A Longitudinal Evaluation Of Anti-fviii Antibodies Demonstrated Igg4 Subclass Is Mainly Correlated With High-titre Inhibitor In Haemophilia A Patients.

The development of inhibitory antibodies against factor VIII (FVIII) (inhibitor) is the major complication in haemophilia A patients. The FVIII-binding antibodies development comprises a polyclonal immunoglobulin (Ig) G response. Recent studies showed strong correlation between the presence of neutralizing anti-FVIII antibodies (inhibitors) and IgG4 subclass. The aim of this study was to evaluate anti-FVIII IgG subclasses in haemophilia A patients with inhibitor both in a cross-sectional and in a longitudinal analysis. Inhibitors were determined by Nijmegen-Bethesda assay. Anti-FVIII IgG subclasses were performed by ELISA, and samples from 20 healthy individuals were used to validate the test. We studied 25 haemophilia A patients with inhibitor, previously treated exclusively with plasma-derived FVIII concentrates or bypassing agents. The IgG subclasses distributions were evaluated in two groups of patients classified according to inhibitor response. IgG1 and IgG4 antibodies were most prominent in haemophilia A patients with inhibitors when compared with IgG2 and IgG3. This study reports for the first time the behaviour of FVIII-binding IgG1 and IgG4 subclasses in a longitudinal analysis, in a clinical setting, of high-response inhibitor haemophilia A patients, showing the correlation of IgG4 and the inhibitor titres. In spite of being considered a non-pathologic antibody subclass with anti-inflammatory properties in other situations, IgG4 is correlated with the presence of high-titre inhibitor in the haemophilia setting. The comprehension of the IgG4 role in immune response may be crucial to establish the process for designing specific tolerance to FVIII.

Irrompimento do primeiro molar permanente em crianças de 5 e 6 anos de idade: implicações da análise longitudinal para prevenção da cárie oclusal

O tempo de irrompimento dentário é essencial para o planejamento de medidas de prevenção da cárie oclusal. Com a ampliação do ensino fundamental de oito para nove anos de duração, um número maior de crianças entre cinco e seis anos de idade é incluído na primeira série do ensino fundamental. OBJETIVO: O objetivo foi estimar as tendências do irrompimento dos primeiros molares permanentes em meninos e meninas de 5 e 6 anos de idade. MÉTODOS: Em estudo longitudinal, espaços dentários de 497 crianças de 60 meses e mais de idade foram examinados quatro vezes por um dentista calibrado (kappa > 0,97) durante 18 meses. O primeiro molar permanente foi considerado irrompido quando qualquer parte de sua superfície podia ser tocada por uma sonda de ponta esférica. A idade dos participantes foi medida em meses. Intervalos para 95% de confiança dos valores de prevalência e incidência foram apurados conforme o sexo para três coortes etárias: 60,0 a 65,9; 66,0 a 71,9; 72,0 a 77,9 meses. A razão entre as taxas de incidência foi estimada por meio de análise de regressão de Poisson. RESULTADOS: A maioria das crianças entre 66,0 e 71,9 meses e entre 72,0 e 77,9 meses tem pelo menos um molar permanente irrompido. No grupo de 66,0 a 71,9 meses, de cada três crianças pelo menos uma apresentou os quatro primeiros molares permanentes irrompidos. CONCLUSÃO. As tendências de irrompimento observadas justificam a necessidade da adoção de medidas de vigilância e de proteção específica em relação à lesão de cárie oclusal.

Boston naming test results for healthy older Australians: A longitudinal and cross-sectional study

This study reports on a sample of normal Australian elderly who were assessed for naming ability using the Boston Naming Test (BNT). The study aimed to examine and compare the changes in naming ability, using both longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis, and determine the relationships between naming ability and age, educational level, visual acuity and gender and cultural relevance. Contradictory findings were produced regarding age and were dependent on the research design. Longitudinal analysis showed no age-related change in naming ability in subjects over a four-period. In contrast, cross-sectional analysis showed a weak but significant correlation between age and naming ability. Educational level, visual acuity and gender were unrelated to changes in naming ability over time, and unrelated to naming ability across the cohort of elderly. The Australian elderly performed better on the modified Australian version of the BNT than on the original American version. Thus, clinicians need to be cautious when interpreting the results of the BNT for elderly and for populations outside North America. The results of this study also indicate a need for further longitudinal research of a greater duration to establish age-related decline in naming ability.

Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data on breast cancer

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências (Especialidade em Matemática)

Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-h recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.

Analysis of antiviral immunity in primary and chronic infections

Several evidences in humans underscored the contribution of CD4 and CD8 T-cell responses in controlling viral and bacterial infections. However, CD4 and CD8 Τ cells have distinct and specific effector functions leading to a hierarchical importance in responding to different types of pathogens. In this context, the present work aimed to investigate distinct CD8 T-cell features potentially influencing T-cell efficacy against viral infection. To achieve this-objective, CD8 Τ cells derived from HIV-infected patients and healthy donors harbouring virus-specific immune responses or immunized with an HTV vaccine candidate were studied. In particular, we performed a comprehensive cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis to characterize the function, the phenotype and the functional avidity of HIV-specific CD8 Τ cells during acute (PHI) and chronic infection and, in particular, we investigated immunological parameters potentially associated with the functional avidity of HIV-specific CD8 Τ cells. In addition, we studied the expression pattern of co-inhibitory molecules and the influence of CD 160 on the functions of CD8 Τ cells in absence of chronic infections. From these analyses we observed that the functional avidity of HIV-specific CD8 T- cell responses was significantly lower in acute than in chronic infection, but was not different between chronic progressive and non-progressive patients. Functional avidity remained low after several years of antiretroviral therapy in PHI patients, but increased in patients experiencing a virus rebound following treatment interruption in association with a massive renewal of the global CD8 complementarity-determining region 3 of the TCR. The functional avidity was also directly associated to T-cell exhaustion. In individuals with no sign of HIV or Hepatitis A, Β or C virus infection, CD8 Τ cells expressed higher levels of co-inhibitory molecules than CD4 Τ cells and this was dependent on the stage of T-cell differentiation and activation. The expression of CD 160 impaired the proliferation capacity and IL-2 production of CD8 Τ cells and was reduced upon CD8 T-cell activation, entitling CD 160 as unique marker of CD8 T-cell exhaustion. The CD 160 blockade restored the proliferation capacity of virus-specific CD8 Τ cells providing a potential new target for immunotherapy. All together, these results expand our knowledge regarding the interplay between the immune system and the viruses. - De nombreuses études chez l'Homme ont mis en évidence la contribution des réponses cellulaires Τ CD4 et CD8 dans le contrôle des infections virales et bactériennes. En particulier, les lymphocytes Τ ont différentes fonctions effectrices spécifiques qui leur confèrent un rôle clé lors d'infections par différents pathogènes. Ce travail vise à étudier différentes caractéristiques des cellules Τ CD8 affectant l'efficacité des réponses cellulaires contre les virus. Pour atteindre cet objectif nous avons étudié les cellules Τ CD8 provenant de patients infectés par le VIH et de donneurs sains avec des réponses immunitaires naturelles ou vaccinales contre des virus. Nous avons effectué plusieurs analyses transversales et longitudinales des fonctions, du phénotype et de l'avidité fonctionnelle des lymphocytes Τ CD8 spécifiques au VIH au cours d'infections aiguës et chroniques; en particulier, nous avons étudié les paramètres immunologiques qui pourraient être associés à l'avidité fonctionnelle. De plus, nous avons investigué le profil d'expression des principales molécules co-inhibitrices et en particulier le rôle du CD 160 dans les fonctions des lymphocytes Τ CD8. Sur la base de ces analyses, nous avons constaté que l'avidité fonctionnelle des cellules Τ CD8 spécifiques au VIH était significativement plus faible lors infections aiguës que lors d'infections chroniques, mais n'était, par contre, pas différente entre les patients avec des infections chroniques progressives et non progressives. L'avidité fonctionnelle reste faible après plusieurs années de traitement antirétroviral, mais augmente chez les patients subissant un rebond viral, et donc exposés à des hautes virémies, suite à l'interruption du traitement. Cette augmentation d'avidité des lymphocytes Τ CD8, liée à un épuisement fonctionnel accru, était quantitativement directement associée à un renouvellement massif du TCR. Indépendamment de l'infection par le VIH, les cellules Τ CD8 expriment des niveaux plus élevés de molécules co-inhibitrices (PD-1, 2B4 et CD 160) par rapport aux cellules Τ CD4 et ceci dépend de leur stade de différenciation et d'activation. En particulier, CD 160 semble être un marqueur clé d'épuisement cellulaire des cellules Τ CD8, et donc une nouvelle cible potentielle pour l'immunothérapie, car a) son expression réduit la capacité proliférative et la production d'IL-2 b) CD 160 diminue suite à 1'activation et c) le blocage de CD 160 redonne la capacité proliférative aux cellules Τ CD8 spécifiques aux virus. - Le système immunitaire est un ensemble de cellules, tissus et organes indispensables pour limiter l'entrée des pathogènes à travers la peau et les muqueuses. Parmi les différentes cellules composant le système immunitaire, les cellules Τ CD4 et CD8 sont fondamentales pour le contrôle des infections virales et bactériennes. Les moyens pour combattre les différents pathogènes peuvent être cependant très variables. Les cellules Τ CD8, qui sont indispensables pour la lutte contre les virus, peuvent avoir différents niveaux de sensibilité; les cellules qui répondent à de faibles quantités d'antigène ont une forte sensibilité. Suite à une première infection virale, les cellules Τ CD8 ont une sensibilité plus faible que lors d'expositions répétées au même virus. En effet, la réexposition au pathogène induit une augmentation de sensibilité, grâce au recrutement et/ou à l'expansion de cellules Τ dotées d'une sensibilité plus élevée. Les cellules Τ CD8 avec une plus haute sensibilité semblent être caractérisées par une perte de fonctionnalité (épuisement fonctionnel associé à une haute expression de molécules dites inhibitrices). En absence d'infection, la fonction des molécules inhibitrices n'est pas encore clairement définie. Les cellules Τ CD8 montrent un niveau d'expression plus élevé de ces molécules par rapport aux cellules Τ CD4. Ceci dépend de l'état des cellules. Parmi ces molécules, le CD160 est associé à l'incapacité des cellules à proliférer et à produire de l'IL-2, une protéine importante pour la prolifération et la survie cellulaire. L'incapacité des cellules exprimant le CD 160 à proliférer en réponse à des virus peut être restaurée par le blocage fonctionnel du récepteur CD 160. Cette étude étoffe notre connaissance du rôle des cellules Τ CD8 ainsi que des conséquences induites par leur épuisement fonctionnel. Ces informations sont fondamentales pour le développement de nouvelles stratégies thérapeutiques et vaccinales.

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Associations between Body Mass Index and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Adolescents in a Country of the African Region.

We assessed the association between several cardiometabolic risk factors (CRFs) (blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, uric acid, and glucose) in 390 young adults aged 19-20 years in Seychelles (Indian Ocean, Africa) and body mass index (BMI) measured either at the same time (cross-sectional analysis) or at the age of 12-15 years (longitudinal analysis). BMI tracked markedly between age of 12-15 and age of 19-20. BMI was strongly associated with all considered CRFs in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, with some exceptions. Comparing overweight participants with those having a BMI below the age-specific median, the odds ratios for high blood pressure were 5.4/4.7 (male/female) cross-sectionally and 2.5/3.9 longitudinally (P < 0.05). Significant associations were also found for most other CRFs, with some exceptions. In linear regression analysis including both BMI at age of 12-15 and BMI at age of 19-20, only BMI at age of 19-20 remained significantly associated with most CRFs. We conclude that CRFs are predicted strongly by either current or past BMI levels in adolescents and young adults in this population. The observation that only current BMI remained associated with CRFs when including past and current levels together suggests that weight control at a later age may be effective in reducing CRFs in overweight children irrespective of past weight status.

Longitudinal investigation of the faecal microbiota of healthy full-term infants using fluorescence in situ hybridization and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis.

From birth onwards, the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of infants progressively acquires a complex range of micro-organisms. It is thought that by 2 years of age the GI microbial population has stabilized. Within the developmental period of the infant GI microbiota, weaning is considered to be most critical, as the infant switches from a milk-based diet (breast and/or formula) to a variety of food components. Longitudinal analysis of the biological succession of the infant GI/faecal microbiota is lacking. In this study, faecal samples were obtained regularly from 14 infants from 1 month to 18 months of age. Seven of the infants (including a set of twins) were exclusively breast-fed and seven were exclusively formula-fed prior to weaning, with 175 and 154 faecal samples, respectively, obtained from each group. Diversity and dynamics of the infant faecal microbiota were analysed by using fluorescence in situ hybridization and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. Overall, the data demonstrated large inter- and intra-individual differences in the faecal microbiological profiles during the study period. However, the infant faecal microbiota merged with time towards a climax community within and between feeding groups. Data from the twins showed the highest degree of similarity both quantitatively and qualitatively. Inter-individual variation was evident within the infant faecal microbiota and its development, even within exclusively formula-fed infants receiving the same diet. These data can be of help to future clinical trials (e.g. targeted weaning products) to organize protocols and obtain a more accurate outline of the changes and dynamics of the infant GI microbiota.

Avaliação longitudinal do impacto da saúde bucal na estratégia saúde da família em Natal

As a result of the financial incentive provided by the GM / MS 1.444, since 2000, Brazil has experienced a substantial increase in the number of oral health services at the Family Health Strategy. There is, however, evidence that these teams have produced qualitatively different experiences which do not translate necessarily into improved quality of life and health. Thus, evaluative research of great importance. This study aims to assess the impact of the Family Health Strategy in oral health in a longitudinal perspective natalense the years 2006 and 2009. This is an intervention study whose design is a community trial in parallel, nearly randomized. The sample consisted of census tracts covered by oral health teams in the Family Health and the Traditional Model (Basic Health Units and non-FHS Program of Community Health Agents and areas not covered.) The sample was determined by drawing ten census tracts to form the experimental group and ten other sectors for the control group by pairing intentional based on socio-economic and geographic. To check the net effect of the intervention was performed multivariate analysis by Poisson regression. As a result of cross-sectional analysis of year 2009, it was found that the effects of the ESF in Natal were satisfactory only for the variables of injuries and for other purposes without and with negative impact on stock coverage reclaimers. However, the longitudinal analysis revealed that the ESB / ESF improved their performance in dealing with grievances, access and coverage of the type of actions and this fact is independent of age, sex and social and economic conditions. In other employees' words are related to the presence of the Family Health Strategy in the region. However it does not say that both models under study (the Family Health Strategy Model and Traditional) are different in terms of performance and it is pertinent to reflect on the need for further development of evaluation studies that use other approaches able to clarify the dynamics of the process whose results can come to the knowledge of the actors responsible for leading the ESF and encourage them to incorporate the assessment in their routine

LONGITUDINAL DISTRIBUTION OF MACROALGAE IN 2 TROPICAL LOTIC ECOSYSTEMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL

Macroalgal species richness and diversity were analysed along a longitudinal profile in small and large scales during Spring, Fall and Winter, respectively in a small stream and a mid size river in the northwest region of São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil (20 degrees 23'-20 degrees 49'S, 49 degrees 26'-51 degrees 19'W). Longitudinal variation in species richness and diversity in small scale was strongly associated with incident light. Microhabitat distribution (from data taken by quadrat technique) revealed no significant correlations. Principal coordinates analysis (PCO) indicated no consistent groupings among sampling sites in distinct seasons (Spring, Fall and Winter). Longitudinal analysis in large scale revealed different patterns in the two seasons sampled (Spring and Winter), whereas species diversity presented a consistent tl end: high upstream, low in mid reaches and higher downstream. It was associated with type of substratum in Spring, rocky substrata presenting the highest values for species richness and diversity. Weak correlations were observed in Winter. Microhabitat distribution showed significant correlations between species abundance and the following variables: positive for rocky substrata and current velocity and negative for sandyclayish substratum and macrophyte-dominated substratum. PCO delineated only one consistent grouping formed by the two headwater sites. Small scale macroalgal distribution corroborated the longitudinal pattern predicted by the River Continuum Concept, whereas the large scale approach showed a distribution more associated with substratum type than to light availability. These results showed an opposite trend in relation to the expected distributional pattern. Longitudinal distribution in macroalgal community structure has yet to be better documented, particularly for tropical streams and no generalization is possible at this stage.

THE INFLUENCE OF CHILDHOOD ABUSE ON LONGITUDINAL COURSE OF RECOVERY IN PSYCHIATRIC REHABILITATION

Background: Empirical outcome studies have identified specific symptomatic, cognitive, emotional and functional sequelae of childhood abuse in people with severe mental illness (SMI). These findings illuminate the need for an integrated understanding of biological, psychological, environmental, and developmental aspects of SMI. Purpose: The purpose of the present study includes the following: 1) to examine reliability and validity of the comprehensive child abuse rating system in a sample of individuals with SMI, 2) to examine the influence of childhood abuse severity on recovery of psychotic symptoms, neurocognition and social-cognition, and social functioning in people with SMI during 12 months of inpatient psychiatric rehabilitation, and 3) to examine moderating effects of social cognition on the relationship between severity of different types of child abuse history and social functioning. Results: In Study I (N=171), the child abuse rating system produced reliable ratings and some subtypes of child abuse history were related to poorer premorbid functioning and cognition, higher overall psychiatric symptoms, and lower social functioning. In Study II (N=161), the longitudinal factor pattern invariance of the measures of social functioning, externality, and psychiatric symptoms were confirmed across 3 time points (e.g., at admission, at 6 months, and at 12 months). In addition, significant but varied linear relationships between subtypes of child abuse and each level of assessment of functioning were identified. In Study III (N=143), the results showed that higher baseline social inference, independent of history of child physical abuse (CPA), played a protective role in improvements in social functioning. High externality appeared to be counter-therapeutic for individuals with no history of CPA but protective for individuals with a more severe history of CPA. Conclusion: The child abuse rating system appears to provide reliable and valid assessment of subtypes of child abuse history of individuals with SMI. Considering the extreme heterogeneity in both SMI and child maltreatment, the current finding sheds light on providing individualized treatment and assessment planning for individuals with SMI and a history of childhood abuse.

Identifying mechanisms of treatment effects and recovery in rehabilitation of schizophrenia: longitudinal analytic methods

The longitudinal dimension of schizophrenia and related severe mental illness is a key component of theoretical models of recovery. However, empirical longitudinal investigations have been underrepresented in the psychopathology of schizophrenia. Similarly, traditional approaches to longitudinal analysis of psychopathological data have had serious limitations. The utilization of modern longitudinal methods is necessary to capture the complexity of biopsychosocial models of treatment and recovery in schizophrenia. The present paper summarizes empirical data from traditional longitudinal research investigating recovery in symptoms, neurocognition, and social functioning. Studies conducted under treatment as usual conditions are compared to psychosocial intervention studies and potential treatment mechanisms of psychosocial interventions are discussed. Investigations of rehabilitation for schizophrenia using the longitudinal analytic strategies of growth curve and time series analysis are demonstrated. The respective advantages and disadvantages of these modern methods are highlighted. Their potential use for future research of treatment effects and recovery in schizophrenia is also discussed.

Fluid intake and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and kidney function: a population-based longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND Drinking eight glasses of fluid or water each day is widely believed to improve health, but evidence is sparse and conflicting. We aimed to investigate the association between fluid consumption and long-term mortality and kidney function. METHODS We conducted a longitudinal analysis within a prospective, population-based cohort study of 3858 men and women aged 49 years or older residing in Australia. Daily fluid intake from food and beverages not including water was measured using a food frequency questionnaire. We did multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard models for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and a boot-strapping procedure for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). RESULTS Upper and lower quartiles of daily fluid intake corresponded to >3 L and <2 L, respectively. During a median follow-up of 13.1 years (total 43 093 years at risk), 1127 deaths (26.1 per 1000 years at risk) including 580 cardiovascular deaths (13.5 per 1000 years at risk) occurred. Daily fluid intake (per 250 mL increase) was not associated with all-cause [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-1.01)] or cardiovascular mortality [HR 0.98 (95% CI 0.95-1.01)]. Overall, eGFR reduced by 2.2 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (SD 10.9) in the 1207 (31%) participants who had repeat creatinine measurements and this was not associated with fluid intake [adjusted regression coefficient 0.06 mL/min/1.73 m(2) per 250 mL increase (95% CI -0.03 to 0.14)]. CONCLUSIONS Fluid intake from food and beverages excluding water is not associated with improved kidney function or reduced mortality.

Reversal of gender differences in Educational Attainment – historical analysis of the West German Case

Background information: During the late 1970s and the early 1980s, West Germany witnessed a reversal of gender differences in educational attainment, as females began to outperform males. Purpose: The main objective was to analyse which processes were behind the reversal of gender differences in educational attainment after 1945. The theoretical reflections and empirical evidence presented for the US context by DiPrete and Buchmann (Gender-specific trends in the value of education and the emerging gender gap in college completion, Demography 43: 1–24, 2006) and Buchmann, DiPrete, and McDaniel (Gender inequalities in education, Annual Review of Sociology 34: 319–37, 2008) are considered and applied to the West German context. It is suggested that the reversal of gender differences is a consequence of the change in female educational decisions, which are mainly related to labour market opportunities and not, as sometimes assumed, a consequence of a ‘boy’s crisis’. Sample: Several databases, such as the German General Social Survey, the German Socio-economic Panel and the German Life History Study, are employed for the longitudinal analysis of the educational and occupational careers of birth cohorts born in the twentieth century. Design and methods: Changing patterns of eligibility for university studies are analysed for successive birth cohorts and gender. Binary logistic regressions are employed for the statistical modelling of the individuals’ achievement, educational decision and likelihood for social mobility – reporting average marginal effects (AME). Results: The empirical results suggest that women’s better school achievement being constant across cohorts does not contribute to the explanation of the reversal of gender differences in higher education attainment, but the increase of benefits for higher education explains the changing educational decisions of women regarding their transition to higher education. Conclusions: The outperformance of females compared with males in higher education might have been initialised by several social changes, including the expansion of public employment, the growing demand for highly qualified female workers in welfare and service areas, the increasing returns of women’s increased education and training, and the improved opportunities for combining family and work outside the home. The historical data show that, in terms of (married) women’s increased labour market opportunities and female life-cycle labour force participation, the raising rates of women’s enrolment in higher education were – among other reasons – partly explained by their rising access to service class positions across birth cohorts, and the rise of their educational returns in terms of wages and long-term employment.

Prediction of improvement in skin fibrosis in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: a EUSTAR analysis

OBJECTIVES Improvement of skin fibrosis is part of the natural course of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Recognising those patients most likely to improve could help tailoring clinical management and cohort enrichment for clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to identify predictors for improvement of skin fibrosis in patients with dcSSc. METHODS We performed a longitudinal analysis of the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) registry including patients with dcSSc, fulfilling American College of Rheumatology criteria, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7 and follow-up mRSS at 12±2 months. The primary outcome was skin improvement (decrease in mRSS of >5 points and ≥25%) at 1 year follow-up. A respective increase in mRSS was considered progression. Candidate predictors for skin improvement were selected by expert opinion and logistic regression with bootstrap validation was applied. RESULTS From the 919 patients included, 218 (24%) improved and 95 (10%) progressed. Eleven candidate predictors for skin improvement were analysed. The final model identified high baseline mRSS and absence of tendon friction rubs as independent predictors of skin improvement. The baseline mRSS was the strongest predictor of skin improvement, independent of disease duration. An upper threshold between 18 and 25 performed best in enriching for progressors over regressors. CONCLUSIONS Patients with advanced skin fibrosis at baseline and absence of tendon friction rubs are more likely to regress in the next year than patients with milder skin fibrosis. These evidence-based data can be implemented in clinical trial design to minimise the inclusion of patients who would regress under standard of care.