Using Baseline Methods to Identify Non-technical Losses in the Context of Smart Grids

Demand response has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and smart grid environments. In addition to the importance that has been given to the development of business models for integrating demand response, several methods have been developed to evaluate the consumers’ performance after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper uses those performance evaluation methods, namely customer baseline load calculation methods, to determine the expected consumption in each period of the consumer historic data. In the cases in which there is a certain difference between the actual consumption and the estimated consumption, the consumer is identified as a potential cause of non-technical losses. A case study demonstrates the application of the proposed method to real consumption data.

Reallocation of resources between the tradable and non-tradable sector in Portugal: Assessing the degree of structural transformation in the Portuguese economy

Portugal implemented a large number of structural reforms in the recent years, which are expected to enhance the allocation of resources in the economy, namely from the non-tradable to tradable sector. We argue that the methodology to identify the tradable sector used by some international institutions is outdated and may hamper an accurate assessment of the progress achieved so far. Based on an enhanced methodology to identify the tradable sector, we are able to provide a more accurate, clearer picture of the recent structural developments of the Portuguese economy.

Creation of an Age-Adjusted, Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry-Derived Trabecular Bone Score Curve for the Lumbar Spine in Non-Hispanic US White Women.

The trabecular bone score (TBS, Med-Imaps, Pessac, France) is an index of bone microarchitecture texture extracted from anteroposterior dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry images of the spine. Previous studies have documented the ability of TBS of the spine to differentiate between women with and without fractures among age- and areal bone mineral density (aBMD)-matched controls, as well as to predict future fractures. In this cross-sectional analysis of data collected from 3 geographically dispersed facilities in the United States, we investigated age-related changes in the microarchitecture of lumbar vertebrae as assessed by TBS in a cohort of non-Hispanic US white American women. All subjects were 30 yr of age and older and had an L1-L4aBMDZ-score within ±2 SD of the population mean. Individuals were excluded if they had fractures, were on any osteoporosis treatment, or had any illness that would be expected to impact bone metabolism. All data were extracted from Prodigy dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry devices (GE-Lunar, Madison, WI). Cross-calibrations between the 3 participating centers were performed for TBS and aBMD. aBMD and TBS were evaluated for spine L1-L4 but also for all other possible vertebral combinations. To validate the cohort, a comparison between the aBMD normative data of our cohort and US non-Hispanic white Lunar data provided by the manufacturer was performed. A database of 619 non-Hispanic US white women, ages 30-90 yr, was created. aBMD normative data obtained from this cohort were not statistically different from the non-Hispanic US white Lunar normative data provided by the manufacturer (p = 0.30). This outcome thereby indirectly validates our cohort. TBS values at L1-L4 were weakly inversely correlated with body mass index (r = -0.17) and weight (r = -0.16) and not correlated with height. TBS values for all lumbar vertebral combinations decreased significantly with age. There was a linear decrease of 16.0% (-2.47 T-score) in TBS at L1-L4 between 45 and 90 yr of age (vs. -2.34 for aBMD). Microarchitectural loss rate increased after age 65 by 50% (-0.004 to -0.006). Similar results were obtained for other combinations of lumbar vertebra. TBS, an index of bone microarchitectural texture, decreases with advancing age in non-Hispanic US white women. Little change in TBS is observed between ages 30 and 45. Thereafter, a progressive decrease is observed with advancing age. The changes we observed in these American women are similar to that previously reported for a French population of white women (r(2) > 0.99). This reference database will facilitate the use of TBS to assess bone microarchitectural deterioration in clinical practice.

Localization of the mechanism of pH-dependent non- photochemical fluorescence quenching in thylakoid membranes

Higher plants have evolved a well-conserved set of photoprotective mechanisms, collectively designated Non-Photochemical Quenching of chlorophyll fluorescence (qN), to deal with the inhibitory absorption of excess light energy by the photosystems. Their main contribution originates from safe thermal deactivation of excited states promoted by a highly-energized thylakoid membrane, detected via lumen acidification. The precise origins of this energy- or LlpH-dependent quenching (qE), arising from either decreased energy transfer efficiency in PSII antennae (~ Young & Frank, 1996; Gilmore & Yamamoto, 1992; Ruban et aI., 1992), from alternative electron transfer pathways in PSII reaction centres (~ Schreiber & Neubauer, 1990; Thompson &Brudvig, 1988; Klimov et aI., 1977), or from both (Wagner et aI., 1996; Walters & Horton, 1993), are a source of considerable controversy. In this study, the origins of qE were investigated in spinach thylakoids using a combination of fluorescence spectroscopic techniques: Pulse Amplitude Modulated (PAM) fluorimetry, pump-probe fluorimetry for the measurement of PSII absorption crosssections, and picosecond fluorescence decay curves fit to a kinetic model for PSII. Quenching by qE (,..,600/0 of maximal fluorescence, Fm) was light-induced in circulating samples and the resulting pH gradient maintained during a dark delay by the lumenacidifying capabilities of thylakoid membrane H+ ATPases. Results for qE were compared to those for the addition of a known antenna quencher, 5-hydroxy-1,4naphthoquinone (5-0H-NQ), titrated to achieve the same degree of Fm quenching as for qE. Quenching of the minimal fluorescence yield, F0' was clear (8 to 130/0) during formation of qE, indicative of classical antenna quenching (Butler, 1984), although the degree was significantly less than that achieved by addition of 5-0H-NQ. Although qE induction resulted in an overall increase in absorption cross-section, unlike the decrease expected for antenna quenchers like the quinone, a larger increase in crosssection was observed when qE induction was attempted in thylakoids with collapsed pH gradients (uncoupled by nigericin), in the absence of xanthophyll cycle operation (inhibited by DTT), or in the absence of quenching (LlpH not maintained in the dark due to omission of ATP). Fluorescence decay curves exhibited a similar disparity between qE-quenched and 5-0H-NQ-quenched thylakoids, although both sets showed accelerated kinetics in the fastest decay components at both F0 and Fm. In addition, the kinetics of dark-adapted thylakoids were nearly identical to those in qEquenched samples at F0' both accelerated in comparison with thylakoids in which the redox poise of the Oxygen-Evolving Complex was randomized by exposure to low levels of background light (which allowed appropriate comparison with F0 yields from quenched samples). When modelled with the Reversible Radical Pair model for PSII (Schatz et aI., 1988), quinone quenching could be sufficiently described by increasing only the rate constant for decay in the antenna (as in Vasil'ev et aI., 1998), whereas modelling of data from qE-quenched thylakoids required changes in both the antenna rate constant and in rate constants for the reaction centre. The clear differences between qE and 5-0H-NQ quenching demonstrated that qE could not have its origins in the antenna alone, but is rather accompanied by reaction centre quenching. Defined mechanisms of reaction centre quenching are discussed, also in relation to the observed post-quenching depression in Fm associated with photoinhibition.

L'émergence d'un double régime de subventions dans le système GATT/OMC : analyse du clivage entre subventions agricoles et non agricoles

"Mémoire présenté à la Faculté des études supérieures en vue de l'obtention du grade de maîtrise en droit (LL.M) option recherche"

Toward a rational-choice foundation of non-additive theories

A classical argument of de Finetti holds that Rationality implies Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). In contrast, the Knightian distinction between Risk and Ambiguity suggests that a rational decision maker would obey the SEU paradigm when the information available is in some sense good, and would depart from it when the information available is not good. Unlike de Finetti's, however, this view does not rely on a formal argument. In this paper, we study the set of all information structures that might be availabe to a decision maker, and show that they are of two types: those compatible with SEU theory and those for which SEU theory must fail. We also show that the former correspond to "good" information, while the latter correspond to information that is not good. Thus, our results provide a formalization of the distinction between Risk and Ambiguity. As a consequence of our main theorem (Theorem 2, Section 8), behavior not-conforming to SEU theory is bound to emerge in the presence of Ambiguity. We give two examples of situations of Ambiguity. One concerns the uncertainty on the class of measure zero events, the other is a variation on Ellberg's three-color urn experiment. We also briefly link our results to two other strands of literature: the study of ambiguous events and the problem of unforeseen contingencies. We conclude the paper by re-considering de Finetti's argument in light of our findings.

Évolution de la gestion pharmacologique de la polyarthrite rhumatoïde et impact sur le risque de fracture ostéoporotique non vertébrale

Au cours des dernières années, le développement des connaissances au niveau de l’étiologie de la maladie ainsi que l’arrivée de nouveaux médicaments et de lignes directrices guidant la pratique clinique sont susceptibles d’avoir entraîné une meilleure gestion de la polyarthrite rhumatoïde (PAR) et de l’ostéoporose, une comorbidité fréquente chez ces patients. Dans cette thèse, trois questions de recherche sont étudiées à l’aide des banques de données administratives québécoises (RAMQ, MED-ÉCHO). Une première étude documente l’utilisation des médicaments pour la PAR au Québec. À ce jour, il s’agit de la seule étude canadienne à rapporter les tendances d’utilisation des DMARD (disease-modifying antirheumatic drug) biologiques depuis leur introduction dans la pratique clinique. Au cours de la période à l’étude (2002-2008), l’utilisation de DMARD (synthétiques et biologiques) a augmenté légèrement dans la population atteinte de PAR (1,9%, 95% CI : 1,1 - 2,8). Cependant, malgré la présence de recommandations cliniques soulignant l’importance de commencer un traitement rapidement, et la couverture de ces traitements par le régime général d’assurance médicaments, les résultats démontrent une initiation sous-optimale des DMARD chez les patients nouvellement diagnostiqués (probabilité d’initiation à 12 mois : 38,5%). L’initiation de DMARD était beaucoup plus fréquente lorsqu’un rhumatologue était impliqué dans la provision des soins (OR : 4,31, 95% CI : 3,73 - 4,97). Concernant les DMARD biologiques, le facteur le plus fortement associé avec leur initiation était l’année calendrier. Chez les sujets diagnostiqués en 2002, 1,2 sur 1 000 ont initié un DMARD biologique moins d’un an après leur diagnostic. Pour ceux qui ont été diagnostiqués en 2007, le taux était de 13 sur 1 000. Les résultats démontrent que si la gestion pharmacologique de la PAR s’est améliorée au cours de la période à l’étude, elle demeure tout de même sous-optimale. Assurer un meilleur accès aux rhumatologues pourrait, semble-t-il, être une stratégie efficace pour améliorer la qualité des soins chez les patients atteints de PAR. Dans une deuxième étude, l’association entre l’utilisation des DMARD biologiques et le risque de fractures ostéoporotiques non vertébrales chez des patients PAR âgés de 50 ans et plus a été rapportée. Puisque l’inflammation chronique résultant de la PAR interfère avec le remodelage osseux et que les DMARD biologiques, en plus de leur effet anti-inflammatoire et immunosuppresseur, sont des modulateurs de l’activité cellulaire des ostéoclastes et des ostéoblastes pouvant possiblement mener à la prévention des pertes de densité minérale osseuse (DMO), il était attendu que leur utilisation réduirait le risque de fracture. Une étude de cas-témoin intra-cohorte a été conduite. Bien qu’aucune réduction du risque de fracture suivant l’utilisation de DMARD biologiques n’ait pu être démontrée (OR : 1,03, 95% CI : 0,42 - 2,53), l’étude établit le taux d’incidence de fractures ostéoporotiques non vertébrales dans une population canadienne atteinte de PAR (11/1 000 personnes - années) et souligne le rôle d’importants facteurs de risque. La prévalence élevée de l’ostéoporose dans la population atteinte de PAR justifie que l’on accorde plus d’attention à la prévention des fractures. Finalement, une troisième étude explore l’impact de la dissémination massive, en 2002, des lignes directrices du traitement de l’ostéoporose au Canada sur la gestion pharmacologique de l’ostéoporose et sur les taux d’incidence de fractures ostéoporotiques non vertébrales chez une population de patients PAR âgés de 50 ans et plus entre 1998 et 2008. Étant donné la disponibilité des traitements efficaces pour l’ostéoporose depuis le milieu des années 1990 et l’évolution des lignes directrices de traitement, une réduction du taux de fractures était attendue. Quelques études canadiennes ont démontré une réduction des fractures suivant une utilisation étendue des médicaments contre l’ostéoporose et de l’ostéodensitométrie dans une population générale, mais aucune ne s’est attardée plus particulièrement sur une population adulte atteinte de PAR. Dans cette étude observationnelle utilisant une approche de série chronologique, aucune réduction du taux de fracture après 2002 (période suivant la dissémination des lignes directrices) n’a pu être démontrée. Cependant, l’utilisation des médicaments pour l’ostéoporose, le passage d’ostéodensitométrie, ainsi que la provision de soins pour l’ostéoporose en post-fracture ont augmenté. Cette étude démontre que malgré des années de disponibilité de traitements efficaces et d’investissement dans le développement et la promotion de lignes directrices de traitement, l’effet bénéfique au niveau de la réduction des fractures ne s’est toujours pas concrétisé dans la population atteinte de PAR, au cours de la période à l’étude. Ces travaux sont les premiers à examiner, à l’aide d’une banque de données administratives, des sujets atteints de PAR sur une période s’étalant sur 11 ans, permettant non seulement l’étude des changements de pratique clinique suivant l’apparition de nouveaux traitements ou bien de nouvelles lignes directrices, mais également de leur impact sur la santé. De plus, via l’étude des déterminants de traitement, les résultats offrent des pistes de solution afin de combler l’écart entre la pratique observée et les recommandations cliniques. Enfin, les résultats de ces études bonifient la littérature concernant la qualité des soins pharmacologiques chez les patients PAR et de la prévention des fractures.

Strategic management of non-point source pollution from sewage sludge

In the UK, the recycling of sewage sludge to land is expected to double by 2006 but the security of this route is threatened by environmental concerns and health scares. Strategic investment is needed to ensure sustainable and secure sludge recycling outlets. At present, the security of this landbank for sludge recycling is determined by legislation relating to nutrient rather than potentially toxic elements (PTEs) applications to land - especially the environmental risk linked to soil phosphorus (P) saturation. We believe that not all land has an equal risk of contributing nutrients derived from applications to land to receiving waters. We are currently investigating whether it is possible to minimise nutrient loss by applying sludge to land outside Critical Source Areas (CSAs) regardless of soil P Index status. Research is underway to develop a predictive and spatially-sensitive, semi-distributed model of critical thresholds for sludge application that goes beyond traditional 'end-of-pipe" or "edge-of-field" modelling, to include hydrological flow paths and delivery mechanisms to receiving waters from non-point sources at the catchment scale.

Effects of non-uniform crosswind fields on scintillometry measurements

The effects of a non-uniform wind field along the path of a scintillometer are investigated. Theoretical spectra are calculated for a range of scenarios where the crosswind varies in space or time and compared to the ‘ideal’ spectrum based on a constant uniform crosswind. It is verified that the refractive-index structure parameter relation with the scintillometer signal remains valid and invariant for both spatially and temporally-varying crosswinds. However, the spectral shape may change significantly preventing accurate estimation of the crosswind speed from the peak of the frequency spectrum and retrieval of the structure parameter from the plateau of the power spectrum. On comparison with experimental data, non-uniform crosswind conditions could be responsible for previously unexplained features sometimes seen in observed spectra. By accounting for the distribution of crosswind, theoretical spectra can be generated that closely replicate the observations, leading to a better understanding of the measurements. Spatial variability of wind speeds should be expected for paths other than those that are parallel to the surface and over flat, homogenous areas, whilst fluctuations in time are important for all sites.

Analysis of incoherent scatter radar data from non-thermal F-region plasma

A procedure is presented for fitting incoherent scatter radar data from non-thermal F-region ionospheric plasma, using theoretical spectra previously predicted. It is found that values of the shape distortion factor D∗, associated with deviations of the ion velocity distribution from a Maxwellian distribution, and ion temperatures can be deduced (the results being independent of the path of iteration) if the angle between the line-of-sight and the geomagnetic field is larger than about 15–20°. The procedure can be used with one or both of two sets of assumptions. These concern the validity of the adopted model for the line-of-sight ion velocity distribution in the one case or for the full three-dimensional ion velocity distribution function in the other. The distribution function employed was developed to describe the line-of-sight velocity distribution for large aspect angles, but both experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the form of the field-perpendicular distribution can also describe the distribution at more general aspect angles. The assumption of this form for the line-of-sight velocity distribution at a general aspect angle enables rigorous derivation of values of the one-dimensional, line-of-sight ion temperature. With some additional assumptions (principally that the field-parallel distribution is always Maxwellian and there is a simple relationship between the ion temperature anisotropy and the distortion of the field-perpendicular distribution from a Maxwellian), fits to data for large aspect angles enable determination of line-of-sight temperatures at all aspect angles and hence, of the average ion temperature and the ion temperature anisotropy. For small aspect angles, the analysis is restricted to the determination of the line-of-sight ion temperature because the theoretical spectrum is insensitive to non-thermal effects when the plasma is viewed along directions almost parallel to the magnetic field. This limitation is expected to apply to any realistic model of the ion velocity distribution function and its consequences are discussed. Fit strategies which allow for mixed ion composition are also considered. Examples of fits to data from various EISCAT observing programmes are presented.

Analysis of incoherent scatter spectra from non-Maxwellian plasma

Incoherent scatter data from non-thermal F-region ionospheric plasma are analysed, using theoretical spectra predicted by Raman et al. It is found that values of the semi-empirical drift parameter D∗, associated with deviations of the ion velocity distribution from a Maxwellian, and the plasma temperatures can be rigorously deduced (the results being independent of the path of iteration) if the angle between the line-of-sight and the geomagnetic field is larger than about 15–20 degrees. For small aspect angles, the deduced value of the average (or 3-D) ion temperature remains ambiguous and the analysis is restricted to the determination of the line-of-sight temperature because the theoretical spectrum is insensitive to non-thermal effects when the plasma is viewed along directions almost parallel to the magnetic field. This limitation is expected to apply to any realistic model of the ion velocity distribution, and its consequences are discussed. Fit strategies which allow for mixed ion composition are also considered. Examples of fits to data from various EISCAT observing programmes are presented.

Scattered power from non-thermal, F-region plasma observed by EISCAT—evidence for coherent echoes?

Three rapid, poleward bursts of plasma flow, observed by the U.K.-POLAR EISCAT experiment, are studied in detail. In all three cases the large ion velocities (> 1 kms−1) are shown to drive the ion velocity distribution into a non-Maxwellian form, identified by the characteristic shape of the observed spectra and the fact that analysis of the spectra with the assumption of a Maxwellian distribution leads to excessive rises in apparent ion temperature, and an anticorrelation of apparent electron and ion temperatures. For all three periods the total scattered power is shown to rise with apparent ion temperature by up to 6 dB more than is expected for an isotropic Maxwellian plasma of constant density and by an even larger factor than that expected for non-thermal plasma. The anomalous increases in power are only observed at the lower altitudes (< 300 km). At greater altitudes the rise in power is roughly consistent with that simulated numerically for homogeneous, anisotropic, non-Maxwellian plasma of constant density, viewed using the U.K.-POLAR aspect angle. The spectra at times of anomalously high power are found to be asymmetric, showing an enhancement near the downward Doppler-shifted ion-acoustic frequency. Although it is not possible to eliminate completely rapid plasma density fluctuations as a cause of these power increases, such effects cannot explain the observed spectra and the correlation of power and apparent ion temperature without an unlikely set of coincidences. The observations are made along a beam direction which is as much as 16.5° from orthogonality with the geomagnetic field. Nevertheless, some form of coherent-like echo contamination of the incoherent scatter spectrum is the most satisfactory explanation of these data.

Model predictions of the occurrence of non-Maxwellian plasmas, and analysis of their effects on EISCAT data

The recent identification of non-thermal plasmas using EISCAT data has been made possible by their occurrence during large, short-lived flow bursts. For steady, yet rapid, ion convection the only available signature is the shape of the spectrum, which is unreliable because it is open to distortion by noise and sampling uncertainty and can be mimicked by other phenomena. Nevertheless, spectral shape does give an indication of the presence of non-thermal plasma, and the characteristic shape has been observed for long periods (of the order of an hour or more) in some experiments. To evaluate this type of event properly one needs to compare it to what would be expected theoretically. Predictions have been made using the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model developed at University College London and the University of Sheffield to show where and when non-Maxwellian plasmas would be expected in the auroral zone. Geometrical and other factors then govern whether these are detectable by radar. The results are applicable to any incoherent scatter radar in this area, but the work presented here concentrates on predictions with regard to experiments on the EISCAT facility.

The modelled occurrence of non-thermal plasma in the ionospheric F-region and the possible consequences for ion outflows into the magnetosphere

A global, time-dependent, three-dimensional, coupled ionosphere-thermosphere model is used to predict the spatial distribution of non-thermal plasma in the F-layer. It is shown that, even for steady-state conditions with Kp as low as 3, the difference between the ion and neutral velocities often exceeds the neutral thermal speed by a factor, D', which can be as large as 4. Theoretically, highly non-Maxwellian, and probably toroidal, ion velocity distributions are expected when D' exceeds about 1.5. The lack of response of the neutral winds to sunward ion drifts in the dawn sector of the auroral oval cause this to be the region most likely to contain toroidal distributions. The maximum in D' is found in the throat region of the convection pattern, where the strong neutral winds of the afternoon sector meet the eastward ion flows of the morning sector. These predictions are of interest, not only to radar scientists searching for non-thermal ionospheric plasma, but also as one possible explanation of the initial heating and upward flows of ions in the cleft ion fountain and nightside auroral oval, both of which are a major source of plasma for the magnetosphere.

Non-Maxwellian ion velocity distributions observed using EISCAT

Recent observations from the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar have revealed bursts of poleward ion flow in the dayside auroral ionosphere which are consistent with the ionospheric signature of flux transfer events at the magnetopause. These bursts frequently contain ion drifts which exceed the neutral thermal speed and, because the neutral thermospheric wind is incapable of responding sufficiently rapidly, toroidal, non-Maxwellian ion velocity distributions are expected. The EISCAT observations are made with high time resolution (15 seconds) and at a large angle to the geomagnetic field (73.5°), allowing the non-Maxwellian nature of the distribution to be observed remotely for the first time. The observed features are also strongly suggestive of a toroidal distribution: characteristic spectral shape, increased scattered power (both consistent with reduced Landau damping and enhanced electric field fluctuations) and excessively high line-of-sight ion temperatures deduced if a Maxwellian distribution is assumed. These remote sensing observations allow the evolution of the distributions to be observed. They are found to be non-Maxwellian whenever the ion drift exceeds the neutral thermal speed, indicating that such distributions can exist over the time scale of the flow burst events (several minutes).