complexity of real world measurements. Due to the immense numerical effort, even for high performance supercomputers, system sizes and time scales were rather restricted until recently, whereas it only now has become possible to also simulate a network of charged macromolecules. This is the topic of the presented thesis which investigates one of the fundamental and at the same time highly fascinating phenomenon of polymer research: The swelling behaviour of polyelectrolyte networks. For this an extensible simulation package for the research on soft matter systems, ESPResSo for short, was created which puts a particular emphasis on mesoscopic bead-spring-models of complex systems. Highly efficient algorithms and a consistent parallelization reduced the necessary computation time for solving equations of motion even in case of long-ranged electrostatics and large number of particles, allowing to tackle even expensive calculations and applications. Nevertheless, the program has a modular and simple structure, enabling a continuous process of adding new potentials, interactions, degrees of freedom, ensembles, and integrators, while staying easily accessible for newcomers due to a Tcl-script steering level controlling the C-implemented simulation core. Numerous analysis routines provide means to investigate system properties and observables on-the-fly. Even though analytical theories agreed on the modeling of networks in the past years, our numerical MD-simulations show that even in case of simple model systems fundamental theoretical assumptions no longer apply except for a small parameter regime, prohibiting correct predictions of observables. Applying a "microscopic" analysis of the isolated contributions of individual system components, one of the particular strengths of computer simulations, it was then possible to describe the behaviour of charged polymer networks at swelling equilibrium in good solvent and close to the Theta-point by introducing appropriate model modifications. This became possible by enhancing known simple scaling arguments with components deemed crucial in our detailed study, through which a generalized model could be constructed. Herewith an agreement of the final system volume of swollen polyelectrolyte gels with results of computer simulations could be shown successfully over the entire investigated range of parameters, for different network sizes, charge fractions, and interaction strengths. In addition, the "cell under tension" was presented as a self-regulating approach for predicting the amount of swelling based on the used system parameters only. Without the need for measured observables as input, minimizing the free energy alone already allows to determine the the equilibrium behaviour. In poor solvent the shape of the network chains changes considerably, as now their hydrophobicity counteracts the repulsion of like-wise charged monomers and pursues collapsing the polyelectrolytes. Depending on the chosen parameters a fragile balance emerges, giving rise to fascinating geometrical structures such as the so-called pear-necklaces. This behaviour, known from single chain polyelectrolytes under similar environmental conditions and also theoretically predicted, could be detected for the first time for networks as well. An analysis of the total structure factors confirmed first evidences for the existence of such structures found in experimental results.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

Predicting the population impact of chlamydia screening programmes: comparative mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: Published individual-based, dynamic sexual network modelling studies reach different conclusions about the population impact of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis. The objective of this study was to conduct a direct comparison of the effect of organised chlamydia screening in different models. METHODS: Three models simulating population-level sexual behaviour, chlamydia transmission, screening and partner notification were used. Parameters describing a hypothetical annual opportunistic screening program in 16-24 year olds were standardised, whereas other parameters from the three original studies were retained. Model predictions of the change in chlamydia prevalence were compared under a range of scenarios. RESULTS: Initial overall chlamydia prevalence rates were similar in women but not men and there were age and sex-specific differences between models. The number of screening tests carried out was comparable in all models but there were large differences in the predicted impact of screening. After 10 years of screening, the predicted reduction in chlamydia prevalence in women aged 16-44 years ranged from 4% to 85%. Screening men and women had a greater impact than screening women alone in all models. There were marked differences between models in assumptions about treatment seeking and sexual behaviour before the start of the screening intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Future models of chlamydia transmission should be fitted to both incidence and prevalence data. This meta-modelling study provides essential information for explaining differences between published studies and increasing the utility of individual-based chlamydia transmission models for policy making.

Predicting 3-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: updated logistic clinical SYNTAX score based on patient-level data from 7 contemporary stent trials

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to update the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score to predict 3-year survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and compare the performance with the SYNTAX score alone. BACKGROUND The SYNTAX score is a well-established angiographic tool to predict long-term outcomes after PCI. The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, developed by combining clinical variables with the anatomic SYNTAX score, has been shown to perform better than the SYNTAX score alone in predicting 1-year outcomes after PCI. However, the ability of this score to predict long-term survival is unknown. METHODS Patient-level data (N = 6,304, 399 deaths within 3 years) from 7 contemporary PCI trials were analyzed. We revised the overall risk and the predictor effects in the core model (SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction) using Cox regression analysis to predict mortality at 3 years. We also updated the extended model by combining the core model with additional independent predictors of 3-year mortality (i.e., diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, and body mass index). RESULTS The revised Logistic Clinical SYNTAX models showed better discriminative ability than the anatomic SYNTAX score for the prediction of 3-year mortality after PCI (c-index: SYNTAX score, 0.61; core model, 0.71; and extended model, 0.73 in a cross-validation procedure). The extended model in particular performed better in differentiating low- and intermediate-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS Risk scores combining clinical characteristics with the anatomic SYNTAX score substantially better predict 3-year mortality than the SYNTAX score alone and should be used for long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing PCI.

Predicting Physical Activity in Adolescents: The Role of Compensatory Health Beliefs within the Health Action Process Approach

Objective: Compensatory health beliefs (CHBs), defined as beliefs that healthy behaviours can compensate for unhealthy behaviours, may be one possible factor hindering people in adopting a healthier lifestyle. This study examined the contribution of CHBs to the prediction of adolescents’ physical activity within the theoretical framework of the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA). Design: The study followed a prospective survey design with assessments at baseline (T1) and two weeks later (T2). Method: Questionnaire data on physical activity, HAPA variables and CHBs were obtained twice from 430 adolescents of four different Swiss schools. Multilevel modelling was applied. Results: CHBs added significantly to the prediction of intentions and change in intentions, in that higher CHBs were associated with lower intentions to be physically active at T2 and a reduction in intentions from T1 to T2. No effect of CHBs emerged for the prediction of self-reported levels of physical activity at T2 and change in physical activity from T1 to T2. Conclusion: Findings emphasise the relevance of examining CHBs in the context of an established health behaviour change model and suggest that CHBs are of particular importance in the process of intention formation.

First-Trimester Placental Growth Factor in Screening for Gestational Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was first to assess whether first-trimester serum concentrations of placental growth factor (PlGF) differ between patients with and without gestational diabetes (GDM) and second to test whether there is a correlation between glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), a factor recently shown to be useful in predicting GDM, and PlGF. METHODS PlGF was measured at 8-14 weeks with the Kryptor Immunoassay Analyzer (Brahms, Berlin, Germany). Absolute values were converted to multiples of the median using the software provided by the Fetal Medicine Foundation London. GDM was diagnosed using internationally accepted criteria. HbA1c levels were quantified using the TOSOH G7 automated hemoglobin analyzer. RESULTS From January to December 2014, 328 women were included in the study, 51 (15.5%) of whom developed GDM. First-trimester PlGF quantification does not discriminate between women at risk to develop GDM and controls, while HbA1c is able to do so. No correlation was found between PlGF and HbA1c. CONCLUSION Our findings do not lend support to the hypothesis that early PlGF values are different in women who later develop GDM.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Extracción de conocimientos de la diabetes tipo 1 utilizando la metodología de "Data Mining"

La diabetes mellitus es un trastorno en la metabolización de los carbohidratos, caracterizado por la nula o insuficiente segregación de insulina (hormona producida por el páncreas), como resultado del mal funcionamiento de la parte endocrina del páncreas, o de una creciente resistencia del organismo a esta hormona. Esto implica, que tras el proceso digestivo, los alimentos que ingerimos se transforman en otros compuestos químicos más pequeños mediante los tejidos exocrinos. La ausencia o poca efectividad de esta hormona polipéptida, no permite metabolizar los carbohidratos ingeridos provocando dos consecuencias: Aumento de la concentración de glucosa en sangre, ya que las células no pueden metabolizarla; consumo de ácidos grasos mediante el hígado, liberando cuerpos cetónicos para aportar la energía a las células. Esta situación expone al enfermo crónico, a una concentración de glucosa en sangre muy elevada, denominado hiperglucemia, la cual puede producir a medio o largo múltiples problemas médicos: oftalmológicos, renales, cardiovasculares, cerebrovasculares, neurológicos… La diabetes representa un gran problema de salud pública y es la enfermedad más común en los países desarrollados por varios factores como la obesidad, la vida sedentaria, que facilitan la aparición de esta enfermedad. Mediante el presente proyecto trabajaremos con los datos de experimentación clínica de pacientes con diabetes de tipo 1, enfermedad autoinmune en la que son destruidas las células beta del páncreas (productoras de insulina) resultando necesaria la administración de insulina exógena. Dicho esto, el paciente con diabetes tipo 1 deberá seguir un tratamiento con insulina administrada por la vía subcutánea, adaptado a sus necesidades metabólicas y a sus hábitos de vida. Para abordar esta situación de regulación del control metabólico del enfermo, mediante una terapia de insulina, no serviremos del proyecto “Páncreas Endocrino Artificial” (PEA), el cual consta de una bomba de infusión de insulina, un sensor continuo de glucosa, y un algoritmo de control en lazo cerrado. El objetivo principal del PEA es aportar al paciente precisión, eficacia y seguridad en cuanto a la normalización del control glucémico y reducción del riesgo de hipoglucemias. El PEA se instala mediante vía subcutánea, por lo que, el retardo introducido por la acción de la insulina, el retardo de la medida de glucosa, así como los errores introducidos por los sensores continuos de glucosa cuando, se descalibran dificultando el empleo de un algoritmo de control. Llegados a este punto debemos modelar la glucosa del paciente mediante sistemas predictivos. Un modelo, es todo aquel elemento que nos permita predecir el comportamiento de un sistema mediante la introducción de variables de entrada. De este modo lo que conseguimos, es una predicción de los estados futuros en los que se puede encontrar la glucosa del paciente, sirviéndonos de variables de entrada de insulina, ingesta y glucosa ya conocidas, por ser las sucedidas con anterioridad en el tiempo. Cuando empleamos el predictor de glucosa, utilizando parámetros obtenidos en tiempo real, el controlador es capaz de indicar el nivel futuro de la glucosa para la toma de decisones del controlador CL. Los predictores que se están empleando actualmente en el PEA no están funcionando correctamente por la cantidad de información y variables que debe de manejar. Data Mining, también referenciado como Descubrimiento del Conocimiento en Bases de Datos (Knowledge Discovery in Databases o KDD), ha sido definida como el proceso de extracción no trivial de información implícita, previamente desconocida y potencialmente útil. Todo ello, sirviéndonos las siguientes fases del proceso de extracción del conocimiento: selección de datos, pre-procesado, transformación, minería de datos, interpretación de los resultados, evaluación y obtención del conocimiento. Con todo este proceso buscamos generar un único modelo insulina glucosa que se ajuste de forma individual a cada paciente y sea capaz, al mismo tiempo, de predecir los estados futuros glucosa con cálculos en tiempo real, a través de unos parámetros introducidos. Este trabajo busca extraer la información contenida en una base de datos de pacientes diabéticos tipo 1 obtenidos a partir de la experimentación clínica. Para ello emplearemos técnicas de Data Mining. Para la consecución del objetivo implícito a este proyecto hemos procedido a implementar una interfaz gráfica que nos guía a través del proceso del KDD (con información gráfica y estadística) de cada punto del proceso. En lo que respecta a la parte de la minería de datos, nos hemos servido de la denominada herramienta de WEKA, en la que a través de Java controlamos todas sus funciones, para implementarlas por medio del programa creado. Otorgando finalmente, una mayor potencialidad al proyecto con la posibilidad de implementar el servicio de los dispositivos Android por la potencial capacidad de portar el código. Mediante estos dispositivos y lo expuesto en el proyecto se podrían implementar o incluso crear nuevas aplicaciones novedosas y muy útiles para este campo. Como conclusión del proyecto, y tras un exhaustivo análisis de los resultados obtenidos, podemos apreciar como logramos obtener el modelo insulina-glucosa de cada paciente. ABSTRACT. The diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder, characterized by the low or none insulin production (a hormone produced by the pancreas), as a result of the malfunctioning of the endocrine pancreas part or by an increasing resistance of the organism to this hormone. This implies that, after the digestive process, the food we consume is transformed into smaller chemical compounds, through the exocrine tissues. The absence or limited effectiveness of this polypeptide hormone, does not allow to metabolize the ingested carbohydrates provoking two consequences: Increase of the glucose concentration in blood, as the cells are unable to metabolize it; fatty acid intake through the liver, releasing ketone bodies to provide energy to the cells. This situation exposes the chronic patient to high blood glucose levels, named hyperglycemia, which may cause in the medium or long term multiple medical problems: ophthalmological, renal, cardiovascular, cerebrum-vascular, neurological … The diabetes represents a great public health problem and is the most common disease in the developed countries, by several factors such as the obesity or sedentary life, which facilitate the appearance of this disease. Through this project we will work with clinical experimentation data of patients with diabetes of type 1, autoimmune disease in which beta cells of the pancreas (producers of insulin) are destroyed resulting necessary the exogenous insulin administration. That said, the patient with diabetes type 1 will have to follow a treatment with insulin, administered by the subcutaneous route, adapted to his metabolic needs and to his life habits. To deal with this situation of metabolic control regulation of the patient, through an insulin therapy, we shall be using the “Endocrine Artificial Pancreas " (PEA), which consists of a bomb of insulin infusion, a constant glucose sensor, and a control algorithm in closed bow. The principal aim of the PEA is providing the patient precision, efficiency and safety regarding the normalization of the glycemic control and hypoglycemia risk reduction". The PEA establishes through subcutaneous route, consequently, the delay introduced by the insulin action, the delay of the glucose measure, as well as the mistakes introduced by the constant glucose sensors when, decalibrate, impede the employment of an algorithm of control. At this stage we must shape the patient glucose levels through predictive systems. A model is all that element or set of elements which will allow us to predict the behavior of a system by introducing input variables. Thus what we obtain, is a prediction of the future stages in which it is possible to find the patient glucose level, being served of input insulin, ingestion and glucose variables already known, for being the ones happened previously in the time. When we use the glucose predictor, using obtained real time parameters, the controller is capable of indicating the future level of the glucose for the decision capture CL controller. The predictors that are being used nowadays in the PEA are not working correctly for the amount of information and variables that it need to handle. Data Mining, also indexed as Knowledge Discovery in Databases or KDD, has been defined as the not trivial extraction process of implicit information, previously unknown and potentially useful. All this, using the following phases of the knowledge extraction process: selection of information, pre- processing, transformation, data mining, results interpretation, evaluation and knowledge acquisition. With all this process we seek to generate the unique insulin glucose model that adjusts individually and in a personalized way for each patient form and being capable, at the same time, of predicting the future conditions with real time calculations, across few input parameters. This project of end of grade seeks to extract the information contained in a database of type 1 diabetics patients, obtained from clinical experimentation. For it, we will use technologies of Data Mining. For the attainment of the aim implicit to this project we have proceeded to implement a graphical interface that will guide us across the process of the KDD (with graphical and statistical information) of every point of the process. Regarding the data mining part, we have been served by a tool called WEKA's tool called, in which across Java, we control all of its functions to implement them by means of the created program. Finally granting a higher potential to the project with the possibility of implementing the service for Android devices, porting the code. Through these devices and what has been exposed in the project they might help or even create new and very useful applications for this field. As a conclusion of the project, and after an exhaustive analysis of the obtained results, we can show how we achieve to obtain the insulin–glucose model for each patient.

Health beliefs and folk models of diabetes in British Bangladeshis: a qualitative study

Objective: To explore the experience of diabetes in British Bangladeshis, since successful management of diabetes requires attention not just to observable behaviour but to the underlying attitudes and belief systems which drive that behaviour.

An approach for characterising the weathering behaviour of Flysch slopes applied to the carbonatic Flysch of Alicante (Spain)

Various studies indicate that most of the slope instabilities affecting Flysch heterogeneous rock masses are related to differential weathering of the lithologies that make up the slope. Therefore, the weathering characteristics of the intact rock are of great importance for the study of these types of slopes and their associated instability processes. The main aim of this study is to characterise the weathering properties of the different lithologies outcropping in the carbonatic Flysch of Alicante (Spain), in order to understand the effects of environmental weathering on them, following slope excavation. To this end, 151 strata samples obtained from 11 different slopes, 5–40 years old, were studied. The lithologies were identified and their mechanical characteristics obtained using field and laboratory tests. Additionally, the slaking properties of intact rocks were determined, and a classification system proposed based on the first and fifth slake cycles (Id1 and Id5 respectively) and an Index of Weathering (IW5), defined in the study. Information obtained from the laboratory and the field was used to characterise the weathering behaviour of the rocks. Furthermore, the slaking properties determined from laboratory tests were related to the in-situ weathering properties of rocks (i.e., the weathering profile, patterns and length, and weathering rate). The proposed relationship between laboratory test results, field data, and in-situ observations provides a useful tool for predicting the response of slopes to weathering after excavation during the preliminary stages of design.

Identifying and predicting adolescent smokers' developmental trajectories

Very few studies have defined trajectories of smoking. In the present study, we modeled growth in adolescent smoking and empirically identified prototypical trajectories. We conceptualized escalation of smoking as a growth process and modeled rates of change and heterogeneity of these patterns using latent growth mixture modeling. The analysis identified six trajectories with low ambiguity about group membership (early rapid escalators, late rapid escalators, late moderate escalators, late slow escalators-smokers, stable puffers, and late slow escalators-puffers). A trajectory of quitters was not identified. We also examined predictors of the smoking trajectories. The predictors were assessed across the adolescent years and included variables related to smoking and other substance use, as well as a range of variables related to sociodemographic factors and mental health. Observed change in the pattern of predictors across age has implications for the mechanism of effect of these variables in relation to smoking trajectories, including predictors that differentiated among daily smokers, variables that may determine the trajectory (e.g., friends smoking), and variables that may result from the trajectory (e.g., marijuana use, less attachment to friends).