A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Effects of sampling opportunities on preference for adults with severe disabilities

A variable that appears to affect preference development is the exposure to a variety of options. Providing opportunities for systematically sampling different options is one procedure that can facilitate the development of preference, which is indicated by the consistency of selections. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of providing sampling opportunities on the preference development for two adults with severe disabilities. Opportunities for sampling a variety of drink items were presented, followed by choice opportunities for selections at the site where sampling occurred and at a non-sampling site (a grocery store). Results show that the participants developed a definite response consistency in selections at both sites. Implications for sampling practices are discussed.

Path integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This note presents a method of evaluating the distribution of a path integral for Markov chains on a countable state space.

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. I. Faecal pellet sampling protocol

Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in eastern Australia are threatened by land clearing for agricultural and urban development. At the same time, conservation efforts are hindered by a dearth of information about inland populations. Faecal deposits offer a source of information that is readily available and easily collected non-invasively. We detail a faecal pellet sampling protocol that was developed for use in a large rangeland biogeographic region. The method samples trees in belt transects, uses a thorough search at the tree base to quickly identify trees with koala pellets under them, then estimates the abundance of faecal pellets under those trees using 1-m(2) quadrats. There was a strong linear relationship between these estimates and a complete enumeration of pellet abundance under the same trees. We evaluated the accuracy of our method in detecting trees where pellets were present by means of a misclassification index that was weighed more heavily for missed trees that had high numbers of pellets under them. This showed acceptable accuracy in all landforms except riverine, where some trees with large numbers of pellets were missed. Here, accuracy in detecting pellet presence was improved by sampling with quadrats, rather than basal searches. Finally, we developed a method to reliably age pellets and demonstrate how this protocol could be used with the faecal-standing-crop method to derive a regional estimate of absolute koala abundance.

Two-dimensional balanced sampling plans excluding contiguous units

A balanced sampling plan excluding contiguous units (or BSEC for short) was first introduced by Hedayat, Rao and Stufken in 1988. These designs can be used for survey sampling when the units are arranged in one-dimensional ordering and the contiguous units in this ordering provide similar information. In this paper, we generalize the concept of a BSEC to the two-dimensional situation and give constructions of two-dimensional BSECs with block size 3. The existence problem is completely solved in the case where lambda = 1.

The impact of participation in activities while on vacation on senior's psychological well-being: A path model application

This article extends earlier research regarding the relationships between senior travelers’ participation in activities while on vacation, their overall satisfaction with their travel experiences, and their psychological well-being. A path model was developed to depict the direct and indirect relationships between these variables by using a sample of senior tourists traveling on North American escorted tour itineraries. Whereas the direct effect accounted for 98% of the relationships between the senior tourists’ levels of participation in activities and their psychological well-being, the indirect effect was negligible. The study concluded that senior tourists’activity levels were significantly related to their psychological well-being, but their satisfaction with the tours was not.

Evaluation of line-transect sampling for estimating koala abundance in the Pine Rivers Shire, south-east Queensland

Distance sampling using line transects has not been previously used or tested for estimating koala abundance. In July 2001, a pilot survey was conducted to compare the use of line transects with strip transects for estimating koala abundance. Both methods provided a similar estimate of density. On the basis of the results of the pilot survey, the distribution and abundance of koalas in the Pine Rivers Shire, south-east Queensland, was determined using line-transect sampling. In total, 134 lines (length 64 km) were used to sample bushland areas. Eighty-two independent koalas were sighted. Analysis of the frequency distribution of sighting distances using the software program DISTANCE enabled a global detection function to be estimated for survey sites in bushland areas across the Shire. Abundance in urban parts of the Shire was estimated from densities obtained from total counts at eight urban sites that ranged from 26 to 51 ha in size. Koala abundance in the Pine Rivers Shire was estimated at 4584 (95% confidence interval, 4040-5247). Line-transect sampling is a useful method for estimating koala abundance provided experienced koala observers are used when conducting surveys.

Distribution of Chlamydia pneumoniae DNA in atherosclerotic carotid arteries: significance for sampling procedures

Despite extensive efforts to confirm a direct association between Chlamydia pneumoniae and atherosclerosis, different laboratories continue to report a large variability in detection rates. In this study, we analyzed multiple sections from atherosclerotic carotid arteries from 10 endartectomy patients to determine the location of C. pneumoniae DNA and the number of sections of the plaque required for analysis to obtain a 95% confidence of detecting the bacterium. A sensitive nested PCR assay detected C. pneumoniae DNA in all patients at one or more locations within the plaque. On average, 42% (ranging from 5 to 91%) of the sections from any single patient had C. pneumoniae DNA present. A patchy distribution of C. pneumoniae in the atherosclerotic lesions was observed, with no area of the carotid having significantly more C. pneumoniae DNA present. If a single random 30-mum-thick section was tested, there was only a 35.6 to 41.6% (95% confidence interval) chance of detecting C. pneumoniae DNA in a patient with carotid artery disease. A minimum of 15 sections would therefore be required to obtain a 95% chance of detecting all true positives. The low concentration and patchy distribution of C. pneumoniae DNA in atherosclerotic plaque appear to be among the reasons for inconsistency between laboratories in the results reported.

Parathyroid hormone venous sampling prior to reoperation for primary hyperparathyroidism

Background: The surgical cure rate for primary hyperparathyroidism is greater than 95%. For those who have recurrent or persistent disease, preoperative localization improves reoperation success rates. Selective parathyroid venous sampling (SPVS) for intact parathyroid hormone is particularly useful when non-invasive localization techniques are negative or inconclusive. Methods: We present all known cases (n = 13) between 1994 and 2002 who had venous sampling for localization at our institution prior to reoperation for recurrent or persistent primary hyperparathyroidism. Comparison was made with non-invasive localization procedures. Results of invasive and non-invasive localization were correlated with surgical findings. Results: Of the nine reoperated cases, eight had positive correlations between SPVS and operative findings and histopathology. SPVS did not reveal the parathyroid hormone source in one case with negative non-invasive localization procedures. Comparisons between SPVS, computerized tomography (CT), and parathyroid scintigraphy (MIBI) as expressed in terms of true positive (TP), false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) were: SPVS - TP 88.8%, FP 0%, FN 11.1%; CT - TP 22.2%, FP 22.2%, FN 55.5%; and MIBI - TP 33.3%, FP 0%, FN 66.6%. At least seven of the nine operated cases have been cured; another remained normocalcaemic 2 weeks after subtotal parathyroidectomy. Conclusion: In our institution SPVS has proven to be a valuable tool in cases with recurrent or persistent primary hyperparathyroidism and negative non-invasive localization procedures.

Path-dependence, expectativas e regulação econômica : elementos de análise a partir de uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana

O artigo busca fazer uma relação entre a ocorrência de path-dependence, a natureza expectacional do investimento e as flutuações econômicas, a partir de um referencial pós-keynesiano de análise. Em um ambiente não-ergódico, a fim de que o sistema tenha uma relativa estabilidade no tempo, a regulação econômica requer muito mais do que simples ajustamentos incrementais. Tornam-se necessárias, e possíveis, modificações qualitativas do sistema econômico. Tais modificações são analisadas a partir do conceito de bifurcação.

Certification and integration of environment with quality and safety – a path to sustained success

According to Wright [1] certification of products and processes began during the 1960’s in the manufacturing industry, as a tool to control and assure the quality/conformity of products and services provided by suppliers to customers/consumers. Thus, the series of ISO 9000 was published first time, in 1987 and it was been created with a flexible character, to be reviewed periodically. Later, were published others normative references, which highlight the ISO 14001 in 1996 and OHSAS 18001 in 1999. This was also, the natural sequence of the certification processes in the organizations, i.e., began with the certification of quality management systems (QMS) followed by the environmental management systems (EMS) and after for the Occupational Health and Safety Management System (OHSMS). Hence, a high percentage of organizations with an EMS, in accordance with the ISO 14001, had also implemented, a certified QMS, in accordance with ISO 9001. At first the implementation of a QMS was particularly relevant in high demanding activity sectors, like the automotive and aeronautical industries, but it has rapidly extended to every activity sector, becoming a common requisite of any company worldwide and a factor of competitiveness and survival. Due to the increasingly demanding environmental legislation in developed countries, companies nowadays are required to seriously take into consideration not only environmental aspects associated to the production chain itself, but also to the life cycle of their products.

Phenotypic correlations and path analysis for plant architecture traits and grain production in three generations of cowpea

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to analyze the phenotypic correlation and path analysis of traits related to plant architecture, earliness and grain yield in F2, BC1 and BC2 generations, from crosses between cowpea cultivars BRS Carijó and BR14 Mulato. Most phenotypic correlations of the examined traits were concordant in statistical significance, with approximate values ​​among the examined generations. For the trait seed weight, significant and positive phenotypic correlations were observed in the three generations only for the trait number of secondary branches. The values ​​of the direct effects were in agreement with the values ​​of the phenotypic correlations, which indicate true association by the phenotypic correlation among the traits of grain yield examined. Path analysis indicated that the selection of productive plants will result in early plants and an increased number of secondary branches. In F2, plants with shorter length of the main branch and shorter length of secondary branches can be obtained. The causal model explained 15 to 30% of the total variation in grain weight in relation to the traits examined. The analyses indicated the possibility of selecting plants with a higher and early grain yield, shorter length of primary branches and lower number of nodes, which are important variables for mechanical or semi-mechanical harvesting.