USING PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICAL MODELS TO DRAW INFERENCES IN SENSOR NETWORKS WITH TRACKING APPLICATIONS

Sensor networks have been an active research area in the past decade due to the variety of their applications. Many research studies have been conducted to solve the problems underlying the middleware services of sensor networks, such as self-deployment, self-localization, and synchronization. With the provided middleware services, sensor networks have grown into a mature technology to be used as a detection and surveillance paradigm for many real-world applications. The individual sensors are small in size. Thus, they can be deployed in areas with limited space to make unobstructed measurements in locations where the traditional centralized systems would have trouble to reach. However, there are a few physical limitations to sensor networks, which can prevent sensors from performing at their maximum potential. Individual sensors have limited power supply, the wireless band can get very cluttered when multiple sensors try to transmit at the same time. Furthermore, the individual sensors have limited communication range, so the network may not have a 1-hop communication topology and routing can be a problem in many cases. Carefully designed algorithms can alleviate the physical limitations of sensor networks, and allow them to be utilized to their full potential. Graphical models are an intuitive choice for designing sensor network algorithms. This thesis focuses on a classic application in sensor networks, detecting and tracking of targets. It develops feasible inference techniques for sensor networks using statistical graphical model inference, binary sensor detection, events isolation and dynamic clustering. The main strategy is to use only binary data for rough global inferences, and then dynamically form small scale clusters around the target for detailed computations. This framework is then extended to network topology manipulation, so that the framework developed can be applied to tracking in different network topology settings. Finally the system was tested in both simulation and real-world environments. The simulations were performed on various network topologies, from regularly distributed networks to randomly distributed networks. The results show that the algorithm performs well in randomly distributed networks, and hence requires minimum deployment effort. The experiments were carried out in both corridor and open space settings. A in-home falling detection system was simulated with real-world settings, it was setup with 30 bumblebee radars and 30 ultrasonic sensors driven by TI EZ430-RF2500 boards scanning a typical 800 sqft apartment. Bumblebee radars are calibrated to detect the falling of human body, and the two-tier tracking algorithm is used on the ultrasonic sensors to track the location of the elderly people.

Efforts and Models of Education for Parents: the Danish Approach

The report examines the relationship between day care institutions, schools and so called “parents unfamiliar to education” as well as the relationship between the institutions. With in Danish public and professional discourse concepts like parents unfamiliar to education are usually referring to environments, parents or families with either no or just very restricted experience of education except for the basic school (folkeskole). The “grand old man” of Danish educational research, Prof. Em. Erik Jørgen Hansen, defines the concept as follows: Parents who are distant from or not familiar with education, are parents without tradition of education and by that fact they are not able to contribute constructively in order to back up their own children during their education. Many teachers and pedagogues are not used to that term; they rather prefer concepts like “socially exposed” or “socially disadvantaged” parents or social classes or strata. The report does not only focus on parents who are not capable to support the school achievements of their children, since a low level of education is usually connected with social disadvantage. Such parents are often not capable of understanding and meeting the demands from side of the school when sending their children to school. They lack the competencies or the necessary competence of action. For the moment being much attention is done from side of the Ministries of Education and Social Affairs (recently renamed Ministry of Welfare) in order to create equal possibilities for all children. Many kinds of expertise (directions, counsels, researchers, etc.) have been more than eager to promote recommendations aiming at achieving the ambitious goal: 2015 95% of all young people should complement a full education (classes 10.-12.). Research results are pointing out the importance of increased participation of parents. In other word the agenda is set for ‘parents’ education’. It seems necessary to underline that Danish welfare policy has been changing rather radical. The classic model was an understanding of welfare as social assurance and/or as social distribution – based on social solidarity. The modern model looks like welfare as social service and/or social investment. This means that citizens are changing role – from user and/or citizen to consumer and/or investor. The Danish state is in correspondence with decisions taken by the government investing in a national future shaped by global competition. The new models of welfare – “service” and “investment” – imply severe changes in hitherto known concepts of family life, relationship between parents and children etc. As an example the investment model points at a new implementation of the relationship between social rights and the rights of freedom. The service model has demonstrated that weakness that the access to qualified services in the field of health or education is becoming more and more dependent of the private purchasing power. The weakness of the investment model is that it represents a sort of “The Winner takes it all” – since a political majority is enabled to make agendas in societal fields former protected by the tripartite power and the rights of freedom of the citizens. The outcome of the Danish development seems to be an establishment of a political governed public service industry which on one side are capable of competing on market conditions and on the other are able being governed by contracts. This represents a new form of close linking of politics, economy and professional work. Attempts of controlling education, pedagogy and thereby the population are not a recent invention. In European history we could easily point at several such experiments. The real news is the linking between political priorities and exercise of public activities by economic incentives. By defining visible goals for the public servants, by introducing measurement of achievements and effects, and by implementing a new wage policy depending on achievements and/or effects a new system of accountability is manufactured. The consequences are already perceptible. The government decides to do some special interventions concerning parents, children or youngsters, the public servants on municipality level are instructed to carry out their services by following a manual, and the parents are no longer protected by privacy. Protection of privacy and minority is no longer a valuable argumentation to prevent further interventions in people’s life (health, food, school, etc.). The citizens are becoming objects of investment, also implying that people are investing in their own health, education, and family. This means that investments in changes of life style and development of competences go hand in hand. The below mentioned programmes are conditioned by this shift.

Ontologies and Methods for Interoperability of Engineering Analysis Models (EAMS) in an E-Design Environment

ABSTRACT ONTOLOGIES AND METHODS FOR INTEROPERABILITY OF ENGINEERING ANALYSIS MODELS (EAMS) IN AN E-DESIGN ENVIRONMENT SEPTEMBER 2007 NEELIMA KANURI, B.S., BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCES PILANI INDIA M.S., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST Directed by: Professor Ian Grosse Interoperability is the ability of two or more systems to exchange and reuse information efficiently. This thesis presents new techniques for interoperating engineering tools using ontologies as the basis for representing, visualizing, reasoning about, and securely exchanging abstract engineering knowledge between software systems. The specific engineering domain that is the primary focus of this report is the modeling knowledge associated with the development of engineering analysis models (EAMs). This abstract modeling knowledge has been used to support integration of analysis and optimization tools in iSIGHT FD , a commercial engineering environment. ANSYS , a commercial FEA tool, has been wrapped as an analysis service available inside of iSIGHT-FD. Engineering analysis modeling (EAM) ontology has been developed and instantiated to form a knowledge base for representing analysis modeling knowledge. The instances of the knowledge base are the analysis models of real world applications. To illustrate how abstract modeling knowledge can be exploited for useful purposes, a cantilever I-Beam design optimization problem has been used as a test bed proof-of-concept application. Two distinct finite element models of the I-beam are available to analyze a given beam design- a beam-element finite element model with potentially lower accuracy but significantly reduced computational costs and a high fidelity, high cost, shell-element finite element model. The goal is to obtain an optimized I-beam design at minimum computational expense. An intelligent KB tool was developed and implemented in FiPER . This tool reasons about the modeling knowledge to intelligently shift between the beam and the shell element models during an optimization process to select the best analysis model for a given optimization design state. In addition to improved interoperability and design optimization, methods are developed and presented that demonstrate the ability to operate on ontological knowledge bases to perform important engineering tasks. One such method is the automatic technical report generation method which converts the modeling knowledge associated with an analysis model to a flat technical report. The second method is a secure knowledge sharing method which allocates permissions to portions of knowledge to control knowledge access and sharing. Both the methods acting together enable recipient specific fine grain controlled knowledge viewing and sharing in an engineering workflow integration environment, such as iSIGHT-FD. These methods together play a very efficient role in reducing the large scale inefficiencies existing in current product design and development cycles due to poor knowledge sharing and reuse between people and software engineering tools. This work is a significant advance in both understanding and application of integration of knowledge in a distributed engineering design framework.

LakeMIP Kivu: evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models

The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing), as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E), East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP). Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model’s performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m) and over the average lake depth (240 m), since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

Cultural models of healing and health: An ethnography of professional nurses and healers

Cultural models of the domains healing and health are important in how people understand health and their behavior regarding it. The biomedicine model has been predominant in Western society. Recent popularity of holistic health and alternative healing modalities contrasts with the biomedical model and the assumptions upon which that model has been practiced. The holistic health movement characterizes an effort by health care providers and others such as nurses to expand the biomedical model and has often incorporated alternative modalities. This research described and compared the cultural models of healing of professional nurses and alternative healers. A group of nursing faculty who promote a holistic model were compared to a group of healers using healing touch. Ethnographic methods of participant observation, free listing and pile sort were used. Theoretical sampling in the free listings reached saturation at 18 in the group of nurses and 21 in the group of healers. Categories consistent for both groups emerged from the data. These were: physical, mental, attitude, relationships, spiritual, self management, and health seeking including biomedical and alternative resources. The healers had little differentiation between the concepts health and healing. The nurses, however, had more elements in self management for health and in health seeking for healing. This reflects the nurse's role in facilitating the shift in locus of responsibility between health and healing. The healers provided more specific information regarding alternative resources. The healer's conceptualization of health was embedded in a spiritual belief system and contrasted dramatically with that of biomedicine. The healer's models also contrasted with holistic health in the areas of holism, locus of responsibility, and dealing with uncertainty. The similarity between the groups and their dissimilarity to biomedicine suggest a larger cultural shift in beliefs regarding health care. ^

Neighbourhood socio-economic position, late presentation and outcomes in people living with HIV in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: Inequalities and inequities in health are an important public health concern. In Switzerland, mortality in the general population varies according to the socio-economic position (SEP) of neighbourhoods. We examined the influence of neighbourhood SEP on presentation and outcomes in HIV-positive individuals in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: The neighbourhood SEP of patients followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) 2000-2013 was obtained on the basis of 2000 census data on the 50 nearest households (education and occupation of household head, rent, mean number of persons per room). We used Cox and logistic regression models to examine the probability of late presentation, virologic response to cART, loss to follow-up and death across quintiles of neighbourhood SEP. RESULTS: A total of 4489 SHCS participants were included. Presentation with advanced disease [CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl or AIDS] and with AIDS was less common in neighbourhoods of higher SEP: the age and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of SEP was 0.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.58-0.87] and 0.59 (95% CI 0.45-0.77), respectively. An undetectable viral load at 6 months of cART was more common in the highest than in the lowest quintile (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.14-2.04). Loss to follow-up, mortality and causes of death were not associated with neighbourhood SEP. CONCLUSION: Late presentation was more common and virologic response to cART less common in HIV-positive individuals living in neighbourhoods of lower SEP, but in contrast to the general population, there was no clear trend for mortality.

People, protected areas and ecosystem services: a qualitative and quantitative analysis of local people's perception and preferences in Côte d'Ivoire

The long-term integrity of protected areas (PAs), and hence the maintenance of related ecosystem services (ES), are dependent on the support of local people. In the present study, local people's perceptions of ecosystem services from PAs and factors that govern local preferences for PAs are assessed. Fourteen study villages were randomly selected from three different protected forest areas and one control site along the southern coast of Côte d'Ivoire. Data was collected through a mixed-method approach, including qualitative semi-structured interviews and a household survey based on hypothetical choice scenarios. Local people's perceptions of ecosystem service provision was decrypted through qualitative content analysis, while the relation between people's preferences and potential factors that affect preferences were analyzed through multinomial models. This study shows that rural villagers do perceive a number of different ecosystem services as benefits from PAs in Côte d'Ivoire. The results based on quantitative data also suggest that local preferences for PAs and related ecosystem services are driven by PAs' management rules, age, and people's dependence on natural resources.

Effect of Health Risk Assessment and Counselling on Health Behaviour and Survival in Older People: A Pragmatic Randomised Trial.

BACKGROUND Potentially avoidable risk factors continue to cause unnecessary disability and premature death in older people. Health risk assessment (HRA), a method successfully used in working-age populations, is a promising method for cost-effective health promotion and preventive care in older individuals, but the long-term effects of this approach are unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of an innovative approach to HRA and counselling in older individuals for health behaviours, preventive care, and long-term survival. METHODS AND FINDINGS This study was a pragmatic, single-centre randomised controlled clinical trial in community-dwelling individuals aged 65 y or older registered with one of 19 primary care physician (PCP) practices in a mixed rural and urban area in Switzerland. From November 2000 to January 2002, 874 participants were randomly allocated to the intervention and 1,410 to usual care. The intervention consisted of HRA based on self-administered questionnaires and individualised computer-generated feedback reports, combined with nurse and PCP counselling over a 2-y period. Primary outcomes were health behaviours and preventive care use at 2 y and all-cause mortality at 8 y. At baseline, participants in the intervention group had a mean ± standard deviation of 6.9 ± 3.7 risk factors (including unfavourable health behaviours, health and functional impairments, and social risk factors) and 4.3 ± 1.8 deficits in recommended preventive care. At 2 y, favourable health behaviours and use of preventive care were more frequent in the intervention than in the control group (based on z-statistics from generalised estimating equation models). For example, 70% compared to 62% were physically active (odds ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.16-1.77, p = 0.001), and 66% compared to 59% had influenza vaccinations in the past year (odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66, p = 0.005). At 8 y, based on an intention-to-treat analysis, the estimated proportion alive was 77.9% in the intervention and 72.8% in the control group, for an absolute mortality difference of 4.9% (95% CI 1.3%-8.5%, p = 0.009; based on z-test for risk difference). The hazard ratio of death comparing intervention with control was 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94, p = 0.009; based on Wald test from Cox regression model), and the number needed to receive the intervention to prevent one death was 21 (95% CI 12-79). The main limitations of the study include the single-site study design, the use of a brief self-administered questionnaire for 2-y outcome data collection, the unavailability of other long-term outcome data (e.g., functional status, nursing home admissions), and the availability of long-term follow-up data on mortality for analysis only in 2014. CONCLUSIONS This is the first trial to our knowledge demonstrating that a collaborative care model of HRA in community-dwelling older people not only results in better health behaviours and increased use of recommended preventive care interventions, but also improves survival. The intervention tested in our study may serve as a model of how to implement a relatively low-cost but effective programme of disease prevention and health promotion in older individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN 28458424.

Marginal lands or marginal people? Analysing key processes determining the outcomes of large-scale land acquisitions in Lao PDR and Cambodia

This chapter aims to overcome the gap existing between case study research, which typically provides qualitative and process-based insights, and national or global inventories that typically offer spatially explicit and quantitative analysis of broader patterns, and thus to present adequate evidence for policymaking regarding large-scale land acquisitions. Therefore, the chapter links spatial patterns of land acquisitions to underlying implementation processes of land allocation. Methodologically linking the described patterns and processes proved difficult, but we have identified indicators that could be added to inventories and monitoring systems to make linkage possible. Combining complementary approaches in this way may help to determine where policy space exists for more sustainable governance of land acquisitions, both geographically and with regard to processes of agrarian transitions. Our spatial analysis revealed two general patterns: (i) relatively large forestry-related acquisitions that target forested landscapes and often interfere with semi-subsistence farming systems; and (ii) smaller agriculture-related acquisitions that often target existing cropland and also interfere with semi-subsistence systems. Furthermore, our meta-analysis of land acquisition implementation processes shows that authoritarian, top-down processes dominate. Initially, the demands of powerful regional and domestic investors tend to override socio-ecological variables, local actors’ interests, and land governance mechanisms. As available land grows scarce, however, and local actors gain experience dealing with land acquisitions, it appears that land investments begin to fail or give way to more inclusive, bottom-up investment models.

Domains of importance to the quality of life of older people from two Swiss regions

BACKGROUND Quality of life (QoL) is a subjective perception whose components may vary in importance between individuals. Little is known about which domains of QoL older people deem most important. OBJECTIVE This study investigated in community-dwelling older people the relationships between the importance given to domains defining their QoL and socioeconomic, demographic and health status. METHODS Data were compiled from older people enrolled in the Lc65+ cohort study and two additional, population-based, stratified random samples (n = 5,300). Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to determine the underlying domains among 28 items that participants defined as important to their QoL. The components extracted were used as dependent variables in multiple linear regression models to explore their associations with socioeconomic, demographic and health status. RESULTS PCA identified seven domains that older persons considered important to their QoL. In order of importance (highest to lowest): feeling of safety, health and mobility, autonomy, close entourage, material resources, esteem and recognition, and social and cultural life. A total of six and five domains of importance were significantly associated with education and depressive symptoms, respectively. The importance of material resources was significantly associated with a good financial situation (β = 0.16, P = 0.011), as was close entourage with living with others (β = 0.20, P = 0.007) and as was health and mobility with age (β = -0.16, P = 0.014). CONCLUSION The importance older people give to domains of their QoL appears strongly related to their actual resources and experienced losses. These findings may help clinicians, researchers and policy makers better adapt strategies to individuals' needs.

Tuberculosis-related mortality in people living with HIV in Europe and Latin America: an international cohort study

BACKGROUND Management of tuberculosis in patients with HIV in eastern Europe is complicated by the high prevalence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, low rates of drug susceptibility testing, and poor access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We report 1 year mortality estimates from a multiregional (eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America) prospective cohort study: the TB:HIV study. METHODS Consecutive HIV-positive patients aged 16 years or older with a diagnosis of tuberculosis between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013, were enrolled from 62 HIV and tuberculosis clinics in 19 countries in eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America. The primary endpoint was death within 12 months after starting tuberculosis treatment; all deaths were classified according to whether or not they were tuberculosis related. Follow-up was either until death, the final visit, or 12 months after baseline, whichever occurred first. Risk factors for all-cause and tuberculosis-related deaths were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox models. FINDINGS Of 1406 patients (834 in eastern Europe, 317 in western Europe, and 255 in Latin America), 264 (19%) died within 12 months. 188 (71%) of these deaths were tuberculosis related. The probability of all-cause death was 29% (95% CI 26-32) in eastern Europe, 4% (3-7) in western Europe, and 11% (8-16) in Latin America (p<0·0001) and the corresponding probabilities of tuberculosis-related death were 23% (20-26), 1% (0-3), and 4% (2-8), respectively (p<0·0001). Patients receiving care outside eastern Europe had a 77% decreased risk of death: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0·23 (95% CI 0·16-0·31). In eastern Europe, compared with patients who started a regimen with at least three active antituberculosis drugs, those who started fewer than three active antituberculosis drugs were at a higher risk of tuberculosis-related death (aHR 3·17; 95% CI 1·83-5·49) as were those who did not have baseline drug-susceptibility tests (2·24; 1·31-3·83). Other prognostic factors for increased tuberculosis-related mortality were disseminated tuberculosis and a low CD4 cell count. 18% of patients were receiving ART at tuberculosis diagnosis in eastern Europe compared with 44% in western Europe and 39% in Latin America (p<0·0001); 12 months later the proportions were 67% in eastern Europe, 92% in western Europe, and 85% in Latin America (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Patients with HIV and tuberculosis in eastern Europe have a risk of death nearly four-times higher than that in patients from western Europe and Latin America. This increased mortality rate is associated with modifiable risk factors such as lack of drug susceptibility testing and suboptimal initial antituberculosis treatment in settings with a high prevalence of drug resistance. Urgent action is needed to improve tuberculosis care for patients living with HIV in eastern Europe. FUNDING EU Seventh Framework Programme.

Logistic regression models for ordinal response: A study of self-efficacy in colorectal cancer screening

The ordinal logistic regression models are used to analyze the dependant variable with multiple outcomes that can be ranked, but have been underutilized. In this study, we describe four logistic regression models for analyzing the ordinal response variable. ^ In this methodological study, the four regression models are proposed. The first model uses the multinomial logistic model. The second is adjacent-category logit model. The third is the proportional odds model and the fourth model is the continuation-ratio model. We illustrate and compare the fit of these models using data from the survey designed by the University of Texas, School of Public Health research project PCCaSO (Promoting Colon Cancer Screening in people 50 and Over), to study the patient’s confidence in the completion colorectal cancer screening (CRCS). ^ The purpose of this study is two fold: first, to provide a synthesized review of models for analyzing data with ordinal response, and second, to evaluate their usefulness in epidemiological research, with particular emphasis on model formulation, interpretation of model coefficients, and their implications. Four ordinal logistic models that are used in this study include (1) Multinomial logistic model, (2) Adjacent-category logistic model [9], (3) Continuation-ratio logistic model [10], (4) Proportional logistic model [11]. We recommend that the analyst performs (1) goodness-of-fit tests, (2) sensitivity analysis by fitting and comparing different models.^

Determinant factors to discriminate the body weight loss in overweight people

Introduction. Most studies have described how the weight loss is when different treatments are compared (1-3), while others have also compared the weight loss by sex (4), or have taken into account psychosocial (5) and lifestyle (6, 7) variables. However, no studies have examined the interaction of different variables and the importance of them in the weight loss. Objective. Create a model to discriminate the range of weight loss, determining the importance of each variable. Methods. 89 overweight people (BMI: 25-29.9 kg?m-2), aged from 18 to 50 years, participated in the study. Four types of treatments were randomly assigned: strength training (S), endurance training (E), strength and endurance training (SE), and control group (C). All participants followed a 25% calorie restriction diet. Two multivariate discriminant models including the variables age, sex, height, daily energy expenditure (EE), type of treatment (T), caloric restriction (CR), initial body weight (BW), initial fat mass (FM), initial muscle mass (MM) and initial bone mineral density (BMD) were performed having into account two groups: the first and fourth quartile of the % of weight loss in the first model; the groups above and below the mean of the % of weight loss in the second model. The discriminant models were built using the inclusion method in SPSS allowing us to find a function that could predict the body weight loss range that an overweight person could achieve in a 6 months weight loss intervention.Results. The first discriminant analysis predicted that a combination of the studied variables would discriminate between the two ranges of body weight loss with 81.4% of correct classification. The discriminant function obtained was (Wilks? Lambda=0.475, p=0.003): Discriminant score=-18.266-(0.060xage)- (1.282xsex[0=female;1=male])+(14.701xheight)+(0.002xEE)- (0.006xT[1=S;2=E;3=SE;4=C])-(0.047xCR)- (0.558xBW)+(0.475xFM)+(0.398xMM)+(3.499xBMD) The second discriminant model obtained would discriminate between the two groups of body weight loss with 74.4% of correct classification. The discriminant function obtained was (Wilks? Lambda=0.725, p=0.005): Discriminant score=-5.021-(0.052xage)- (0.543xsex[0=female;1=male])+(3.530xheight)+(0.001xEE)- (0.493xT[1=S;2=E;3=SE;4=C])+(0.003xCR)- (0.365xBW)+(0.368xFM)+(0.296xMM)+(4.034xBMD) Conclusion. The first developed model could predict the percentage of weight loss in the following way: if the discriminant score is close to 1.051, the range of weight loss will be from 7.44 to -4.64% and if it is close to - 1.003, the range will be from -11.03 to -25,00% of the initial body weight. With the second model if the discriminant score is close to 0.623 the body weight loss will be above -7.93% and if it is close to -0.595 will be below - 7.93% of the initial body weight. References. 1. Brochu M, et al. Resistance training does not contribute to improving the metabolic profile after a 6-month weight loss program in overweight and obese postmenopausal women. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2009 Sep;94(9):3226-33. 2. Del Corral P, et al. Effect of dietary adherence with or without exercise on weight loss: a mechanistic approach to a global problem. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2009 May;94(5):1602-7. 3. Larson-Meyer DE, et al. Caloric Restriction with or without Exercise: The Fitness vs. Fatness Debate. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2010;42(1):152-9. 4. Hagan RD, et al. The effects of aerobic conditioning and/or caloric restriction in overweight men and women. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise. 1986;18(1):87-94. 5. Teixeira PJ, et al. Mediators of weight loss and weight loss maintenance in middle-aged women. Obesity (Silver Spring). 2010 Apr;18(4):725-35. 6. Bautista-Castano I, et al. Variables predictive of adherence to diet and physical activity recommendations in the treatment of obesity and overweight, in a group of Spanish subjects. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord. 2004 May;28(5):697-705.

Mathematical models for the arrangement and the cleaning of the river basin and surroundings of the river sandy grounds to its passage by the city of Salta (Argentina)

The province of Salta is located the Northwest of Argentina in the border with Bolivia, Chile and Paraguay. Its Capital is the city of Salta that concentrates half of the inhabitants of the province and has grown to 600000 hab., from a small active Spanish town well founded in 1583. The city is crossed by the Arenales River descending from close mountains at North, source of water and end of sewers. But with actual growing it has become a focus of infection and of remarkable unhealthiness. It is necessary to undertake a plan for the recovery of the river, directed to the attainment of the well-being and to improve the life?s quality of the Community. The fundamental idea of the plan is to obtain an ordering of the river basin and an integral management of the channel and its surroundings, including the cleaning out. The improvement of the water?s quality, the healthiness of the surroundings and the improvement of the environment, must go hand by hand with the development of sport activities, of relaxation, tourism, establishment of breeding grounds, kitchen gardens, micro enterprises with clean production and other actions that contribute to their benefit by the society, that being a basic factor for their care and sustainable use. The present pollution is organic, chemical, industrial, domestic, due to the disposition of sweepings and sewer effluents that affects not only the flora and small fauna, destroying the biodiversity, but also to the health of people living in their margins. Within the plan it will be necessary to consider, besides hydric and environmental cleaning and the prevention of floods, the planning of the extraction of aggregates, the infrastructure and consolidation of margins works and the arrangement of all the river basin. It will be necessary to consider the public intervention at state, provincial and local level, and the private intervention. In the model it has been necessary to include the sub-model corresponding to the election of the entity to be the optimal instrument to reach the proposed objectives, giving an answer to the social, environmental and economic requirements. For that the authors have used multi-criteria decision methods to qualify and select alternatives, and for the programming of their implementation. In the model the authors have contemplated the short, average and long term actions. They conform a Paretooptimal alternative which secures the ordering, integral and suitable management of the basin of the Arenales River, focusing on its passage by the city of Salta.

A review of load models for the prediction of footfall-induced vibration in structures

Crowd induced dynamic loading in large structures, such as gymnasiums or stadium, is usually modelled as a series of harmonic loads which are defined in terms of their Fourier coefficients. Different values of these coefficients that were obtained from full scale measurements can be found in codes. Recently, an alternative has been proposed, based on random generation of load time histories that take into account phase lag among individuals inside the crowd. This paper presents the testing done on a structure designed to be a gymnasium. Two series of dynamic test were performed on the gym slab. For the first test an electrodynamic shaker was placed at several locations and during the second one people located inside a marked area bounced and jumped guided by different metronome rates. A finite element model (FEM) is presented and a comparison of numerically predicted and experimentally observed vibration modes and frequencies has been used to assess its validity. The second group of measurements will be compared with predictions made using the FEM model and three alternatives for crowd induced load modelling.