Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

Estimating the mean and standard deviation of concentration distributions using censored samples

Environmental data sets of pollutant concentrations in air, water, and soil frequently include unquantified sample values reported only as being below the analytical method detection limit. These values, referred to as censored values, should be considered in the estimation of distribution parameters as each represents some value of pollutant concentration between zero and the detection limit. Most of the currently accepted methods for estimating the population parameters of environmental data sets containing censored values rely upon the assumption of an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. This assumption can result in unacceptable levels of error in parameter estimation due to the unbounded left tail of the normal distribution. With the beta distribution, which is bounded by the same range of a distribution of concentrations, $\rm\lbrack0\le x\le1\rbrack,$ parameter estimation errors resulting from improper distribution bounds are avoided. This work developed a method that uses the beta distribution to estimate population parameters from censored environmental data sets and evaluated its performance in comparison to currently accepted methods that rely upon an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. Data sets were generated assuming typical values encountered in environmental pollutant evaluation for mean, standard deviation, and number of variates. For each set of model values, data sets were generated assuming that the data was distributed either normally, lognormally, or according to a beta distribution. For varying levels of censoring, two established methods of parameter estimation, regression on normal ordered statistics, and regression on lognormal ordered statistics, were used to estimate the known mean and standard deviation of each data set. The method developed for this study, employing a beta distribution assumption, was also used to estimate parameters and the relative accuracy of all three methods were compared. For data sets of all three distribution types, and for censoring levels up to 50%, the performance of the new method equaled, if not exceeded, the performance of the two established methods. Because of its robustness in parameter estimation regardless of distribution type or censoring level, the method employing the beta distribution should be considered for full development in estimating parameters for censored environmental data sets. ^

Color polymorphism and sex ratio distortion in a cichlid fish as an incipient stage in sympatric speciation by sexual selection

We investigated a Lake Victoria cichlid with a complex colour polymorphism that apparently represents one original species and two incipient species, all of which are sympatric. In laboratory breeding experiments we observed sex ratio distortion in certain matings between original and incipient species. Mate choice experiments show that males of the incipient species exhibit mating preferences against the original species, and males and females of the original species exhibit strong mating preferences against the incipient species. Mating preferences might evolve by sex ratio selection to avoid matings with distorted progeny sex ratios. Phenotype frequencies in nature suggest that mating preferences translate into mating frequencies, thus restricting gene flow and exerting disruptive sexual selection between the original and incipient species. The incipient species do not differ in morphology or ecology from the original species, implying that colour polymorphism, associated with sex ratio distortion, can be an incipient stage in sympatric speciation, and that disruption of gene flow can precede ecological differentiation

Trends of mean and extreme temperature indices since 1874 at low-elevation sites in the Southern Alps

We describe the recovery of three daily meteorological records for the southern Alps (Domodossola, Riva del Garda, and Rovereto), all starting in the second half of the nineteenth century. We use these new data, along with additional records, to study regional changes in the mean temperature and extreme indices of heat waves and cold spells frequency and duration over the period 1874–2015. The records are homogenized using subdaily cloud cover observations as a constraint for the statistical model, an approach that has never been applied before in the literature. A case study based on a record of parallel observations between a traditional meteorological window and a modern screen shows that the use of cloud cover can reduce the root-mean-square error of the homogenization by up to 30% in comparison to an unaided statistical correction. We find that mean temperature in the southern Alps has increased by 1.4°C per century over the analyzed period, with larger increases in daily minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures. The number of hot days in summer has more than tripled, and a similar increase is observed in duration of heat waves. Cold days in winter have dropped at a similar rate. These trends are mainly caused by climate change over the last few decades.

Trends in mean and extreme precipitation in the Mount Kenya region from observations and reanalyses

Land and water management in semi-arid regions requires detailed information on precipitation distribution, including extremes, and changes therein. Such information is often lacking. This paper describes statistics of mean and extreme precipitation in a unique data set from the Mount Kenya region, encompassing around 50 stations with at least 30 years of data. We describe the data set, including quality control procedures and statistical break detection. Trends in mean precipitation and extreme indices calculated from these data for individual rainy seasons are compared with corresponding trends in reanalysis products. From 1979 to 2011, mean precipitation decreased at 75% of the stations during the ‘long rains’ (March to May) and increased at 70% of the stations during the ‘short rains’ (October to December). Corresponding trends are found in the number of heavy precipitation days, and maximum of consecutive 5-day precipitation. Conversely, an increase in consecutive dry days within both main rainy seasons is found. However, trends are only statistically significant in very few cases. Reanalysis data sets agree with observations with respect to interannual variability, while correlations are considerably lower for monthly deviations (ratios) from the mean annual cycle. While some products well reproduce the rainfall climatology and some the spatial trend pattern, no product reproduces both.

(Table 1) Concentrations and isotopic ratio of Argon in Cretaceous deep-sea basaltic glass of DSDP Hole 51-417D

The abundance and isotopic composition of rare gas in the mantle provides an important constraint on the origin and evolution of the Earth's atmosphere. One of sources of such information is basalts which erupted from ocean ridges. Ozima (1975, doi:10.1016/0016-7037(75)90054-X) stated that a high 40Ar/36Ar ratio in the mantle suggests sudden degassing at an early stage of the Earth's evolution. Several authors (Funkhouser et al., 1968, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(68)80021-4; Darlymple and Moor, 1968, doi:10.1126/science.161.3846.1132) have reported excess 40Ar and high 40Ar/36Ar ratios in rapidly quenched rims of young deep-sea basalts. However, the Ar composition in old ridge basalts was not known. We report here a measurement of the isotopic composition of Ar in old deep-sea basalts. The Glomar Challenger drilled a Cretaceous ocean floor near the southern end of the Bermuda Rise in Deep Sea Drilling Project. The drilled site (Site 417) is on the magnetic anomaly MO which has been estimated to be 108 Myr old.

Reefs shift from net accretion to net erosion along a natural environmental gradient

Coral reefs persist in an accretion-erosion balance and ocean acidification resulting from anthropogenic CO2 emissions threatens to shift this balance in favor of net reef erosion. Corals and calcifying algae, largely responsible for reef accretion, are vulnerable to environmental changes associated with ocean acidification, but the direct effects of lower pH on reef erosion has received less attention, particularly in the context of known drivers of bioerosion and natural variability. This study examines the balance between reef accretion and erosion along a well-characterized natural environmental gradient in Kane'ohe Bay, Hawai'i using experimental blocks of coral skeleton. Comparing before and after micro-computed tomography (µCT) scans to quantify net accretion and erosion, we show that, at the small spatial scale of this study (tens of meters), pH was a better predictor of the accretion-erosion balance than environmental drivers suggested by prior studies, including resource availability, temperature, distance from shore, or depth. In addition, this study highlights the fine-scale variation of pH in coastal systems and the importance of microhabitat variation for reef accretion and erosion processes. We demonstrate significant changes in both the mean and variance of pH on the order of meters, providing a local perspective on global increases in pCO2. Our findings suggest that increases in reef erosion, combined with expected decreases in calcification, will accelerate the shift of coral reefs to an erosion-dominated system in a high-CO2 world. This shift will make reefs increasingly susceptible to storm damage and sea-level rise, threatening the maintenance of the ecosystem services that coral reefs provide.