A maximum likelihood approach for estimating growth from tag–recapture data

The Fabens method is commonly used to estimate growth parameters k and l infinity in the von Bertalanffy model from tag-recapture data. However, the Fabens method of estimation has an inherent bias when individual growth is variable. This paper presents an asymptotically unbiassed method using a maximum likelihood approach that takes account of individual variability in both maximum length and age-at-tagging. It is assumed that each individual's growth follows a von Bertalanffy curve with its own maximum length and age-at-tagging. The parameter k is assumed to be a constant to ensure that the mean growth follows a von Bertalanffy curve and to avoid overparameterization. Our method also makes more efficient use nf thp measurements at tno and recapture and includes diagnostic techniques for checking distributional assumptions. The method is reasonably robust and performs better than the Fabens method when individual growth differs from the von Bertalanffy relationship. When measurement error is negligible, the estimation involves maximizing the profile likelihood of one parameter only. The method is applied to tag-recapture data for the grooved tiger prawn (Penaeus semisulcatus) from the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia.

A quasi-likelihood method for fractal-dimension estimation

We propose a simple method of constructing quasi-likelihood functions for dependent data based on conditional-mean-variance relationships, and apply the method to estimating the fractal dimension from box-counting data. Simulation studies were carried out to compare this method with the traditional methods. We also applied this technique to real data from fishing grounds in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

A maximum-likelihood method for estimating natural mortality and catchability coefficient from catch-and-effort data

A simple stochastic model of a fish population subject to natural and fishing mortalities is described. The fishing effort is assumed to vary over different periods but to be constant within each period. A maximum-likelihood approach is developed for estimating natural mortality (M) and the catchability coefficient (q) simultaneously from catch-and-effort data. If there is not enough contrast in the data to provide reliable estimates of both M and q, as is often the case in practice, the method can be used to obtain the best possible values of q for a range of possible values of M. These techniques are illustrated with tiger prawn (Penaeus semisulcatus) data from the Northern Prawn Fishery of Australia.

A quasi-likelihood approach for ordered categorical data with overdispersion

Quasi-likelihood (QL) methods are often used to account for overdispersion in categorical data. This paper proposes a new way of constructing a QL function that stems from the conditional mean-variance relationship. Unlike traditional QL approaches to categorical data, this QL function is, in general, not a scaled version of the ordinary log-likelihood function. A simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of the proposed QL method. Fish mortality data from quantal response experiments are used for illustration.

Bayesian synthetic likelihood

Having the ability to work with complex models can be highly beneficial, but the computational cost of doing so is often large. Complex models often have intractable likelihoods, so methods that directly use the likelihood function are infeasible. In these situations, the benefits of working with likelihood-free methods become apparent. Likelihood-free methods, such as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood that uses the likelihood of an alternative parametric auxiliary model, have been explored throughout the literature as a good alternative when the model of interest is complex. One of these methods is called the synthetic likelihood (SL), which assumes a multivariate normal approximation to the likelihood of a summary statistic of interest. This paper explores the accuracy and computational efficiency of the Bayesian version of the synthetic likelihood (BSL) approach in comparison to a competitor known as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and its sensitivity to its tuning parameters and assumptions. We relate BSL to pseudo-marginal methods and propose to use an alternative SL that uses an unbiased estimator of the exact working normal likelihood when the summary statistic has a multivariate normal distribution. Several applications of varying complexity are considered to illustrate the findings of this paper.

Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data

It is common to model the dynamics of fisheries using natural and fishing mortality rates estimated independently using two separate analyses. Fishing mortality is routinely estimated from widely available logbook data, whereas natural mortality estimations have often required more specific, less frequently available, data. However, in the case of the fishery for brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay, both fishing and natural mortality rates have been estimated from logbook data. The present work extended the fishing mortality model to incorporate an eco-physiological response of tiger prawn to temperature, and allowed recruitment timing to vary from year to year. These ecological characteristics of the dynamics of this fishery were ignored in the separate model that estimated natural mortality. Therefore, we propose to estimate both natural and fishing mortality rates within a single model using a consistent set of hypotheses. This approach was applied to Moreton Bay brown tiger prawn data collected between 1990 and 2010. Natural mortality was estimated by maximum likelihood to be equal to 0.032 ± 0.002 week−1, approximately 30% lower than the fixed value used in previous models of this fishery (0.045 week−1).

Discriminative learning of Bayesian networks via factorized conditional log-likelihood

We propose an efficient and parameter-free scoring criterion, the factorized conditional log-likelihood (ˆfCLL), for learning Bayesian network classifiers. The proposed score is an approximation of the conditional log-likelihood criterion. The approximation is devised in order to guarantee decomposability over the network structure, as well as efficient estimation of the optimal parameters, achieving the same time and space complexity as the traditional log-likelihood scoring criterion. The resulting criterion has an information-theoretic interpretation based on interaction information, which exhibits its discriminative nature. To evaluate the performance of the proposed criterion, we present an empirical comparison with state-of-the-art classifiers. Results on a large suite of benchmark data sets from the UCI repository show that ˆfCLL-trained classifiers achieve at least as good accuracy as the best compared classifiers, using significantly less computational resources.

Performance analysis of single-symbol maximum likelihood decodable linear STBCs

Performance of space-time block codes can be improved using the coordinate interleaving of the input symbols from rotated M-ary phase shift keying (MPSK) and M-ary quadrature amplitude modulation (MQAM) constellations. This paper is on the performance analysis of coordinate-interleaved space-time codes, which are a subset of single-symbol maximum likelihood decodable linear space-time block codes, for wireless multiple antenna terminals. The analytical and simulation results show that full diversity is achievable. Using the equivalent single-input single-output model, simple expressions for the average bit error rates are derived over flat uncorrelated Rayleigh fading channels. Optimum rotation angles are found by finding the minimum of the average bit error rate curves.

Fast Likelihood Computation in Speech Recognition using Matrices

Acoustic modeling using mixtures of multivariate Gaussians is the prevalent approach for many speech processing problems. Computing likelihoods against a large set of Gaussians is required as a part of many speech processing systems and it is the computationally dominant phase for Large Vocabulary Continuous Speech Recognition (LVCSR) systems. We express the likelihood computation as a multiplication of matrices representing augmented feature vectors and Gaussian parameters. The computational gain of this approach over traditional methods is by exploiting the structure of these matrices and efficient implementation of their multiplication. In particular, we explore direct low-rank approximation of the Gaussian parameter matrix and indirect derivation of low-rank factors of the Gaussian parameter matrix by optimum approximation of the likelihood matrix. We show that both the methods lead to similar speedups but the latter leads to far lesser impact on the recognition accuracy. Experiments on 1,138 work vocabulary RM1 task and 6,224 word vocabulary TIMIT task using Sphinx 3.7 system show that, for a typical case the matrix multiplication based approach leads to overall speedup of 46 % on RM1 task and 115 % for TIMIT task. Our low-rank approximation methods provide a way for trading off recognition accuracy for a further increase in computational performance extending overall speedups up to 61 % for RM1 and 119 % for TIMIT for an increase of word error rate (WER) from 3.2 to 3.5 % for RM1 and for no increase in WER for TIMIT. We also express pairwise Euclidean distance computation phase in Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) in terms of matrix multiplication leading to saving of approximately of computational operations. In our experiments using efficient implementation of matrix multiplication, this leads to a speedup of 5.6 in computing the pairwise Euclidean distances and overall speedup up to 3.25 for DTW.

Fast acoustic likelihood computation using low-rank matrix approximation

Acoustic modeling using mixtures of multivariate Gaussians is the prevalent approach for many speech processing problems. Computing likelihoods against a large set of Gaussians is required as a part of many speech processing systems and it is the computationally dominant phase for LVCSR systems. We express the likelihood computation as a multiplication of matrices representing augmented feature vectors and Gaussian parameters. The computational gain of this approach over traditional methods is by exploiting the structure of these matrices and efficient implementation of their multiplication.In particular, we explore direct low-rank approximation of the Gaussian parameter matrix and indirect derivation of low-rank factors of the Gaussian parameter matrix by optimum approximation of the likelihood matrix. We show that both the methods lead to similar speedups but the latter leads to far lesser impact on the recognition accuracy. Experiments on a 1138 word vocabulary RM1 task using Sphinx 3.7 system show that, for a typical case the matrix multiplication approach leads to overall speedup of 46%. Both the low-rank approximation methods increase the speedup to around 60%, with the former method increasing the word error rate (WER) from 3.2% to 6.6%, while the latter increases the WER from 3.2% to 3.5%.

Maximum likelihood algorithms for joint estimation of synchronisation impairments and channel in multiple input multiple output-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing system

Maximum likelihood (ML) algorithms, for the joint estimation of synchronisation impairments and channel in multiple input multiple output-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) system, are investigated in this work. A system model that takes into account the effects of carrier frequency offset, sampling frequency offset, symbol timing error and channel impulse response is formulated. Cramer-Rao lower bounds for the estimation of continuous parameters are derived, which show the coupling effect among different impairments and the significance of the joint estimation. The authors propose an ML algorithm for the estimation of synchronisation impairments and channel together, using the grid search method. To reduce the complexity of the joint grid search in the ML algorithm, a modified ML (MML) algorithm with multiple one-dimensional searches is also proposed. Further, a stage-wise ML (SML) algorithm using existing algorithms, which estimate less number of parameters, is also proposed. Performance of the estimation algorithms is studied through numerical simulations and it is found that the proposed ML and MML algorithms exhibit better performance than SML algorithm.

A Phase Transition for the Uniform Distribution in the Pattern Maximum Likelihood Problem

In this paper, we consider the setting of the pattern maximum likelihood (PML) problem studied by Orlitsky et al. We present a well-motivated heuristic algorithm for deciding the question of when the PML distribution of a given pattern is uniform. The algorithm is based on the concept of a ``uniform threshold''. This is a threshold at which the uniform distribution exhibits an interesting phase transition in the PML problem, going from being a local maximum to being a local minimum.