Perfil genotípico de resistência do vírus Influenza A (H1N1) pandêmico aos inibidores da neuraminidase em pacientes procedentes da mesorregião de Belém no período de maio de 2009 a maio de 2012

O vírus Influenza é o responsável pela gripe, uma doença que ocasiona milhões de mortes e hospitalizações todos os anos. Nas infecções severas, especialmente em pessoas com risco para complicações, os antivirais tornam-se os principais meios para o manejo clínico, merecendo especial destaque os inibidores da neuraminidase (INAs). De fato, na pandemia de 2009 a Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) recomendou o uso do oseltamivir para o tratamento dos doentes. Porém, devido à evolução genética viral, surgiram cepas com mutações no gene codificador da neuraminidase (NA) responsáveis por substituições aminoacídicas que levam à resistência aos fármacos INAs. Assim, a OMS passou a recomendar a vigilância de resistência genotípica para os vírus Influenza. Este trabalho teve como objetivos verificar a ocorrência de mutações no gene codificador da NA dos vírus Influenza A (H1N1) pandêmico que possam estar relacionadas à resistência aos INAs em cepas circulantes na mesorregião metropolitana de Belém no período de maio de 2009 a maio de 2012 e analisar, através da modelagem de proteínas, as substituições aminoacídicas da NA que possam estar influenciando na conformação protéica. Durante o período de estudo, foram recebidas no Laboratório de Vírus Respiratórios 2619 amostras clínicas de pacientes que apresentavam sinais e sintomas de infecção respiratória aguda com até cinco dias de evolução. Para a detecção do genoma viral foi feita a extração do RNA viral, seguida de RT-PCR em tempo real utilizando marcadores específicos para Influenza A H1N1pdm, resultando em 744 (28,4%) positivas. Parte das amostras positivas foram então inoculadas em células MDCK. Para as amostras isoladas em cultura de células, foi feita uma nova extração do RNA viral seguida de uma RT-PCR e semi-nested (PCR) utilizando iniciadores específicos para o gene NA, e posterior análise em sequenciador automático ABI Prism 3130xl (Applied Biosystems). A modelagem molecular da NA foi realizada através dos softwares SWISS-MODEL, MODELLER 9.10, PROCHECK, VERIFY3D e PYMOL. A análise parcial das sequências da neuraminidase nas amostras sequenciadas mostrou que não houve a circulação de cepas de vírus H1N1pdm com a mutação H275Y, a principal envolvida na resistência ao oseltamivir. Porém, em duas amostras foi identificada a substituição D199N que já foi relatada em vários estudos mostrando uma possível associação com o aumento da resistência ao oseltamivir. As amostras de 2012 apresentaram duas substituições (V241I e N369K) que estão relacionadas com um possível papel na compensação dos efeitos negativos causados pela mutação H275Y. A modelagem molecular mostrou que na mutação D199N houve uma alteração na estrutura da proteína NA próxima ao sítio de ligação ao antiviral. A análise filogenética revelou que as amostras de 2012 formaram um cluster isolado, demonstrando uma variação muito mais temporal do que geográfica. Este representa o primeiro estudo de resistência dos vírus Influenza H1N1pdm na mesorregião metropolitana de Belém, representando um importante instrumento para que os profissionais de saúde adotem estratégias mais eficazes no manejo da doença e no desenvolvimento de novos fármacos anti-influenza.

Carbon isotope fractionation during calcium carbonate precipitation induced by urease-catalysed hydrolysis of urea

Stable carbon isotopic fractionation during calcium carbonate precipitation induced by urease-catalysed hydrolysis of urea was experimentally investigated in artificial water at a constant temperature of 30 degrees C. Carbon isotope fractionation during urea hydrolysis follows a Rayleigh distillation trend characterized by a C-13-enrichment factor of -20 to -22 parts per thousand. CaCO3 precipitate is up to 17.9 parts per thousand C-13-depleted relative to the urea substrate (-48.9 +/- 0.07 parts per thousand). Initial CaCO3 precipitate forms close to isotopic equilibrium with dissolved inorganic carbon. Subsequent precipitation occurs at -2 to -3 parts per thousand offset from isotopic equilibrium, suggesting that the initial delta C-13 value of CaCO3 is reset through dissolution followed by reprecipitation with urease molecules playing a role in offsetting the delta C-13 value of CaCO3 from isotopic equilibrium. Potentially, this isotopic systematics may provide a tool for the diagnosis of ureolytically-formed carbonate cements used as sealing agent. Moreover, it may serve as a basis to develop a carbon isotope tool for the quantification of ureolytically-induced CO2 sequestration. Finally, it suggests carbon isotope disequilibrium as a hallmark of past enzymatic activity in ancient microbial carbonate formation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

La fiscalità delle perdite dei gruppi transfrontalieri: tra regimi nazionali e libertà di stabilimento

Caratteristica comune ai regimi di consolidamento previsti dai diversi ordinamenti, è quella di consentire la compensazione tra utili e perdite di società residenti, e, di negare, o rendere particolarmente difficoltosa, la stessa compensazione, quando le perdite sono maturate da società non residenti. La non considerazione delle perdite comporta una tassazione al lordo del gruppo multinazionale, per mezzo della quale, non si colpisce il reddito effettivo dei soggetti che vi appartengono. L’effetto immediato è quello di disincentivare i gruppi a travalicare i confini nazionali. Ciò impedisce il funzionamento del Mercato unico, a scapito della libertà di stabilimento prevista dagli artt. 49-54 del TFUE. Le previsioni ivi contenute sono infatti dirette, oltre ad assicurare a società straniere il beneficio della disciplina dello Stato membro ospitante, a proibire altresì allo Stato di origine di ostacolare lo stabilimento in un altro Stato membro dei propri cittadini o delle società costituite conformemente alla propria legislazione. Gli Stati membri giustificano la discriminazione tra società residenti e non residenti alla luce della riserva di competenza tributaria ad essi riconosciuta dall’ordinamento europeo in materia delle imposte dirette, dunque, in base all’equilibrata ripartizione del potere impositivo. In assenza di qualsiasi riferimento normativo, va ascritto alla Corte di Giustizia il ruolo di interprete del diritto europeo. La Suprema Corte, con una serie di importanti pronunce, ha infatti sindacato la compatibilità con il diritto comunitario dei vari regimi interni che negano la compensazione transfrontaliera delle perdite. Nel verificare la compatibilità con il diritto comunitario di tali discipline, la Corte ha tentato di raggiungere un (difficile) equilibrio tra due interessi completamenti contrapposti: quello comunitario, riconducibile al rispetto della libertà di stabilimento, quello degli Stati membri, che rivendicano il diritto di esercitare il proprio potere impositivo.

The Permanent Income Hypothesis: A Test on Czech Privatisation

Since the late eighties, economists have been regarding the transition from command to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe with intense interest. In addition to studying the transition per se, they have begun using the region as a testing ground on which to investigate the validity of certain classic economic propositions. In his research, comprising three articles written in English and totalling 40 pages, Mr. Hanousek uses the so-called "Czech national experiment" (voucher privatisation scheme) to test the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). He took as his inspiration Kreinin's recommendation: "Since data concerning the behaviour of windfall income recipients is relatively scanty, and since such data can constitute an important test of the permanent income hypothesis, it is of interest to bring to bear on the hypothesis whatever information is available". Mr. Hanousek argues that, since the transfer of property to Czech citizens from 1992 to 1994 through the voucher scheme was not anticipated, it can be regarded as windfall income. The average size of the windfall was more than three month's salary and over 60 percent of the Czech population received this unexpected income. Furthermore, there are other reasons for conducting such an analysis in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the privatisation process took place quickly. Secondly, both the economy and consumer behaviour have been very stable. Thirdly, out of a total population of 10 million Czech citizens, an astonishing 6 million, that is, virtually every household, participated in the scheme. Thus Czech voucher privatisation provides a sample for testing the PIH almost equivalent to a full population, thus avoiding problems with the distribution of windfalls. Compare this, for instance with the fact that only 4% of the Israeli urban population received personal restitution from Germany, while the number of veterans who received the National Service Life Insurance Dividends amounted to less than 9% of the US population and were concentrated in certain age groups. But to begin with, Mr. Hanousek considers the question of whether the public percieves the transfer from the state to individual as an increase in net wealth. It can be argued that the state is only divesting itself of assets that would otherwise provide a future source of transfers. According to this argument, assigning these assets to individuals creates an offsetting change in the present value of potential future transfers so that individuals are no better off after the transfer. Mr. Hanousek disagrees with this approach. He points out that a change in the ownership of inefficient state-owned enterprises should lead to higher efficiency, which alone increases the value of enterprises and creates a windfall increase in citizens' portfolios. More importantly, the state and individuals had very different preferences during the transition. Despite government propaganda, it is doubtful that citizens of former communist countries viewed government-owned enterprises as being operated in the citizens' best interest. Moreover, it is unlikely that the public fully comprehended the sophisticated links between the state budget, state-owned enterprises, and transfers to individuals. Finally, the transfers were not equal across the population. Mr. Hanousek conducted a survey on 1263 individuals, dividing them into four monthly earnings categories. After determining whether the respondent had participated in the voucher process, he asked those who had how much of what they received from voucher privatisation had been (a) spent on goods and services, (b) invested elsewhere, (c) transferred to newly emerging pension funds, (d) given to a family member, and (e) retained in their original form as an investment. Both the mean and the variance of the windfall rise with income. He obtained similar results with respect to education, where the mean (median) windfall for those with a basic school education was 13,600 Czech Crowns (CZK), a figure that increased to 15,000 CZK for those with a high school education without exams, 19,900 CZK for high school graduates with exams, and 24,600 CZK for university graduates. Mr. Hanousek concludes that it can be argued that higher income (and better educated) groups allocated their vouchers or timed the disposition of their shares better. He turns next to an analysis of how respondents reported using their windfalls. The key result is that only a relatively small number of individuals reported spending on goods. Overall, the results provide strong support for the permanent income hypothesis, the only apparent deviation being the fact that both men and women aged 26 to 35 apparently consume more than they should if the windfall were annuitised. This finding is still fully consistent with the PIH, however, if this group is at a stage in their life-cycle where, without the windfall, they would be borrowing to finance consumption associated with family formation etc. Indeed, the PIH predicts that individuals who would otherwise borrow to finance consumption would consume the windfall up to the level equal to the annuitised fraction of the increase in lifetime income plus the full amount of the previously planned borrowing for consumption. Greater consumption would then be financed, not from investing the windfall, but from avoidance of future repayment obligations for debts that would have been incurred without the windfall.

Economic sustainability of the Flambeau Mine Ladysmith, Wisconsin

Today sustainable development is a very pertinent issue. Communities do not want companies, specifically mining companies, to deplete a natural resource and leave. The goal is to minimize the negative impacts of mining and the boom/bust cycles of natural resource extraction. In this study a three part framework was developed to analyze the sustainability of the Flambeau Mine in Ladysmith, Wisconsin. The first and second part dealt with an in-depth local and regional analysis and whether the community was developing within its own vision. The third part used nine sustainability measures including: 1. Need Present Generation 2. Future Need 3. Acceptable Legacy 4. Full-Cost 5. Contribution to Economic Development 6. Equity 7. Consent 8. Respect for Ecological Limits, Maintenance of Ecological Integrity and Landscape Requirements 9. Offsetting Restoration This study concluded that the Flambeau Mine was sustainable relative to the first two criteria and that it can be considered mostly sustainable relative to the nine criteria. Overall it can be stated that the Flambeau Mine was a beneficial project to the Ladysmith Wisconsin area. Additionally it appeared to decrease the public’s negative perception of mining. Recommendations for future analytical work are made. Suggestions are made as to how mining companies could increase the potential for the attainment of sustainability in projects. It is recommended that this framework be used by other industries.

A Bargaining Model of Holdouts and Takings

The holdout problem is commonly cited as the justification for eminent domain, but the nature of the problem is not well understood. This paper models the holdout problem in a bargaining framework, where a developer seeks to acquire several parcels of land for a large-scale development. We show that in the absence of eminent domain, holdouts are inevitable, threatening costly delay. However, if the developer has the power to use eminent domain to acquire the land from holdouts, all sellers will bargain, thus avoiding delay. An offsetting cost is that owners may negotiate prices below their true value, possibly resulting in excessive transfer of land to the developer.

Surface water properties, phytoplankton composition and photosynthesis rates of Amundsen Sea sites

The phytoplankton community composition and productivity in waters of the Amundsen Sea and surrounding sea ice zone were characterized with respect to iron (Fe) input from melting glaciers. High Fe input from glaciers such as the Pine Island Glacier, and the Dotson and Crosson ice shelves resulted in dense phytoplankton blooms in surface waters of Pine Island Bay, Pine Island Polynya, and Amundsen Polynya. Phytoplankton biomass distribution was the opposite of the distribution of dissolved Fe (DFe), confirming the uptake of glacial DFe in surface waters by phytoplankton. Phytoplankton biomass in the polynyas ranged from 0.6 to 14 µg Chl a / L, with lower biomass at glacier sites where strong upwelling of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water from beneath glacier tongues was observed. Phytoplankton blooms in the polynyas were dominated by the haptophyte Phaeocystis antarctica, whereas the phytoplankton community in the sea ice zone was a mix of P. antarctica and diatoms, resembling the species distribution in the Ross Sea. Water column productivity based on photosynthesis versus irradiance characteristics averaged 3.00 g C /m**2/d in polynya sites, which was approximately twice as high as in the sea ice zone. The highest water column productivity was observed in the Pine Island Polynya, where both thermally and salinity stratified waters resulted in a shallow surface mixed layer with high phytoplankton biomass. In contrast, new production based on NO3 uptake was similar between different polynya sites, where a deeper UML in the weakly, thermally stratified Pine Island Bay resulted in deeper NO3 removal, thereby offsetting the lower productivity at the surface. These are the first in situ observations that confirm satellite observations of high phytoplankton biomass and productivity in the Amundsen Sea. Moreover, the high phytoplankton productivity as a result of glacial input of DFe is the first evidence that melting glaciers have the potential to increase phytoplankton productivity and thereby CO2 uptake, resulting in a small negative feedback to anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Spatially explicit methane inventory for Switzerland with 500 m x 500 m resolution for 2011 (NetCDF 25 MB)

We present the first high-resolution (500 m × 500 m) gridded methane (CH4) emission inventory for Switzerland, which integrates the national emission totals reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and recent CH4 flux studies conducted by research groups across Switzerland. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, we also include natural and semi-natural CH4 fluxes, i.e., emissions from lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, wild animals as well as uptake by forest soils. National CH4 emissions were disaggregated using detailed geostatistical information on source locations and their spatial extent and process- or area-specific emission factors. In Switzerland, the highest CH4 emissions in 2011 originated from the agricultural sector (150 Gg CH4/yr), mainly produced by ruminants and manure management, followed by emissions from waste management (15 Gg CH4/yr) mainly from landfills and the energy sector (12 Gg CH4/yr), which was dominated by emissions from natural gas distribution. Compared to the anthropogenic sources, emissions from natural and semi-natural sources were relatively small (6 Gg CH4/yr), making up only 3 % of the total emissions in Switzerland. CH4 fluxes from agricultural soils were estimated to be not significantly different from zero (between -1.5 and 0 Gg CH4/yr), while forest soils are a CH4 sink (approx. -2.8 Gg CH4/yr), partially offsetting other natural emissions. Estimates of uncertainties are provided for the different sources, including an estimate of spatial disaggregation errors deduced from a comparison with a global (EDGAR v4.2) and a European CH4 inventory (TNO/MACC). This new spatially-explicit emission inventory for Switzerland will provide valuable input for regional scale atmospheric modeling and inverse source estimation.

Geochemistry of boninite and harzburgite of ODP Leg 125 basement samples

Holes drilled into the volcanic and ultrabasic basement of the Izu-Ogasawara and Mariana forearc terranes during Leg 125 provide data on some of the earliest lithosphere created after the start of Eocene subduction in the Western Pacific. The volcanic basement contains three boninite series and one tholeiite series. (1) Eocene low-Ca boninite and low-Ca bronzite andesite pillow lavas and dikes dominate the lowermost part of the deep crustal section through the outer-arc high at Site 786. (2) Eocene intermediate-Ca boninite and its fractionation products (bronzite andesite, andesite, dacite, and rhyolite) make up the main part of the boninitic edifice at Site 786. (3) Early Oligocene intermediate-Ca to high-Ca boninite sills or dikes intrude the edifice and perhaps feed an uppermost breccia unit at Site 786. (4) Eocene or Early Oligocene tholeiitic andesite, dacite, and rhyolite form the uppermost part of the outer-arc high at Site 782. All four groups can be explained by remelting above a subduction zone of oceanic mantle lithosphere that has been depleted by its previous episode of partial melting at an ocean ridge. We estimate that the average boninite source had lost 10-15 wt% of melt at the ridge before undergoing further melting (5-10%) shortly after subduction started. The composition of the harzburgite (<2% clinopyroxene, Fo content of about 92%) indicates that it underwent a total of about 25% melting with respect to a fertile MORB mantle. The low concentration of Nb in the boninite indicates that the oceanic lithosphere prior to subduction was not enriched by any asthenospheric (OIB) component. The subduction component is characterized by (1) high Zr and Hf contents relative to Sm, Ti, Y, and middle-heavy REE, (2) light REE-enrichment, (3) low contents of Nb and Ta relative to Th, Rb, or La, (4) high contents of Na and Al, and (5) Pb isotopes on the Northern Hemisphere Reference Line. This component is unlike any subduction component from active arc volcanoes in the Izu-Mariana region or elsewhere. Modeling suggests that these characteristics fit a trondhjemitic melt from slab fusion in amphibolite facies. The resulting metasomatized mantle may have contained about 0.15 wt% water. The overall melting regime is constrained by experimental data to shallow depths and high temperatures (1250? C and 1.5 kb for an average boninite) of boninite segregation. We thus envisage that boninites were generated by decompression melting of a diapir of metasomatized residual MORB mantle leaving the harzburgites as the uppermost, most depleted residue from this second stage of melting. Thermal constraints require that both subducted lithosphere and overlying oceanic lithosphere of the mantle wedge be very young at the time of boninite genesis. This conclusion is consistent with models in which an active transform fault offsetting two ridge axes is placed under compression or transpression following the Eocene plate reorganization in the Pacific. Comparison between Leg 125 boninites and boninites and related rocks elsewhere in the Western Pacific highlights large regional differences in petrogenesis in terms of mantle mineralogy, degree of partial melting, composition of subduction components, and the nature of pre-subduction lithosphere. It is likely that, on a regional scale, the initiation of subduction involved subducted crust and lithospheric mantle wedge of a range of ages and compositions, as might be expected in this type of tectonic setting.

Relative sensitivity of soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna to increased CO2 and experimental stress

We used a controlled CO2 perturbation experiment to test hypotheses about changes in diversity, composition and structure of soft-bottom intertidal macrobenthic assemblages, under realistic and locally relevant scenarios of seawater acidification. Patches of undisturbed sediment were collected from 2 types of intertidal sedimentary habitat in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (South Portugal) and exposed to 2 levels of seawater acidification (pH reduced by 0.3 and 0.6 units) and 1 unmanipulated (control) level. After 75 d the assemblages differed significantly between the 2 types of sediment and between field controls and the ex situ treatments, but not among the 3 pH levels tested. The naturally high values of total alkalinity buffered seawater from the changes imposed on carbonate chemistry and may have contributed to offsetting acidification at the local scale. Observed differences on biota were strongly related to the organic matter content and grain-size of the sediments, particularly to the fractions of medium and coarse sand. Soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna was significantly affected by the stress of being held in an artificial environment, but not by CO2-induced seawater acidification. Given the previously observed variations in the sensitivities of marine organisms to seawater acidification, direct extrapolations of the present findings to different regions or other types of assemblages do not seem advisable. However, the contribution of ex situ studies to the assessment of ecosystem-level responses to environmental disturbances could generally be improved by incorporating adequate field controls in the experimental design.

Implications of agricultural production, policy and land use changes on water resource assessment

Una gestión más eficiente y equitativa del agua a escala de cuenca no se puede centrar exclusivamente en el recurso hídrico en sí, sino también en otras políticas y disciplinas científicas. Existe un consenso creciente de que, además de la consideración de las cambiantes condiciones climáticas, es necesaria una integración de ámbitos de investigación tales como la agronomía, planificación del territorio y ciencias políticas y económicas a fin de satisfacer de manera sostenible las demandas de agua por parte de la sociedad y del medio natural. La Política Agrícola Común (PAC) es el principal motor de cambio en las tendencias de paisajes rurales y sistemas agrícolas, pero el deterioro del medio ambiente es ahora una de las principales preocupaciones. Uno de los cambios más relevantes se ha producido con la expansión e intensificación del olivar en España, principalmente con nuevas zonas de regadío o la conversión de olivares de secano a sistemas en regadío. Por otra parte, el cambio de las condiciones climáticas podría ejercer un papel importante en las tendencias negativas de las aportaciones a los ríos, pero no queda claro el papel que podrían estar jugando los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas de caudal observadas. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo mejorar el conocimiento de los efectos de la producción agrícola, política agraria y cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las condiciones de calidad del agua, respuesta hidrológica y apropiación del agua por parte de la sociedad. En primer lugar, el estudio determina las tendencias existentes de nitratos y sólidos en suspensión en las aguas superficiales de la cuenca del río Guadalquivir durante el periodo de 1998 a 2009. Desde una perspectiva de política agraria, la investigación trata de evaluar mediante un análisis de datos de panel las principales variables, incluyendo la reforma de la PAC de 2003, que están teniendo una influencia en ambos indicadores de calidad. En segundo lugar, la apropiación del agua y el nivel de contaminación por nitratos debido a la producción del aceite de oliva en España se determinan con una evaluación de la huella hídrica (HH), teniendo en cuenta una variabilidad espacial y temporal a largo de las provincias españolas y entre 1997 y 2008. Por último, la tesis analiza los efectos de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas observadas en la zona alta del Turia, cabecera de la cuenca del río Júcar, durante el periodo 1973-2008 mediante una modelización ecohidrológica. En la cuenca del Guadalquivir cerca del 20% de las estaciones de monitoreo muestran tendencias significativas, lineales o cuadráticas, para cada indicador de calidad de agua. La mayoría de las tendencias significativas en nitratos están aumentando, y la mayoría de tendencias cuadráticas muestran un patrón en forma de U. Los modelos de regresión de datos de panel muestran que las variables más importantes que empeoran ambos indicadores de calidad del agua son la intensificación de biomasa y las exportaciones de ambos indicadores de calidad procedentes de aguas arriba. En regiones en las que el abandono agrícola y/o desintensificación han tenido lugar han mejorado las condiciones de calidad del agua. Para los nitratos, el desacoplamiento de las subvenciones a la agricultura y la reducción de la cuantía de las subvenciones a tierras de regadío subyacen en la reducción observada de la concentración de nitratos. Las medidas de modernización de regadíos y el establecimiento de zonas vulnerables a nitratos reducen la concentración en subcuencas que muestran una tendencia creciente de nitratos. Sin embargo, el efecto de las exportaciones de nitratos procedente de aguas arriba, la intensificación de la biomasa y los precios de los cultivos presentan un mayor peso, explicando la tendencia creciente observada de nitratos. Para los sólidos en suspensión, no queda de forma evidente si el proceso de desacoplamiento ha influido negativa o positivamente. Sin embargo, los mayores valores de las ayudas agrarias aún ligadas a la producción, en particular en zonas de regadío, conllevan un aumento de las tasas de erosión. Aunque la cuenca del Guadalquivir ha aumentado la producción agrícola y la eficiencia del uso del agua, el problema de las altas tasas de erosión aún no ha sido mitigado adecuadamente. El estudio de la huella hídrica (HH) revela que en 1 L de aceite de oliva español más del 99,5% de la HH está relacionado con la producción de la aceituna, mientras que menos del 0,5% se debe a otros componentes, es decir, a la botella, tapón y etiqueta. Durante el período estudiado, la HH verde en secano y en regadío representa alrededor del 72% y 12%, respectivamente, del total de la HH. Las HHs azul y gris representan 6% y 10%, respectivamente. La producción de aceitunas se concentra en regiones con una HH menor por unidad de producto. La producción de aceite de oliva ha aumentado su productividad del agua durante 1997-2008, incentivado por los crecientes precios del aceite, como también lo ha hecho la cantidad de exportaciones de agua virtual. De hecho, las mayores zonas productoras presentan una eficiencia alta del uso y de productividad del agua, así como un menor potencial de contaminación por nitratos. Pero en estas zonas se ve a la vez reflejado un aumento de presión sobre los recursos hídricos locales. El aumento de extracciones de agua subterránea relacionadas con las exportaciones de aceite de oliva podría añadir una mayor presión a la ya estresada cuenca del Guadalquivir, mostrando la necesidad de equilibrar las fuerzas del mercado con los recursos locales disponibles. Los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal juegan un papel importante en el balance del agua de la cuenca alta del Turia, pero no son el principal motor que sustenta la reducción observada de caudal. El aumento de la temperatura es el principal factor que explica las mayores tasas de evapotranspiración y la reducción de caudales. Sin embargo, los cambios de uso de suelo y el cambio climático han tenido un efecto compensatorio en la respuesta hidrológica. Por un lado, el caudal se ha visto afectado negativamente por el aumento de la temperatura, mientras que los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal han compensado positivamente con una reducción de las tasas de evapotranspiración, gracias a los procesos de disminución de la densidad de matorral y de degradación forestal. El estudio proporciona una visión que fortalece la interdisciplinariedad entre la planificación hidrológica y territorial, destacando la necesidad de incluir las implicaciones de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en futuros planes hidrológicos. Estos hallazgos son valiosos para la gestión de la cuenca del río Turia, y el enfoque empleado es útil para la determinación del peso de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en la respuesta hidrológica en otras regiones. ABSTRACT Achieving a more efficient and equitable water management at catchment scale does not only rely on the water resource itself, but also on other policies and scientific knowledge. There is a growing consensus that, in addition to consideration of changing climate conditions, integration with research areas such as agronomy, land use planning and economics and political science is required to meet sustainably the societal and environmental water demands. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a main driver for trends in rural landscapes and agricultural systems, but environmental deterioration is now a principal concern. One of the most relevant changes has occurred with the expansion and intensification of olive orchards in Spain, taking place mainly with new irrigated areas or with the conversion from rainfed to irrigated systems. Moreover, changing climate conditions might exert a major role on water yield trends, but it remains unclear the role that ongoing land use and land cover changes (LULCC) might have on observed river flow trends. This thesis aims to improve the understanding of the effects of agricultural production, policies and LULCC on water quality conditions, hydrological response and human water appropriation. Firstly, the study determines the existing trends for nitrates and suspended solids in the Guadalquivir river basin’s surface waters (south Spain) during the period from 1998 to 2009. From a policy perspective, the research tries to assess with panel data analysis the main drivers, including the 2003 CAP reform, which are having an influence on both water quality indicators. Secondly, water appropriation and nitrate pollution level originating from the production of olive oil in Spain is determined with a water footprint (WF) assessment, considering a spatial temporal variability across the Spanish provinces and from 1997 to 2008 years. Finally, the thesis analyzes the effects of the LULCC on the observed negative trends over the period 1973-2008 in the Upper Turia basin, headwaters of the Júcar river demarcation (east Spain), with ecohydrological modeling. In the Guadalquivir river basin about 20% of monitoring stations show significant trends, linear or quadratic, for each water quality indicator. Most significant trends of nitrates are augmenting than decreasing, and most significant quadratic terms of both indicators exhibit U-shaped patterns. The panel data models show that the most important drivers that are worsening nitrates and suspended solids in the basin are biomass intensification and exports of both water quality indicators from upland regions. In regions that agricultural abandonment and/or de-intensification have taken place the water quality conditions have improved. For nitrates, the decoupling of agricultural subsidies and the reduction of the amount of subsidies to irrigated land underlie the observed reduction of nitrates concentration. Measures of irrigation modernization and establishment of vulnerable zones to nitrates ameliorate the concentration of nitrates in subbasins showing an increasing trend. However, the effect of nitrates load from upland areas, intensification of biomass and crop prices present a greater weight leading to the final increasing trend in this subbasins group, where annual crops dominate. For suspended solids, there is no clear evidence that decoupling process have influenced negatively or positively. Nevertheless, greater values of subsidies still linked to production, particularly in irrigated regions, lead to increasing erosion rates. Although agricultural production has augmented in the basin and water efficiency in the agricultural sector has improved, the issue of high erosion rates has not yet been properly faced. The water footprint (WF) assessment reveals that for 1 L Spanish olive oil more than 99.5% of the WF is related to the olive fruit production, whereas less than 0.5% is due to other components i.e. bottle, cap and label. Over the studied period, the green WF in rainfed and irrigated systems represents about 72% and 12%, respectively, of the total WF. Blue and grey WFs represent 6% and 10%, respectively. The olive production is concentrated in regions with the smallest WF per unit of product. The olive oil production has increased its apparent water productivity from 1997 to 2008 incentivized by growing trade prices, but also did the amount of virtual water exports. In fact, the largest producing areas present high water use efficiency per product and apparent water productivity as well as less nitrates pollution potential, but this enhances the pressure on the available water resources. Increasing groundwater abstractions related to olive oil exports may add further pressure to the already stressed Guadalquivir basin. This shows the need to balance the market forces with the available local resources. Concerning the effects of LULCC on the Upper Turia basin’s streamflow, LULCC play a significant role on the water balance, but it is not the main driver underpinning the observed reduction on Turia's streamflow. Increasing mean temperature is the main factor supporting larger evapotranspiration rates and streamflow reduction. In fact, LULCC and climate change have had an offsetting effect on the streamflow generation during the study period. While streamflow has been negatively affected by increasing temperature, ongoing LULCC have positively compensated with reduced evapotranspiration rates, thanks to mainly shrubland clearing and forest degradation processes. The research provides insight for strengthening the interdisciplinarity between hydrological and spatial planning, highlighting the need to include the implications of LULCC in future hydrological plans. These findings are valuable for the management of the Turia river basin, as well as a useful approach for the determination of the weight of LULCC on the hydrological response in other regions.

Synergies and trade-offs between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation - a cross-national multifactor analysis

Peer reviewed

Global change synergies and trade-offs between renewable energy and biodiversity

Funded by Kone Foundation ERC-StG. Grant Number: 260393 Academy of Finland Centre of Excellence Programme 2012–2017

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Diversificação de espécies e da morfologia em serpentes da família Viperidae: padrões e processos

A diversidade de espécies e fenotípica pode variar consideravelmente entre grupos taxonômicos e ao longo do tempo em uma mesma linhagem. O estudo de tais variações tornou-se um dos principais objetivos da biologia evolutiva fornecendo informações importantes a respeito dos possíveis mecanismos que regulam a biodiversidade. Dessa forma, o objetivo geral da presente tese foi investigar os padrões da diversificação de espécies e da morfologia em um grupo cosmopolita de serpentes, a família Viperidae, e os potenciais processos subjacentes. Primeiramente, (1) reconstruímos as relações filogenéticas e estimamos os tempos de divergência entre as linhagens da família Viperidae utilizando uma abordagem Bayesiana. (2) Aplicando um método recentemente desenvolvido (BAMM), exploramos como as taxas de especiação e extinção variaram ao longo da radiação do grupo inferindo os possíveis processos reguladores. Por fim, (3) analisamos se a evolução do tamanho do corpo e as taxas de especiação variam nos diferentes habitats ocupados pelos viperídeos (terrestres vs arborícola). Nesta tese geramos a filogenia molecular de viperídeos mais completa até o momento utilizando sequências para 11 genes mitocondriais e nucleares abrangendo 79% das espécies viventes (264 terminais) e todos com exceção de um gênero. De maneira geral, foi possível obter relações filogenéticas robustas para o grupo com a maioria dos gêneros sendo monofilética. Os tempos de divergência obtidos indicam que os viperídeos começaram a diversificar em meados do Paleoceno tardio/meio do Eoceno inferindo idades um pouco mais tardias que o encontrado em estudos anteriores. Durante a radiação do grupo, um aumento nas taxas de especiação parece ter ocorrido durante a diversificação dos crotalíneos (pit vipers) em decorrência não só da evolução das fossetas loreais mas também como resultado de mudanças geológicas e climáticas na Ásia e da invasão do novo mundo. Após este rápido aumento inicial, as taxas de especiação desaceleraram em direção ao presente. Por fim, os resultados aqui apresentados indicam que apesar dos habitats arborícolas limitarem a evolução morfológica nos viperídeos, a evolução da arborealidade parece não afetar as taxas de especiação que permanecem similares entre linhagens arborícolas e terrestres. Isto sugere dois cenários: (1) a especiação acontece de forma independente das mudanças morfológicas nos viperídeos; ou (2) o isolamento geográfico seria um mecanismo importante na diversificação de linhagens arborícolas contrabalançando decréscimos nas oportunidades de especiação possivelmente relacionados às pressões seletivas impostas pelo ambiente arborícola. A presente tese contribui para entendermos mais sobre como evoluíram os viperídeos ao longo dos seus ∼50 milhões de anos. Além de propor cenários e hipóteses a serem futuramente explorados com os viperídeos, elaboramos uma discussão ampla e conceitual a respeito dos possíveis mecanismos por trás da diversificação de espécies e da morfologia que poderiam também ser contemplados para outros grupos de organismos. Portanto, a presente tese contribui não só para entendermos os mecanismos que geram e mantém a diversidade de serpentes, mas também para enriquecer a discussão dos mecanismos que geram e mantém a biodiversidade como um todo