Modelling life history strategies with capture-recapture data: Evolutionary demography of the water skink Eulamprus tympanum

Matrix population models, elasticity analysis and loop analysis can potentially provide powerful techniques for the analysis of life histories. Data from a capture-recapture study on a population of southern highland water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) were used to construct a matrix population model. Errors in elasticities were calculated by using the parametric bootstrap technique. Elasticity and loop analyses were then conducted to identify the life history stages most important to fitness. The same techniques were used to investigate the relative importance of fast versus slow growth, and rapid versus delayed reproduction. Mature water skinks were long-lived, but there was high immature mortality. The most sensitive life history stage was the subadult stage. It is suggested that life history evolution in E. tympanum may be strongly affected by predation, particularly by birds. Because our population declined over the study, slow growth and delayed reproduction were the optimal life history strategies over this period. Although the techniques of evolutionary demography provide a powerful approach for the analysis of life histories, there are formidable logistical obstacles in gathering enough high-quality data for robust estimates of the critical parameters.

An overview of diversion strategies for Australian drug-related offenders

This paper provides a descriptive overview of options for diversion of drug-related offenders from the criminal justice system. Drug-related offences include drug offences (for example, possession of a prohibited substance); offences that are directly linked to intoxication (for example, drink-driving or assault); and offences committed to support drug use (for example, theft). After an offence has been detected by police, multiple opportunities for diversion occur throughout the criminal justice process. (a) Pre-arrest: when an offence is first detected, prior to a charge being laid. This is known as police diversion and includes fines, warnings and cautions, sometimes with educational information or referral to assessment and treatment. (b) Pre-trial: when a charge is made but before the matter is heard at court. Examples are treatment as a condition of bail, conferencing and prosecutor discretion. (c) Pre-sentence: a delay of sentence while assessment and treatment are sought. (d) Post-sentence: as part of sentencing, for example suspended sentences, drug courts, noncustodial sentences and circle sentencing. (e) Pre-release: prior to release from a sentence, on parole. Issues for diversion programmes include net widening, the ethics of coercion to treatment, the needs of families and intersectoral collaboration. A framework for diversion is presented in which increasingly treatment-focused and coercive diversion strategies are used as offenders' criminal careers and drug problems increase.

Social structures, genetic structures and dispersal strategies in Australian rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) populations

In this study, the pattern of movement of young male and female rabbits and the genetic structures present in adult male and female populations in four habitats was examined. The level of philopatry in young animals was found to vary between 18-90% for males and 32-95% for females in different populations. It was skewed, with more males dispersing than females in some but not all populations. Analysis of allozyme data using spatial autocorrelation showed that adult females from the same social group, unlike males, were significantly related in four of the five populations studied. Changes in genetic structure and rate of dispersal were measured before and during the recovery of a population that was artificially reduced in size. There were changes in the rate and distance of dispersal with density and sex. Subadults of both sexes moved further in the first year post crash (low density) than in the following years. While the level of dispersal for females was lower than that of the males for the first 3 years, thereafter (high density) both sexes showed similar, low levels of dispersal (20%). The density at which young animals switch behaviour between dispersal and philopatry differed for males and females. The level of genetic structuring in adult females was high in the precrash population, reduced in the first year post crash and undetectable in the second year. Dispersal behaviour of rabbits both affects the genetic structure of the population and changes with conditions. Over a wide range of levels of philopatry, genetic structuring is present in the adult female, but not the male population. Consequently, though genetic structuring is present, it does not lead to inbreeding. More long-distance movements are found in low-density populations, even though vacant warrens are available near birth warrens. The distances moved decreased as density increased. Calculation of the effective population size (N-e) shows that changes in dispersal distance offset changes in density, so that N-e remains constant.

Achieving the millennium development goals for health - Cost effectiveness analysis of strategies for. maternal and neonatal health in developing countries

Objective To determine the costs and benefits of interventions for maternal and newborn health to assess the appropriateness of current strategies and guide future plans to attain the millennium development goals. Design Cost effectiveness analysis. Setting Two regions classified by the World Health Organization according to their epidemiological grouping: Afr-E, those countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality, and Sear-D, comprising countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality. Data sources Effectiveness data from several sources, including trials, observational studies, and expert opinion. For resource inputs, quantifies came from WHO guidelines, literature, and expert opinion, and prices from the WHO choosing interventions that are cost effective database. Main outcome measures Cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted in year 2000 international dollars. Results The most cost effective mix of interventions was similar in Afr-E and Sear-D. These were the community based newborn care package, followed by antenatal care (tetanus toxoid, screening for pre-eclampsia, screening and treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria and syphilis); skilled attendance at birth, offering first level maternal and neonatal care around childbirth; and emergency obstetric and neonatal care around and after birth. Screening and treatment of maternal syphilis, community based management of neonatal pneumonia, and steroids given during the antenatal period were relatively less cost effective in Sear-D. Scaling up all of the included interventions to 95% coverage would halve neonatal and maternal deaths. Conclusion Preventive interventions at the community level for newborn babies and at the primary care level for mothers and newborn babies are extremely cost effective, but the millennium development goals for maternal and child health will not be achieved without universal access to clinical services as well.

Achieving the millennium development goals for health - Time to reassess strategies for improving health in developing countries

Making best use of resources is vital in developing countries that are struggling to improve public health with limited funds. The WHO-CHOICE project has developed standardised methods to,evaluate the efficiency of a broad range of interventions. Ibis series starts by assessing die problems with strategies for meeting the millennium development goals. Subsequent articles describe the methods, apply them to maternal and neonatal health, child health, HIV and AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and consider the implications for an overall health strategy. All appear on bmj.com this week.

Promoting physical activity to older adults: a preliminary evaluation of three general practice-based strategies

The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of an exercise scientist (ES) working in general practice to promote physical activity (PA) to 55 to 70 year old adults. Participants were randomised into one of three groups: either brief verbal and written advice from a general practitioner (GP) (G1, N=9); or individualised counselling and follow-up telephone calls from an ES, either with (G3, N=8) or without a pedometer (G2, N=11). PA levels were assessed at week 1, after the 12-wk intervention and again at 24 weeks. After the 12-wk intervention, the average increase in PA was 116 (SD=237) min/wk; N=28, p < 0.001. Although there were no statistically significant between-group differences, the average increases in PA among G2 and G3 participants were 195 (SD=207) and 138 (SD=315) min/wk respectively, compared with no change (0.36, SD=157) in G1. After 24 weeks, average PA levels remained 56 (SD=129) min/wk higher than in week 1. The small numbers of participants in this feasibility study limit the power to detect significant differences between groups, but it would appear that individualised counselling and follow-up contact from an ES, with or without a pedometer, can result in substantial changes in PA levels. A larger study is now planned to confirm these findings.

Immediate Locally Advanced Breast Cancer and Chest Wall Reconstruction: Surgical Planning and Reconstruction Strategies with Extended V-Y Latissimus Dorsi Myocutaneous Flap

Background: Surgical resection in locally advanced breast cancer produces large defects that may not be suitable for primary closure. Immediate reconstruction is controversial and presents a complicated scenario for breast surgeons and plastic surgeons. Methods: In this study, a different design was planned for the latissimus dorsi musculocutaneous flap with primary closure in V-Y for the correction of major lesions in the anterior chest wall. Twenty-five patients underwent immediate locally advanced breast cancer reconstruction with a V-Y latissimus dorsi musculocutaneous flap. This flap was raised from adjacent tissue located on the lateral and posterior thoracic region and presented a triangular shape whose base was the lateral aspect of the mastectomy wound. The technique was indicated in patients with large thoracic wounds. Results: Mean follow-up time was 16 months. Closure was obtained in the donor and recipient sites without the use of skin grafts or other more major procedures. Complications occurred in nine patients (36 percent), including dorsal wound dehiscence in five patients and seroma in three. All cases except one were treated by a conservative approach with a good result. No total flap loss was reported. All patients achieved a satisfactory thoracic reconstruction and adequate wound care. Conclusions: The V-Y latissimus dorsi musculocutaneous flap is a reliable technique for immediate locally advanced breast cancer reconstruction. The technique is advantageous because the V-Y design allows primary closure of the chest wound and donor defect. Success depends on patient selection, coordinated planning with the breast cancer surgeon, and careful intraoperative management. (Plast. Reconstr. Surg. 127: 2186, 2011.)

The Tessier Number 5 Facial Cleft: Surgical Strategies and Outcomes in Six Patients

The Tessier no. 5 facial cleft is an extremely rare congenital malformation. Only 26 cases have been described In the English-language literature. The cleft begins In the upper lip just medial to the oral commissure, extending across the cheek as a groove ending at the junction of the middle and lateral thirds of the lower eyelid. The bone Involvement usually Includes an alveolar cleft in the premolar region, extends across the maxilla lateral to the Infraorbital nerve, up to the infraorbital rim and orbital floor. The goals of the surgical procedure Include reconstructing the lower eyelid, repositioning the lateral canthus, closure of the labiomaxillary cleft, and restoration of the skeletal continuity (including the orbital floor defect) with bone grafts. We present six patients with the Tessier no. 5 facial cleft who have been treated in our combined centers and discuss the surgical options and difficulties faced in the reconstruction of this rare and challenging craniofacial malformation. To date, we have treated six patients (two with bilateral and four with unilateral clefts). Three of the patients with unilateral clefting had an associated no. 4 cleft and one patient with a bilateral cleft had an associated no. 3 cleft. This paper represents the largest series to date documenting surgery for patients with the Tessier no. 5 facial cleft.

Strategies for genetic model specification in the screening of genome-wide meta-analysis signals for further replication

Background Meta-analysis is increasingly being employed as a screening procedure in large-scale association studies to select promising variants for follow-up studies. However, standard methods for meta-analysis require the assumption of an underlying genetic model, which is typically unknown a priori. This drawback can introduce model misspecifications, causing power to be suboptimal, or the evaluation of multiple genetic models, which augments the number of false-positive associations, ultimately leading to waste of resources with fruitless replication studies. We used simulated meta-analyses of large genetic association studies to investigate naive strategies of genetic model specification to optimize screenings of genome-wide meta-analysis signals for further replication. Methods Different methods, meta-analytical models and strategies were compared in terms of power and type-I error. Simulations were carried out for a binary trait in a wide range of true genetic models, genome-wide thresholds, minor allele frequencies (MAFs), odds ratios and between-study heterogeneity (tau(2)). Results Among the investigated strategies, a simple Bonferroni-corrected approach that fits both multiplicative and recessive models was found to be optimal in most examined scenarios, reducing the likelihood of false discoveries and enhancing power in scenarios with small MAFs either in the presence or in absence of heterogeneity. Nonetheless, this strategy is sensitive to tau(2) whenever the susceptibility allele is common (MAF epsilon 30%), resulting in an increased number of false-positive associations compared with an analysis that considers only the multiplicative model. Conclusion Invoking a simple Bonferroni adjustment and testing for both multiplicative and recessive models is fast and an optimal strategy in large meta-analysis-based screenings. However, care must be taken when examined variants are common, where specification of a multiplicative model alone may be preferable.

Ten-Year Follow-Up Survival of the Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study (MASS II) A Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial of 3 Therapeutic Strategies for Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease

Background-This study compared the 10-year follow-up of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), coronary artery surgery (CABG), and medical treatment (MT) in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease, stable angina, and preserved ventricular function. Methods and Results-The primary end points were overall mortality, Q-wave myocardial infarction, or refractory angina that required revascularization. All data were analyzed according to the intention-to-treat principle. At a single institution, 611 patients were randomly assigned to CABG (n = 203), PCI (n = 205), or MT (n = 203). The 10-year survival rates were 74.9% with CABG, 75.1% with PCI, and 69% with MT (P = 0.089). The 10-year rates of myocardial infarction were 10.3% with CABG, 13.3% with PCI, and 20.7% with MT (P < 0.010). The 10-year rates of additional revascularizations were 7.4% with CABG, 41.9% with PCI, and 39.4% with MT (P < 0.001). Relative to the composite end point, Cox regression analysis showed a higher incidence of primary events in MT than in CABG (hazard ratio 2.35, 95% confidence interval 1.78 to 3.11) and in PCI than in CABG (hazard ratio 1.85, 95% confidence interval 1.39 to 2.47). Furthermore, 10-year rates of freedom from angina were 64% with CABG, 59% with PCI, and 43% with MT (P < 0.001). Conclusions-Compared with CABG, MT was associated with a significantly higher incidence of subsequent myocardial infarction, a higher rate of additional revascularization, a higher incidence of cardiac death, and consequently a 2.29-fold increased risk of combined events. PCI was associated with an increased need for further revascularization, a higher incidence of myocardial infarction, and a 1.46-fold increased risk of combined events compared with CABG. Additionally, CABG was better than MT at eliminating anginal symptoms.

The Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes Randomized Trial of Different Treatment Strategies in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease Impact of Treatment Strategy on Cardiac Mortality and Myocardial Infarction

Background-The Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial in 2368 patients with stable ischemic heart disease assigned before randomization to percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting strata reported similar 5-year all-cause mortality rates with insulin sensitization versus insulin provision therapy and with a strategy of prompt initial coronary revascularization and intensive medical therapy or intensive medical therapy alone with revascularization reserved for clinical indication(s). In this report, we examine the predefined secondary end points of cardiac death and myocardial infarction (MI). Methods and Results-Outcome data were analyzed by intention to treat; the Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess 5-year event rates. Nominal P values are presented. During an average 5.3-year follow-up, there were 316 deaths (43% were attributed to cardiac causes) and 279 first MI events. Five-year cardiac mortality did not differ between revascularization plus intensive medical therapy (5.9%) and intensive medical therapy alone groups (5.7%; P = 0.38) or between insulin sensitization (5.7%) and insulin provision therapy (6%; P = 0.76). In the coronary artery bypass grafting stratum (n = 763), MI events were significantly less frequent in revascularization plus intensive medical therapy versus intensive medical therapy alone groups (10.0% versus 17.6%; P = 0.003), and the composite end points of all-cause death or MI (21.1% versus 29.2%; P = 0.010) and cardiac death or MI (P = 0.03) were also less frequent. Reduction in MI (P = 0.001) and cardiac death/MI (P = 0.002) was significant only in the insulin sensitization group. Conclusions-In many patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic coronary disease in whom angina symptoms are controlled, similar to those enrolled in the percutaneous coronary intervention stratum, intensive medical therapy alone should be the first-line strategy. In patients with more extensive coronary disease, similar to those enrolled in the coronary artery bypass grafting stratum, prompt coronary artery bypass grafting, in the absence of contraindications, intensive medical therapy, and an insulin sensitization strategy appears to be a preferred therapeutic strategy to reduce the incidence of MI. Clinical Trial Registration-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00006305. (Circulation. 2009;120:2529-2540.)