Assessment of airborne microorganisms by real-time PCR: optimistic findings and research challenges

Most airborne microorganisms are natural components of our ecosystem. Soil, vegetation and animals, including humans, are sources for aerial release of these living or dead cells. In the past, assessment of airborne microorganisms was mainly restricted to occupational health concerns. Indeed, in several occupations, exposure to very high concentrations of non-infectious airborne bacteria and fungi, result in allergenic, toxic or irritant reactions. Recently, the threat of bioterrorism and pandemics have highlighted the urgent need to increase knowledge of bioaerosol ecology. More fundamentally, airborne bacterial and fungal communities begin to draw much more consideration from environmental microbiologists, who have neglected this area for a long time. This increased interest of scientists is to a great part due to the development and use of real-time PCR techniques to identify and quantify airborne microorganisms. Even if the advantages of the PCR technology are obvious, researchers are confronted with new problems. This review describes the methodological state of the art in bioaerosols field and emphasizes the future challenges and perspectives of the real-time PCR-based methods for airborne microorganism studies.

Predictability of music descriptor time series and its application to cover song detection

Intuitively, music has both predictable and unpredictable components. In this work we assess this qualitative statement in a quantitative way using common time series models fitted to state-of-the-art music descriptors. These descriptors cover different musical facets and are extracted from a large collection of real audio recordings comprising a variety of musical genres. Our findings show that music descriptor time series exhibit a certain predictability not only for short time intervals, but also for mid-term and relatively long intervals. This fact is observed independently of the descriptor, musical facet and time series model we consider. Moreover, we show that our findings are not only of theoretical relevance but can also have practical impact. To this end we demonstrate that music predictability at relatively long time intervals can be exploited in a real-world application, namely the automatic identification of cover songs (i.e. different renditions or versions of the same musical piece). Importantly, this prediction strategy yields a parameter-free approach for cover song identification that is substantially faster, allows for reduced computational storage and still maintains highly competitive accuracies when compared to state-of-the-art systems.

Organisational Values as "Attractors of Chaos": An Emerging Cultural Change to Manage Organisational Complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

Organisational values as "attractors of chaos": An emerging cultural change to manage organisational complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

Trends and determinants of time in bed in Geneva, Switzerland

STUDY OBJECTIVES: There is limited information regarding sleep duration and determinants in Switzerland. We aimed to assess the trends and determinants of time in bed as a proxy for sleep duration in the Swiss canton of Geneva. METHODS: Data from repeated, independent cross-sectional representative samples of adults (≥ 18 years) of the Geneva population were collected between 2005 and 2011. Self-reported time in bed, education, monthly income, and nationality were assessed by questionnaire. RESULTS: Data from 3,853 participants (50% women, 51.7 ± 10.9 years) were analyzed. No significant trend was observed between 2005 and 2011 regarding time in bed or the prevalence of short (≤ 6 h/day) and long (> 9 h/day) time in bed. Elderly participants reported a longer time in bed (year-adjusted mean ± standard error: 7.67 ± 0.02, 7.82 ± 0.03, and 8.41 ± 0.04 h/day for 35-50, 50-65, and 65+ years, respectively, p < 0.001), while shorter time in bed was reported by non-Swiss participants (7.77 ± 0.03 vs. 7.92 ± 0.03 h/day for Swiss nationals, p < 0.001), participants with higher education (7.92 ± 0.02 for non-university vs. 7.74 ± 0.03 h/day for university, p < 0.001) or higher income (8.10 ± 0.04, 7.84 ± 0.03, and 7.70 ± 0.03 h/day for < 5,000 SFr; 5,000-9,500 SFr, and > 9,500 SFr, respectively, p < 0.001). Multivariable-adjusted polytomous logistic regression showed short and long time in bed to be positively associated with obesity and negatively associated with income. CONCLUSION: In a Swiss adult population, sleep duration as assessed by time in bed did not change significantly between 2005 and 2011. Both clinical and socioeconomic factors influence time in bed.

Persistence of Increased Eotaxin-1 (CCL11) Level in Tears of Patients Wearing Contact Lenses: A Long-Term Follow-Up Study.

BACKGROUND: Eotaxin-1 (CCL11) is a potent eosinophil chemotactic and activating peptide that may be implicated in the pathogenesis of chronic allergic eye disease and has been associated with the wearing of contact lenses (CL) in patients with contact lens papillary conjunctivitis (CLPC). The purpose of this study was to study eotaxin-1 expression in the tears of long-term CL wearers. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Tears were collected with glass capillaries from 15 patients (2 male, 13 female) with various degree of CLPC at 2-year intervals. CLPC severity was graded from 0 to 4 with reference to standard slit-lamp photographs of the superior tarsal conjunctiva. The eotaxin-1 level in the tears was measured by an ELISA, using mouse anti-human eotaxin monoclonal antibodies. RESULTS: The mean age was 32.5 ± 13.3 years (range: 17 - 69 years). The mean interval between the tear collections was 30 ± 4.8 months. The mean concentration of eotaxin was 2150 ± 477 pg/mL and 2486 ± 810 pg/mL for the first and second series, respectively. The difference was not statistically significant (paired Wilcoxon/Kruskal-Wallis, p = 0.803). The mean score of papilla grade was 1.26 ± 0.18 for the first sample and 1.40 ± 0.19 two years later. There was no significant difference of grading between the two time periods (paired Wilcoxon/Kruskal-Wallis, p = 0.751). CONCLUSIONS: the eotaxin-1 level remains up-regulated over a long time period in patients wearing CL, most of them with chronic CLPC. Eotaxin may play a role in the pathogenesis of contact lens intolerance.

Dynamique de recombinaison dans les puits quantiques InGaN/GaN

Nous étudions la recombinaison radiative des porteurs de charges photogénérés dans les puits quantiques InGaN/GaN étroits (2 nm). Nous caractérisons le comportement de la photoluminescence face aux différentes conditions expérimentales telles la température, l'énergie et la puissance de l'excitation et la tension électrique appliquée. Ces mesures montrent que l'émission provient d'états localisés. De plus, les champs électriques, présents nativement dans ces matériaux, n'ont pas une influence dominante sur la recombinaison des porteurs. Nous avons montré que le spectre d'émission se modifie significativement et subitement lorsque la puissance de l'excitation passe sous un certain seuil. L'émission possède donc deux ``phases'' dont nous avons déterminé le diagramme. La phase adoptée dépend à la fois de la puissance, de la température et de la tension électrique appliquée. Nous proposons que la phase à basse puissance soit associée à un état électriquement chargé dans le matériau. Ensuite, nous avons caractérisé la dynamique temporelle de notre échantillon. Le taux de répétition de l'excitation a une influence importante sur la dynamique mesurée. Nous concluons qu'elle ne suit pas une exponentielle étirée comme on le pensait précédemment. Elle est exponentielle à court temps et suit une loi de puissance à grand temps. Ces deux régimes sont lié à un seul et même mécanisme de recombinaison. Nous avons développé un modèle de recombinaison à trois niveaux afin d'expliquer le comportement temporel de la luminescence. Ce modèle suppose l'existence de centres de localisation où les porteurs peuvent se piéger, indépendamment ou non. L'électron peut donc se trouver sur un même centre que le trou ou sur n'importe quel autre centre. En supposant le transfert des porteurs entre centres par saut tunnel on détermine, en fonction de la distribution spatiale des centres, la dynamique de recombinaison. Ce modèle indique que la recombinaison dans les puits InGaN/GaN minces est liée à des agglomérats de centre de localisation.

Caractéristiques et origine fonctionnelle des propriétés fréquentielles du noeud auriculoventriculaire

Le nœud auriculoventriculaire (AV) joue un rôle vital dans le cœur normal et pathologique. Il connecte les oreillettes aux ventricules et, grâce à sa conduction lente, génère un délai entre les contractions auriculaire et ventriculaire permettant d’optimiser le pompage sanguin. Sa conduction lente et sa longue période réfractaire font du nœud AV un filtre d’impulsions auriculaires lors de tachyarythmies assurant ainsi une fréquence ventriculaire plus lente favorable au débit cardiaque. L’optimisation de ce filtrage est une cible dans le traitement de ces arythmies. Malgré ce rôle vital et de nombreuses études, le nœud AV demeure l’objet de plusieurs controverses qui en rendent la compréhension laborieuse. Nos études expérimentales sur des préparations isolées de cœurs de lapin visent à apporter des solutions à certains des problèmes qui limitent la compréhension des propriétés fréquentielles du nœud AV. Le premier problème concerne la définition de la propriété de récupération nodale. On s’accorde généralement sur la dépendance du temps de conduction nodale (intervalle auriculo-Hissien, AH) du temps de récupération qui le précède mais un débat presque centenaire persiste sur la façon de mesurer ce temps de récupération. Selon que l’on utilise à cette fin la longueur du cycle auriculaire (AA) ou l’intervalle His-auriculaire précédent (HA), la même réponse nodale montre des caractéristiques différentes, un paradoxe à ce jour inexpliqué. Le temps de conduction nodale augmente aussi avec le degré et la durée d'une fréquence rapide, un phénomène appelé fatigue. Or, les caractéristiques de la fatigue mesurée varient avec l’indice de récupération utilisé (AA vs. HA). De plus, une troisième propriété appelée facilitation qui entraîne un raccourcissement du temps de conduction diffère aussi avec l’indice de récupération utilisé. Pour établir l’origine de ce problème, nous avons déterminé les différences entre les courbes de récupération (AH compilé en fonction du AA ou HA) pour 30 états fonctionnels nodaux différents. Ces conditions étaient obtenues à l’aide de protocoles permettant la variation du cycle de base (BCL) et du cycle prétest (PTCL), deux paramètres connus pour altérer la fonction nodale. Nous avons pu établir que pour chaque état fonctionnel, la forme de la courbe de récupération et le niveau de fatigue étaient les mêmes pour les deux indices de récupération. Ceci s’applique aussi aux données obtenues à des BCL et PTCL égaux comme dans les protocoles de stimulation prématurée conventionnels couramment utilisés. Nos résultats ont établi pour la première fois que les propriétés nodales de récupération et de fatigue sont indépendantes de l’indice de récupération utilisé. Nos données montrent aussi que les différences entre les courbes de récupération en fonction de l’indice utilisé proviennent d’effets associés aux variations du PTCL. Notre deuxième étude établit à partir des mêmes données pourquoi les variations du PTCL altèrent différemment les courbes de récupération selon l’indice utilisé. Nous avons démontré que ces différences augmentaient en proportion directe avec l’augmentation du temps de conduction au battement prétest. Cette augmentation cause un déplacement systématique de la courbe construite avec l’intervalle AA vers la droite et de celle construite avec l’intervalle HA vers la gauche. Ce résultat met en évidence l’importance de tenir compte des changements du temps de conduction prétest dans l’évaluation de la fonction nodale, un paramètre négligé dans la plupart des études. Ce résultat montre aussi que chacun des deux indices a des limites dans sa capacité d’évaluer le temps de récupération nodale réel lorsque le temps de conduction prétest varie. Lorsque ces limites sont ignorées, comme c’est habituellement le cas, elles entraînent un biais dans l’évaluation des effets de fatigue et de facilitation. Une autre grande difficulté dans l’évaluation des propriétés fréquentielles du nœud AV concerne son état réfractaire. Deux indices sont utilisés pour évaluer la durée de la période réfractaire nodale. Le premier est la période réfractaire efficace (ERPN) définie comme l’intervalle AA le plus long qui n’est pas conduit par le nœud. Le deuxième est la période réfractaire fonctionnelle (FRPN) qui correspond à l’intervalle minimum entre deux activations mesurées à la sortie du nœud. Paradoxalement et pour des raisons obscures, l’ERPN augmente alors que la FRPN diminue avec l’augmentation de la fréquence cardiaque. De plus, ces effets varient grandement avec les sujets, les espèces et l’âge. À partir des mêmes données que pour les deux autres études, nous avons cherché dans la troisième étude l’origine des variations fréquentielles de l’ERPN et de la FRPN. Le raccourcissement du BCL prolonge l’ERPN mais n’affecte pas la FRPN. L’allongement de l’ERPN provient principalement d’un allongement du temps de conduction prétest. Un PTCL court en comparaison avec un BCL court allonge encore plus substantiellement le temps de conduction prétest mais raccourcit en même temps l’intervalle His-auriculaire, ces deux effets opposés s’additionnent pour produire un allongement net de l’ERPN. Le raccourcissement de l’intervalle His-auriculaire par le PTCL court est aussi entièrement responsable pour le raccourcissement de la FRPN. Nous avons aussi établi que, lorsque la composante du temps de conduction prétest est retirée de l’ERPN, un lien linéaire existe entre la FRPN et l’ERPN à cause de leur dépendance commune de l’intervalle His-auriculaire. Le raccourcissement combiné du BCL et du PTCL produit des effets nets prévisibles à partir de leurs effets individuels. Ces effets reproduisent ceux obtenus lors de protocoles prématurés conventionnels. Ces observations supportent un nouveau schème fonctionnel des variations fréquentielles de l’ERPN et de la FRPN à partir des effets distincts du BCL et du PTCL. Elles établissent aussi un nouveau lien entre les variations fréquentielles de l’ERPN et de la FRPN. En conclusion, la modulation fréquentielle de la fonction du nœud AV provient de la combinaison d’effets concurrents cumulatifs liés au cycle de base et non-cumulatifs liés au cycle prétest. Ces effets peuvent être interprétés de façon consistante indépendamment de l’indice de récupération en tenant compte des changements du temps de conduction au battement prétest. Les effets fréquentiels disparates sur l’ERPN et la FRPN sont aussi grandement liés aux changements du temps de conduction prétest. Lorsque l’analyse tient compte de ce facteur, l’ERPN et la FRPN montrent des variations parallèles fortement liées à celles de l’intervalle His-auriculaire. Le nouveau schème fonctionnel des propriétés fréquentielles du nœud AV supporté par nos données aidera à mieux cibler les études sur les mécanismes cellulaires contrôlant la modulation fréquentielle nodale. Nos données pourraient aider à l’interprétation et au contrôle des réponses nodales diverses associées aux tachyarythmies supraventriculaires et à leur traitement pharmacologique. En bref, nos travaux supportent une compréhension factuelle améliorée du comportement fréquentiel du nœud AV, un domaine aux applications multiples en rythmologie cardiaque.

Study on period search methods of variable stars: Application to ASAS and CRTS databases

Study on variable stars is an important topic of modern astrophysics. After the invention of powerful telescopes and high resolving powered CCD’s, the variable star data is accumulating in the order of peta-bytes. The huge amount of data need lot of automated methods as well as human experts. This thesis is devoted to the data analysis on variable star’s astronomical time series data and hence belong to the inter-disciplinary topic, Astrostatistics. For an observer on earth, stars that have a change in apparent brightness over time are called variable stars. The variation in brightness may be regular (periodic), quasi periodic (semi-periodic) or irregular manner (aperiodic) and are caused by various reasons. In some cases, the variation is due to some internal thermo-nuclear processes, which are generally known as intrinsic vari- ables and in some other cases, it is due to some external processes, like eclipse or rotation, which are known as extrinsic variables. Intrinsic variables can be further grouped into pulsating variables, eruptive variables and flare stars. Extrinsic variables are grouped into eclipsing binary stars and chromospheri- cal stars. Pulsating variables can again classified into Cepheid, RR Lyrae, RV Tauri, Delta Scuti, Mira etc. The eruptive or cataclysmic variables are novae, supernovae, etc., which rarely occurs and are not periodic phenomena. Most of the other variations are periodic in nature. Variable stars can be observed through many ways such as photometry, spectrophotometry and spectroscopy. The sequence of photometric observa- xiv tions on variable stars produces time series data, which contains time, magni- tude and error. The plot between variable star’s apparent magnitude and time are known as light curve. If the time series data is folded on a period, the plot between apparent magnitude and phase is known as phased light curve. The unique shape of phased light curve is a characteristic of each type of variable star. One way to identify the type of variable star and to classify them is by visually looking at the phased light curve by an expert. For last several years, automated algorithms are used to classify a group of variable stars, with the help of computers. Research on variable stars can be divided into different stages like observa- tion, data reduction, data analysis, modeling and classification. The modeling on variable stars helps to determine the short-term and long-term behaviour and to construct theoretical models (for eg:- Wilson-Devinney model for eclips- ing binaries) and to derive stellar properties like mass, radius, luminosity, tem- perature, internal and external structure, chemical composition and evolution. The classification requires the determination of the basic parameters like pe- riod, amplitude and phase and also some other derived parameters. Out of these, period is the most important parameter since the wrong periods can lead to sparse light curves and misleading information. Time series analysis is a method of applying mathematical and statistical tests to data, to quantify the variation, understand the nature of time-varying phenomena, to gain physical understanding of the system and to predict future behavior of the system. Astronomical time series usually suffer from unevenly spaced time instants, varying error conditions and possibility of big gaps. This is due to daily varying daylight and the weather conditions for ground based observations and observations from space may suffer from the impact of cosmic ray particles. Many large scale astronomical surveys such as MACHO, OGLE, EROS, xv ROTSE, PLANET, Hipparcos, MISAO, NSVS, ASAS, Pan-STARRS, Ke- pler,ESA, Gaia, LSST, CRTS provide variable star’s time series data, even though their primary intention is not variable star observation. Center for Astrostatistics, Pennsylvania State University is established to help the astro- nomical community with the aid of statistical tools for harvesting and analysing archival data. Most of these surveys releases the data to the public for further analysis. There exist many period search algorithms through astronomical time se- ries analysis, which can be classified into parametric (assume some underlying distribution for data) and non-parametric (do not assume any statistical model like Gaussian etc.,) methods. Many of the parametric methods are based on variations of discrete Fourier transforms like Generalised Lomb-Scargle peri- odogram (GLSP) by Zechmeister(2009), Significant Spectrum (SigSpec) by Reegen(2007) etc. Non-parametric methods include Phase Dispersion Minimi- sation (PDM) by Stellingwerf(1978) and Cubic spline method by Akerlof(1994) etc. Even though most of the methods can be brought under automation, any of the method stated above could not fully recover the true periods. The wrong detection of period can be due to several reasons such as power leakage to other frequencies which is due to finite total interval, finite sampling interval and finite amount of data. Another problem is aliasing, which is due to the influence of regular sampling. Also spurious periods appear due to long gaps and power flow to harmonic frequencies is an inherent problem of Fourier methods. Hence obtaining the exact period of variable star from it’s time series data is still a difficult problem, in case of huge databases, when subjected to automation. As Matthew Templeton, AAVSO, states “Variable star data analysis is not always straightforward; large-scale, automated analysis design is non-trivial”. Derekas et al. 2007, Deb et.al. 2010 states “The processing of xvi huge amount of data in these databases is quite challenging, even when looking at seemingly small issues such as period determination and classification”. It will be beneficial for the variable star astronomical community, if basic parameters, such as period, amplitude and phase are obtained more accurately, when huge time series databases are subjected to automation. In the present thesis work, the theories of four popular period search methods are studied, the strength and weakness of these methods are evaluated by applying it on two survey databases and finally a modified form of cubic spline method is intro- duced to confirm the exact period of variable star. For the classification of new variable stars discovered and entering them in the “General Catalogue of Vari- able Stars” or other databases like “Variable Star Index“, the characteristics of the variability has to be quantified in term of variable star parameters.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Summer drought in northern midlatitudes in a time-dependent CO2 climate experiment

A time-dependent climate-change experiment with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model has been used to study changes in the occurrence of drought in summer in southern Europe and central North America. In both regions, precipitation and soil moisture are reduced in a climate of greater atmospheric carbon dioxide. A detailed investigation of the hydrology of the model shows that the drying of the soil comes about through an increase in evaporation in winter and spring, caused by higher temperatures and reduced snow cover, and a decrease in the net input of water in summer. Evaporation is reduced in summer because of the drier soil, but the reduction in precipitation is larger. Three extreme statistics are used to define drought, namely the frequency of low summer precipitation, the occurrence of long dry spells, and the probability of dry soil. The last of these is arguably of the greatest practical importance, but since it is based on soil moisture, of which there are very few observations, the authors’ simulation of it has the least confidence. Furthermore, long time series for daily observed precipitation are not readily available from a sufficient number of stations to enable a thorough evaluation of the model simulation, especially for the frequency of long dry spells, and this increases the systematic uncertainty of the model predictions. All three drought statistics show marked increases owing to the sensitivity of extreme statistics to changes in their distributions. However, the greater likelihood of long dry spells is caused by a tendency in the character of daily rainfall toward fewer events, rather than by the reduction in mean precipitation. The results should not be taken as firm predictions because extreme statistics for small regions cannot be calculated reliably from the output of the current generation of GCMs, but they point to the possibility of large increases in the severity of drought conditions as a consequence of climate change caused by increased CO2.

Dynamical self-stabilization of the Mott insulator: Time evolution of the density and entanglement entropy of out-of-equilibrium cold fermion gases

The time evolution of the out-of-equilibrium Mott insulator is investigated numerically through calculations of space-time-resolved density and entropy profiles resulting from the release of a gas of ultracold fermionic atoms from an optical trap. For adiabatic, moderate and sudden switching-off of the trapping potential, the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of the Mott insulator is found to differ profoundly from that of the band insulator and the metallic phase, displaying a self-induced stability that is robust within a wide range of densities, system sizes and interaction strengths. The connection between the entanglement entropy and changes of phase, known for equilibrium situations, is found to extend to the out-of-equilibrium regime. Finally, the relation between the system`s long time behavior and the thermalization limit is analyzed. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2011

Aplicação da teoria de dano na análise do comportamento viscoelástico de estruturas de concreto

A presente dissertação de mestrado tem por assunto a representação do comportamento mecânico do concreto sob cargas de curta e longa duração, incluindo efeitos não-lineares. Para tal fim trabalha-se com equações baseadas na teoria do dano contínuo. São propostas equações para o caso triaxial e, baseado nelas, é implementado um programa computacional. Com diversos exemplos verifica-se que: a) A solução numérica aproxima bem os resultados teóricos. b) O comportamento do modelo representa bem as características qualitativas do concreto. c) O modelo permite aproximar bem alguns resultados experimentais, mas ainda deve ser aperfeiçoado, particularmente no que refere-se à identificação de parâmetros.