Asymmetric response of demand-supply mismatch to investor's sentiment

We look through both the demand and supply side information to understand dynamics of price determination in the real estate market and examine how accurately investors’ attitudes predict the market returns and thereby flagging off extent of any demand-supply mismatch. Our hypothesis is based on the possibility that investors’ call for action in terms of their buy/sell decision and adjustment in reservation/offer prices may indicate impending demand-supply imbalances in the market. In the process, we study several real estate sectors to inform our analysis. The timeframe of our analysis (1995-2010) allows us to observe market dynamics over several economic cycles and in various stages of those cycles. Additionally, we also seek to understand how investors’ attitude or the sentiment affects the market activity over the cycles through asymmetric responses. We test our hypothesis variously using a number of measures of market activity and attitude indicators within several model specifications. The empirical models are estimated using Vector Error Correction framework. Our analysis suggests that investors’ attitude exert strong and statistically significant feedback effects in price determination. Moreover, these effects do reveal heterogeneous responses across the real estate sectors. Interestingly, our results indicate the asymmetric responses during boom, normal and recessionary periods. These results are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings.

Bias or rationality? The case of UK commercial real estate investment

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that investment decision making in the UK direct property market does not conform to the assumption of economic rationality underpinning portfolio theory. Design/methodology/approach – The developing behavioural real estate paradigm is used to challenge the idea that investor “man” is able to perform with economic rationality, specifically with reference to the analysis of the spatial dispersion of the entire UK “investible stock” and “investible locations” against observed spatial patterns of institutional investment. Location quotients are derived, combining different data sets. Findings – Considerably greater variation in institutional property holdings is found across the UK than would be expected given the economic and stock characteristics of local areas. This appears to provide evidence of irrationality (in the strict traditional economic sense) in the behaviour of institutional investors, with possible herding underpinning levels of investment that cannot be explained otherwise. Research limitations/implications – Over time a lack of distinction has developed between the cause and effect of comparatively low levels of development and institutional property investment across the regions. A critical examination of decision making and behaviour in practice could break this cycle, and could in turn promote regional economic growth. Originality/value – The entire “population” of observations is used to demonstrate the relationships between economic theory and investor performance exploring, for the first time, stock and local area characteristics.

Contemporary ordinary language philosophy

There is a widespread assumption that ordinary language philosophy was killed off sometime in the 1960s or 70s by a combination of Gricean pragmatics and the rapid development of systematic semantic theory. Contrary to that widespread assumption, however, contemporary versions of ordinary language philosophy are alive and flourishing, but going by various aliases—in particular (some versions of) "contextualism" and (some versions of) "experimental philosophy". And a growing group of contemporary philosophers are explicitly embracing the methods as well as the title of ordinary language philosophy and arguing that it has been unfairly maligned and was never decisively refuted. In this overview, I will outline the main projects and arguments employed by contemporary ordinary language philosophers, and make the case that updated versions of the arguments made by ordinary language philosophers in the middle of the twentieth century are attracting renewed attention.

Institutional investors: arbitrageurs or rational trend chasers?

This paper studies the relationship between institutional investor holdings and stock misvaluation in the U.S. between 1980 and 2010. I find that institutional investors overweigh overvalued and underweigh undervalued stocks in their portfolio, taking the market portfolio as a benchmark. Cross-sectionally, institutional investors hold more overvalued stocks than undervalued stocks. The time-series studies also show that institutional ownership of overvalued portfolios increases as the portfolios' degree of overvaluation. As an investment strategy, institutional investors' ride of stock misvaluation is neither driven by the fund flows from individual investors into institutions, nor industry-specific. Consistent with the agency problem explanation, investment companies and independent investment advisors have a higher tendency to ride stock misvaluation than other institutions. There is weak evidence that institutional investors make positive profit by riding stock misvaluation. My findings challenge the models that view individual investors as noise traders and disregard the role of institutional investors in stock market misvaluation.

Global properties of `ordinary` early-type galaxies: photometry and spectroscopy of stars and globular clusters in NGC 4494

We present a comprehensive analysis of the spatial, kinematic and chemical properties of stars and globular clusters (GCs) in the `ordinary` elliptical galaxy NGC 4494 using data from the Keck and Subaru telescopes. We derive galaxy surface brightness and colour profiles out to large galactocentric radii. We compare the latter to metallicities derived using the near-infrared Calcium Triplet. We obtain stellar kinematics out to similar to 3.5 effective radii. The latter appear flattened or elongated beyond similar to 1.8 effective radii in contrast to the relatively round photometric isophotes. In fact, NGC 4494 may be a flattened galaxy, possibly even an S0, seen at an inclination of similar to 45 degrees. We publish a catalogue of 431 GC candidates brighter than i(0) = 24 based on the photometry, of which 109 are confirmed spectroscopically and 54 have measured spectroscopic metallicities. We also report the discovery of three spectroscopically confirmed ultra-compact dwarfs around NGC 4494 with measured metallicities of -0.4 less than or similar to [Fe/H] less than or similar to -0.3. Based on their properties, we conclude that they are simply bright GCs. The metal-poor GCs are found to be rotating with similar amplitude as the galaxy stars, while the metal-rich GCs show marginal rotation. We supplement our analysis with available literature data and results. Using model predictions of galaxy formation, and a suite of merger simulations, we find that many of the observational properties of NGC 4494 may be explained by formation in a relatively recent gas-rich major merger. Complete studies of individual galaxies incorporating a range of observational avenues and methods such as the one presented here will be an invaluable tool for constraining the fine details of galaxy formation models, especially at large galactocentric radii.

Estimation or simulation? That is the question

The issue of smoothing in kriging has been addressed either by estimation or simulation. The solution via estimation calls for postprocessing kriging estimates in order to correct the smoothing effect. Stochastic simulation provides equiprobable images presenting no smoothing and reproducing the covariance model. Consequently, these images reproduce both the sample histogram and the sample semivariogram. However, there is still a problem, which is the lack of local accuracy of simulated images. In this paper, a postprocessing algorithm for correcting the smoothing effect of ordinary kriging estimates is compared with sequential Gaussian simulation realizations. Based on samples drawn from exhaustive data sets, the postprocessing algorithm is shown to be superior to any individual simulation realization yet, at the expense of providing one deterministic estimate of the random function.

Essays on asymmetric information problems without the single-crossing property: applications to corporate finance

The objective of this dissertation is to re-examine classical issues in corporate finance, applying a new analytical tool. The single-crossing property, also called Spence-irrlees condition, is not required in the models developed here. This property has been a standard assumption in adverse selection and signaling models developed so far. The classical papers by Guesnerie and Laffont (1984) and Riley (1979) assume it. In the simplest case, for a consumer with a privately known taste, the single-crossing property states that the marginal utility of a good is monotone with respect to the taste. This assumption has an important consequence to the result of the model: the relationship between the private parameter and the quantity of the good assigned to the agent is monotone. While single crossing is a reasonable property for the utility of an ordinary consumer, this property is frequently absent in the objective function of the agents for more elaborate models. The lack of a characterization for the non-single crossing context has hindered the exploration of models that generate objective functions without this property. The first work that characterizes the optimal contract without the single-crossing property is Araújo and Moreira (2001a) and, for the competitive case, Araújo and Moreira (2001b). The main implication is that a partial separation of types may be observed. Two sets of disconnected types of agents may choose the same contract, in adverse selection problems, or signal with the same levei of signal, in signaling models.

The value of ISE : main studies and investor perspective

This study has been prepared with the aim of bringing together the main research lines that seek to identify and convey the value of participating in initiatives like the ISE. This document is structured on three major fronts. On the first front, we conducted a survey to collect the main data on SRI trends in the two largest market niches: Europe and the United States, besides results from an MIT research study conducted among executives on the value of sustainability in the current market. Next, we carried out a non-exhaustive survey on academic studies that seek to identify the intangible and tangible gains achieved by companies through their participation in the ISE or related initiatives. Finally, we present the results of a survey done with major Brazilian pension funds aimed at investigating the knowledge of the ISE and how it could be used in their analysis and decision-making process.

Has investor protection been rendered obsolete by the Argentine crisis?

Includes bibliography

Ordinary fractional differential equations are in fact usual entire ordinary differential equations on time scales

Despite the huge number of works considering fractional derivatives or derivatives on time scales some basic facts remain to be evaluated. Here we will be showing that the fractional derivative of monomials is in fact an entire derivative considered on an appropriate time scale.

Supramolecular functional assemblies with photo or chemical addressability

Supramolecular self-assembly represents a key technology for the spontaneous construction of nanoarchitectures and for the fabrication of materials with enhanced physical and chemical properties. In addition, a significant asset of supramolecular self-assemblies rests on their reversible formation, thanks to the kinetic lability of their non-covalent interactions. This dynamic nature can be exploited for the development of “self-healing” and “smart” materials towards the tuning of their functional properties upon various external factors. One particular intriguing objective in the field is to reach a high level of control over the shape and size of the supramolecular architectures, in order to produce well-defined functional nanostructures by rational design. In this direction, many investigations have been pursued toward the construction of self-assembled objects from numerous low-molecular weight scaffolds, for instance by exploiting multiple directional hydrogen-bonding interactions. In particular, nucleobases have been used as supramolecular synthons as a result of their efficiency to code for non-covalent interaction motifs. Among nucleobases, guanine represents the most versatile one, because of its different H-bond donor and acceptor sites which display self-complementary patterns of interactions. Interestingly, and depending on the environmental conditions, guanosine derivatives can form various types of structures. Most of the supramolecular architectures reported in this Thesis from guanosine derivatives require the presence of a cation which stabilizes, via dipole-ion interactions, the macrocyclic G-quartet that can, in turn, stack in columnar G-quadruplex arrangements. In addition, in absence of cations, guanosine can polymerize via hydrogen bonding to give a variety of supramolecular networks including linear ribbons. This complex supramolecular behavior confers to the guanine-guanine interactions their upper interest among all the homonucleobases studied. They have been subjected to intense investigations in various areas ranging from structural biology and medicinal chemistry – guanine-rich sequences are abundant in telomeric ends of chromosomes and promoter regions of DNA, and are capable of forming G-quartet based structures– to material science and nanotechnology. This Thesis, organized into five Chapters, describes mainly some recent advances in the form and function provided by self-assembly of guanine based systems. More generally, Chapter 4 will focus on the construction of supramolecular self-assemblies whose self-assembling process and self-assembled architectures can be controlled by light as external stimulus. Chapter 1 will describe some of the many recent studies of G-quartets in the general area of nanoscience. Natural G- quadruplexes can be useful motifs to build new structures and biomaterials such as self-assembled nanomachines, biosensors, therapeutic aptamer and catalysts. In Chapters 2-4 it is pointed out the core concept held in this PhD Thesis, i.e. the supramolecular organization of lipophilic guanosine derivatives with photo or chemical addressability. Chapter 2 will mainly focus on the use of cation-templated guanosine derivatives as a potential scaffold for designing functional materials with tailored physical properties, showing a new way to control the bottom-up realization of well-defined nanoarchitectures. In section 2.6.7, the self-assembly properties of compound 28a may be considered an example of open-shell moieties ordered by a supramolecular guanosine architecture showing a new (magnetic) property. Chapter 3 will report on ribbon-like structures, supramolecular architectures formed by guanosine derivatives that may be of interest for the fabrication of molecular nanowires within the framework of future molecular electronic applications. In section 3.4 we investigate the supramolecular polymerizations of derivatives dG 1 and G 30 by light scattering technique and TEM experiments. The obtained data reveal the presence of several levels of organization due to the hierarchical self-assembly of the guanosine units in ribbons that in turn aggregate in fibrillar or lamellar soft structures. The elucidation of these structures furnishes an explanation to the physical behaviour of guanosine units which display organogelator properties. Chapter 4 will describe photoresponsive self-assembling systems. Numerous research examples have demonstrated that the use of photochromic molecules in supramolecular self-assemblies is the most reasonable method to noninvasively manipulate their degree of aggregation and supramolecular architectures. In section 4.4 we report on the photocontrolled self-assembly of modified guanosine nucleobase E-42: by the introduction of a photoactive moiety at C8 it is possible to operate a photocontrol over the self-assembly of the molecule, where the existence of G-quartets can be alternately switched on and off. In section 4.5 we focus on the use of cyclodextrins as photoresponsive host-guest assemblies: αCD–azobenzene conjugates 47-48 (section 4.5.3) are synthesized in order to obtain a photoresponsive system exhibiting a fine photocontrollable degree of aggregation and self-assembled architecture. Finally, Chapter 5 contains the experimental protocols used for the research described in Chapters 2-4.

Informationsstrukturen der protokollbasierten Medizin

Die protokollbasierte Medizin stellt einen interdisziplinären Brennpunkt der Informatik dar. Als besonderer Ausschnitt der medizinischen Teilgebiete erlaubt sie die relativ formale Spezifikation von Prozessen in den drei Bereichen der Prävention, Diagnose und Therapie.Letzterer wurde immer besonders fokussiert und gilt seit jeher im Rahmen klinischer Studien als Projektionsfläche für informationstechnologische Konzepte. Die Euphorie der frühen Jahre ernüchtert sich jedoch bei jeder Bilanz. Nur sehr wenige der unzählbaren Projekte haben ihre Routine in der alltäglichen Praxis gefunden. Die meisten Vorhaben sind an der Illusion der vollständigen Berechenbarkeit medizinischer Arbeitsabläufe gescheitert. Die traditionelle Sichtweise der klinischen Praxis beruht auf einer blockorientierten Vorstellung des Therapieausführungsprozesses. Sie entsteht durch seine Zerlegung in einzelne Therapiezweige, welche aus vordefinierten Blöcken zusammengesetzt sind. Diese können sequentiell oder parallel ausgeführt werden und sind selbst zusammengesetzt aus jeweils einer Menge von Elementen,welche die Aktivitäten der untersten Ebene darstellen. Das blockorientierte Aufbaumodell wird ergänzt durch ein regelorientiertes Ablaufmodell. Ein komplexes Regelwerk bestimmt Bedingungen für die zeitlichen und logischen Abhängigkeiten der Blöcke, deren Anordnung durch den Ausführungsprozeß gebildet wird. Die Modellierung der Therapieausführung steht zunächst vor der grundsätzlichen Frage, inwieweit die traditionelle Sichtweise für eine interne Repräsentation geeignet ist. Das übergeordnete Ziel besteht in der Integration der unterschiedlichen Ebenen der Therapiespezifikation. Dazu gehört nicht nur die strukturelle Komponente, sondern vorallem die Ablaufkomponente. Ein geeignetes Regelmodell ist erforderlich, welches den spezifischen Bedürfnissen der Therapieüberwachung gerecht wird. Die zentrale Aufgabe besteht darin, diese unterschiedlichen Ebenen zusammenzuführen. Eine sinnvolle Alternative zur traditionellen Sichtweise liefert das zustandsorientierte Modell des Therapieausführungsprozesses. Das zustandsorientierte Modell beruht auf der Sichtweise, daß der gesamte Therapieausführungsprozeß letztendlich eine lineare Folge von Zuständen beschreibt, wobei jeder Zustandsübergang durch ein Ereignis eingeleitet wird, an bestimmte Bedingungen geknüpft ist und bestimmte Aktionen auslösen kann. Die Parallelität des blockorientierten Modells tritt in den Hintergrund, denn die Menge der durchzuführenden Maßnahmen sind lediglich Eigenschaften der Zustände und keine strukturellen Elemente der Ablaufspezifikation. Zu jedem Zeitpunkt ist genau ein Zustand aktiv, und er repräsentiert eine von endlich vielen klinischen Situationen, mit all ihren spezifischen Aktivitäten und Ausführungsregeln. Die Vorteile des zustandsorientierten Modells liegen in der Integration. Die Grundstruktur verbindet die statische Darstellung der möglichen Phasenanordnungen mit der dynamischen Ausführung aktiver Regeln. Die ursprünglichen Inhalte des blockorientierten Modells werden als gewöhnliche Eigenschaften der Zustände reproduziert und stellen damit nur einen Spezialfall der zustandsbezogenen Sicht dar.Weitere Möglichkeiten für die Anreicherung der Zustände mit zusätzlichen Details sind denkbar wie sinnvoll. Die Grundstruktur bleibt bei jeder Erweiterung jedoch die gleiche. Es ergibt sich ein wiederverwendbares Grundgerüst,ein gemeinsamer Nenner für die Erfüllung der Überwachungsaufgabe.