Indústria de máquinas agrícolas no Brasil: um modelo para estimação da demanda de tratores para o triênio 2016 – 2018

O objetivo desta dissertação foi estimar a demanda de tratores agrícolas para o mercado brasileiro no triênio 2016-2018, utilizando-se para isto de técnicas de econometria de séries temporais, neste caso, modelos univariados da classe ARIMA e SARIMA e ou multivariados SARIMAX. Justifica-se esta pesquisa quando se observa a indústria de máquinas agrícolas no Brasil, dados os ciclos econômicos e outros fatores exógenos aos fundamentos econômicos da demanda, onde esta enfrenta muitos desafios. Dentre estes, a estimação de demanda se destaca, pois exerce forte impacto, por exemplo, no planejamento e custo de produção de curto e médio prazo, níveis de inventários, na relação com fornecedores de materiais e de mão de obra local, e por consequência na geração de valor para o acionista. Durante a fase de revisão bibliográfica foram encontrados vários trabalhos científicos que abordam o agronegócio e suas diversas áreas de atuação, porém, não foram encontrados trabalhos científicos publicados no Brasil que abordassem a previsão da demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil, o que serviu de motivação para agregar conhecimento à academia e valor ao mercado através deste. Concluiu-se, após testes realizados com diversos modelos que estão dispostos no texto e apêndices, que o modelo univariado SARIMA (15,1,1) (1,1,1) cumpriu as premissas estabelecidas nos objetivos específicos para escolha do modelo que melhor se ajusta aos dados, e foi escolhido então, como o modelo para estimação da demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil. Os resultados desta pesquisa apontam para uma demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil oscilando entre 46.000 e 49.000 unidades ano entre os anos de 2016 e 2018.

Factors predictive of inappropriateness in requests for parenteral antimicrobials for therapeutic purposes: A study in a small teaching hospital in Brazil

Background: The identification of patterns of inappropriate antimicrobial prescriptions in hospitals contributes to the improvement of antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASP). Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study to identify predictors of inappropriateness in requests for parenteral antimicrobials (RPAs) in a teaching hospital with 285 beds. We reviewed 25% of RPAs for therapeutic purposes from y 2005. Appropriateness was evaluated according to current guidelines for antimicrobial therapy. We assessed predictors of inappropriateness through univariate and multivariate models. RPAs classified as 'appropriate' or 'probably appropriate' were selected as controls. Case groups comprised inappropriate RPAs, either in general or for specific errors. Results: Nine hundred and sixty-three RPAs were evaluated, 34.6% of which were considered inappropriate. In the multivariate analysis, general predictors of inappropriateness were: prescription on week-ends/holidays (odds ratio (OR) 1.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.28, p = 0.002), patient in the intensive care unit (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.11-2.23, p = 0.01), peritoneal infection (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.27-3.65, p = 0.004), urinary tract infection (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.25 -2.87, p = 0.01), combination therapy with 2 or more antimicrobials (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.15-2.57, p = 0.008) and prescriptions including penicillins (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.39-3.25, p = 0.001) or 1(st) generation cephalosporins (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.01-3.00, p = 0.048). Previous consultation with an infectious diseases (ID) specialist had a protective effect against inappropriate prescription (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.24-0.50, p < 0.001). Factors independently associated with specific prescription errors varied. However, consultation with an ID specialist was protective against both unnecessary antimicrobial use (OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.26, p = 0.001) and requests for agents with an insufficient antimicrobial spectrum (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.03-0.30, p = 0.01). Conclusions: Our results demonstrate the importance of previous consultation with an ID specialist in assuring the quality of prescriptions. Also, they highlight prescription patterns that should be approached by ASP policies.

Temporomandibular Disorders Are Differentially Associated With Headache Diagnoses A Controlled Study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Prevalência de dislipidemia em indivíduos fisicamente ativos durante a infância, adolescência e idade adulta

FUNDAMENTO: A prevalência de dislipidemias vem aumentando em diversas partes do Brasil, porém não é claro ainda quanto de exercício físico é necessário para se obter efeitos benéficos sobre os níveis de lipoproteínas plasmáticas. OBJETIVO: O estudo analisou, em oito cidades do Estado de São Paulo, a associação entre a prática continuada de exercícios físicos ao longo da vida e a ocorrência de dislipidemia na idade adulta. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal envolvendo 2.720 adultos, de ambos os sexos, residentes em oito cidades do Estado de São Paulo. Por meio de entrevista domiciliar, a presença de dislipidemias foi autorreferida e a prática de exercícios físicos foi analisada na infância (7-10 anos), na adolescência (11-17 anos) e na idade adulta (atividades de lazer). No tratamento estatístico, modelos multivariados foram criados com a regressão logística binária. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de dislipidemia foi de 12,2% (IC95%= 11,1%-13,5%) e não houve diferença entre as cidades (p = 0,443). Mulheres (p = 0,001) e obesos (p = 0,001) apresentaram maior taxa de dislipidemia. Exercício físico atual não se associou com a presença de dislipidemia ([> 180 minutos por semana] p = 0,165), porém, a prática de exercício físico, tanto na infância (p = 0,001) como na adolescência (p = 0,001), foi associada com menor ocorrência da doença. Adultos fisicamente ativos em todos os três momentos da vida apresentaram 65% menos chances de reportar dislipidemia (RC = 0,35 [0,15-0,78]). CONCLUSÃO: A prática continuada de exercícios físicos ao longo da vida foi associada com menor ocorrência de dislipidemia entre adultos do Estado de São Paulo.

Evolução e determinantes de incremento de peso (por altura e idade) em crianças de dois a 72 meses em Sorocaba, São Paulo: evidências a partir de estudo quase-experimental seriado.

OBJETIVOS: recupera-se síntese dos principais aspectos das publicações referentes a projeto conduzido pela equipe, na década passada, com o objetivo de subsidiar a avaliação de política pública setorial de suplementação alimentar na infância. MÉTODOS: acompanharam-se trimestralmente, durante um ano, indicadores de crescimento e desenvolvimento em populações periféricas de dois a 72 meses de idade, em Sorocaba, São Paulo. Após realização do censo infantil de duas regiões da cidade, as crianças freqüentes a creches (em número de 164) foram comparadas às demais (280). O impacto nutricional foi quantificado através de análises univariadas (testes inferenciais Kappa e de Goodman) e multivariadas. Vieses e confundimento foram averiguados e controlados. RESULTADOS: observou-se, entre muitas outras informações obtidas, que o grupo assistido apresentou: 1) idade média superior; 2) menor taxa de aleitamento natural; 3) menores valores de peso/altura à admissão, com maiores ganhos durante a evolução; 4) essa melhora aumentou com a duração da exposição e foi maior entre os mais velhos. CONCLUSÕES: avalia-se que assistir apropriadamente pré-escolares constitui hoje, em nosso meio, relevante imperativo de ordem social.

Capabilities and gender: a sum or system of inequalities? The case of Chile

Includes bibliography

Isolamento e caracterização de amostras comunitárias Staphylococcus aureus resistente à Meticilina (CA-MRSA) em uma população carcerária no município de Avaré

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimativas de (co) varância genética de pesos do nascimento até a maturidade em rebanhos da raça Nelore usando modelos de regressão aleatória e de características múltiplas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelos genéticos para a produção no dia do controle em bovinos Gir Leiteiro (Bos indicus)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Fast determination of beef quality parameters with time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and chemometrics

The noteworthy of this study is to predict seven quality parameters for beef samples using time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance (TD-NMR) relaxometry data and multivariate models. Samples from 61 Bonsmara heifers were separated into five groups based on genetic (breeding composition) and feed system (grain and grass feed). Seven sample parameters were analyzed by reference methods; among them, three sensorial parameters, flavor, juiciness and tenderness and four physicochemical parameters, cooking loss, fat and moisture content and instrumental tenderness using Warner Bratzler shear force (WBSF). The raw beef samples of the same animals were analyzed by TD-NMR relaxometry using Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) and Continuous Wave-Free Precession (CWFP) sequences. Regression models computed by partial least squares (PLS) chemometric technique using CPMG and CWFP data and the results of the classical analysis were constructed. The results allowed for the prediction of aforementioned seven properties. The predictive ability of the method was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) for the calibration (RMSEC) and validation (RMSEP) data sets. The reference and predicted values showed no significant differences at a 95% confidence level.

Prevalence of low back pain and associated factors in adults from a middle-size Brazilian city

Objective: To determine the prevalence of low back pain and some related variables among adults of both genders. Methods: Was conduct a cross-sectional study of population-based in the urban area of Presidente Prudente, São Paulo. The sample consisted of 743 adult residents for over two years in this city. Low back pain, quality of sleep and physical activity were collected through face to face interview at the residence of respondents. Was used the chi-square test to analyze the association between variables, later was created tree multivariate models with hierarchical inclusion of confounding factors. Results: The prevalence of low back pain reported last year was 50.2% (95% CI: 46.6, 53.8), and the last week 32.3% (95% CI: 28.9, 35.6). Was association among low back pain and females (p-value = 0.031), older age, lower education, altered sleep and overweight, the adjusted model found that people over the age of 45 years (45 to 59.9 years, OR = 13.1 [1.72-98.5] and ≥ 60 years, OR = 9.10 [1.15-71.7]), with some alteration of sleep (OR = 3.21 [1.84-5.61]) and obese (OR = 2.33 [1:26 to 4:33]) seems to be a risk group for low back pain. Conclusion: The prevalence of low back pain is high and obese people aged over 45 years, with any sleep disturbance are a group at higher risk for low back pain.

Prediction of soil shear strength in agricultural and natural environments of the Brazilian Cerrado

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cointegration: Bayesian Significance Test

To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results". The present article applies the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), especially designed to deal with sharp hypotheses, to cointegration rank selection tests in VECM time series models. It shows the FBST implementation using both simulated and available (in the literature) data sets. As illustration, standard non informative priors are used.

Do Tobacco and Alcohol Modify Protective Effects of Diet on Oral Carcinogenesis?

Recent systematic reviews concluded that the frequent consumption of fruits and vegetables is inversely associated with the risk of oral cancer. We assessed this association, specifically comparing results obtained to nonsmokers and smokers, as well to nondrinkers and drinkers. We conducted a case-control study involving 296 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (cases) attended in 3 major hospitals of Sao Paulo, Brazil, paired with 296 controls, recruited from outpatient units of the same hospitals. Multivariate models assessed the effect of fruits and salads according to smoking and drinking. The intake of fruit was associated with the prevention of the disease in the specific assessment among light [odds ratio (OR) = 0.46; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.27-0.78) and heavy (OR = 0.30; 95% CI = 0.14-0.65) smokers. The same was observed for vegetables consumption. For nonsmokers, no fruit (OR = 50; 95% CI = 0.22-1.12) or vegetable (for tomato, OR = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.31-0.93) was associated with reduced risk of oral and oropharyngeal cancer. Similar results were found in the stratified analysis according to drinking status with OR = 0.51 (95% CI = 0.30-0.87) and 0.18 for fruits (95% CI = 0.07-0.45), respectively, for light and heavy drinkers. This observation suggests that the protective effect of fruit and salad intake may modulate the deleterious effects from tobacco and alcohol.

Second-trimester soft markers: relation to first-trimester nuchal translucency in unaffected pregnancies

Objective Genetic sonography following first-trimester combined screening appears to increase substantially detection rates for Down syndrome but it relies on the unproved assumption of independence between these tests. In this study we aimed to investigate the relationship between first-trimester nuchal translucency (NT) and a series of second-trimester soft markers and structural defects in unaffected pregnancies. Methods NT measurement in the first trimester was followed by second-trimester scan (18 to 23 + 6 weeks) including examination for three categorical markers (intracardiac echogenic foci, hyperechogenic bowel and structural defects) and measurement of nasal bone length, nuchal-fold thickness, femur length, humerus length, renal pelvis diameter and prenasal thickness. All continuous variables were expressed in multiples of the median (MoM) for gestation and correlation coefficients between log-transformed NT and second-trimester variables were calculated. In addition, frequencies of soft markers and structural defects in cases with increased NT were compared to those with normal NT, using MoM cut-offs. Results In a dataset of 1970 cases, NT was significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with all second-trimester continuous variables, the correlation being strongest for nuchal-fold thickness (r = 0.10). There was a higher frequency of cases with second-trimester nuchal-fold thickness above the 97.5th centile (10.7 vs. 2.2%) and hyperechogenic bowel (2.4 vs. 0.1%) in cases with increased NT. Conclusions Straightforward reassessment of risk using likelihood ratios derived from the second-trimester genetic sonogram might lead to inaccurate estimates. Multivariate models using continuous second-trimester variables might be preferable in sequential screening strategies. Copyright. 2012 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.