Forecasting models of retail rents

The authors model retail rents in the United Kingdom with use of vector-autoregressive and time-series models. Two retail rent series are used, compiled by LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker, and the emphasis is on forecasting. The results suggest that the use of the vector-autoregression and time-series models in this paper can pick up important features of the data that are useful for forecasting purposes. The relative forecasting performance of the models appears to be subject to the length of the forecast time-horizon. The results also show that the variables which were appropriate for inclusion in the vector-autoregression systems differ between the two rent series, suggesting that the structure of optimal models for predicting retail rents could be specific to the rent index used. Ex ante forecasts from our time-series suggest that both LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker real retail rents will exhibit an annual growth rate above their long-term mean.

Making electronics more accessible to people with learning disabilities

We extended 'littleBits' electronic components by attaching them to a larger base that was designed to help make them easier to pick up and handle, and easier to assemble into circuits for people with learning disabilities. A pilot study with a group of students with learning disabilities was very positive. There were fewer difficulties in assembling the components into circuits, and problems such as attempting to connect them the wrong way round or the wrong way up were eliminated completely.

An Experimental Study of Submerged Entry Nozzles (SEN) Focusing on Decarburization and Clogging

The submerged entry nozzle (SEN) is used to transport the molten steel from a tundish to a mould. The main purpose of its usage is to prevent oxygen and nitrogen pick-up by molten steel from the gas. Furthermore, to achieve the desired flow conditions in the mould. Therefore, the SEN can be considered as a vital factor for a stable casting process and the steel quality. In addition, the steelmaking processes occur at high temperatures around 1873 K, so the interaction between the refractory materials of the SEN and molten steel is unavoidable. Therefore, the knowledge of the SEN behaviors during preheating and casting processes is necessary for the design of the steelmaking processes  The internal surfaces of modern SENs are coated with a glass/silicon powder layer to prevent the SEN graphite oxidation during preheating. The effects of the interaction between the coating layer and the SEN base refractory materials on clogging were studied. A large number of accretion samples formed inside alumina-graphite clogged SENs were examined using FEG-SEM-EDS and Feature analysis. The internal coated SENs were used for continuous casting of stainless steel grades alloyed with Rare Earth Metals (REM). The post-mortem study results clearly revealed the formation of a multi-layer accretion. A harmful effect of the SENs decarburization on the accretion thickness was also indicated. In addition, the results indicated a penetration of the formed alkaline-rich glaze into the alumina-graphite base refractory. More specifically, the alkaline-rich glaze reacts with graphite to form a carbon monoxide gas. Thereafter, dissociation of CO at the interface between SEN and molten metal takes place. This leads to reoxidation of dissolved alloying elements such as REM (Rare Earth Metal). This reoxidation forms the “In Situ” REM oxides at the interface between the SEN and the REM alloyed molten steel. Also, the interaction of the penetrated glaze with alumina in the SEN base refractory materials leads to the formation of a high-viscous alumina-rich glaze during the SEN preheating process. This, in turn, creates a very uneven surface at the SEN internal surface. Furthermore, these uneven areas react with dissolved REM in molten steel to form REM aluminates, REM silicates and REM alumina-silicates. The formation of the large “in-situ” REM oxides and the reaction of the REM alloying elements with the previously mentioned SEN´s uneven areas may provide a large REM-rich surface in contact with the primary inclusions in molten steel. This may facilitate the attraction and agglomeration of the primary REM oxide inclusions on the SEN internal surface and thereafter the clogging. The study revealed the disadvantages of the glass/silicon powder coating applications and the SEN decarburization. The decarburization behaviors of Al2O3-C, ZrO2-C and MgO-C refractory materials from a commercial Submerged Entry Nozzle (SEN), were also investigated for different gas atmospheres consisting of CO2, O2 and Ar. The gas ratio values were kept the same as it is in a propane combustion flue gas at different Air-Fuel-Ratio (AFR) values for both Air-Fuel and Oxygen-Fuel combustion systems. Laboratory experiments were carried out under nonisothermal conditions followed by isothermal heating. The decarburization ratio (α) values of all three refractory types were determined by measuring the real time weight losses of the samples. The results showed the higher decarburization ratio (α) values increasing for MgO-C refractory when changing the Air-Fuel combustion to Oxygen-Fuel combustion at the same AFR value. It substantiates the SEN preheating advantage at higher temperatures for shorter holding times compared to heating at lower temperatures during longer holding times for Al2O3-C samples. Diffusion models were proposed for estimation of the decarburization rate of an Al2O3-C refractory in the SEN. Two different methods were studied to prevent the SEN decarburization during preheating: The effect of an ZrSi2 antioxidant and the coexistence of an antioxidant additive and a (4B2O3 ·BaO) glass powder on carbon oxidation for non-isothermal and isothermal heating conditions in a controlled atmosphere. The coexistence of 8 wt% ZrSi2 and 15 wt% (4B2O3 ·BaO) glass powder of the total alumina-graphite refractory base materials, presented the most effective resistance to carbon oxidation. The 121% volume expansion due to the Zircon formation during heating and filling up the open pores by a (4B2O3 ·BaO) glaze during the green body sintering led to an excellent carbon oxidation resistance. The effects of the plasma spray-PVD coating of the Yttria Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) powder on the carbon oxidation of the Al2O3-C coated samples were investigated. Trials were performed at non-isothermal heating conditions in a controlled atmosphere. Also, the applied temperature profile for the laboratory trials were defined based on the industrial preheating trials. The controlled atmospheres consisted of CO2, O2 and Ar. The thicknesses of the decarburized layers were measured and examined using light optic microscopy, FEG-SEM and EDS. A 250-290 μm YSZ coating is suggested to be an appropriate coating, as it provides both an even surface as well as prevention of the decarburization even during heating in air. In addition, the interactions between the YSZ coated alumina-graphite refractory base materials in contact with a cerium alloyed molten stainless steel were surveyed. The YSZ coating provided a total prevention of the alumina reduction by cerium. Therefore, the prevention of the first clogging product formed on the surface of the SEN refractory base materials. Therefore, the YSZ plasma-PVD coating can be recommended for coating of the hot surface of the commercial SENs.

Esporos de Clostridium botulinum em mel comercializado no Estado de São Paulo e em outros Estados brasileiros

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Laparoscopic ovum collection in sheep: Gross and microscopic evaluation of the ovary and influence on ooctye production

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

As ações de controle da tuberculose na atenção primária à saúde: a visão do doente

Tuberculosis is a disease of great impact on the world context today. In Brazil, the disease management was directed to the Primary Health Care, due to the determination of the Ministry of Health to decentralize health actions for primary care. Thus, since the actions of diagnosis, treatment and control of the disease should happen in this context, however, there are still many barriers that may hinder the realization of these determinations. This study aims to analyze the development of tuberculosis control activities conducted in the services of primary health care from the patient's vision. This is a descriptive, cross-sectional and quantitative study. The population consists of 517 tuberculosis patients treated in units of Primary Health Care in the city of Natal-RN; the sample consists of 93 TB patients. The collect instrument is structured, based in The Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCAT), validated in Brazil and adapted to assess attention to TB in Brazil, with modifications. This instrument was divided into blocks: the first one describes the socio-demographic information of patients with TB and the second one describes the health services working in control, diagnosis and treatment of TB, and includes issues related to the dimensions of primary care: access, bond, services, coordination of care, guidance to the community and family focus. For quantitative analysis, were built indicators for each item of the instrument. The response patterns are followed according to the Likert scale, which was assigned a value between one and five meant that the degree of preference relation (or agreement) of the statements. Values between 1 and 3 were considered unsatisfactory for the indicator, between 3 and less than 4, regular, and between 4 and 5, satisfactory. The results indicate that 62.37% of patients are male, 27.96% aged 41 to 50 years old, and 34.41% unemployed, with low education and low family income. It was found that the reference hospital services are the front door to the patient (59.14%), and are also the local diagnosis of the disease (72.04%). On access, the conditions satisfactory found are: the number of times the patients need to pick up the health care issue, the marking and the facility to get a consultancy in the HS, assistance provided without harm to the individual's attendance labor and facilities related to the proximity between the residence and services; were considered unsatisfactory conditions related to travel to the HS, and on hours and days of operation of services. As for the cast of services were satisfactory and regular actions related to the request for examination to become viable in the first HS, the availability of pot to perform smear and medicines for the treatment, as well as consultations control and receiving information about the disease and the treatment performed; it is considered unsatisfactory the performance of the home care for patients with TB by the HS that acts as a front door, for implementation of the Directly Observed Treatment (DOT), home visits during treatment, the provision of transportation allowance to the patient and the existence of groups for TB patients. Regarding the coordination of care, resulted in regular the action of referring the patient to other HS to obtain examinations, and as unsatisfactory referral to obtain medications. The relationship bond between patient and health team were considered satisfactory in the majority or regular. As for the family and community focus, is satisfactory only the indicator relating to questions from professionals to the patient about the existence of respiratory symptoms in the family. It is considered that there is need for greater commitment from government entities to the incentives required to TB control, as well as the availability of necessary inputs and training of human resources working in the PHC in the ongoing quest to strengthen primary care, as a place of broader host needs to contact the user with the actions and health professionals. It is recommended the adoption of management mechanisms possible to expand the capacity of the health PHC, promoting the service delivery to the user and ensuring attention to population health.

Effect of recombinant bovine somatotropin (bST) on follicular population and on in vitro buffalo embryo production

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of bovine somatotropin (bST) on ovarian follicular population in buffalo heifers and its influence on oocyte quality, recovery rates and in vitro embryo production. We tested the hypothesis that bST treatment in buffalo females submitted to an ovum pick-up (OPU) program Would improve the number of follicles recruited, oocyte quality and in vitro embryo production. A total of 10 heifers were assigned into two treatment groups: group bST (n = 5; receiving 500 mg of bST in regular intervals) and control group (n = 5; without additional treatment). Both groups were subjected to OPU sessions twice a week (every 3 or 4 days), for a total of 10 sessions per female, although due to procedural problems, only the first five OPU sessions produced embryos. The number of follicles and the diameters were recorded at all OPU sessions. The harvested oocytes were counted and classified according to their quality as either A, B, C, D or E, with A and B considered good quality. Cleavage and blastocyst production rates were evaluated 2 and 7 days after in vitro fertilization, respectively. The bST treatment increased the total number of antral follicles (> 3 mm in diameter; 12.2 compared with 8.7: p, < 0.05) and of small antral follicles (< 5 mm; 9.1 compared with 6.5; p < 0.05) per OPU session. The bST also tended to increase the number of oocytes recovered per session (5.2 compared with 4.1; p = 0.07), and enhanced the percentage of good quality oocytes (48.8% compared with 40.6%; p = 0.07), bST showed no effect on cleavage and blastocyst production rates (p > 0.05). The significant effects of performing repeated OPU sessions were decreasing the follicular population (p < 0.001) as well as the number of follicles aspirated (p < 0.001), and oocytes recovered (p < 0.02). In conclusion, bST treatment improves the follicular population, demonstrating its possible application in buffalo donors submitted to OPU programs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Algoritmos genéticos: uso de lógica nebulosa e análise de convergência por cadeia de Markov

In this work, the Markov chain will be the tool used in the modeling and analysis of convergence of the genetic algorithm, both the standard version as for the other versions that allows the genetic algorithm. In addition, we intend to compare the performance of the standard version with the fuzzy version, believing that this version gives the genetic algorithm a great ability to find a global optimum, own the global optimization algorithms. The choice of this algorithm is due to the fact that it has become, over the past thirty yares, one of the more importan tool used to find a solution of de optimization problem. This choice is due to its effectiveness in finding a good quality solution to the problem, considering that the knowledge of a good quality solution becomes acceptable given that there may not be another algorithm able to get the optimal solution for many of these problems. However, this algorithm can be set, taking into account, that it is not only dependent on how the problem is represented as but also some of the operators are defined, to the standard version of this, when the parameters are kept fixed, to their versions with variables parameters. Therefore to achieve good performance with the aforementioned algorithm is necessary that it has an adequate criterion in the choice of its parameters, especially the rate of mutation and crossover rate or even the size of the population. It is important to remember that those implementations in which parameters are kept fixed throughout the execution, the modeling algorithm by Markov chain results in a homogeneous chain and when it allows the variation of parameters during the execution, the Markov chain that models becomes be non - homogeneous. Therefore, in an attempt to improve the algorithm performance, few studies have tried to make the setting of the parameters through strategies that capture the intrinsic characteristics of the problem. These characteristics are extracted from the present state of execution, in order to identify and preserve a pattern related to a solution of good quality and at the same time that standard discarding of low quality. Strategies for feature extraction can either use precise techniques as fuzzy techniques, in the latter case being made through a fuzzy controller. A Markov chain is used for modeling and convergence analysis of the algorithm, both in its standard version as for the other. In order to evaluate the performance of a non-homogeneous algorithm tests will be applied to compare the standard fuzzy algorithm with the genetic algorithm, and the rate of change adjusted by a fuzzy controller. To do so, pick up optimization problems whose number of solutions varies exponentially with the number of variables

Aspiration of equine oocytes from immature follicles after treatment with equine pituitary extract (EPE) alone or in combination with hCG

This study examined the effect of treating mares with equine pituitary extract (EPE) alone or in combination with hCG on the recovery rate of immature follicles by transvaginal follicular aspiration (ovum pick-up; OPU). Ten normally cycling crossbred mares aged 3-15 years and weighing 350-400 kg were subjected to each of three treatments in a random sequence with each exposure to a new treatment separated by a rest cycle during which a spontaneous ovulation occurred. The treatments were (1) superovulated with 25 mg EPE and treated with 2500 IU hCG, (2) superovulation with 25 mg EPE, and (3) control (no exogenous treatment). Treatments 7 days after spontaneous ovulation; and all the follicles > 10 mm were aspirated 24 h after the largest follicle achieved a diameter of 27-30 mm for control group, and most follicles reached 22-27 mm for the EPE alone treatment. To the group EPE+hCG, when the follicles reached 22-27 mm, hCG was administered, 24 h before OPU. Superovulation increased the number of follicles available for aspiration. The total number of follicles available for aspiration was 61 in the EPE/hCG group. 63 in the EPE group and 42 in the control. The proportion of follicles aspirated varied from 63.5% to 73.8%. Oocyte recovery rate ranged from 15.0% to 16.7% and the proportion of mares that yielded at least one oocyte was 70% (7/10) in the EPE/hCG, 60% (6/10) in the EPE alone and 50% (5/10) in control group. The EPE/hCG treatment had a higher proportion of follicles with expanded granulose cells (64.4%) than the control (3.3%: p < 0.05) and the EPE treatment (25.0%). The intervals from spontaneous ovulation to aspiration were similar for all treatments (11-12 days). However, superovulatory treatment significantly increased the aspiration to ovulation interval from 15 +/- 4 days for control to 27 +/- 15 days for EPE (p < 0.05) and to 23 +/- 13 days for EPE/hCG treatment with commensurate increases in the time between spontaneous ovulations. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Collection Rates and Morphology of Equine Oocytes Obtained from Immature Follicles after Treatment with Equine Pituitary Extract (EPE) and Human Chorionic Gonadotropin

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Accuracy of Impression Techniques for Impants. Part 2-Comparison of Splinting Techniques

Purpose: The aim of this study was to compare splinting techniques for impression copings of osseointegrated implants with different angulations.Materials and Methods: Replicas (N = 24) of a metal matrix (control) containing two implants at 90 degrees and 65 degrees in relation to the horizontal surface were obtained by using four impression techniques: Technique 1 (T1), direct technique with square copings without union in open trays; Technique 2 (T2), square copings splinted with dental floss and autopolymerizing acrylic resin; Technique 3 (T3), square copings splinted with dental floss and autopolymerizing acrylic resin, sectioned and splinted again with autopolymerizing acrylic resin; Technique 4 (T4), square copings splinted with prefabricated acrylic resin bar. The impression material was polyether. The replicas were individually scanned to capture the images, which were assessed in a graphic computation program. The program allowed the angulation between the bases of the replicas and the reading screws to be measured. The images of the replicas were compared with the matrix image (control), and the differences in angulations from the control image were calculated. The analysis of variance and the Tukey test for comparisons (p < 0.05) were used for statistical analysis.Results: All groups showed significant differences in the implant angulations in comparison with the control group (p < 0.05). Group T1 showed the highest difference (1.019 degrees) followed by groups T2 (0.747 degrees), T3 (0.516 degrees), and T4 (0.325 degrees), which showed the lowest angular alteration compared to the control group. There were significant differences between inclined and straight implants in all the groups, except in group T4.Conclusions: Based on the results, the splinting of pick-up impression copings is indicated for osseointegrated implant impressions. The square copings splinted with a prefabricated acrylic resin bar presented the best results among the pick-up impression techniques evaluated in this study.

Influence of Superovulatory Protocols on In Vitro Production of Nellore (Bos indicus) Embryos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Qualidade da colheita mecanizada de feijão (Phaseolus vulgaris) em dois sistemas de preparo do solo

Dentre as etapas de produção do feijoeiro a colheita é uma das mais importantes, porque pode interferir de maneira decisiva na qualidade e no custo de produção. Assim, objetivou-se avaliar a qualidade da operação da colheita mecanizada de feijão (Phaseolus vulgaris), cultivado sob preparo convencional e plantio direto. As variáveis analisadas foram: o nível de ruído emitido, calculado através de um medidor de pressão sonora; o desempenho operacional, sendo monitorado o consumo de combustível, a patinagem dos rodados e a velocidade de deslocamento do conjunto coletados em uma central digital (datalogger); e a operação de colheita quanto à matéria seca e densidade de palhada, e as perdas na colheita. A velocidade e os consumos horário e operacional apresentaram distribuição normal dos dados, enquanto que o nível de ruído apresentou distribuição assimétrica. As perdas na colheita mecanizada de feijão e a densidade de palhada apresentaram baixa variabilidade e distribuição normal. Assim, apenas o consumo horário e a produção de matéria seca de palhada apresentaram comportamento instável em relação ao controle estatístico de processo, enquanto os demais indicadores mostraram condições de manter a qualidade da operação de colheita tanto no preparo convencional de solo quanto no plantio direto.

Comparison of embryo yield and pregnancy rate between in vivo and in vitro methods in the same Nelore (Bos indicus) donor cows

To investigate why the preferred means to produce bovine embryos in Brazil has changed from in vivo to in vitro, we compared these two approaches in the same Nelore cows (n = 30) and assessed total embryo production and pregnancy rates. Without a specific schedule, all cows were subjected to ultrasound-guided ovum pick up (OPU)/in vitro production (IVP) and MOET, with intervals ranging from 15 to 45 d between procedures, respectively. To produce in vivo embryos, cows were superovulated and embryos were recovered nonsurgically from 1 to 3 times (1.4 +/- 0.6). whereas OPU/IVP was repeated from 1 to 5 times (3.2 +/- 1.2) in each donor cow during a 12-mo interval. Embryos obtained from both methods were transferred to crossbred heifers. on average. 25.6 +/- 15.3 immature oocytes were collected per OPU attempt. The average number of embryos produced by OPU/IVP (9.4 +/- 5.3) was higher (P < 0.05) than the MOET method (6.7 +/- 3.7). However, pregnancy rates were lower (P < 0.05) following transfer of IVP (33.5%) versus in vivo-derived embryos (41.5%) embryos. Embryonic losses between Days 30 and 60 and fetal sex ratio were similar (P > 0.05) between in vivo and in vitro-derived embryos. We concluded that in Nelore cows, with an interval of 15 d between OPU procedures, it was possible to produce more embryos and pregnancies compared to conventional MOET. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methodology for kariological study of Brazilian Palms

In the laboratory of cytogenetics of the DBAA-UNESP we are studying the karyotipe of some Brazilian Palms. To determine the best protocol, methods of seed germination, inhibition of mitosis, time to pick up the roots and staining were analyzed. The results shown that the seed germination in sphagnum is effective to achieve good roots. The best time to collect the root tips is between 11 to 12 AM., when there are more cell metaphases. The inhibition of mitosis cycle at metaphases may be effective both with 8-hydroxiquinoleine (0,03% -5 hours) or with cold water (0°C - 18-20 hours). The staining with Giemsa 2% showed the best chromosome figures in the metaphases. Now, to get good metaphases slides the method in use in the lab is: 1) seed germination in sphagnum at room temperature and high humidity; 2) The major roots are cut maintaining at least 5 cm, because this technic allows new emergence of roots, increasing the number of roots collected per germinated seed, that is very important in some species with poor germination rates; 3) To get the mitosis inhibition we are using cold water (0°C) treatment for 18-20 hours, following the standard protocols for conservation and hydrolysis; or enzyme digestion with pectinasecellulase 4) the staining procedures are made using Giemsa 2%. The Brazilian palms species studied and their respective chromosome number were: Aiphanes acanthophylla (2n=30), A. caryotaefolia (2n=30), Syagrus quinquifaria (2n=32), S. coronata (2n=32), S. romanzoffiana (2n=32), Euterpe edulis (2n=36), E. oleracea (2n=36), Copernicia prunifera (2n=36), Scheelea lauromuelleriana (2n=32) and Bactris gasipaes (2n=30).