Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GMC

A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany. The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES-Scenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.

Simple M-factor algorithm for improved estimation of the basic maximum usable frequency of radio waves reflected from the ionospheric F-region

The equations of Milsom are evaluated, giving the ground range and group delay of radio waves propagated via the horizontally stratified model ionosphere proposed by Bradley and Dudeney. Expressions for the ground range which allow for the effects of the underlying E- and F1-regions are used to evaluate the basic maximum usable frequency or M-factors for single F-layer hops. An algorithm for the rapid calculation of the M-factor at a given range is developed, and shown to be accurate to within 5%. The results reveal that the M(3000)F2-factor scaled from vertical-incidence ionograms using the standard URSI procedure can be up to 7.5% in error. A simple addition to the algorithm effects a correction to ionogram values to make these accurate to 0.5%.

Períodos de interferência das plantas daninhas na cultura da cana-de-açúcar: III - capim-braquiária (Brachiaria decumbens) e capim-colonião (Panicum maximum)

Um experimento foi conduzido em São João da Boa Vista-SP, com o objetivo de determinar o período anterior à interferência (PAI) e o período total de prevenção à interferência (PTPI) das plantas daninhas na cultura da cana-de-açúcar. A cana foi plantada em abril de 1995, na época de plantio caracterizada por maior deficiência hídrica. A comunidade infestante presente foi variada, sendo Brachiaria decumbens e Panicum maximum as espécies mais importantes. Essa comunidade tendeu a apresentar acúmulo crescente de matéria seca durante todo o período de avaliação e reduziu em até 40% a produtividade de colmos da cana-de-açúcar. A cultura conviveu com a comunidade infestante até 74 dias após o plantio, sem sofrer redução significativa na produtividade (PAI). O período mínimo de controle para garantir a produtividade foi de 127 DAP (PTPI). Dessa forma, o controle das plantas daninhas foi crítico no período compreendido entre 74 e 127 dias após o plantio.

A geometric interpretation for transmission real losses minimization through the optimal power flow and its influence on voltage collapse

This work presents an approach for geometric solution of an optimal power flow (OPF) problem for a two bus system (a slack and a PV busses). Additionally, the geometric relationship between the losses minimization and the increase of the reactive margin and, therefore, the maximum loading point, is shown. The algebraic equations for the calculation of the Lagrange multipliers and for the minimum losses value are obtained. These equations are used to validate the results obtained using an OPF program. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Deformation, Mass Loss, and Roughness of Different Metal Burs After Osteotomy for Osseointegrated Implants

Purpose: This study used bovine ribs to comparatively assess the deformation, roughness, and mass loss for 3 different types of surface treatments with burs, used in osteotomies, for the installation of osseointegrated implants.Materials and Methods: The study used 25 bovine ribs and 3 types of helical burs (2.0 mm and 3.0 mm) for osteotomies during implant placement (a steel bur [G1], a bur with tungsten carbide film coating in a carbon matrix [G2], and a zirconia bur [G3]), which were subdivided into 5 subgroups: 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, corresponding to 0, 10, 20, 30, and 40 perforations, respectively. The surface roughness (mean roughness [Ra], partial roughness, and maximum roughness) and mass (in grams) of all the burs were measured, and the burs were analyzed in a scanning electron microscope before and after use. Data were tabulated and statistically analyzed by use of the Kruskal-Wallis test, and when a statistically significant difference was found, the Dunn test was used.Results: There was a loss of mass in all groups (G1, G2, and G3), and this loss was gradual, according to the number of perforations made (1, 2, 3, 4, and 5). However, this difference was not statistically significant (P < .05). Regarding the roughness, G3 presented an increase in Ra, partial roughness, and maximum roughness (P < .05) compared with G2 and an increase in Ra compared with G1. There was no statistically significant difference (P > .05) between G1 and G2. The scanning electron microscopy analysis found areas of deformation in all the 2.0-mm samples, with loss of substrates, and this characteristic was more frequent in G3.Conclusions: The 2.0-mm zirconia burs had a greater loss of substrates and abrasive wear in the cutting area. They also presented an increased roughness when compared with the steel and the tungsten carbide coating film in carbon matrix. There was no statistically significant difference (P < .05) between G1 and G2 in any mechanical test carried out. (C) 2012 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Surg 70:e608-e621, 2012

Maximum entropy, fractal dimension and lacunarity in quantification of cellular rejection in myocardial biopsy of patients submitted to heart transplantation

This paper presents a method for the quantification of cellular rejection in endomyocardial biopsies of patients submitted to heart transplant. The model is based on automatic multilevel thresholding, which employs histogram quantification techniques, histogram slope percentage analysis and the calculation of maximum entropy. The structures were quantified with the aid of the multi-scale fractal dimension and lacunarity for the identification of behavior patterns in myocardial cellular rejection in order to determine the most adequate treatment for each case.

Importantes características de chuva para a conservação do solo e da água no município de São Manuel (SP)

Os modelos matemáticos preditivos da erosão do solo, como a Equação Universal de Perda de Solo (EUPS), são de muita valia no planejamento de uso agrícola da terra. Tal equação, desenvolvida para estimar as perdas médias anuais de solo esperadas em dado local, para determinado sistema de manejo, apresenta como variáveis os fatores erosividade da chuva (R), erodibilidade do solo (K), comprimento do declive (L), grau do declive (S), cobertura e manejo (C) e práticas conservacionistas de suporte (P). Com o objetivo de contribuir para o planejamento conservacionista de uso do solo local, foi estimado, de forma simplificada, o fator erosividade da chuva (R) da EUPS para o município de São Manuel (SP), para uma série pluviométrica contínua de 49 anos de dados de chuva diária. Além disso, foram também calculados o período de retorno, a freqüência de ocorrência dos índices de erosividade anuais e as quantidades máximas diárias das chuvas necessárias para o dimensionamento mais adequado de canais de terraços agrícolas em nível. O valor calculado do fator R foi de 7.487 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 ano-1, esperado ocorrer no local, pelo menos, uma vez a cada 2,33 anos, com uma probabilidade de 42,92 %. Observou-se uma concentração de 81,48 % do valor total deste fator no semestre de outubro a março, indicando que, potencialmente, as maiores perdas anuais de solo por erosão são esperadas neste período. Os valores anuais do índice EI30, esperados para os períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos, foram de 7.216, 8.675, 9.641, 10.568, 11.768 e 12.667 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 ano-1, respectivamente. Com relação às quantidades máximas de chuva diária, para os mesmos períodos de retorno, os valores foram de 73, 98, 115, 131, 151 e 167 mm, respectivamente.

Dielectric loss and phase transition of sodium potassium niobate ceramic investigated by impedance spectroscopy

The dielectric permittivity of Na0.80K0.20NbO3 ceramic was investigated by impedance spectroscopy. The dielectric characterization was performed from room temperature to 800 degreesC, in the frequency range 5 Hz-13 MHz. The bulk permittivity was derived by the variation of the imaginary part of the impedance as a function of reciprocal angular frequency. The permittivity values as a function of temperature showed two maxima. The first maximum is very similar at 200degreesC and the second one positioned at around 400degreesC, which was associated to Curie's temperature. The evolution of the complex permittivity as a function of frequency and temperature was investigated. At low frequency dispersion was investigated in terms of dielectric loss. The Na0.80K0.20NbO3 showed a dissipation factor between 5 and 40 over a frequency range from 1 to 10(2) kHz. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of the maximum force due to skull impact in fights between sheep of the Ovis aries species

The present article presents a means of determining the maximum impact force between two bodies from the determination of the involved impulse in the impact and the sound emitted by the shock of the bodies during this impact.It also presents a case study applied to the shock between the skulls of male sheep of the Ovis aries species. These animals do not possess horns and dispute the territorial leadership by fighting, during which the skull is used as a weapon of attack, similar to a battering ram.Initially, a revision of basic physics approaching the theory of impulse is made, which shows that the average force during an impact can be obtained by the quantity of movement of the bodies. In its turn, the quantity of movement is obtained through the average speed of approach and the mass of the bodies. The maximum force is obtained from the average force, using the approach of the Force X Time curve with the Sonorous Intensity X Time Curve.In order to study the case of a shock between two sheep, the mass of the bodies was obtained through direct weighing and the average speed of approach obtained indirectly through filming, thus making possible the calculation of the average force. The Sonorous Intensity X Time Curve was obtained through the recording of the sound of the impact during a filmed fight, with later manipulation through computer programs. With this data the maximum force exercised between the skull of the sheep during the impact was obtained, which will be used in later studies.

Influence of the supply of reactive power in the calculation of the transfer capability

This paper presents some initial concepts for including reactive power in linear methods for computing Available Transfer Capability (ATC). It is proposed an approximation for the reactive power flows computation that uses the exact circle equations for the transmission line complex flow, and then it is determined the ATC using active power distribution factors. The transfer capability can be increased using the sensitivities of flow that show the best group of buses which can have their reactive power injection modified in order to remove the overload in the transmission lines. The results of the ATC computation and of the use of the sensitivities of flow are presented using the Cigré 32-bus system. © 2004 IEEE.

Orthodontic force increases interleukin-1β and tumor necrosis factor-α expression and alveolar bone loss in periodontitis

Background: The present study aims to evaluate the effects of orthodontic movement (OM) on the periodontal tissues of rats with ligature-induced periodontal disease. Methods: Eighty-eight rats were divided into four groups: 1) negative control (sham operated); 2) periodontal disease; 3) OM; and 4) periodontal disease followed by OM (OMP). Rats were sacrificed 3 hours or 1, 3, or 7 days after OM commencement. Bone volume fraction (BVF) and bone mineral density (BMD) were assessed in hemimaxillae by microcomputed tomography analysis. Expression of the proinflammatory cytokines interleukin (IL)-1β and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were evaluated in gingival samples by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and in the furcation region by immunohistochemistry analysis (IHC). Results: The OMP group had lower BVF and BMD levels compared to the other groups at day 7 (P <0.05). Maximum messenger ribonucleic acid expression of both cytokines was observed in the OMP group at day 1 (P <0.05). In the same period, all proteins were expressed in high levels for all test groups compared to the control group. The number of cells positive for IL-1β and TNF-α by IHC was highest in the OMP group at day 1, with progressive reduction thereafter. Conclusion: The results suggest that OM acts synergistically with periodontal disease in periodontal breakdown through upregulation of proinflammatory cytokines.

Coletores de amônia, fontes e formas de aplicação de nitrogênio em Panicum maximum CV. Tanzânia submetido a manejo intensivo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Queilite angular traumática em eqüinos associada à ingestão de Panicum maximum

Uma condição com aumento da fenda bucal de eqüinos por lesão na comissura labial foi estudada. Este aumento tinha extensão variável e era uni ou bilateral. Na mucosa da bochecha da comissura labial exposta havia pequenas erosões. Durante a mastigação havia perda de pequena quantidade de capim e saliva pela fenda bucal aumentada. Os animais apresentavam bom estado nutricional. O exame histopatológico de tecido retirado da comissura labial revelou epidermite superficial. Nas quatro propriedades onde se verificou o problema, constatou-se que os eqüinos eram mantidos em sistema extensivo de criação em pastagem de Panicum maximum (variedades Tanzânia, Mombaça, Tobiatã e Colonião), com folhas maduras, altas, lignificadas e de bordos cortantes. De acordo com os dados epidemiológicos, com os achados clínicos e histopatológicos, concluí-se que essas lesões foram causadas pela ação cortante das folhas de Panicum maximum, associada à forma de apreensão da pastagem alta e mastigação pelos eqüinos.

Análise preliminar para a estimativa da perda de calor sensível de um fluido homogêneo térmico em um reservatório de geometria cilindrica

This work analyzed the loss of sensible heat from one fluid to be considered homogeneous heat distribution on a thermal reservoir with cylindrical geometries composite insulating layers. We studied two thermal reservoirs with a volume of 20 liters, and the first has a layer thickness of 75 mm of expanding polyurethane foam wrapped in the polycarbonate container and the second container has only layer thickness of 5 mm of polycarbonate, as insulation of fluid of the external environment. The experimental results are compared with theoretical results obtained through a calculation script, displayed and detailed during the work development, from the theory of energy balance. The maximum error introduced between the theoretical and experimental results were 3.5% and 1.4% respectively for the Boilers with or without a polyurethane coating

Quantification of deformation processes in the Torlesse accretionary wedge, New Zealand

Zusammenfassung:In dieser Studie werden Deformationsprozesse im mesozoischen Torlesse Akkretionskeil (Neuseeland) quantifiziert, um Aufschluß über die Dynamik in Akkretionskeilen zu erhalten. Absolute und relative Verformungsmessungen zeigen sowohl im lokalen als auch regionalen Maßstab eine stark heterogene Deformation des Torlesse Keils. Die regionale Deformation wurde mit Hilfe einer Tensordurchschnittsberechnung, unter Benutzung einzelner lokaler Verformungsdaten, als uniaxiale Verkürzung entlang einer subvertikalen, maximalen Verkürzungsachse charakterisiert. Absolute Verformungsmessungen an niedriggradigen Metasandsteinen belegen darüber hinaus durchschnittliche Volumenverluste von ca. 20% SiO2. Volumenveränderungen in tieferkrustalen Aufschlüssen wurden mittels einer geochemischen Massenbilanzanalyse abgeschätzt. Chemische Zusammensetzungen höhergradiger Zonen weichen je nach Grad der Volumenverformung von der Protolitzusammensetzung ab und zeigen somit Verluste von 15% SiO2 an. Da Speicherorte für das gelöste Material nicht bekannt sind, muss angenommen werden, dass das Material aus dem Keil abtransportiert wurde. Die Verformungsergebnisse geben weiterhin Aufschluß über den Grad der Kopplung zwischen Akkretionskeil und subduzierter Platte. Die ermittelten Scherwerte in den Gesteinen liegen deutlich unter den zu erwartenden Scherwerten, die mittels eines einfachen Modells berechnet wurden, das sowohl verschiedene Konvergenzgeschwindigkeiten als auch Exhumierungsraten berücksichtigt. Dies belegt, dass der Torlesse Keil stark von der subduzierten pazifischen Platte entkoppelt war und die Deformation hauptsächlich durch den Fluß der Sedimente in und aus dem Keil bestimmt wurde.