A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival using a multistate model for the sojourn times

In clinical trials, it may be of interest taking into account physical and emotional well-being in addition to survival when comparing treatments. Quality-adjusted survival time has the advantage of incorporating information about both survival time and quality-of-life. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models for the sojourn times in health states. Semiparametric and parametric (with exponential distribution) approaches are considered. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to compute bias and variance of the estimator. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Generalized Log-Normal Model for Grouped Survival Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Survival probability of large rapidity gaps in a QCD model with a dynamical infrared mass scale

We compute the survival probability {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} of large rapidity gaps (LRG) in a QCD based eikonal model with a dynamical gluon mass, where this dynamical infrared mass scale represents the onset of nonperturbative contributions to the diffractive hadron-hadron scattering. Since rapidity gaps can occur in the case of Higgs boson production via fusion of electroweak bosons, we focus on WW -> H fusion processes and show that the resulting {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} decreases with the increase of the energy of the incoming hadrons; in line with the available experimental data for LRG. We obtain {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} = 27.6 +/- 7.8% (18.2 +/- 17.0%) at Tevatron (CERN-LHC) energy for a dynamical gluon mass m(g) = 400 MeV. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

THE LOG-BURR XII REGRESSION MODEL FOR GROUPED SURVIVAL DATA

The log-Burr XII regression model for grouped survival data is evaluated in the presence of many ties. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, where the times are grouped in k intervals, and we fit discrete lifetime regression models to the data. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed model, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, so-called global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to these measures, the total local influence and influential estimates are also used. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to assess the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of the proposed model for grouped survival. A real data set is analyzed using a regression model for grouped data.

Stripe-tetragonal phase transition in the two-dimensional Ising model with dipole interactions: Partition function zeros approach

We have performed multicanonical simulations to study the critical behavior of the two-dimensional Ising model with dipole interactions. This study concerns the thermodynamic phase transitions in the range of the interaction delta where the phase characterized by striped configurations of width h = 1 is observed. Controversial results obtained from local update algorithms have been reported for this region, including the claimed existence of a second-order phase transition line that becomes first order above a tricritical point located somewhere between delta = 0.85 and 1. Our analysis relies on the complex partition function zeros obtained with high statistics from multicanonical simulations. Finite size scaling relations for the leading partition function zeros yield critical exponents. that are clearly consistent with a single second-order phase transition line, thus excluding such a tricritical point in that region of the phase diagram. This conclusion is further supported by analysis of the specific heat and susceptibility of the orientational order parameter.

The role of androgens on hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1α-induced angiogenesis and on the survival of ischemically challenged skin flaps in a rat model

Effects of androgens on angiogenesis are controversial. Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1α promotes expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) that stimulates angiogenesis.

A Note on the Asymptotic Variance of Survival Function in the Semi-Markov Model

In Malani and Neilsen (1992) we have proposed alternative estimates of survival function (for time to disease) using a simple marker that describes time to some intermediate stage in a disease process. In this paper we derive the asymptotic variance of one such proposed estimator using two different methods and compare terms of order 1/n when there is no censoring. In the absence of censoring the asymptotic variance obtained using the Greenwood type approach converges to exact variance up to terms involving 1/n. But the asymptotic variance obtained using the theory of the counting process and results from Voelkel and Crowley (1984) on semi-Markov processes has a different term of order 1/n. It is not clear to us at this point why the variance formulae using the latter approach give different results.

Effects of GDNF pretreatment on function and survival of transplanted fetal ventral mesencephalic cells in the 6-OHDA rat model of Parkinson's disease

Transplantation of fetal dopaminergic (DA) neurons offers an experimental therapy for Parkinson's disease (PD). The low availability and the poor survival and integration of transplanted cells in the host brain are major obstacles in this approach. Glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) is a potent neurotrophic factor with growth- and survival-promoting capabilities for developing DA neurons. In the present study, we examined whether pretreatment of ventral mesencephalic (VM) free-floating roller tube (FFRT) cultures with GDNF would improve graft survival and function. For that purpose organotypic cultures of E14 rat VM were grown for 2, 4 or 8 days in the absence (control) or presence of GDNF [10 ng/ml] and transplanted into the striatum of 6-hydroxydopamine-lesioned rats. While all groups of rats showed a significant reduction in d-amphetamine-induced rotations at 6 weeks posttransplantation a significantly improved graft function was observed only in the days in vitro (DIV) 4 GDNF pretreated group compared to the control group. In addition, no statistical significant differences between groups were found in the number of surviving tyrosine hydroxylase-immunoreactive (TH-ir) neurons assessed at 9 weeks posttransplantation. However, a tendency for higher TH-ir fiber outgrowth from the transplants in the GDNF pretreated groups as compared to corresponding controls was observed. Furthermore, GDNF pretreatment showed a tendency for a higher number of GIRK2 positive neurons in the grafts. In sum, our findings demonstrate that GDNF pretreatment was not disadvantageous for transplants of embryonic rat VM with the FFRT culture technique but only marginally improved graft survival and function.

A vaccine formulation combining rhoptry proteins NcROP40 and NcROP2 improves pup survival in a pregnant mouse model of neosporosis.

Currently there are no effective vaccines for the control of bovine neosporosis. During the last years several subunit vaccines based on immunodominant antigens and other proteins involved in adhesion, invasion and intracellular proliferation of Neospora caninum have been evaluated as targets for vaccine development in experimental mouse infection models. Among them, the rhoptry antigen NcROP2 and the immunodominant NcGRA7 protein have been assessed with varying results. Recent studies have shown that another rhoptry component, NcROP40, and NcNTPase, a putative dense granule antigen, exhibit higher expression levels in tachyzoites of virulent N. caninum isolates, suggesting that these could be potential vaccine candidates to limit the effects of infection. In the present work, the safety and efficacy of these recombinant antigens formulated in Quil-A adjuvant as monovalent vaccines or pair-wise combinations (rNcROP40+rNcROP2 and rNcGRA7+rNcNTPase) were evaluated in a pregnant mouse model of neosporosis. All the vaccine formulations elicited a specific immune response against their respective native proteins after immunization. Mice vaccinated with rNcROP40 and rNcROP2 alone or in combination produced the highest levels of IFN-γ and exhibited low parasite burdens and low IgG antibody levels after the challenge. In addition, most of the vaccine formulations were able to increase the median survival time in the offspring. However, pup survival only ensued in the groups vaccinated with rNcROP40+rNcROP2 (16.2%) and rNcROP2 (6.3%). Interestingly, vertical transmission was not observed in those survivor pups immunized with rNcROP40+rNcROP2, as shown by PCR analyses. These results show a partial protection against N. caninum infection after vaccination with rNcROP40+rNcROP2, suggesting a synergistic effect of the two recombinant rhoptry antigens.

A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^

Cardiac βARK1 inhibition prolongs survival and augments β blocker therapy in a mouse model of severe heart failure

Chronic human heart failure is characterized by abnormalities in β-adrenergic receptor (βAR) signaling, including increased levels of βAR kinase 1 (βARK1), which seems critical to the pathogenesis of the disease. To determine whether inhibition of βARK1 is sufficient to rescue a model of severe heart failure, we mated transgenic mice overexpressing a peptide inhibitor of βARK1 (βARKct) with transgenic mice overexpressing the sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+-binding protein, calsequestrin (CSQ). CSQ mice have a severe cardiomyopathy and markedly shortened survival (9 ± 1 weeks). In contrast, CSQ/βARKct mice exhibited a significant increase in mean survival age (15 ± 1 weeks; P < 0.0001) and showed less cardiac dilation, and cardiac function was significantly improved (CSQ vs. CSQ/βARKct, left ventricular end diastolic dimension 5.60 ± 0.17 mm vs. 4.19 ± 0.09 mm, P < 0.005; % fractional shortening, 15 ± 2 vs. 36 ± 2, P < 0.005). The enhancement of the survival rate in CSQ/βARKct mice was substantially potentiated by chronic treatment with the βAR antagonist metoprolol (CSQ/βARKct nontreated vs. CSQ/βARKct metoprolol treated, 15 ± 1 weeks vs. 25 ± 2 weeks, P < 0.0001). Thus, overexpression of the βARKct resulted in a marked prolongation in survival and improved cardiac function in a mouse model of severe cardiomyopathy that can be potentiated with β-blocker therapy. These data demonstrate a significant synergy between an established heart-failure treatment and the strategy of βARK1 inhibition.