Neural and computational representations of decision variables

These studies explore how, where, and when representations of variables critical to decision-making are represented in the brain. In order to produce a decision, humans must first determine the relevant stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes before applying an algorithm that will select an action from those available. When choosing amongst alternative stimuli, the framework of value-based decision-making proposes that values are assigned to the stimuli and that these values are then compared in an abstract “value space” in order to produce a decision. Despite much progress, in particular regarding the pinpointing of ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) as a region that encodes the value, many basic questions remain. In Chapter 2, I show that distributed BOLD signaling in vmPFC represents the value of stimuli under consideration in a manner that is independent of the type of stimulus it is. Thus the open question of whether value is represented in abstraction, a key tenet of value-based decision-making, is confirmed. However, I also show that stimulus-dependent value representations are also present in the brain during decision-making and suggest a potential neural pathway for stimulus-to-value transformations that integrates these two results.

More broadly speaking, there is both neural and behavioral evidence that two distinct control systems are at work during action selection. These two systems compose the “goal-directed system”, which selects actions based on an internal model of the environment, and the “habitual” system, which generates responses based on antecedent stimuli only. Computational characterizations of these two systems imply that they have different informational requirements in terms of input stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes. Associative learning theory predicts that the habitual system should utilize stimulus and action information only, while goal-directed behavior requires that outcomes as well as stimuli and actions be processed. In Chapter 3, I test whether areas of the brain hypothesized to be involved in habitual versus goal-directed control represent the corresponding theorized variables.

The question of whether one or both of these neural systems drives Pavlovian conditioning is less well-studied. Chapter 4 describes an experiment in which subjects were scanned while engaged in a Pavlovian task with a simple non-trivial structure. After comparing a variety of model-based and model-free learning algorithms (thought to underpin goal-directed and habitual decision-making, respectively), it was found that subjects’ reaction times were better explained by a model-based system. In addition, neural signaling of precision, a variable based on a representation of a world model, was found in the amygdala. These data indicate that the influence of model-based representations of the environment can extend even to the most basic learning processes.

Knowledge of the state of hidden variables in an environment is required for optimal inference regarding the abstract decision structure of a given environment and therefore can be crucial to decision-making in a wide range of situations. Inferring the state of an abstract variable requires the generation and manipulation of an internal representation of beliefs over the values of the hidden variable. In Chapter 5, I describe behavioral and neural results regarding the learning strategies employed by human subjects in a hierarchical state-estimation task. In particular, a comprehensive model fit and comparison process pointed to the use of "belief thresholding". This implies that subjects tended to eliminate low-probability hypotheses regarding the state of the environment from their internal model and ceased to update the corresponding variables. Thus, in concert with incremental Bayesian learning, humans explicitly manipulate their internal model of the generative process during hierarchical inference consistent with a serial hypothesis testing strategy.

NAFTA Itunaren ondorioak Mexikoko ekonomian

The objective of this Final Project focuses on explaining how the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has affected the economy of Mexico. To achieve this, we have conducted a documentary research based on analysis of existing general and specific scientific literature on the subject from the objectives and hypotheses a priori. The framework is divided into several sections where the following issues are addressed: the processes of negotiation and adjustment plans that occurred before to signing the agreement; the aim and purpose of the agreement; the consequences of the covenant in the economy of Mexico, considering the decomposition of the status and importance of immigration; and finally, an analysis of the current situation of Mexico. This paper concludes with a set of final thoughts with hypothesis testing, and a theory about how different countries should cooperate in order to have a beneficial development in all parties.

Permutation Tests for Classification

We introduce and explore an approach to estimating statistical significance of classification accuracy, which is particularly useful in scientific applications of machine learning where high dimensionality of the data and the small number of training examples render most standard convergence bounds too loose to yield a meaningful guarantee of the generalization ability of the classifier. Instead, we estimate statistical significance of the observed classification accuracy, or the likelihood of observing such accuracy by chance due to spurious correlations of the high-dimensional data patterns with the class labels in the given training set. We adopt permutation testing, a non-parametric technique previously developed in classical statistics for hypothesis testing in the generative setting (i.e., comparing two probability distributions). We demonstrate the method on real examples from neuroimaging studies and DNA microarray analysis and suggest a theoretical analysis of the procedure that relates the asymptotic behavior of the test to the existing convergence bounds.

How Well Can TCP Infer Network State?

The Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) has been the protocol of choice for many Internet applications requiring reliable connections. The design of TCP has been challenged by the extension of connections over wireless links. We ask a fundamental question: What is the basic predictive power of TCP of network state, including wireless error conditions? The goal is to improve or readily exploit this predictive power to enable TCP (or variants) to perform well in generalized network settings. To that end, we use Maximum Likelihood Ratio tests to evaluate TCP as a detector/estimator. We quantify how well network state can be estimated, given network response such as distributions of packet delays or TCP throughput that are conditioned on the type of packet loss. Using our model-based approach and extensive simulations, we demonstrate that congestion-induced losses and losses due to wireless transmission errors produce sufficiently different statistics upon which an efficient detector can be built; distributions of network loads can provide effective means for estimating packet loss type; and packet delay is a better signal of network state than short-term throughput. We demonstrate how estimation accuracy is influenced by different proportions of congestion versus wireless losses and penalties on incorrect estimation.

Spikes, Synchrony, and Attentive Learning by Laminar Thalamocortical Circuits

This article develops the Synchronous Matching Adaptive Resonance Theory (SMART) neural model to explain how the brain may coordinate multiple levels of thalamocortical and corticocortical processing to rapidly learn, and stably remember, important information about a changing world. The model clarifies how bottom-up and top-down processes work together to realize this goal, notably how processes of learning, expectation, attention, resonance, and synchrony are coordinated. The model hereby clarifies, for the first time, how the following levels of brain organization coexist to realize cognitive processing properties that regulate fast learning and stable memory of brain representations: single cell properties, such as spiking dynamics, spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP), and acetylcholine modulation; detailed laminar thalamic and cortical circuit designs and their interactions; aggregate cell recordings, such as current-source densities and local field potentials; and single cell and large-scale inter-areal oscillations in the gamma and beta frequency domains. In particular, the model predicts how laminar circuits of multiple cortical areas interact with primary and higher-order specific thalamic nuclei and nonspecific thalamic nuclei to carry out attentive visual learning and information processing. The model simulates how synchronization of neuronal spiking occurs within and across brain regions, and triggers STDP. Matches between bottom-up adaptively filtered input patterns and learned top-down expectations cause gamma oscillations that support attention, resonance, and learning. Mismatches inhibit learning while causing beta oscillations during reset and hypothesis testing operations that are initiated in the deeper cortical layers. The generality of learned recognition codes is controlled by a vigilance process mediated by acetylcholine.

A Neural Network Architecture for Autonomous Learning, Recognition, and Prediction in a Nonstationary World

In a constantly changing world, humans are adapted to alternate routinely between attending to familiar objects and testing hypotheses about novel ones. We can rapidly learn to recognize and narne novel objects without unselectively disrupting our memories of familiar ones. We can notice fine details that differentiate nearly identical objects and generalize across broad classes of dissimilar objects. This chapter describes a class of self-organizing neural network architectures--called ARTMAP-- that are capable of fast, yet stable, on-line recognition learning, hypothesis testing, and naming in response to an arbitrary stream of input patterns (Carpenter, Grossberg, Markuzon, Reynolds, and Rosen, 1992; Carpenter, Grossberg, and Reynolds, 1991). The intrinsic stability of ARTMAP allows the system to learn incrementally for an unlimited period of time. System stability properties can be traced to the structure of its learned memories, which encode clusters of attended features into its recognition categories, rather than slow averages of category inputs. The level of detail in the learned attentional focus is determined moment-by-moment, depending on predictive success: an error due to over-generalization automatically focuses attention on additional input details enough of which are learned in a new recognition category so that the predictive error will not be repeated. An ARTMAP system creates an evolving map between a variable number of learned categories that compress one feature space (e.g., visual features) to learned categories of another feature space (e.g., auditory features). Input vectors can be either binary or analog. Computational properties of the networks enable them to perform significantly better in benchmark studies than alternative machine learning, genetic algorithm, or neural network models. Some of the critical problems that challenge and constrain any such autonomous learning system will next be illustrated. Design principles that work together to solve these problems are then outlined. These principles are realized in the ARTMAP architecture, which is specified as an algorithm. Finally, ARTMAP dynamics are illustrated by means of a series of benchmark simulations.

ARTMAP: Supervised Real-Time Learning and Classification of Nonstationary Data by a Self-Organizing Neural Network

This article introduces a new neural network architecture, called ARTMAP, that autonomously learns to classify arbitrarily many, arbitrarily ordered vectors into recognition categories based on predictive success. This supervised learning system is built up from a pair of Adaptive Resonance Theory modules (ARTa and ARTb) that are capable of self-organizing stable recognition categories in response to arbitrary sequences of input patterns. During training trials, the ARTa module receives a stream {a^(p)} of input patterns, and ARTb receives a stream {b^(p)} of input patterns, where b^(p) is the correct prediction given a^(p). These ART modules are linked by an associative learning network and an internal controller that ensures autonomous system operation in real time. During test trials, the remaining patterns a^(p) are presented without b^(p), and their predictions at ARTb are compared with b^(p). Tested on a benchmark machine learning database in both on-line and off-line simulations, the ARTMAP system learns orders of magnitude more quickly, efficiently, and accurately than alternative algorithms, and achieves 100% accuracy after training on less than half the input patterns in the database. It achieves these properties by using an internal controller that conjointly maximizes predictive generalization and minimizes predictive error by linking predictive success to category size on a trial-by-trial basis, using only local operations. This computation increases the vigilance parameter ρa of ARTa by the minimal amount needed to correct a predictive error at ARTb· Parameter ρa calibrates the minimum confidence that ARTa must have in a category, or hypothesis, activated by an input a^(p) in order for ARTa to accept that category, rather than search for a better one through an automatically controlled process of hypothesis testing. Parameter ρa is compared with the degree of match between a^(p) and the top-down learned expectation, or prototype, that is read-out subsequent to activation of an ARTa category. Search occurs if the degree of match is less than ρa. ARTMAP is hereby a type of self-organizing expert system that calibrates the selectivity of its hypotheses based upon predictive success. As a result, rare but important events can be quickly and sharply distinguished even if they are similar to frequent events with different consequences. Between input trials ρa relaxes to a baseline vigilance pa When ρa is large, the system runs in a conservative mode, wherein predictions are made only if the system is confident of the outcome. Very few false-alarm errors then occur at any stage of learning, yet the system reaches asymptote with no loss of speed. Because ARTMAP learning is self stabilizing, it can continue learning one or more databases, without degrading its corpus of memories, until its full memory capacity is utilized.

ART 2-A: An Adaptive Resonance Algorithm for Rapid Category Learning and Recognition

This article introduces ART 2-A, an efficient algorithm that emulates the self-organizing pattern recognition and hypothesis testing properties of the ART 2 neural network architecture, but at a speed two to three orders of magnitude faster. Analysis and simulations show how the ART 2-A systems correspond to ART 2 dynamics at both the fast-learn limit and at intermediate learning rates. Intermediate learning rates permit fast commitment of category nodes but slow recoding, analogous to properties of word frequency effects, encoding specificity effects, and episodic memory. Better noise tolerance is hereby achieved without a loss of learning stability. The ART 2 and ART 2-A systems are contrasted with the leader algorithm. The speed of ART 2-A makes practical the use of ART 2 modules in large-scale neural computation.

Policy impacts on Vietnam stock markets: a case of anomalies and disequilibria 2000-2006

Vietnam launched its first-ever stock market, named as Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center (HSTC) on July 20, 2000. This is one of pioneering works on HSTC, which finds empirical evidences for the following: Anomalies of the HSTC stock returns through clusters of limit-hits, limit-hit sequences; Strong herd effect toward extreme positive returns of the market portfolio;The specification of ARMA-GARCH helps capture fairly well issues such as serial correlations and fat-tailed for the stabilized period. By using further information and policy dummy variables, it is justifiable that policy decisions on technicalities of trading can have influential impacts on the move of risk level, through conditional variance behaviors of HSTC stock returns. Policies on trading and disclosure practices have had profound impacts on Vietnam Stock Market (VSM). The over-using of policy tools can harm the market and investing mentality. Price limits become increasingly irrelevant and prevent the market from self-adjusting to equilibrium. These results on VSM have not been reported before in the literature on Vietnam’s financial markets. Given the policy implications, we suggest that the Vietnamese authorities re-think the use of price limit and give more freedom to market participants.

Empirical Evidence of Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Vietnam’s Stock Returns Time Series

This paper confirms presence of GARCH(1,1) effect on stock return time series of Vietnam’s newborn stock market. We performed tests on four different time series, namely market returns (VN-Index), and return series of the first four individual stocks listed on the Vietnamese exchange (the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center) since August 2000. The results have been quite relevant to previously reported empirical studies on different markets.

The Vietnam's Transition Economy and Its Fledgling Financial Markets: 1986-2003

In this paper, we analyze the context of Vietnam’s economic standings in the reform period. The first section embarks on most remarkable factors, which promote the development of financial markets are: (i) Doi Moi policies in 1986 unleash ‘productive powers’. Real GDP growth, and key economic indicators improve. The economy truly departs from the old-style command economy; (ii) FDI component is present in the economy as sine qua non; a crucial growth engine, forming part of the financial markets, planting the ‘seeds’ for its growth; and (iii) the private economy is both the result and cause of the reform. Its growth is steady. Today, it represents a powerhouse, and helps form part of the genuine financial economy. A few noteworthy points found in the next section are: (i) No evidence of financial markets existence was found before Doi Moi. The reform has generated a bulk of private-sector financial companies. New developments have roots in the 1992-amended constitution (x3.2); (ii) The need to reform the financial started with the domino collapse of credit cooperatives in early 1990s. More stress is caused by the ‘blow’ of banking deficiency in late 1990s; and (iii) Laws on SBV and credit institutions, and the launch of the stock market are bold steps. Besides, the Asian financial turmoil forces the economy to reaffirm its reform agenda. Our findings also indicate, through empirical evidences, that economic conditions have stabilized throughout the reform, thanks to the contributions of the FDI and private economic sector. Private investment flows continue to be an eminent factor that drives the economy growth.

Essays on Vietnam’s Financial Reforms: Foreign Exchange Statistics and Evidence of Long-Run Equilibrium

In this paper, we examine exchange rates in Vietnam’s transitional economy. Evidence of long-run equilibrium are established in most cases through a single co-integrating vector among endogenous variables that determine the real exchange rates. This supports relative PPP in which ECT of the system can be combined linearly into a stationary process, reducing deviation from PPP in the long run. Restricted coefficient vectors ß’ = (1, 1, -1) for real exchange rates of currencies in question are not rejected. This empirics of relative PPP adds to found evidences by many researchers, including Flre et al. (1999), Lee (1999), Johnson (1990), Culver and Papell (1999), Cuddington and Liang (2001). Instead of testing for different time series on a common base currency, we use different base currencies (USD, GBP, JPY and EUR). By doing so we want to know the whether theory may posit significant differences against one currency? We have found consensus, given inevitable technical differences, even with smallerdata sample for EUR. Speeds of convergence to PPP and adjustment are faster compared to results from other researches for developed economies, using both observed and bootstrapped HL measures. Perhaps, a better explanation is the adjustment from hyperinflation period, after which the theory indicates that adjusting process actually accelerates. We observe that deviation appears to have been large in early stages of the reform, mostly overvaluation. Over time, its correction took place leading significant deviations to gradually disappear.

Analyses on Gold and US Dollar in Vietnam's Transitional Economy

This paper looks into economic insights offerred by considerations of two important financial markets in Vietnam, gold and USD. In general, the paper focuses on time series properties, mainly returns at different frequencies, and test the weak-form efficient market hypothesis. All the test rejects the efficiency of both gold and foreign exchange markets. All time series exhibit strong serial correlations. ARMA-GARCH specifications appear to have performed well with different time series. In all cases the changing volatility phenomenon is strongly supported through empirical data. An additional test is performed on the daily USD return to try to capture the impacts of Asian financial crisis and daily price limits applicable. No substantial impacts of the Asian crisis and the central bank-devised limits are found to influence the risk level of daily USD return.

Task-driven adaptive statistical compressive sensing of gaussian mixture models

A framework for adaptive and non-adaptive statistical compressive sensing is developed, where a statistical model replaces the standard sparsity model of classical compressive sensing. We propose within this framework optimal task-specific sensing protocols specifically and jointly designed for classification and reconstruction. A two-step adaptive sensing paradigm is developed, where online sensing is applied to detect the signal class in the first step, followed by a reconstruction step adapted to the detected class and the observed samples. The approach is based on information theory, here tailored for Gaussian mixture models (GMMs), where an information-theoretic objective relationship between the sensed signals and a representation of the specific task of interest is maximized. Experimental results using synthetic signals, Landsat satellite attributes, and natural images of different sizes and with different noise levels show the improvements achieved using the proposed framework when compared to more standard sensing protocols. The underlying formulation can be applied beyond GMMs, at the price of higher mathematical and computational complexity. © 1991-2012 IEEE.

Intervalos de confianza y pruebas de hipótesis : una comparación entre dos métodos para estimación de parámetros

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