Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

Public Commons for Geospatial Data: A Conceptual Model

A wide variety of spatial data collection efforts are ongoing throughout local, state and federal agencies, private firms and non-profit organizations. Each effort is established for a different purpose but organizations and individuals often collect and maintain the same or similar information. The United States federal government has undertaken many initiatives such as the National Spatial Data Infrastructure, the National Map and Geospatial One-Stop to reduce duplicative spatial data collection and promote the coordinated use, sharing, and dissemination of spatial data nationwide. A key premise in most of these initiatives is that no national government will be able to gather and maintain more than a small percentage of the geographic data that users want and desire. Thus, national initiatives depend typically on the cooperation of those already gathering spatial data and those using GIs to meet specific needs to help construct and maintain these spatial data infrastructures and geo-libraries for their nations (Onsrud 2001). Some of the impediments to widespread spatial data sharing are well known from directly asking GIs data producers why they are not currently involved in creating datasets that are of common or compatible formats, documenting their datasets in a standardized metadata format or making their datasets more readily available to others through Data Clearinghouses or geo-libraries. The research described in this thesis addresses the impediments to wide-scale spatial data sharing faced by GIs data producers and explores a new conceptual data-sharing approach, the Public Commons for Geospatial Data, that supports user-friendly metadata creation, open access licenses, archival services and documentation of parent lineage of the contributors and value- adders of digital spatial data sets.

Factors associated with needle sharing among Black male injection drug users in Harris County, Texas

Background. Injection drug users (IDUs) are at increased risk for HIV transmission due to unique risk behaviors, such as sharing needles. In Houston, IDUs account for 18% of all HIV/AIDS cases among Black males. ^ Objectives. This analysis compared demographic, behavioral, and psychosocial characteristics of needle sharing and non-sharing IDUs in a population of Black males in Harris County, Texas. ^ Methods. Data used for this analysis were from the second IDU cycle of the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System. This dataset included a sample of 288 Black male IDUs. Univariate and multivariate statistical analysis were performed to determine statistically significant associations of needle sharing in this population and to create a functional model to inform local HIV prevention programs. ^ Results. Half of the participants in this analysis shared needles in the past 12 months. Compared to non-sharers, sharers were more likely to be homeless (OR=3.70, p<0.01) or arrested in the past year (OR=2.31, p<0.01), inject cocaine (OR=2.07, p<0.01), report male-to-male sex in the past year (OR=6.97, p<0.01), and to exchange sex for money or drugs. Sharers were less likely than non-sharers to graduate high school (OR=0.36, p<0.01), earn $5,000 or more a year (OR=1.15, p=0.05), get needles from a medical source (OR=0.59, p=0.03), and ever test for HIV (OR=0.17, p<0.01). Sharers were more likely to report depressive symptoms (OR=3.49, p<0.01), lower scores on the family support scale (mean difference 0.41, p=0.01) and decision-making confidence scale (mean difference 0.38, p<0.01), and greater risk-taking (mean difference -0.49, p<0.01) than non-sharers. In a multivariable logistic regression, sharers were less likely to have graduated high school (OR=0.33, p<0.01) and have been tested for HIV (OR=0.12, p<0.01) and were more likely to have been arrested in the past year (OR=2.3, p<0.01), get needles from a street source (OR=3.87, p<0.01), report male-to-male sex (OR=7.01, p<0.01), and have depressive symptoms (OR=2.36, p=0.02) and increased risk-taking (OR=1.78, p=0.01). ^ Conclusions. IDUs that shared needles are different from those that did not, reporting lower socioeconomic status, increased sexual and risk behaviors, increased depressive symptoms and increased risk-taking. These findings suggest that intervention programs that also address these demographic, behavioral, and psychosocial factors may be more successful in decreasing needle sharing among this population.^

Production sharing, demand spillovers and CO2 emissions : the case of Chinese regions in GVCs

This study adopts the perspective of demand spillovers to provide new insights regarding Chinese domestic-regions' production position in global value chains and their associated CO2 emissions. To this end, we constructed a new type of World Input-Output Database in which China's domestic interregional input-output table for 2007 is endogenously embedded. Then, the pattern of China's regional demand spillovers across both domestic regions and countries are revealed by employing this new database. These results were further connected to endowments theory, which help to make sense of the empirical results. It is found that China's regions locate relatively upstream in GVCs, and had CO2 emissions in net exports, which were entirely predicted by the environmental extended HOV model. Our study points to micro policy instruments to combat climate change, for example, the tax reform for energy inputs that helps to change the production pattern thus has impact on trade pattern and so forth.

Heterogeneous firms and cost sharing in China's marketplaces

This study extends Melitz's model with heterogeneous firms by introducing shared fixed costs in a marketplace. It aims to explain heterogeneous firms' choice between traditional marketplaces and modern distribution channels on the basis of their productivities. The results reveal that the co-existence of a traditional marketplace and modern distribution channels improves social welfare. In addition, a deregulation policy for firm entry outside a marketplace and accumulation of human capital are factors that contribute to improve the social welfare.

Risk sharing with Multilateral Financial Institutions in infrastructure and energy project financing : effect on capital relief for commercial banks

(Matsukawa and Habeck, 2007) analyse the main instruments for risk mitigation in infrastructure financing with Multilateral Financial Institutions (MFIs). Their review coincided with the global financial crisis of 2007-08, and is highly relevant in current times considering the sovereign debt crisis, the lack of available capital and the increases in bank regulation in Western economies. The current macroeconomic environment has seen a slowdown in the level of finance for infrastructure projects, as they pose a higher credit risk given their requirements for long term investments. The rationale for this work is to look for innovative solutions that are focused on the credit risk mitigation of infrastructure and energy projects whilst optimizing the economic capital allocation for commercial banks. This objective is achieved through risk-sharing with MFIs and looking for capital relief in project finance transactions. This research finds out the answer to the main question: "What is the impact of risk-sharing with MFIs on project finance transactions to increase their efficiency and viability?", and is developed from the perspective of a commercial bank assessing the economic capital used and analysing the relevant variables for it: Probability of Default, Loss Given Default and Recovery Rates, (Altman, 2010). An overview of project finance for the infrastructure and energy sectors in terms of the volume of transactions worldwide is outlined, along with a summary of risk-sharing financing with MFIs. A review of the current regulatory framework beneath risk-sharing in structured finance with MFIs is also analysed. From here, the impact of risk-sharing and the diversification effect in infrastructure and energy projects is assessed, from the perspective of economic capital allocation for a commercial bank. CreditMetrics (J. P. Morgan, 1997) is applied over an existing well diversified portfolio of project finance infrastructure and energy investments, working with the main risk capital measures: economic capital, RAROC, and EVA. The conclusions of this research show that economic capital allocation on a portfolio of project finance along with risk-sharing with MFIs have a huge impact on capital relief whilst increasing performance profitability for commercial banks. There is an outstanding diversification effect due to the portfolio, which is combined with risk mitigation and an improvement in recovery rates through Partial Credit Guarantees issued by MFIs. A stress test scenario analysis is applied to the current assumptions and credit risk model, considering a downgrade in the rating for the commercial bank (lender) and an increase of default in emerging countries, presenting a direct impact on economic capital, through an increase in expected loss and a decrease in performance profitability. Getting capital relief through risk-sharing makes it more viable for commercial banks to finance infrastructure and energy projects, with the beneficial effect of a direct impact of these investments on GDP growth and employment. The main contribution of this work is to promote a strategic economic capital allocation in infrastructure and energy financing through innovative risk-sharing with MFIs and economic pricing to create economic value added for banks, and to allow the financing of more infrastructure and energy projects. This work suggests several topics for further research in relation to issues analysed. (Matsukawa and Habeck, 2007) analizan los principales instrumentos de mitigación de riesgos en las Instituciones Financieras Multilaterales (IFMs) para la financiación de infraestructuras. Su presentación coincidió con el inicio de la crisis financiera en Agosto de 2007, y sus consecuencias persisten en la actualidad, destacando la deuda soberana en economías desarrolladas y los problemas capitalización de los bancos. Este entorno macroeconómico ha ralentizado la financiación de proyectos de infraestructuras. El actual trabajo de investigación tiene su motivación en la búsqueda de soluciones para la financiación de proyectos de infraestructuras y de energía, mitigando los riesgos inherentes, con el objeto de reducir el consumo de capital económico en los bancos financiadores. Este objetivo se alcanza compartiendo el riesgo de la financiación con IFMs, a través de estructuras de risk-sharing. La investigación responde la pregunta: "Cuál es el impacto de risk-sharing con IFMs, en la financiación de proyectos para aumentar su eficiencia y viabilidad?". El trabajo se desarrolla desde el enfoque de un banco comercial, estimando el consumo de capital económico en la financiación de proyectos y analizando las principales variables del riesgo de crédito, Probability of Default, Loss Given Default and Recovery Rates, (Altman, 2010). La investigación presenta las cifras globales de Project Finance en los sectores de infraestructuras y de energía, y analiza el marco regulatorio internacional en relación al consumo de capital económico en la financiación de proyectos en los que participan IFMs. A continuación, el trabajo modeliza una cartera real, bien diversificada, de Project Finance de infraestructuras y de energía, aplicando la metodología CreditMet- rics (J. P. Morgan, 1997). Su objeto es estimar el consumo de capital económico y la rentabilidad de la cartera de proyectos a través del RAROC y EVA. La modelización permite estimar el efecto diversificación y la liberación de capital económico consecuencia del risk-sharing. Los resultados muestran el enorme impacto del efecto diversificación de la cartera, así como de las garantías parciales de las IFMs que mitigan riesgos, mejoran el recovery rate de los proyectos y reducen el consumo de capital económico para el banco comercial, mientras aumentan la rentabilidad, RAROC, y crean valor económico, EVA. En escenarios económicos de inestabilidad, empeoramiento del rating de los bancos, aumentos de default en los proyectos y de correlación en las carteras, hay un impacto directo en el capital económico y en la pérdida de rentabilidad. La liberación de capital económico, como se plantea en la presente investigación, permitirá financiar más proyectos de infraestructuras y de energía, lo que repercutirá en un mayor crecimiento económico y creación de empleo. La principal contribución de este trabajo es promover la gestión activa del capital económico en la financiación de infraestructuras y de proyectos energéticos, a través de estructuras innovadoras de risk-sharing con IFMs y de creación de valor económico en los bancos comerciales, lo que mejoraría su eficiencia y capitalización. La aportación metodológica del trabajo se convierte por su originalidad en una contribución, que sugiere y facilita nuevas líneas de investigación académica en las principales variables del riesgo de crédito que afectan al capital económico en la financiación de proyectos.

An architectural model for software testing lesson learned systems

Software testing is a key aspect of software reliability and quality assurance in a context where software development constantly has to overcome mammoth challenges in a continuously changing environment. One of the characteristics of software testing is that it has a large intellectual capital component and can thus benefit from the use of the experience gained from past projects. Software testing can, then, potentially benefit from solutions provided by the knowledge management discipline. There are in fact a number of proposals concerning effective knowledge management related to several software engineering processes. Objective: We defend the use of a lesson learned system for software testing. The reason is that such a system is an effective knowledge management resource enabling testers and managers to take advantage of the experience locked away in the brains of the testers. To do this, the experience has to be gathered, disseminated and reused. Method: After analyzing the proposals for managing software testing experience, significant weaknesses have been detected in the current systems of this type. The architectural model proposed here for lesson learned systems is designed to try to avoid these weaknesses. This model (i) defines the structure of the software testing lessons learned; (ii) sets up procedures for lesson learned management; and (iii) supports the design of software tools to manage the lessons learned. Results: A different approach, based on the management of the lessons learned that software testing engineers gather from everyday experience, with two basic goals: usefulness and applicability. Conclusion: The architectural model proposed here lays the groundwork to overcome the obstacles to sharing and reusing experience gained in the software testing and test management. As such, it provides guidance for developing software testing lesson learned systems.

A model for integrating learning object repository resources into web videoconference services

Reusing Learning Objects saves time and reduce development costs. Hence, achieving their interoperability in multiple contexts is essential when creating a Learning Object Repository. On the other hand, novel web videoconference services are available due to technological advancements. Several benefits can be gained by integrating Learning Objects into these services. For instance, they can allow sharing, co-viewing and synchronized co-browsing of these resources at the same time that provide real time communication. However, several efforts need to be undertaken to achieve the interoperability with these systems. In this paper, we propose a model to integrate the resources of the Learning Object Repositories into web videoconference services. The experience of applying this model in a real e-Learning scenario achieving interoperability with two different web videoconference services is also described.

Analysis of the Optimal Sharing of Construction Risk in Public Procurement Contracts

This paper discusses a model based on the agency theory to analyze the optimal transfer of construction risk in public works contracts. The base assumption is that of a contract between a principal (public authority) and an agent (firm), where the payment mechanism is linear and contains an incentive mechanism to enhance the effort of the agent to reduce construction costs. A theoretical model is proposed starting from a cost function with a random component and assuming that both the public authority and the firm are risk averse. The main outcome of the paper is that the optimal transfer of construction risk will be lower when the variance of errors in cost forecast, the risk aversion of the firm and the marginal cost of public funds are larger, while the optimal transfer of construction risk will grow when the variance of errors in cost monitoring and the risk aversion of the public authority are larger

Net Neutrality and Mandatory Network-Sharing: How to disconnect the continent. CEPS Policy Brief No. 309, 18 December 2013

A lively debate emerged on the proposed “Connected Continent” legislative package presented by the European Commission in September 2013. The package contains a proposed rule on the ‘open Internet’, which was heavily discussed in European Parliament hearings in early December. This commentary argues that while the proposed rule is in principle balanced and appealing, it is utterly impractical due to the enormous uncertainty that its application would entail. At the same time, the rule is very far from what neutrality proponents have argued for almost a decade: rather than the place for internet freedom, it would transform the Web into a place requiring constant micro-management and tutoring of user behaviour. Both arguments lead to the conclusion that the current proposal should be at once reformed and analysed under a more holistic lens. On the one hand, Europe should launch an ambitious project for the future, converged infrastructure by mobilising resources and reforming rules to encourage investment into ubiquitous, converged, ‘always on’ connectivity. On the other hand, enhanced legal certainty for broadband investment could justify a more neutrality-oriented approach to traffic management practices on the Internet. The author proposes a new approach to Internet regulation which, altogether, will lead to a more balanced and sustainable model for the future, without jeopardising user freedom.

Should I share this? : support awareness of social sharing practice that might compromise online privacy and reputation

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A Kinetic Vlasov Model for Plasma Simulation Using Discontinuous Galerkin Method on Many-Core Architectures

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-03

The process of sharing social support in cyberspace

Mutual support is an interactional communication process. Taking an interactional approach to support requires group participants be viewed not only as targets and recipients but also as sources and providers of various types of support. An analysis was performed on the interactions of a group listserv and model of online interactional support. The aim was to explore the communication process children follow. The analysis revealed self-disclosure was used in the support group in three distinct ways. Its function for the support recipient is to initiate a transactional relationship with another member for the purpose of attracting social support through the open expression of concerns and frustrations. It is then used by the support provider to demonstrate that coping is possible for the recipient through the reciprocal self-disclosure of similar concerns and situations with which the member has successfully dealt. The third use of self-disclosure was to share reciprocal social companionship relationships.

The management of interdependence and the sharing of vision by micro-finance agencies for new and emerging SMEs

The purpose of this paper is to conceptualise a theoretical model that clarifies the variations in both processes for sharing vision and interdependence of the lender and the SME owner in micro-finance. Processes for sharing vision and interdependence are possible predictors of the effective tacit and explicit knowledge generation/utilization of a micro-finance agency – SME owner relationship. For new and emerging SMEs the micro-finance agency can provide a critical role in their development. Micro-finance agencies can provide a mechanism in economic development that enables SMEs to have greater speed to markets. The focus of this paper is on the relationship between the micro-finance lending officer and the SME owner. Specifically, the model developed in this paper informs understanding the nature of knowledge generation/utilization between micro-finance agencies and SMEs. Effective generation/utilization facilitates the assessment of the risk for investment. The model clarifies the variations between interdependence and the development of processes for sharing of vision. When you have high interdependence (characterised by good cooperation) and effective processes for sharing of vision, an environment of effective knowledge generation/utilization is likely to be created between the micro-finance agency and the SME owner. The model proposes that the effective management of both tacit and explicit knowledge between the micro-finance agency and SMEs supports them to reach their markets. Implications of this research for SMEs and micro-finance agencies include the increase of knowledge and understanding of SME processes.

Inspiring lecturers: sharing e-learning practice through european case studies

What motivates a university lecturer to consider introducing a new e-learning approach to their educational practice? Accounts of e-learning practice can invite discussion and reflection on the approaches taken, reinforcement of a particular model, connection with the experience of others, vicarious learning opportunities and glimpses into tacit knowledge. If these examples provoke thinking, could they have the ‘sticky qualities’, the memorable inspiration and ideas that move us to action, when we observe the practice of others? (Szulanski, 2003) “Case studies have the capacity to inspire but also to provoke and to challenge.” (JISC, 2004) This paper will discuss a process followed for sharing best practices of e-learning. It will explain how good practices were identified and gathered by the EUNIS E-Learning Task Force collaboration, using a database and a weblog (EUNIC, 2008). It will examine the methods used for the developing and compiling of the practices and the communication of these. Actual examples of some of the case studies gathered will be included in an appendix. Suggestions of ways to develop this process further and the tangible benefits identified will be examined to ask if effective practice can also become embedded practice.