Indirect child mortality estimation technique to identify trends of under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

Background: In sub-Saharan African countries, the chance of a child dying before the age of five years is high. The problem is similar in Ethiopia, but it shows a decrease over years. Methods: The 2000; 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey results were used for this work. The purpose of the study is to detect the pattern of under-five child mortality overtime. Indirect child mortality estimation technique is adapted to examine the under-five child mortality trend in Ethiopia. Results: From the result, it was possible to see the trend of under-five child mortality in Ethiopia. The under-five child mortality shows a decline in Ethiopia. Conclusion: From the study, it can be seen that there is a positive correlation between mother and child survival which is almost certain in any population. Therefore, this study shows the trend of under-five mortality in Ethiopia and decline over time.

Time-trends in infant mortality rates in the southern Europe

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has been considered an important health indicator in monitoring quality of health care. Objectives: To examine trends in IMR in Southern Europe (SE) over the last two decades. Methods: Number of live births and infant deaths reported for SE (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) between 1990 and 2013 were abstracted from World Health Organization Database. Annual IMR per 1,000 live births was computed for each country and for SE as a whole. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) in IMR and respective 95% Conidence Interval (95% CI) and to identify points in time when signiicant changes in trend occurred (joinpoints). Results: Between 1990 and 2013, IMR signiicantly decreased from 9.2 to 3.4 in SE and the highest decrease was observed from 1992 to 1998 (AAPC = -6.1%; 95%CI: -6.5%; -5.8%). Signiicant decline in IMR was observed in all countries but the pattern was different across countries. IMR varied across countries between 11.5 and 8.3 and between 3.1 and 3.8 in 2013; highest IMR were observed in Portugal for 1990 and in Greece for 2013. Most notable decreases in IMR were observed from 1990 to 1995 in Portugal (AAPC = -8.4% 95%CI: -8.8; -8.1), from 1993 to 1997 in Italy (AAPC = -6.6% 95%CI: -7.8; -5.5) from 1998 to 2006 in Greece (AAPC = -6.8% 95%CI: -7.0; -6.5), and from 1993 to 1996 in Spain (AAPC = -7.3% 95%CI: -9.0; -5.6). Decreases in IMR were signiicant during all time period in Italy and Greece but in Portugal and Spain IMR became unchangeable after 2010-2011. Conclusions: Decrease in IMR in countries of SE suggests steadily improvement in the quality of health care. However differences in the pattern of decrease across countries during the last years deserve particular attention.

International epidemiology of prostate cancer : geographical distribution and secular trends

This review outlines current international patterns in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates and survival, including recent trends and a discussion of the possible impact of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing on the observed data. Internationally, prostate cancer is the second most common cancer diagnosed among men (behind lung cancer), and is the sixth most common cause of cancer death among men. Prostate cancer is particularly prevalent in developed countries such as the United States and the Scandinavian countries, with about a six-fold difference between high-incidence and low-incidence countries. Interpretation of trends in incidence and survival are complicated by the increasing impact of PSA testing, particularly in more developed countries. As Western influences become more pronounced in less developed countries, prostate cancer incidence rates in those countries are tending to increase, even though the prevalence of PSA testing is relatively low. Larger proportions of younger men are being diagnosed with prostate cancer and living longer following diagnosis of prostate cancer, which has many implications for health systems. Decreasing mortality rates are becoming widespread among more developed countries, although it is not clear whether this is due to earlier diagnosis (PSA testing), improved treatment, or some combination of these or other factors.

Changes of mortality and causes of death from 1970 to 2005 and decomposition analysis in Shandong province [山东省1970-2005年人群死亡率极死因变化与差别分解分析]

Objective To describe the trend of overall mortality and major causes of death in Shandong population from 1970 to 2005,and to quantitatively estimate the influential factors. Methods Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using indicators such as mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates by comparing three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. Results The total mortality had had a slight change since 1970s,but had increased since 1990s.However,both the mortality rates of age-adjusted and age-specific decreased significantly. The mortality of Group Ⅰ diseases including infectious diseases as well maternal and perinatal diseases decreased drastically. By contrast, the mortality of non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs)including cardiovascular diseases(CVDs),cancer and injuries increased. The sustentation of recent overall mortality was caused by the interaction of demographic and non-demographic factors which worked oppositely. Non-demographic factors were responsible for the decrease of Group Ⅰ disease and the increase of injuries. With respect to the increase of NCDs as a whole. Demographic factors might take the full responsibility and the non-demographic factors were the opposite force to reduce the mortality. Nevertheless, for the increase of some leading NCD diseases as CVDs and cancer, the increase was mainly due to non-demographic rather than demographic factors. Conclusion Through the interaction of the aggravation of ageing population and the enhancement of non-demographic effect, the overall mortality in Shandong would maintain a balance or slightly rise in the coming years. Group Ⅰ diseases in Shandong had been effectively under control. Strategies focusing on disease control and prevention should be transferred to chronic diseases, especially leading NCDs, such as CVDs and cancer.

Representing Death in the News : Journalism, Media and Mortality

Recent years have seen a renewed interest in the relationship between the news, media and death. Driven by a perceived ubiquity of death and dying on television, in newspapers and on the internet, many scholars have attempted to more closely examine aspects of this coverage. The result is that there now exists a large body of scholarly work on death in the news, yet what has been lacking is a comprehensive synthesis of the field. This book seeks to close this gap by analyzing the scholarship on death in the news by way of a thematic approach. It provides a historical overview, looks at the conditions of production, content and reception, and also analyzes emerging trends in the representation of death online. This fascinating account provides a much needed overview of what we currently know about death in the news and provides food for thought for future studies in the field.

Challenging the myth of an "epidemic" of common mental disorders : trends in the global prevalence of anxiety and depression between 1990 and 2010

Background Anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder (MDD) are common and disabling mental disorders. This paper aims to test the hypothesis that common mental disorders have become more prevalent over the past two decades. Methods We conducted a systematic review of prevalence, remission, duration, and excess mortality studies for anxiety disorders and MDD and then used a Bayesian meta-regression approach to estimate point prevalence for 1990, 2005, and 2010. We also conducted a post-hoc search for studies that used the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) as a measure of psychological distress and tested for trends to present a qualitative comparison of study findings. Results This study found no evidence for an increased prevalence of anxiety disorders or MDD. While the crude number of cases increased by 36%, this was explained by population growth and changing age structures. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders was estimated at 3.8% (3.6-4.1%) in 1990 and 4.0% (3.7-4.2%) in 2010. The prevalence of MDD was unchanged at 4.4% in 1990 (4.2-4.7%) and 2010 (4.1-4.7%). However, 8 of the 11 GHQ studies found a significant increase in psychological distress over time. Conclusions The perceived "epidemic" of common mental disorders is most likely explained by the increasing numbers of affected patients driven by increasing population sizes. Additional factors that may explain this perception include the higher rates of psychological distress as measured using symptom checklists, greater public awareness, and the use of terms such as anxiety and depression in a context where they do not represent clinical disorders.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Trends in hospital admission for stroke in Calgary

Background Stroke incidence has fallen since 1950. Recent trends suggest that stroke incidence may be stabilizing or increasing. We investigated time trends in stroke occurrence and in-hospital morbidity and mortality in the Calgary Health Region. Methods All patients admitted to hospitals in the Calgary Health Region between 1994 and 2002 with a primary discharge diagnosis code (ICD-9 or ICD-10) of stroke were included. In-hospital strokes were also included. Stroke type, date of admission, age, gender,discharge disposition (died, discharged) and in-hospital complications (pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, deep venous thrombosis) were recorded. Poisson and simple linear regression was used to model time trends of occurrence by stroke type and age-group and to extrapolate future time trends. Results From 1994 to 2002, 11642 stroke events were observed. Of these, 9879 patients (84.8%) were discharged from hospital, 1763 (15.1%) died in hospital, and 591 (5.1%) developed in-hospital complications from pneumonia, pulmonary embolism or deep venous thrombosis. Both in-hospital mortality and complication rates were highest for hemorrhages. Over the period of study, the rate of stroke admission has remained stable. However, total numbers of stroke admission to hospital have faced a significant increase (p=0.012) due to the combination of increases in intracerebral hemorrhage (p=0.021) and ischemic stroke admissions (p=0.011). Sub-arachnoid hemorrhage rates have declined. In-hospital stroke mortality has experienced an overall decline due to a decrease in deaths from ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage and sub-arachnoid hemorrhage. Conclusions Although age-adjusted stroke occurrence rates were stable from 1994 to 2002, this is associated with both a sharp increase in the absolute number of stroke admissions and decline in proportional in-hospital mortality. Further research is needed into changes in stroke severity over time to understand the causes of declining in-hospital stroke mortality rates.

Current trends in the etiology and diagnosis of HPV-related head and neck cancers

Human papilloma virus (HPV) infection is a major risk factor for a distinct subset of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The current review summarizes the epidemiology of HNSCC and the disease burden, the infectious cycle of HPV, the roles of viral oncoproteins, E6 and E7, and the downstream cellular events that lead to malignant transformation. Current techniques for the clinical diagnosis of HPV-associated HNSCC will also be discussed, that is, the detection of HPV DNA, RNA, and the HPV surrogate marker, p16 in tumor tissues, as well as HPV-specific antibodies in serum. Such methods do not allow for the early detection of HPV-associated HNSCC and most cases are at an advanced stage upon diagnosis. Novel noninvasive approaches using oral fluid, a clinically relevant biological fluid, allow for the detection of HPV and cellular alterations in infected cells, which may aid in the early detection and HPV-typing of HNSCC tumors. Noninvasive diagnostic methods will enable early detection and intervention, leading to a significant reduction in mortality and morbidity associated with HNSCC.

The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: An epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

Background Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China. Method We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities. Results Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050). Conclusion Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature.

Not in all Walks of Life? : Social Differences in Suicide Mortality

In Finland, the suicide mortality trend has been decreasing during the last decade and a half, yet suicide was the fourth most common cause of death among both Finnish men and women aged 15 64 years in 2006. However, suicide does not occur equally among population sub-groups. Two notable social factors that position people at different risk of suicide are socioeconomic and employment status: those with low education, employed in manual occupations, having low income and those who are unemployed have been found to have an elevated suicide risk. The purpose of this study was to provide a systematic analysis of these social differences in suicide mortality in Finland. Besides studying socioeconomic trends and differences in suicide according to age and sex, different indicators for socioeconomic status were used simultaneously, taking account of their pathways and mutual associations while also paying attention to confounding and mediatory effects of living arrangements and employment status. Register data obtained from Statistics Finland were used in this study. In some analyses suicides were divided into two groups according to contributory causes of death: the first group consisted of suicide deaths that had alcohol intoxication as one of the contributory causes, and the other group is comprised of all other suicide deaths. Methods included Poisson and Cox regression models. Despite the decrease in suicide mortality trend, social differences still exist. Low occupation-based social class proved to be an important determinant of suicide risk among both men and women, but the strong independent effect of education on alcohol-associated suicide indicates that the roots of these differences are probably established in early adulthood when educational qualifications are obtained and health-behavioural patterns set. High relative suicide mortality among the unemployed during times of economic boom suggests that selective processes may be responsible for some of the employment status differences in suicide. However, long-term unemployment seems to have causal effects on suicide, which, especially among men, partly stem from low income. In conclusion, the results in this study suggest that education, occupation-based social class and employment status have causal effects on suicide risk, but to some extent selection into low education and unemployment are also involved in the explanations for excess suicide mortality among the socially deprived. It is also conceivable that alcohol use is to some extent behind social differences in suicide. In addition to those with low education, manual workers and the unemployed, young people, whose health-related behaviour is still to be adopted, would most probably benefit from suicide prevention programmes.

Catch-per-unit-effort and biological parameters from the Massachusetts coastal lobster (Homarus americanus) resource: Description and trends

Acomprehensive description of the Massachusetts coastal lobster (Homarus americanus) resou,rce was obtained by sampling commercial catches coastwide at sea and at dealerships between 1981 and 1986. Acommercial lobster sea-sampling program, wherein six coastal regions were sampled monthly, with an areal and temporal data weighting design, was the primary source of data. An improved index of catch per trap haul/set-over-day was generated by modeling the relationship between catch and immersion time and standardizing effort. This 6-year time-series of mean annual catch rates tracked closely the landings trend for territorial waters. During the study period there was a gradual increase in indices of exploitation and total annual mortality which corresponded to a gradual decline in mean carapace length of marketable lobster. The frequency of culls escalated from 10.0% in 1981 to 20.9% in 1986, while the percentage of lobster found dead in traps was consistently less than 1%. The sex ratio (%F:%M) was significantly different from 50:50 and approximated a 60:40 relationship during the study period. Male and female weight-length relationships were significantly different. Females weighed more than males at smaller sizes and less than males at larger sizes. A north-south clinal trend was evident wherein lobster north of Cape Cod weighed less at length than those from regions south of Cape Cod. Functional size-maturity relationships were developed for female lobster by staging cement gland development. Proportions mature at size represent more realistic values than those obtained by analyses of percent of females ovigerous. Regional variation occurred in most of the parameters studied. Three lobster groups, differing in major population descriptors, are defined by our data.(PDF file contains 28 pages.)

Mortality of Lingcod, Ophiodon elongatus, Related to Capture by Hook and Line

Lingcod, Ophiodon elongatus, were captured by hook and line (sport rod and reel gear and commercial troll gear) at two coastal California locations and held in aquaria for periods of up to 32 days for evaluation of capture-related mortality. Three of 69 lingcod captured with rod and reel gear died of capture-related injuries (4.3% mortality; 95% confidence interval 0–9.3%). None of 15 lingcod captured with troll gear died of capture-related injuries. Due to the low overall mortality rate, there were no discernable trends in mortality with respect to sex, length, depth of capture, and terminal tackle (bait vs. lure). Of 38 fish with visible hooking wounds, 26 showed evidence of wound healing during the holding period.

Recent Trends in the Catch of Undersized Swordfish by the U.S. Pelagic Longline Fishery

U.S. commercial vessels fishing in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico have been subject to regulations limiting the landing of swordfish less than 25 kg whole weight since June 1991. The intent of those regulations was to reduce the mortality of immature swordfihs. Plots of fishing effort from 1990 to 1994 indicate that the regulations were effective in some areas. Fishing effort decreased after 1991 in the Venezuelan Basin, a swordfish nursery area. However, in areas close to the U.S. coastline, effort did not appear to shift away from areas where immature swordfish were discarded. To identify areas with high rates of discarding, plots were made showing areas where the number of discarded swordfish was equal to or greater than the number of fish landed.