Travel time prediction on signalised urban arterials by applying SARIMA modelling on Bluetooth data

Travel time prediction has long been the topic of transportation research. But most relevant prediction models in the literature are limited to motorways. Travel time prediction on arterial networks is challenging due to involving traffic signals and significant variability of individual vehicle travel time. The limited availability of traffic data from arterial networks makes travel time prediction even more challenging. Recently, there has been significant interest of exploiting Bluetooth data for travel time estimation. This research analysed the real travel time data collected by the Brisbane City Council using the Bluetooth technology on arterials. Databases, including experienced average daily travel time are created and classified for approximately 8 months. Thereafter, based on data characteristics, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling is applied on the database for short-term travel time prediction. The SARMIA model not only takes the previous continuous lags into account, but also uses the values from the same time of previous days for travel time prediction. This is carried out by defining a seasonality coefficient which improves the accuracy of travel time prediction in linear models. The accuracy, robustness and transferability of the model are evaluated through comparing the real and predicted values on three sites within Brisbane network. The results contain the detailed validation for different prediction horizons (5 min to 90 minutes). The model performance is evaluated mainly on congested periods and compared to the naive technique of considering the historical average.

What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

1. Expert knowledge continues to gain recognition as a valuable source of information in a wide range of research applications. Despite recent advances in defining expert knowledge, comparatively little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors, and thereby, to quantify an individual’s expertise. 2. We present a systems approach to describing expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their interrelationships, and allows quantification of an individual’s expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For the purpose of illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with professional taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network were determined by a second set of senior taxonomists. This second set of experts (i.e. supra-experts) also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was then assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states in the discipline of taxonomy. Hypothetical career states were used to incorporate the greatest possible differences in career states and provide an opportunity to test the model against known inputs. 3. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher-order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra-experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite differences in the node weights provided by our supra-experts, there was remarkably good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had built into them. 4. This systems approach provides a novel way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it is desirable to understand components of expertise.

Assessment of quality defects in macadamia kernels using NIR spectroscopy

Spectral data were collected of intact and ground kernels using 3 instruments (using Si-PbS, Si, and InGaAs detectors), operating over different areas of the spectrum (between 400 and 2500 nm) and employing transmittance, interactance, and reflectance sample presentation strategies. Kernels were assessed on the basis of oil and water content, and with respect to the defect categories of insect damage, rancidity, discoloration, mould growth, germination, and decomposition. Predictive model performance statistics for oil content models were acceptable on all instruments (R2 > 0.98; RMSECV < 2.5%, which is similar to reference analysis error), although that for the instrument employing reflectance optics was inferior to models developed for the instruments employing transmission optics. The spectral positions for calibration coefficients were consistent with absorbance due to the third overtones of CH2 stretching. Calibration models for moisture content in ground samples were acceptable on all instruments (R2 > 0.97; RMSECV < 0.2%), whereas calibration models for intact kernels were relatively poor. Calibration coefficients were more highly weighted around 1360, 740 and 840 nm, consistent with absorbance due to overtones of O-H stretching and combination. Intact kernels with brown centres or rancidity could be discriminated from each other and from sound kernels using principal component analysis. Part kernels affected by insect damage, discoloration, mould growth, germination, and decomposition could be discriminated from sound kernels. However, discrimination among these defect categories was not distinct and could not be validated on an independent set. It is concluded that there is good potential for a low cost Si photodiode array instrument to be employed to identify some quality defects of intact macadamia kernels and to quantify oil and moisture content of kernels in the process laboratory and for oil content in-line. Further work is required to examine the robustness of predictive models across different populations, including growing districts, cultivars and times of harvest.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

Estimation of soil hydraulic properties and their uncertainty: comparison between laboratory and field experiment

Often the soil hydraulic parameters are obtained by the inversion of measured data (e.g. soil moisture, pressure head, and cumulative infiltration, etc.). However, the inverse problem in unsaturated zone is ill-posed due to various reasons, and hence the parameters become non-unique. The presence of multiple soil layers brings the additional complexities in the inverse modelling. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate (GLUE) is a useful approach to estimate the parameters and their uncertainty when dealing with soil moisture dynamics which is a highly non-linear problem. Because the estimated parameters depend on the modelling scale, inverse modelling carried out on laboratory data and field data may provide independent estimates. The objective of this paper is to compare the parameters and their uncertainty estimated through experiments in the laboratory and in the field and to assess which of the soil hydraulic parameters are independent of the experiment. The first two layers in the field site are characterized by Loamy sand and Loamy. The mean soil moisture and pressure head at three depths are measured with an interval of half hour for a period of 1 week using the evaporation method for the laboratory experiment, whereas soil moisture at three different depths (60, 110, and 200 cm) is measured with an interval of 1 h for 2 years for the field experiment. A one-dimensional soil moisture model on the basis of the finite difference method was used. The calibration and validation are approximately for 1 year each. The model performance was found to be good with root mean square error (RMSE) varying from 2 to 4 cm(3) cm(-3). It is found from the two experiments that mean and uncertainty in the saturated soil moisture (theta(s)) and shape parameter (n) of van Genuchten equations are similar for both the soil types. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Direct mdct domain psychoacoustic modeling

We extend the recently proposed spectral integration based psychoacoustic model for sinusoidal distortions to the MDCT domain. The estimated masking threshold additionally depends on the sub-band spectral flatness measure of the signal which accounts for the non- sinusoidal distortion introduced by masking. The expressions for masking threshold are derived and the validity of the proposed model is established through perceptual transparency test of audio clips. Test results indicate that we do achieve transparent quality reconstruction with the new model. Performance of the model is compared with MPEG psychoacoustic models with respect to the estimated perceptual entropy (PE). The results show that the proposed model predicts a lower PE than other models.

Scientific rationale toward cupola design

Numerous improvements in cupola design and operation have been made in the past to increase productivity, spout temperature and fuel efficiency. However, these improvements have been based on practice and experience. The present work establishes a scientific rationale for cupola design and operation using a mathematical model. The improved performance of a divided-blast cupola over the conventional one has been successfully explained by the model. Performance of a cupola, as influenced by the important design parameter--the distance of separation between the two rows of tuyeres and operational parameters, such as size of coke and metallic charge, blast rate and charge level--was analyzed. For a divided-blast cupola, an optimum distance of 800-900 mm separation between the two rows of tuyeres was found to be ideal, irrespective of the size of cupola.

Using long time series of agricultural-derived nitrates for estimating catchment transit times

The estimation of water and solute transit times in catchments is crucial for predicting the response of hydrosystems to external forcings (climatic or anthropogenic). The hydrogeochemical signatures of tracers (either natural or anthropogenic) in streams have been widely used to estimate transit times in catchments as they integrate the various processes at stake. However, most of these tracers are well suited for catchments with mean transit times lower than about 4-5 years. Since the second half of the 20th century, the intensification of agriculture led to a general increase of the nitrogen load in rivers. As nitrate is mainly transported by groundwater in agricultural catchments, this signal can be used to estimate transit times greater than several years, even if nitrate is not a conservative tracer. Conceptual hydrological models can be used to estimate catchment transit times provided their consistency is demonstrated, based on their ability to simulate the stream chemical signatures at various time scales and catchment internal processes such as N storage in groundwater. The objective of this study was to assess if a conceptual lumped model was able to simulate the observed patterns of nitrogen concentration, at various time scales, from seasonal to pluriannual and thus if it was relevant to estimate the nitrogen transit times in headwater catchments. A conceptual lumped model, representing shallow groundwater flow as two parallel linear stores with double porosity, and riparian processes by a constant nitrogen removal function, was applied on two paired agricultural catchments which belong to the Research Observatory ORE AgrHys. The Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach was used to estimate parameter values and uncertainties. The model performance was assessed on (i) its ability to simulate the contrasted patterns of stream flow and stream nitrate concentrations at seasonal and inter-annual time scales, (ii) its ability to simulate the patterns observed in groundwater at the same temporal scales, and (iii) the consistency of long-term simulations using the calibrated model and the general pattern of the nitrate concentration increase in the region since the beginning of the intensification of agriculture in the 1960s. The simulated nitrate transit times were found more sensitive to climate variability than to parameter uncertainty, and average values were found to be consistent with results from others studies in the same region involving modeling and groundwater dating. This study shows that a simple model can be used to simulate the main dynamics of nitrogen in an intensively polluted catchment and then be used to estimate the transit times of these pollutants in the system which is crucial to guide mitigation plans design and assessment. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis.

As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California.

Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2~s-2.0~s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period ($>$ 2.0~s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms.

Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

Kinetic modelling of growth and storage molecule production in microalgae under mixotrophic and autotrophic conditions.

In order to improve algal biofuel production on a commercial-scale, an understanding of algal growth and fuel molecule accumulation is essential. A mathematical model is presented that describes biomass growth and storage molecule (TAG lipid and starch) accumulation in the freshwater microalga Chlorella vulgaris, under mixotrophic and autotrophic conditions. Biomass growth was formulated based on the Droop model, while the storage molecule production was calculated based on the carbon balance within the algal cells incorporating carbon fixation via photosynthesis, organic carbon uptake and functional biomass growth. The model was validated with experimental growth data of C. vulgaris and was found to fit the data well. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model performance was highly sensitive to variations in parameters associated with nutrient factors, photosynthesis and light intensity. The maximum productivity and biomass concentration were achieved under mixotrophic nitrogen sufficient conditions, while the maximum storage content was obtained under mixotrophic nitrogen deficient conditions.

Kinetic modelling of growth and storage molecule production in microalgae under mixotrophic and autotrophic conditions

In order to improve algal biofuel production on a commercial-scale, an understanding of algal growth and fuel molecule accumulation is essential. A mathematical model is presented that describes biomass growth and storage molecule (TAG lipid and starch) accumulation in the freshwater microalga Chlorella vulgaris, under mixotrophic and autotrophic conditions. Biomass growth was formulated based on the Droop model, while the storage molecule production was calculated based on the carbon balance within the algal cells incorporating carbon fixation via photosynthesis, organic carbon uptake and functional biomass growth. The model was validated with experimental growth data of C. vulgaris and was found to fit the data well. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model performance was highly sensitive to variations in parameters associated with nutrient factors, photosynthesis and light intensity. The maximum productivity and biomass concentration were achieved under mixotrophic nitrogen sufficient conditions, while the maximum storage content was obtained under mixotrophic nitrogen deficient conditions. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Micro-Anatomical Quantitative Imaging Towards Enabling Automated Diagnosis of Thick Tissues at the Point of Care

Histopathology is the clinical standard for tissue diagnosis. However, histopathology has several limitations including that it requires tissue processing, which can take 30 minutes or more, and requires a highly trained pathologist to diagnose the tissue. Additionally, the diagnosis is qualitative, and the lack of quantitation leads to possible observer-specific diagnosis. Taken together, it is difficult to diagnose tissue at the point of care using histopathology.

Several clinical situations could benefit from more rapid and automated histological processing, which could reduce the time and the number of steps required between obtaining a fresh tissue specimen and rendering a diagnosis. For example, there is need for rapid detection of residual cancer on the surface of tumor resection specimens during excisional surgeries, which is known as intraoperative tumor margin assessment. Additionally, rapid assessment of biopsy specimens at the point-of-care could enable clinicians to confirm that a suspicious lesion is successfully sampled, thus preventing an unnecessary repeat biopsy procedure. Rapid and low cost histological processing could also be potentially useful in settings lacking the human resources and equipment necessary to perform standard histologic assessment. Lastly, automated interpretation of tissue samples could potentially reduce inter-observer error, particularly in the diagnosis of borderline lesions.

To address these needs, high quality microscopic images of the tissue must be obtained in rapid timeframes, in order for a pathologic assessment to be useful for guiding the intervention. Optical microscopy is a powerful technique to obtain high-resolution images of tissue morphology in real-time at the point of care, without the need for tissue processing. In particular, a number of groups have combined fluorescence microscopy with vital fluorescent stains to visualize micro-anatomical features of thick (i.e. unsectioned or unprocessed) tissue. However, robust methods for segmentation and quantitative analysis of heterogeneous images are essential to enable automated diagnosis. Thus, the goal of this work was to obtain high resolution imaging of tissue morphology through employing fluorescence microscopy and vital fluorescent stains and to develop a quantitative strategy to segment and quantify tissue features in heterogeneous images, such as nuclei and the surrounding stroma, which will enable automated diagnosis of thick tissues.

To achieve these goals, three specific aims were proposed. The first aim was to develop an image processing method that can differentiate nuclei from background tissue heterogeneity and enable automated diagnosis of thick tissue at the point of care. A computational technique called sparse component analysis (SCA) was adapted to isolate features of interest, such as nuclei, from the background. SCA has been used previously in the image processing community for image compression, enhancement, and restoration, but has never been applied to separate distinct tissue types in a heterogeneous image. In combination with a high resolution fluorescence microendoscope (HRME) and a contrast agent acriflavine, the utility of this technique was demonstrated through imaging preclinical sarcoma tumor margins. Acriflavine localizes to the nuclei of cells where it reversibly associates with RNA and DNA. Additionally, acriflavine shows some affinity for collagen and muscle. SCA was adapted to isolate acriflavine positive features or APFs (which correspond to RNA and DNA) from background tissue heterogeneity. The circle transform (CT) was applied to the SCA output to quantify the size and density of overlapping APFs. The sensitivity of the SCA+CT approach to variations in APF size, density and background heterogeneity was demonstrated through simulations. Specifically, SCA+CT achieved the lowest errors for higher contrast ratios and larger APF sizes. When applied to tissue images of excised sarcoma margins, SCA+CT correctly isolated APFs and showed consistently increased density in tumor and tumor + muscle images compared to images containing muscle. Next, variables were quantified from images of resected primary sarcomas and used to optimize a multivariate model. The sensitivity and specificity for differentiating positive from negative ex vivo resected tumor margins was 82% and 75%. The utility of this approach was further tested by imaging the in vivo tumor cavities from 34 mice after resection of a sarcoma with local recurrence as a bench mark. When applied prospectively to images from the tumor cavity, the sensitivity and specificity for differentiating local recurrence was 78% and 82%. The results indicate that SCA+CT can accurately delineate APFs in heterogeneous tissue, which is essential to enable automated and rapid surveillance of tissue pathology.

Two primary challenges were identified in the work in aim 1. First, while SCA can be used to isolate features, such as APFs, from heterogeneous images, its performance is limited by the contrast between APFs and the background. Second, while it is feasible to create mosaics by scanning a sarcoma tumor bed in a mouse, which is on the order of 3-7 mm in any one dimension, it is not feasible to evaluate an entire human surgical margin. Thus, improvements to the microscopic imaging system were made to (1) improve image contrast through rejecting out-of-focus background fluorescence and to (2) increase the field of view (FOV) while maintaining the sub-cellular resolution needed for delineation of nuclei. To address these challenges, a technique called structured illumination microscopy (SIM) was employed in which the entire FOV is illuminated with a defined spatial pattern rather than scanning a focal spot, such as in confocal microscopy.

Thus, the second aim was to improve image contrast and increase the FOV through employing wide-field, non-contact structured illumination microscopy and optimize the segmentation algorithm for new imaging modality. Both image contrast and FOV were increased through the development of a wide-field fluorescence SIM system. Clear improvement in image contrast was seen in structured illumination images compared to uniform illumination images. Additionally, the FOV is over 13X larger than the fluorescence microendoscope used in aim 1. Initial segmentation results of SIM images revealed that SCA is unable to segment large numbers of APFs in the tumor images. Because the FOV of the SIM system is over 13X larger than the FOV of the fluorescence microendoscope, dense collections of APFs commonly seen in tumor images could no longer be sparsely represented, and the fundamental sparsity assumption associated with SCA was no longer met. Thus, an algorithm called maximally stable extremal regions (MSER) was investigated as an alternative approach for APF segmentation in SIM images. MSER was able to accurately segment large numbers of APFs in SIM images of tumor tissue. In addition to optimizing MSER for SIM image segmentation, an optimal frequency of the illumination pattern used in SIM was carefully selected because the image signal to noise ratio (SNR) is dependent on the grid frequency. A grid frequency of 31.7 mm-1 led to the highest SNR and lowest percent error associated with MSER segmentation.

Once MSER was optimized for SIM image segmentation and the optimal grid frequency was selected, a quantitative model was developed to diagnose mouse sarcoma tumor margins that were imaged ex vivo with SIM. Tumor margins were stained with acridine orange (AO) in aim 2 because AO was found to stain the sarcoma tissue more brightly than acriflavine. Both acriflavine and AO are intravital dyes, which have been shown to stain nuclei, skeletal muscle, and collagenous stroma. A tissue-type classification model was developed to differentiate localized regions (75x75 µm) of tumor from skeletal muscle and adipose tissue based on the MSER segmentation output. Specifically, a logistic regression model was used to classify each localized region. The logistic regression model yielded an output in terms of probability (0-100%) that tumor was located within each 75x75 µm region. The model performance was tested using a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis that revealed 77% sensitivity and 81% specificity. For margin classification, the whole margin image was divided into localized regions and this tissue-type classification model was applied. In a subset of 6 margins (3 negative, 3 positive), it was shown that with a tumor probability threshold of 50%, 8% of all regions from negative margins exceeded this threshold, while over 17% of all regions exceeded the threshold in the positive margins. Thus, 8% of regions in negative margins were considered false positives. These false positive regions are likely due to the high density of APFs present in normal tissues, which clearly demonstrates a challenge in implementing this automatic algorithm based on AO staining alone.

Thus, the third aim was to improve the specificity of the diagnostic model through leveraging other sources of contrast. Modifications were made to the SIM system to enable fluorescence imaging at a variety of wavelengths. Specifically, the SIM system was modified to enabling imaging of red fluorescent protein (RFP) expressing sarcomas, which were used to delineate the location of tumor cells within each image. Initial analysis of AO stained panels confirmed that there was room for improvement in tumor detection, particularly in regards to false positive regions that were negative for RFP. One approach for improving the specificity of the diagnostic model was to investigate using a fluorophore that was more specific to staining tumor. Specifically, tetracycline was selected because it appeared to specifically stain freshly excised tumor tissue in a matter of minutes, and was non-toxic and stable in solution. Results indicated that tetracycline staining has promise for increasing the specificity of tumor detection in SIM images of a preclinical sarcoma model and further investigation is warranted.

In conclusion, this work presents the development of a combination of tools that is capable of automated segmentation and quantification of micro-anatomical images of thick tissue. When compared to the fluorescence microendoscope, wide-field multispectral fluorescence SIM imaging provided improved image contrast, a larger FOV with comparable resolution, and the ability to image a variety of fluorophores. MSER was an appropriate and rapid approach to segment dense collections of APFs from wide-field SIM images. Variables that reflect the morphology of the tissue, such as the density, size, and shape of nuclei and nucleoli, can be used to automatically diagnose SIM images. The clinical utility of SIM imaging and MSER segmentation to detect microscopic residual disease has been demonstrated by imaging excised preclinical sarcoma margins. Ultimately, this work demonstrates that fluorescence imaging of tissue micro-anatomy combined with a specialized algorithm for delineation and quantification of features is a means for rapid, non-destructive and automated detection of microscopic disease, which could improve cancer management in a variety of clinical scenarios.

An intercomparison of bio-optical techniques for detecting dominant phytoplankton size class from satellite remote sensing

Satellite remote sensing of ocean colour is the only method currently available for synoptically measuring wide-area properties of ocean ecosystems, such as phytoplankton chlorophyll biomass. Recently, a variety of bio-optical and ecological methods have been established that use satellite data to identify and differentiate between either phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) or phytoplankton size classes (PSCs). In this study, several of these techniques were evaluated against in situ observations to determine their ability to detect dominant phytoplankton size classes (micro-, nano- and picoplankton). The techniques are applied to a 10-year ocean-colour data series from the SeaWiFS satellite sensor and compared with in situ data (6504 samples) from a variety of locations in the global ocean. Results show that spectral-response, ecological and abundance-based approaches can all perform with similar accuracy. Detection of microplankton and picoplankton were generally better than detection of nanoplankton. Abundance-based approaches were shown to provide better spatial retrieval of PSCs. Individual model performance varied according to PSC, input satellite data sources and in situ validation data types. Uncertainty in the comparison procedure and data sources was considered. Improved availability of in situ observations would aid ongoing research in this field.