Captura-recaptura como método epidemiológico a aplicarà esclerose múltipla

Tese de Doutoramento, Neurologia, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Ecologia demogràfica de la perca americana (Micropterus salmoides) a l'Estany de Banyoles

L'Estany de Banyoles, sistema peculiar tant des del punt de vista de la seva formació geològica com de les seves característiques limnològiques, conté actualment una comunitat de peixos profundament modificada respecte de la comunitat original. La perca americana (Micropterus salmoides), introduïda a finals dels anys seixanta del segle XX, és avui una de les espècies dominants en aquesta comunitat, i ocupa sobretot l'hàbitat litoral de l'Estany. Es tracta d'una espècie molt ben estudiada a Nord Amèrica des de diverses disciplines de la biologia i des de fa diverses dècades, cosa que ha comportat que actualment es disposi d'un gran volum d'informació sobre ella. Amb tot, fora del seu continent d'origen ha rebut poca atenció, malgrat l'amplia expansió que ha experimentat arreu del món. En aquesta tesi doctoral s'han abordat, amb un enfocament descriptiu, aspectes fins ara desconeguts per a l'espècie a l'Estany de Banyoles, a la península ibèrica i fins i tot a Europa. Concretament, se n'ha analitzat la condició, el creixement i la demografia, així com les seves variacions temporals. Amb aquesta finalitat, s'ha dissenyat un mostreig composat de deu campanyes de pesca intensives més alguns petits mostrejos addicionals intercalats, mostreig que s'ha allargat des del juliol del 1997 i fins el novembre del 1999. La captura dels exemplars s'ha realitzat mitjançant una tècnica de pesca elèctrica amb una embarcació posada a punt expressament per a aquest estudi, la qual s'ha mostrat considerablement eficient malgrat les dificultats que ofereix el medi. S'ha realitzat un mostreig de marcatge-recaptura basat en la mutilació d'aletes i, en alguns casos, en el marcatge amb pintura acrílica. Només en la darrera campanya (novembre del 1999) s'ha sacrificat una part important de les captures a fi de retirar-ne els otòlits per a la determinació de l'edat. Pel que fa a l'anàlisi de les dades, s'ha aplicat un ampli ventall de mètodes i models per a cada un dels aspectes estudiats, a fi de contrastar-ne els resultats i validar-ne la seva fiabilitat. En el cas de la condició, s'han aplicat mètodes d'anàlisi de la covariància (ANCOVA) i altres mètodes anàlegs, així com, paral·lelament, regressions i anàlisis derivades a partir de la relació longitud-pes. En l'estudi del creixement, s'han realitzat ajustaments de diversos models mitjançant regressions sobre dades de mida a l'edat i sobre dades d'increments de mida observats per interval de temps. També s'han aplicat anàlisis de freqüències de longitud, i, finalment, s'han aplicat mètodes de retrocàlcul a partir dels increments anuals del radi observats en els otòlits. Finalment, en el cas de l'estudi de la demografia, s'han aplicat models de marcatge-recaptura per a l'estimació de la grandària poblacional i de la supervivència, i, a més, s'han ajustat diversos models continus de supervivència sobre aquestes estimacions prèvies. També s'han estimat les capturabilitats associades a la nova tècnica de captura. Per una altra banda, s'ha implementat i realitzat un mostreig sobre la població de pescadors esportius de l'Estany encarat a determinar, bàsicament, la pressió de pesca a què es veu sotmesa l'espècie. Els resultats mostren sobretot una alta estabilitat interanual en tots els aspectes estudiats, que s'explica per l'estabilitat ambiental que, al seu torn, és característica d'aquest ecosistema lacustre. Això reverteix en una longevitat màxima observada que iguala la màxima descrita a la literatura per a l'espècie. Alhora, també s'han descrit fortes oscil·lacions estacionals tant en la condició, com en el creixement, com també en la supervivència, les quals, però, presenten certes diferències en la seva temporalitat, cosa que indica una certa diferenciació en els factors que les regulen.

Contrasting Seasonal Survivorship of Two Migratory Songbirds Wintering in Threatened Mangrove Forests

Long-distance migrants wintering in tropical regions face a number of critical conservation threats throughout their lives, but seasonal estimates of key demographic parameters such as winter survival are rare. Using mist-netting-based mark-recapture data collected in coastal Costa Rica over a six-year period, we examined variation in within- and between-winter survivorship of the Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea; 753 young and 376 adults banded), a declining neotropical habitat specialist that depends on threatened mangrove forests during the nonbreeding season. We derived parallel seasonal survivorship estimates for the Northern Waterthrush (Seiurus noveboracensis; 564 young and 93 adults banded), a cohabitant mangrove specialist that has not shown the same population decline in North America, to assess whether contrasting survivorship might contribute to the observed differences in the species’ population trajectories. Although average annual survival probability was relatively similar between the two species for both young and adult birds, monthly estimates indicated that relative to Northern Waterthrush, Prothonotary Warblers exhibited: greater interannual variation in survivorship, especially within winters; greater variation in survivorship among the three study sites; lower average between-winter survivorship, particularly among females, and; a sharp decline in between-winter survivorship from 2003 to 2009 for both age groups and both sexes. Rather than identifying one seasonal vital rate as a causal factor of Prothonotary Warbler population declines, our species comparison suggests that the combination of variable within-winter survival with decreasing between-winter survival demands a multi-seasonal approach to the conservation of this and other tropical-wintering migrants.

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

Conditional male dimorphism and alternative reproductive tactics in a Neotropical arachnid (Opiliones)

In arthropods, most cases of morphological dimorphism within males are the result of a conditional evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) with status-dependent tactics. In conditionally male-dimorphic species, the status` distributions of male morphs often overlap, and the environmentally cued threshold model (ET) states that the degree of overlap depends on the genetic variation in the distribution of the switchpoints that determine which morph is expressed in each value of status. Here we describe male dimorphism and alternative mating behaviors in the harvestman Serracutisoma proximum. Majors express elongated second legs and use them in territorial fights; minors possess short second legs and do not fight, but rather sneak into majors` territories and copulate with egg-guarding females. The static allometry of second legs reveals that major phenotype expression depends on body size (status), and that the switchpoint underlying the dimorphism presents a large amount of genetic variation in the population, which probably results from weak selective pressure on this trait. With a mark-recapture study, we show that major phenotype expression does not result in survival costs, which is consistent with our hypothesis that there is weak selection on the switchpoint. Finally, we demonstrate that switchpoint is independent of status distribution. In conclusion, our data support the ET model prediction that the genetic correlation between status and switchpoint is low, allowing the status distribution to evolve or to fluctuate seasonally, without any effect on the position of the mean switchpoint.

Population structure, habitat use and conservation of short-finned pilot whales Globicephala macrorhynchus in the Archipelago of Madeira

This thesis provides information on the grouping structure, survival, abundance, dive characteristics and habitat preferences of short-finned pilot whales occurring in the oceanic archipelago of Madeira (Portugal, NE Atlantic), based on data collected between 2001-2011, and contributes for its conservation. Photo-identification methods and genetic analyses demonstrated that there is a large degree of variability in site fidelity, including resident, regular visitor and transient whales, and that they may not be genetically isolated. It is proposed that the pilot whales encountered in Madeira belong to a single population encompassing several clans, possibly three clans of island-associated (i.e. resident and regular visitor) whales and others of transients, each containing two to three matrilineal pods. Mark-recapture methods estimated that the island-associated community is composed of less than 150 individuals and that their survival rate is within the range of other long-lived cetacean species, and that around 300 whales of different residency patterns uses the southern area of the island of Madeira from mid-summer to mid-autumn. No significant trend was observed between years. Time-depth recorders deployed in adult whales during daytime revealed that they spend over ¾ of their time at the surface, that they have a low diving rate, and that transient whales also forage during their passage. The analyses of visual data collected from nautical and aerial line-transect surveys indicate a core/preferred habitat area in the south-east of the island of Madeira. That area is used for resting, socializing, foraging, breeding, calving and birthing. Thus, that area should be considered as an important habitat for this species, at least seasonally (during autumn) when the species is more abundant, and included in conservation plans. No direct threat needing urgent measures was identified, although the impact of some activities like whale-watching or marine traffic should be assessed.

Ecology and conservation of bottlenose dolphins in Madeira Archipelago, Portugal

This study aimed to provide an insight on the ecology of the bottlenose dolphin population in Madeira archipelago. To achieve this, population structure; group dynamics, site-fidelity, residency and movement patterns within and out of the study area; survival and abundance estimates and spatial and temporal distribution and habitat preferences related to physiographic parameters using data collected between 2001-2011, were investigated. Photo-identification data analysis revealed strong evidences that bottlenose dolphins seen in the archipelago of Madeira belong to an open population with regular recruitment of new animals to the area. This population exhibited a typical fission-fusion society, in which short-term acquaintances prevail, with only a few long-lasting associations. Photo-identification methods demonstrated that there is a large variability in residency pattern, with resident, transient and migrant individuals. Only a small number of dolphins were found to be resident (4.3%). Social network diagram as well as SLAR analysis supported the existence of a mixed population of residents, migrants and transients. Mark-recapture methods estimated a high survival rate, within the range of other long-lived cetacean species. The resident community is composed of app. 180 individuals. In addition, around 400 dolphins of different residency patterns were found to use the south area of Madeira Island. Spatial distribution indicated that bottlenose dolphins were regularly found in shallow and closer to shore areas, suggesting the existence of biological processes influenced by bathymetry. Moreover, temporal patterns revealed no strong seasonal fluctuation in the presence of bottlenose dolphins in Madeira archipelago waters. Bottlenose dolphins are listed under the Annex II of the EU habitats Directive that requires the designation of Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) for this species; as such, the knowledge gained through this work can be used by governmental authorities to the establishment and management of areas for the conservation of bottlenose dolphin in Madeira archipelago.

A rede de marcação e recaptura: o caso de borboletas do gênero heliconius

(The Mark and Recapture Network: a Heliconius case study). The current pace of habitat destruction, especially in tropical landscapes, has increased the need for understanding minimum patch requirements and patch distance as tools for conserving species in forest remnants. Mark recapture and tagging studies have been instrumental in providing parameters for functional models. Because of their popularity, ease of manipulation and well known biology, butterflies have become model in studies of spatial structure. Yet, most studies on butterflies movement have focused on temperate species that live in open habitats, in which forest patches are barrier to movement. This study aimed to view and review data from mark-recapture as a network in two species of butterfly (Heliconius erato and Heliconius melpomene). A work of marking and recapture of the species was carried out in an Atlantic forest reserve located about 20km from the city of Natal (RN). Mark recapture studies were conducted in 3 weekly visits during January-February and July-August in 2007 and 2008. Captures were more common in two sections of the dirt road, with minimal collection in the forest trail. The spatial spread of captures was similar in the two species. Yet, distances between recaptures seem to be greater for Heliconius erato than for Heliconius melpomene. In addition, the erato network is more disconnected, suggesting that this specie has shorter traveling patches. Moving on to the network, both species have similar number of links (N) and unweighed vertices (L). However, melpomene has a weighed network 50% more connections than erato. These network metrics suggest that erato has more compartmentalized network and restricted movement than melpomene. Thus, erato has a larger number of disconnected components, nC, in the network, and a smaller network diameter. The frequency distribution of network connectivity for both species was better explained by a Power-law than by a random, Poissom distribution, showing that the Power-law provides a better fit than the Poisson for both species. Moreover, the Powerlaw erato is much better adjusted than in melpomene, which should be linked to the small movements that erato makes in the network

Sobrevivência e tamanho populacional do Tiê-preto Tachyphonus Rufus (aves: thraupidae) em fragmento de restinga no extremo Norte da Mata Atlântica

For a long time, we believed in the pattern that tropical and south hemisphere species have high survival. Nowadays results began to contradict this pattern, indicating the need for further studies. Despite the advanced state of the study of bird population parameters, little is known about their variation throughout the year and the factors affecting them. Reproduction, for example, is one factor that may alter adult survival rates, because during this process the breeding pair allocates resources to maintain itself to maintain offspring, making itself more susceptible to diseases and predation. The aim of this study was to estimate survival and population size of a Central and South America passerine, Tachyphonus rufus (Boddaert, 1783), testing hypotheses about the factors that define these parameters. We performed data collection between Nov/2010 and ago/2012 in 12 ha plot, in a fragment of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to generate estimates using Closed Design Robust model in the program MARK. We generated Multi-state models to test some assumptions inherent to Closed Robust Design. The influence of co-variables (time, rain and reproductive cycle) and the effect of transient individuals were measured. Capture, recapture and apparent survival parameters were defined by reproductive cycle, while temporary dispersal was influence by rain. The estimates showed a higher apparent survival during the non-breeding period (92% ± 1%) than during breeding (40% ± 9%), revealing a cost of reproduction and suggesting a trade-off between surviving and reproducing. The low annual survival observed (34%) did not corroborate the pattern of high rates expected for a tropical bird. The largest population size was estimated to be 56 individuals in Nov/11, explained by high recruitment of juveniles, while the lowest observed in May/12: 10 individuals, probably as a result of massive influx of competitor species. Results from this study add to the growing literature on life history of Neotropical species. We encourage studies like this especially in Brazil, where there are few information, and suggest that covariates related to habitat quality and environmental changes should be tested, so that we can generate increasingly reliable models

Movements of bats (Mammalia, Chiroptera) in Atlantic Forest remnants in southern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Temporal trends in incidence of Type 1 diabetes between 1986 and 2006 in Brazil

Background: Scarce information is available about the variation in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes in the Brazilian population in the last decades. Aim: The objective of this study was to assess the long-term trends (1986-2006) in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes in Bauru, São Paulo State, Brazil. Subjects and methods: The annual incidence of Type 1 diabetes (per 100,000 per yr) from 1986 to 2006 was determined in children yr of age, using the capture and recapture method. Results: A total of 176 cases were diagnosed in the study population. The overall incidence was 10.4/100,000 with a range of 2.82/100,000 in 1987 to 18.49/100,000 in 2002 representing a 6.56-fold increase within the same population. The estimated incidence, using the capture and recapture method varied from 2.82/100,000 per yr in 1987 to 27.20/100,000 per yr in 2002, representing a 9.6-fold variation. The global pattern of incidence variation was categorized as high (10-19.99/100,000 per yr), and very high (20/100,000 per yr) in 71.43% of the study-years. Incidence was slightly higher among females, Caucasians, children in the 5-9 yr of age range and belonging to lower socio-economic classes. Most diagnoses were established during the colder months and/or with higher pluviometric indexes. Conclusions: The incidence of Type 1 diabetes in children is increasing in Bauru, São Paulo State, Brazil, and the global pattern of incidence was classified as high or very high, mainly in the last 10 yr. All Brazilian regions should be involved in the study. (J. Endocrinol. Invest. 33: 373-377, 2010) (C)2010, Editrice Kurtis

Morcegos frugívoros no uso do hábitat fragmentado e seu potencial para recuperação de áreas degradadas: subsídios para uma nova ferramenta voltada à conservação

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Population structure of a native and an alien species of snail in an urban area of the Atlantic Rainforest

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)