Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

Cross-validated maximum likelihood enhances crystallographic simulated annealing refinement

Recently, the target function for crystallographic refinement has been improved through a maximum likelihood analysis, which makes proper allowance for the effects of data quality, model errors, and incompleteness. The maximum likelihood target reduces the significance of false local minima during the refinement process, but it does not completely eliminate them, necessitating the use of stochastic optimization methods such as simulated annealing for poor initial models. It is shown that the combination of maximum likelihood with cross-validation, which reduces overfitting, and simulated annealing by torsion angle molecular dynamics, which simplifies the conformational search problem, results in a major improvement of the radius of convergence of refinement and the accuracy of the refined structure. Torsion angle molecular dynamics and the maximum likelihood target function interact synergistically, the combination of both methods being significantly more powerful than each method individually. This is demonstrated in realistic test cases at two typical minimum Bragg spacings (dmin = 2.0 and 2.8 Å, respectively), illustrating the broad applicability of the combined method. In an application to the refinement of a new crystal structure, the combined method automatically corrected a mistraced loop in a poor initial model, moving the backbone by 4 Å.

Validation and refinement of survival models for liver retransplantation

Orthotopic liver retransplantation (re-OLT) is highly controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity of a recently developed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) multivariate model using an independent cohort of patients undergoing re-OLT outside the United States, to determine whether incorporation of other variables that were incomplete in the UNOS registry would provide additional prognostic information, to develop new models combining data sets from both cohorts, and to evaluate the validity of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in patients undergoing re-OLT. Two hundred eighty-one adult patients undergoing re-OLT (between 1986 and 1999) at 6 foreign transplant centers comprised the validation cohort. We found good agreement between actual survival and predicted survival in the validation cohort; 1-year patient survival rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (as assigned by the original UNOS model) were 72%, 68%, and 36%, respectively (P < .0001). In the patients for whom the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time was available, MELD correlated with outcome following re-OLT; the median MELD scores for patients surviving at least 90 days compared with those dying within 90 days were 20.75 versus 25.9, respectively (P = .004). Utilizing both patient cohorts (n = 979), a new model, based on recipient age, total serum bilirubin, creatinine, and interval to re-OLT, was constructed (whole model χ(2) = 105, P < .0001). Using the c-statistic with 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality as the end points, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 4 different models were compared. In conclusion, prospective validation and use of these models as adjuncts to clinical decision making in the management of patients being considered for re-OLT are warranted.

Grain refinement efficiency and mechanism of aluminium carbide in Mg-Al alloys

Detailed microscopic examination using optical and electron microscopes suggests that Al4C3, often observed in the central regions of magnesium grains on polished sections, is a potent substrate for primary Mg. Calculations of the crystallographic relationships between magnesium and Al4C3 further support the experimental observations. (c) 2005 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of grain refinement and cooling rate on the hot tearing of wrought aluminium alloys

Using modifications to the Rappaz-Drezet-Gremaud hot tearing model, and using empirical equations developed for grain size and dendrite arm spacing (DAS) on the addition of grain refiner for a range of cooling rates, the effect of grain refinement and cooling rate on hot tearing susceptibility has been analysed. It was found that grain refinement decreased the grain size and made the grain morphology more globular. Therefore refining the grain size of an equiaxed dendritic grain decreased the hot tearing susceptibility. However, when the alloy was grain refined such that globular grain morphologies where obtained, further grain refinement increased the hot tearing susceptibility. Increasing the cooling decreased the grain size and made the grain morphology more dendritic and therefore increased the likelihood of hot tearing. The effect was particularly strong for equiaxed dendritic grain morphologies; hence grain refinement is increasingly important at high cooling rates to obtain more globular grain morphologies to reduce the hot tearing susceptibility.

Verifying data refinements using a model checker

In this paper, we consider how refinements between state-based specifications (e.g., written in Z) can be checked by use of a model checker. Specifically, we are interested in the verification of downward and upward simulations which are the standard approach to verifying refinements in state-based notations. We show how downward and upward simulations can be checked using existing temporal logic model checkers. In particular, we show how the branching time temporal logic CTL can be used to encode the standard simulation conditions. We do this for both a blocking, or guarded, interpretation of operations (often used when specifying reactive systems) as well as the more common non-blocking interpretation of operations used in many state-based specification languages (for modelling sequential systems). The approach is general enough to use with any state-based specification language, and we illustrate how refinements between Z specifications can be checked using the SAL CTL model checker using a small example.

Refinement laws for verifying library subroutine adaptation

In component-based software engineering programs are constructed from pre-defined software library modules. However, if the library's subroutines do not exactly match the programmer's requirements, the subroutines' code must be adapted accordingly. For this process to be acceptable in safety or mission-critical applications, where all code must be proven correct, it must be possible to verify the correctness of the adaptations themselves. In this paper we show how refinement theory can be used to model typical adaptation steps and to define the conditions that must be proven to verify that a library subroutine has been adapted correctly.

Continuous action system refinement

Action systems are a framework for reasoning about discrete reactive systems. Back, Petre and Porres have extended these action systems to continuous action systems, which can be. used to model hybrid systems. In this paper we define a refinement relation, and develop practical data refinement rules for continuous action systems. The meaning of continuous action systems is expressed in terms of a mapping from continuous action systems to action systems. First, we present a new mapping from continuous act ion systems to action systems, such that Back's definition of trace refinement is correct with respect to it. Second, we present a stream semantics that is compatible with the trace semantics, but is preferable to it because it is more general. Although action system trace refinement rules are applicable to continuous action systems with a stream semantics, they are not complete. Finally, we introduce a new data refinement rule that is valid with respect to the stream semantics and can be used to prove refinements that are not possible in the trace semantics, and we analyse the completeness of our new rule in conjunction with the existing trace refinement rules.

Towards a refinement calculus for concurrent real-time programs

We define a language and a predicative semantics to model concurrent real-time programs. We consider different communication paradigms between the concurrent components of a program: communication via shared variables and asynchronous message passing (for different models of channels). The semantics is the basis for a refinement calculus to derive machine-independent concurrent real-time programs from specifications. We give some examples of refinement laws that deal with concurrency.

Automatic refinement of constructive solid geometry models

Geometric information relating to most engineering products is available in the form of orthographic drawings or 2D data files. For many recent computer based applications, such as Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM), these data are required in the form of a sophisticated model based on Constructive Solid Geometry (CSG) concepts. A recent novel technique in this area transfers 2D engineering drawings directly into a 3D solid model called `the first approximation'. In many cases, however, this does not represent the real object. In this thesis, a new method is proposed and developed to enhance this model. This method uses the notion of expanding an object in terms of other solid objects, which are either primitive or first approximation models. To achieve this goal, in addition to the prepared subroutine to calculate the first approximation model of input data, two other wireframe models are found for extraction of sub-objects. One is the wireframe representation on input, and the other is the wireframe of the first approximation model. A new fast method is developed for the latter special case wireframe, which is named the `first approximation wireframe model'. This method avoids the use of a solid modeller. Detailed descriptions of algorithms and implementation procedures are given. In these techniques utilisation of dashed line information is also considered in improving the model. Different practical examples are given to illustrate the functioning of the program. Finally, a recursive method is employed to automatically modify the output model towards the real object. Some suggestions for further work are made to increase the domain of objects covered, and provide a commercially usable package. It is concluded that the current method promises the production of accurate models for a large class of objects.

A rule based model for the objective determination of the e-business requirements of a manufacturing organisation

The starting point of this research was the belief that manufacturing and similar industries need help with the concept of e-business, especially in assessing the relevance of possible e-business initiatives. The research hypotheses was that it should be possible to produce a systematic model that defines, at a useful level of detail, the probable e-business requirements of an organisation based on objective criteria with an accuracy of 85%-90%. This thesis describes the development and validation of such a model. A preliminary model was developed from a variety of sources, including a survey of current and planned e-business activity and representative examples of e-business material produced by e-business solution providers. The model was subject to a process of testing and refinement based on recursive case studies, with controls over the improving accuracy and stability of the model. Useful conclusions were also possible as to the relevance of e-business functions to the case study participants themselves. Techniques were evolved to synthesise the e-business requirements of an organisation and present them at a management summary level of detail. The results of applying these techniques to all the case studies used in this research were discussed. The conclusion of the research was that the case study methodology employed was successful. A model was achieved suitable for practical application in a manufacturing organisation requiring help with a requirements definition process.

Towards a multilevel model of the high performance work systems–workplace safety relationship

Human Resource (HR) systems and practices generally referred to as High Performance Work Practices (HPWPs), (Huselid, 1995) (sometimes termed High Commitment Work Practices or High Involvement Work Practices) have attracted much research attention in past decades. Although many conceptualizations of the construct have been proposed, there is general agreement that HPWPs encompass a bundle or set of HR practices including sophisticated staffing, intensive training and development, incentive-based compensation, performance management, initiatives aimed at increasing employee participation and involvement, job safety and security, and work design (e.g. Pfeffer, 1998). It is argued that these practices either directly and indirectly influence the extent to which employees’ knowledge, skills, abilities, and other characteristics are utilized in the organization. Research spanning nearly 20 years has provided considerable empirical evidence for relationships between HPWPs and various measures of performance including increased productivity, improved customer service, and reduced turnover (e.g. Guthrie, 2001; Belt & Giles, 2009). With the exception of a few papers (e.g., Laursen &Foss, 2003), this literature appears to lack focus on how HPWPs influence or foster more innovative-related attitudes and behaviours, extra role behaviors, and performance. This situation exists despite the vast evidence demonstrating the importance of innovation, proactivity, and creativity in its various forms to individual, group, and organizational performance outcomes. Several pertinent issues arise when considering HPWPs and their relationship to innovation and performance outcomes. At a broad level is the issue of which HPWPs are related to which innovation-related variables. Another issue not well identified in research relates to employees’ perceptions of HPWPs: does an employee actually perceive the HPWP –outcomes relationship? No matter how well HPWPs are designed, if they are not perceived and experienced by employees to be effective or worthwhile then their likely success in achieving positive outcomes is limited. At another level, research needs to consider the mechanisms through which HPWPs influence –innovation and performance. The research question here relates to what possible mediating variables are important to the success or failure of HPWPs in impacting innovative behaviours and attitudes and what are the potential process considerations? These questions call for theory refinement and the development of more comprehensive models of the HPWP-innovation/performance relationship that include intermediate linkages and boundary conditions (Ferris, Hochwarter, Buckley, Harrell-Cook, & Frink, 1999). While there are many calls for this type of research to be made a high priority, to date, researchers have made few inroads into answering these questions. This symposium brings together researchers from Australia, Europe, Asia and Africa to examine these various questions relating to the HPWP-innovation-performance relationship. Each paper discusses a HPWP and potential variables that can facilitate or hinder the effects of these practices on innovation- and performance- related outcomes. The first paper by Johnston and Becker explores the HPWPs in relation to work design in a disaster response organization that shifts quickly from business as usual to rapid response. The researchers examine how the enactment of the organizational response is devolved to groups and individuals. Moreover, they assess motivational characteristics that exist in dual work designs (normal operations and periods of disaster activation) and the implications for innovation. The second paper by Jørgensen reports the results of an investigation into training and development practices and innovative work behaviors (IWBs) in Danish organizations. Research on how to design and implement training and development initiatives to support IWBs and innovation in general is surprisingly scant and often vague. This research investigates the mechanisms by which training and development initiatives influence employee behaviors associated with innovation, and provides insights into how training and development can be used effectively by firms to attract and retain valuable human capital in knowledge-intensive firms. The next two papers in this symposium consider the role of employee perceptions of HPWPs and their relationships to innovation-related variables and performance. First, Bish and Newton examine perceptions of the characteristics and awareness of occupational health and safety (OHS) practices and their relationship to individual level adaptability and proactivity in an Australian public service organization. The authors explore the role of perceived supportive and visionary leadership and its impact on the OHS policy-adaptability/proactivity relationship. The study highlights the positive main effects of awareness and characteristics of OHS polices, and supportive and visionary leadership on individual adaptability and proactivity. It also highlights the important moderating effects of leadership in the OHS policy-adaptability/proactivity relationship. Okhawere and Davis present a conceptual model developed for a Nigerian study in the safety-critical oil and gas industry that takes a multi-level approach to the HPWP-safety relationship. Adopting a social exchange perspective, they propose that at the organizational level, organizational climate for safety mediates the relationship between enacted HPWS’s and organizational safety performance (prescribed and extra role performance). At the individual level, the experience of HPWP impacts on individual behaviors and attitudes in organizations, here operationalized as safety knowledge, skills and motivation, and these influence individual safety performance. However these latter relationships are moderated by organizational climate for safety. A positive organizational climate for safety strengthens the relationship between individual safety behaviors and attitudes and individual-level safety performance, therefore suggesting a cross-level boundary condition. The model includes both safety performance (behaviors) and organizational level safety outcomes, operationalized as accidents, injuries, and fatalities. The final paper of this symposium by Zhang and Liu explores leader development and relationship between transformational leadership and employee creativity and innovation in China. The authors further develop a model that incorporates the effects of extrinsic motivation (pay for performance: PFP) and employee collectivism in the leader-employee creativity relationship. The papers’ contributions include the incorporation of a PFP effect on creativity as moderator, rather than predictor in most studies; the exploration of the PFP effect from both fairness and strength perspectives; the advancement of knowledge on the impact of collectivism on the leader- employee creativity link. Last, this is the first study to examine three-way interactional effects among leader-member exchange (LMX), PFP and collectivism, thus, enriches our understanding of promoting employee creativity. In conclusion, this symposium draws upon the findings of four empirical studies and one conceptual study to provide an insight into understanding how different variables facilitate or potentially hinder the influence various HPWPs on innovation and performance. We will propose a number of questions for further consideration and discussion. The symposium will address the Conference Theme of ‘Capitalism in Question' by highlighting how HPWPs can promote financial health and performance of organizations while maintaining a high level of regard and respect for employees and organizational stakeholders. Furthermore, the focus on different countries and cultures explores the overall research question in relation to different modes or stages of development of capitalism.

A low mortality, high morbidity Reduced Intensity Status Epilepticus (RISE) model of epilepsy and epileptogenesis in the rat

Animal models of acquired epilepsies aim to provide researchers with tools for use in understanding the processes underlying the acquisition, development and establishment of the disorder. Typically, following a systemic or local insult, vulnerable brain regions undergo a process leading to the development, over time, of spontaneous recurrent seizures. Many such models make use of a period of intense seizure activity or status epilepticus, and this may be associated with high mortality and/or global damage to large areas of the brain. These undesirable elements have driven improvements in the design of chronic epilepsy models, for example the lithium-pilocarpine epileptogenesis model. Here, we present an optimised model of chronic epilepsy that reduces mortality to 1% whilst retaining features of high epileptogenicity and development of spontaneous seizures. Using local field potential recordings from hippocampus in vitro as a probe, we show that the model does not result in significant loss of neuronal network function in area CA3 and, instead, subtle alterations in network dynamics appear during a process of epileptogenesis, which eventually leads to a chronic seizure state. The model’s features of very low mortality and high morbidity in the absence of global neuronal damage offer the chance to explore the processes underlying epileptogenesis in detail, in a population of animals not defined by their resistance to seizures, whilst acknowledging and being driven by the 3Rs (Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of animal use in scientific procedures) principles.