Making conservation decisions under uncertainty for the persistence of multiple species

Population models for multiple species provide one of the few means of assessing the impact of alternative management options on the persistence of biodiversity, but
they are inevitably uncertain. Is it possible to use population models in multiple-speciesconservation planning given the associated uncertainties? We use information-gap decision theory to explore the impact of parameter uncertainty on the conservation decision when planning for the persistence of multiple species. An information-gap approach seeks robust outcomes that are most immune from error. We assess the impact of uncertainty in key model parameters for three species, whose extinction risks under four alternative management scenarios are estimated using a metapopulation model. Three methods are described for making conservation decisions across the species, taking into account uncertainty. We find that decisions based on single species are relatively robust to uncertainty in parameters, although the estimates of extinction risk increase rapidly with uncertainty. When identifying the best conservation decision for the persistence of all species, the methods that rely on the rankings of the management options by each species result in decisions that are similarly robust to uncertainty. Methods that depend on absolute values of extinction risk are sensitive to uncertainty, as small changes in extinction risk can alter the ranking of the alternative scenarios. We discover that it is possible to make robust conservation decisions even when the uncertainties of the multiple-species problem appear overwhelming. However, the decision most robust to uncertainty is likely to differ from the best decision when uncertainty is ignored, illustrating the importance of incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process.

The trajectory of dispersal research in conservation biology. Systematic review

Dispersal knowledge is essential for conservation management, and demand is growing. But are we accumulating dispersal knowledge at a pace that can meet the demand? To answer this question we tested for changes in dispersal data collection and use over time. Our systematic review of 655 conservation-related publications compared five topics: climate change, habitat restoration, population viability analysis, land planning (systematic conservation planning) and invasive species. We analysed temporal changes in the: (i) questions asked by dispersal-related research; (ii) methods used to study dispersal; (iii) the quality of dispersal data; (iv) extent that dispersal knowledge is lacking, and; (v) likely consequences of limited dispersal knowledge. Research questions have changed little over time; the same problems examined in the 1990s are still being addressed. The most common methods used to study dispersal were occupancy data, expert opinion and modelling, which often provided indirect, low quality information about dispersal. Although use of genetics for estimating dispersal has increased, new ecological and genetic methods for measuring dispersal are not yet widely adopted. Almost half of the papers identified knowledge gaps related to dispersal. Limited dispersal knowledge often made it impossible to discover ecological processes or compromised conservation outcomes. The quality of dispersal data used in climate change research has increased since the 1990s. In comparison, restoration ecology inadequately addresses large-scale process, whilst the gap between knowledge accumulation and growth in applications may be increasing in land planning. To overcome apparent stagnation in collection and use of dispersal knowledge, researchers need to: (i) improve the quality of available data using new approaches; (ii) understand the complementarities of different methods and; (iii) define the value of different kinds of dispersal information for supporting management decisions. Ambitious, multi-disciplinary research programs studying many species are critical for advancing dispersal research.

Overlap between flesh-footed shearwater Puffinus carneipes foraging areas and commercial fisheries in New Zealand waters

Although the flesh-footed shearwater Puffinus carneipes is a species with large population sizes (tens of thousands of breeding pairs) and widespread sub-tropical distribution across Australasian water masses, it is among the species most threatened by longline fisheries mortality in this region. While bycatch mitigation measures have been very successful in reducing mortality in some species, bycatch of flesh-footed shearwaters is still high, with captures estimated to exceed the sustainable take of 514 birds yr-1 by nearly 200 birds for New Zealand fisheries alone. Management agencies aiming to reduce the impact of fisheries mortality on the populations need to understand which marine areas are being used by flesh-footed shearwaters to better target fishery monitoring and mitigation efforts. Foraging studies of seabirds tell us about their use of resources, i.e. the way species segregate the available habitat and help to identify threats that may affect population viability. Breeding shearwaters were tracked from 2 New Zealand colonies using GPS loggers. Individuals foraged over shelf and deep oceanic waters up to 1200 km from their nesting sites during incubation but were mainly within 370 km during early chick rearing. The intensity of potential interactions increased for trawl and surface longline fishing between the January and February study periods but remained at a similar level for bottom longline fishing. Following the field data collection, changes to fishery monitoring were implemented in the areas where shearwaters foraged.

Recruitment of a keystone tree species must concurrently manage flooding and browsing

Multiple pressures (land-use change, water extraction and climate change) interact to influence biodiversity and ecosystem processes, but direct evidence for interactions among multiple pressures is limited. Floodplain forests are an acute example of how interacting pressures (river regulation, water extraction, decreasing rainfall and mammal browsing) interact to degrade native ecosystems. We conducted a 2-year field experiment to determine how flooding, browsing and sediment salinity interacted to determine in situ seedling survival and growth of the keystone floodplain tree species (Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh.). On semi-arid floodplains of southern Australia, 1-year-old seedlings were planted on the banks of six ephemeral creeks, three of which were flooded with management flows before planting while the others remained dry. Four plots were established at each creek, two open to browsing and two fenced to exclude mammal herbivores. Flooding had a strong positive effect on seedling survival and height, but browsing had strong negative effects. Sediment salinity (a covariate rather than a designed effect) had a weak negative effect on seedling survival and height. The positive effects of flooding were largely offset by the negative interaction with browsing and, to a lesser extent, sediment salinity. Although flooding has been restored to some degraded floodplain forests subjected to river regulation and a drying climate, the long-term success of such actions is likely to be undermined by persistent browsing. Synthesis and applications. Management actions that focus on single pressures (e.g. infrequent flooding) and processes (e.g. mature tree survival) while ignoring other pressures are unlikely to sustain populations of keystone species, suggesting that complementary strategies (managed flooding with herbivore control) are necessary to sustain recruitment and, therefore, ensure the future health of these essential ecosystems.

Species- and sex-specific connectivity effects of habitat fragmentation in a suite of woodland birds

Loss of functional connectivity following habitat loss and fragmentation could drive species declines. A comprehensive understanding of fragmentation effects on functional connectivity of an ecological assemblage requires investigation of multiple species with different mobilities, at different spatial scales, for each sex, and in different landscapes. Based on published data on mobility and ecological responses to fragmentation of 10 woodland-dependent birds, and using simulation studies, we predicted that (1) fragmentation would impede dispersal and gene flow of eight "decliners" (species that disappear from suitable patches when landscape-level tree cover falls below species-specific thresholds), but not of two "tolerant" species (whose occurrence in suitable habitat patches is independent of landscape tree cover); and that fragmentation effects would be stronger (2) in the least mobile species, (3) in the more philopatric sex, and (4) in the more fragmented region. We tested these predictions by evaluating spatially explicit isolation-by-landscape-resistance models of gene flow in fragmented landscapes across a 50 x 170 km study area in central Victoria, Australia, using individual and population genetic distances. To account for sex-biased dispersal and potential scale- and configuration-specific effects, we fitted models specific to sex and geographic zones. As predicted, four of the least mobile decliners showed evidence of reduced genetic connectivity. The responses were strongly sex specific, but in opposite directions in the two most sedentary species. Both tolerant species and (unexpectedly) four of the more mobile decliners showed no reduction in gene flow. This is unlikely to be due to time lags because more mobile species develop genetic signatures of fragmentation faster than do less mobile ones. Weaker genetic effects were observed in the geographic zone with more aggregated vegetation, consistent with gene flow being unimpeded by landscape structure. Our results indicate that for all but the most sedentary species in our system, the movement of the more dispersive sex (females in most cases) maintains overall genetic connectivity across fragmented landscapes in the study area, despite some small-scale effects on the more philopatric sex for some species. Nevertheless, to improve population viability for the less mobile bird species, structural landscape connectivity must be increased.

The effects of habitat fragmentation on the demography and population genetic structure of Uromys Caudimaculatus

Habitat fragmentation can have an impact on a wide variety of biological processes including abundance, life history strategies, mating system, inbreeding and genetic diversity levels of individual species. Although fragmented populations have received much attention, ecological and genetic responses of species to fragmentation have still not been fully resolved. The current study investigated the ecological factors that may influence the demographic and genetic structure of the giant white-tailed rat (Uromys caudimaculatus) within fragmented tropical rainforests. It is the first study to examine relationships between food resources, vegetation attributes and Uromys demography in a quantitative manner. Giant white-tailed rat densities were strongly correlated with specific suites of food resources rather than forest structure or other factors linked to fragmentation (i.e. fragment size). Several demographic parameters including the density of resident adults and juvenile recruitment showed similar patterns. Although data were limited, high quality food resources appear to initiate breeding in female Uromys. Where data were sufficient, influx of juveniles was significantly related to the density of high quality food resources that had fallen in the previous three months. Thus, availability of high quality food resources appear to be more important than either vegetation structure or fragment size in influencing giant white-tailed rat demography. These results support the suggestion that a species’ response to fragmentation can be related to their specific habitat requirements and can vary in response to local ecological conditions. In contrast to demographic data, genetic data revealed a significant negative effect of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity and effective population size in U. caudimaculatus. All three fragments showed lower levels of allelic richness, number of private alleles and expected heterozygosity compared with the unfragmented continuous rainforest site. Populations at all sites were significantly differentiated, suggesting restricted among population gene flow. The combined effects of reduced genetic diversity, lower effective population size and restricted gene flow suggest that long-term viability of small fragmented populations may be at risk, unless effective management is employed in the future. A diverse range of genetic reproductive behaviours and sex-biased dispersal patterns were evident within U. caudimaculatus populations. Genetic paternity analyses revealed that the major mating system in U. caudimaculatus appeared to be polygyny at sites P1, P3 and C1. Evidence of genetic monogamy, however, was also found in the three fragmented sites, and was the dominant mating system in the remaining low density, small fragment (P2). High variability in reproductive skew and reproductive success was also found but was less pronounced when only resident Uromys were considered. Male body condition predicted which males sired offspring, however, neither body condition nor heterozygosity levels were accurate predictors of the number of offspring assigned to individual males or females. Genetic spatial autocorrelation analyses provided evidence for increased philopatry among females at site P1, but increased philopatry among males at site P3. This suggests that male-biased dispersal occurs at site P1 and female-biased dispersal at site P3, implying that in addition to mating systems, Uromys may also be able to adjust their dispersal behaviour to suit local ecological conditions. This study highlights the importance of examining the mechanisms that underlie population-level responses to habitat fragmentation using a combined ecological and genetic approach. The ecological data suggested that habitat quality (i.e. high quality food resources) rather than habitat quantity (i.e. fragment size) was relatively more important in influencing giant white-tailed rat demographics, at least for the populations studied here . Conversely, genetic data showed strong evidence that Uromys populations were affected adversely by habitat fragmentation and that management of isolated populations may be required for long-term viability of populations within isolated rainforest fragments.

Residential property investment : assessing home ownership long term viability

Home purchase and ownership is seen by the majority of Australians as the basis for a sound investment strategy and to seciure their long term retirement goals. Although home ownership rates in Australia are in excess of 65% of the population, there have been doubts raised as to the effectiveness of purchasing a house as the main source of retirement income. The main issue with this approach is that the house has to be sold to gain access to these funds or the owners have to take out a reverse mortgage to access the capital tied up in their home, which can be more expensive than selling. This paper will carryout a detailed analysis of a number of investment options to determine the effectiveness of home purchase as a long term investment vehicle. This study has found that the long term investment in equities or managed superannuation funds can provide a greater retirement income than the purchase of a residential property for owner occupation

The genetic effective and adult census size of an Australian population of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus)

This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

The Asian elephants Elephas maximus of Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam: status and conservation of a vanishing population

This study updates the status and conservation of the Endangered Asian elephant Elephas maximus in Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam. Line transect indirect surveys, block surveys for elephant signs, village surveys of elephant-human conflict incidents, guard-post surveys for records of sightings, and surveys of elephant food plants were undertaken during the dry and wet seasons of 2001. A minimum of 11 elephants and a maximum of 15-17 elephants was estimated for c. 500 km2 of the Park and its vicinity. The elephants are largely confined to the southern boundary of the Park and make extensive use of the adjoining La Nga State Forest Enterprises. During the dry season the elephants depend on at least 26 species of wild and cultivated plants, chiefly the fruits of cashew. Most of the villages surveyed reported some elephant-human conflict. Two adult male elephants seem to cover a large area to raid crops, whereas the family groups restrict themselves to a few villages; overall, the conflict is not serious. Since 2001 there have been no reports of any deaths or births of elephants in the Park. We make recommendations for habitat protection and management, increasing the viability of the small population, reducing elephant-human conflicts, and improving the chances of survival of the declining elephants of this Park. The Government has now approved an Action Plan for Urgent Conservation Areas in Vietnam that calls for the establishment of three elephant conservation areas in the country, including Cat Tien National Park.

Automated cell viability assessment using a microfluidics based portable imaging flow analyzer

In this work, we report a system-level integration of portable microscopy and microfluidics for the realization of optofluidic imaging flow analyzer with a throughput of 450 cells/s. With the use of a cellphone augmented with off-the-shelf optical components and custom designed microfluidics, we demonstrate a portable optofluidic imaging flow analyzer. A multiple microfluidic channel geometry was employed to demonstrate the enhancement of throughput in the context of low frame-rate imaging systems. Using the cell-phone based digital imaging flow analyzer, we have imaged yeast cells present in a suspension. By digitally processing the recorded videos of the flow stream on the cellphone, we demonstrated an automated cell viability assessment of the yeast cell population. In addition, we also demonstrate the suitability of the system for blood cell counting. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

Translocation as a strategy to rehabilitate the queen conch (Strombus gigas) population in the Florida Keys

Queen conch (Strombus gigas) stocks in the Florida Keys once supported commercial and recreational fisheries, but overharvesting has decimated this once abundant snail. Despite a ban on harvesting this species since 1985, the local conch population has not recovered. In addition, previous work has reported that conch located in nearshore Keys waters are incapable of spawning because of poor gonadal condition, although reproduction does occur offshore. Queen conch in other areas undergo ontogenetic migrations from shallow, nearshore sites to offshore habitats, but conch in the Florida Keys are prevented from doing so by Hawk Channel. The present study was initiated to determine the potential of translocating nonspawning nearshore conch to offshore sites in order to augment the spawning stock. We translocated adult conch from two nearshore sites to two offshore sites. Histological examinations at the initiation of this study confirmed that nearshore conch were incapable of reproduction, whereas offshore conch had normal gonads and thus were able to reproduce. The gonads of nearshore females were in worse condition than those of nearshore males. However, the gonadal condition of the translocated nearshore conch improved, and these animals began spawning after three months offshore. This finding suggests that some component of the nearshore environment (e.g., pollutants, temperature extremes, poor food or habitat quality) disrupts reproduction in conch, but that removal of nearshore animals to suitable offshore habitat can restore reproductive viability. These results indicate that translocations are preferable to releasing hatchery-reared juveniles because they are more cost-effective, result in a more rapid increase in reproductive output, and maintain the genetic integrity of the wild stock. Therefore, translocating nearshore conch to offshore spawning aggregations may be the key to expediting the recovery of queen conch stocks in the Florida Keys.

Comparative growth and viability of hybrids between two populations of Chinese shrimp (Fennropenaeus chinensis)

Fenneropenaeus chinensis is confined to the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in China and the West Coast of the Korean Peninsula. Intra- and intercross populations were produced between Rushany (YP) and Korean (KN) populations. Seven traits were recorded. The heterosis of hybrids was computed and comparison between treatments was performed by ANOVA. At the fourth month after post-larvae, six indexes of growth trait and viability showed a range of heterosis, ranging from 0.514% to 14.950%. At the fifth month after post-larvae, six indexes of growth trait and viability ranged from -9.000% to 19.090%. The negative heterosis was observed in CL, HST and viability. The heterosis of KN female xYP male tended generally to increase as the age of the Chinese shrimp increased while the heterosis of YP female xKN male tended to decrease. The results indicated that the viability of reciprocal hybrids were not significantly different (P > 0.05) from their parents during the experiment. The result of ANOVA indicated that the F1 hybrids were significantly different (P < 0.05) in WST and TW at the fourth month. The multiple comparisons of LSD test indicated that the hybrids of YP female xKN male were significantly different (P < 0.05) from their parents in TW. The hybrids of YP female xKN male were significantly different (P < 0.05) from the other three combinations in WST. At the fifth months, the F1 hybrids had significant difference (P < 0.05) in body weight while other traits showed no significant differences (P > 0.05) from their parents. The multiple comparisons of LSD test indicated that the hybrids of KN female xYP male were significantly different (P < 0.05) from the KN parents in TW. The results indicate that in experimental conditions, the F-1 hybrids created from two populations of Chinese shrimp showed a certain level of heterosis for growth performance and viability. The crossing scheme may improve growth performance and viability in Chinese shrimp, but the improvement may be limited because effective crossbreeding requires the maintenance of pure, preferably inbred, lines and possibly involves specialized sire and dam lines. Therefore, the exploitation of heterosis through single crossbreeding in Chinese shrimp is of limited utility in practical commercial shrimp aquaculture in spite of the potential of significant heterosis. The crossbreeding of different populations can be applied in the establishment of base populations.

Genetic improvement on Chinese shrimp (Fenneropenaeus chinensis): growth and viability performance in F1 hybrids of different populations

Fenneropenaeus chinensis distributed in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China and the west coast of the Korean Peninsula. Different geographical populations represent potentially different genetic resources. To learn further the characteristics of different geographical population, crosses among two wild and three farmed populations were produced. The two wild populations were from the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea (WYP), and the west coast of the Korean Peninsula and coast (WKN). The three farmed populations included the offspring of first generation of wild shrimp from coast in Korea (FKN), the Huang Hai (the Yellow Sea in Chinese) No.1 (HH1), and JK98. The phenotypes growth and survival rates of these populations were compared to confirm the feasibility for crossbreeding. The body length (BL), carapace length (CL), carapace width (CW), height of the second and third abdominal segment (HST), width of the second and third abdominal segment (WST), length of the first abdominal segment (LF), length of the last abdominal segment (LL), live body weight (BW), and survival rate were measured. Different combinations were statistically performed with ANOVA and Duncan's Multiple Range Test. The results show that the survival rate of JK98(a (TM) Euro)xWKN(a (TM),) was the highest, followed by WYP(a (TM) Euro)xWKN(a (TM),), FKN(a (TM) Euro)xWYP(a (TM),), FKN(a (TM) Euro)xHH1(a (TM),) and WYP(a (TM) Euro)xFKN(a (TM),); the body weight of FKN(a (TM) Euro)sxHH1(a (TM),) was the highest, followed by FKN(a (TM) Euro)xWYP(a (TM),), WYP(a (TM) Euro)xWKN(a (TM),), WYP(a (TM) Euro)xFKN(a (TM),) and JK98(a (TM) Euro)xWKN(a (TM),); the total length had the same ranking as the body weight. All growth traits in hybrids JK98(a (TM) Euro)xWKN(a (TM),) were the lowest among all combinations. F1 hybrids had significant difference (P < 0.05) in BL, CL, HST, LL, and BW; and insignificant difference (P > 0.05) in other growth traits and survival rate. The results of Duncan's Multiple Range Test are that BL and CL of JK98(a (TM) Euro)xWKN(a (TM),) were significantly different from the other combinations; HST different from the combination of FKN(a (TM) Euro)xWYP(a (TM),), FKN(a (TM) Euro)xHH1(a (TM),) and WYP(a (TM) Euro)xWKN(a (TM),); and BW different from FKN(a (TM) Euro)xWYP(a (TM),) and FKN(a (TM) Euro)xHH1(a (TM),). As a whole, the results indicate that the FKN(a (TM) Euro)xHH1(a (TM),) was the best combination in all growth traits. Therefore, hybridization can introduce the variation to base populations. The systematic selection program based on additive genetic performance may be more effective than crossbreeding.

Sphingosine Kinase 1 Promotes Malignant Progression in Colon Cancer and Independently Predicts Survival of Patients With Colon Cancer by Competing Risk Approach in South Asian Population

OBJECTIVES: Sphingosine kinase 1 (SphK1) phosphorylates the membrane sphingolipid, sphingosine, to sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P), an oncogenic mediator, which drives tumor cell growth and survival. Although SphK1 has gained increasing prominence as an oncogenic determinant in several cancers, its potential as a therapeutic target in colon cancer remains uncertain. We investigated the clinical relevance of SphK1 expression in colon cancer as well as its inhibitory effects in vitro.

METHODS: SphK1 expression in human colon tumor tissues was determined by immunohistochemistry and its clinicopathological significance was ascertained in 303 colon cancer cases. The effects of SphK1 inhibition on colon cancer cell viability and the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt cell survival pathway were investigated using a SphK1-selective inhibitor-compound 5c (5c). The cytotoxicity of a novel combination using SphK1 inhibition with the chemotherapeutic drug, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), was also determined.

RESULTS: High SphK1 expression correlated with advanced tumor stages (AJCC classification). Using a competing risk analysis model to take into account disease recurrence, we found that SphK1 is a significant independent predictor for mortality in colon cancer patients. In vitro, the inhibition of SphK1 induced cell death in colon cancer cell lines and attenuated the serum-dependent PI3K/Akt signaling. Inhibition of SphK1 also enhanced the sensitivity of colon cancer cells to 5-FU.

CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the impact of SphK1 in colon cancer progression and patient survival, and provide evidence supportive of further development in combination strategies that incorporate SphK1 inhibition with current chemotherapeutic agents to improve colon cancer outcomes.