Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Proposta de metodologia para diagnóstico técnico da iluminação pública.

A Iluminação Pública (IP) está num momento de profundas mudanças, principalmente com a popularização da tecnologia LED e dos sistemas de controle a distância. O gestor de serviços públicos precisa conhecer a complexidade do uso final da IP para que possa gerir esse ativo direcionado às necessidades dos usuários, tendo em vista o dinamismo de evolução diária dos centros urbanos. Este estudo tem por objetivo desenvolver uma metodologia que permite levantar, cadastrar, diagnosticar e avaliar, o parque de IP existente em ambientes urbanos. Tem como questão de pesquisa: Como prover os gestores de serviços públicos de conhecimento da situação dos ativos de IP? Trata-se de uma pesquisa observacional e descritiva, desenvolvida em uma região que compreende uma área de 26,5 km², com uma população de 344.632 habitantes, localizada em uma região metropolitana brasileira. A metodologia aplicada divide-se em dois momentos: pesquisa documental e de campo. Inicia-se com um levantamento de documentações a respeito da vida pregressa do acervo, disponíveis nos escritórios da Concessionária de Energia local e da Prefeitura Municipal. Posteriormente procede-se uma identificação do perfil da cidade, onde o sistema de iluminação está inserido, buscando compreender como o sistema de IP instalado está integrado às necessidades da população. Essas primeiras ações visam recolher subsídios para a etapa seguinte, de levantamento técnico em campo, que buscou identificar não só os atributos de IP existentes para atualização cadastral, como também identificou anomalias que estavam atrapalhando o desempenho do sistema e a influência provocada pelo meio onde está inserido. A metodologia pode ser uma ferramenta que contribui para a gestão do serviço de IP inserida dentro dos centros urbanos, possibilitando a adoção de medidas de ajustes que visem dotar o acervo de IP de uma estrutura de manutenção direcionada para cada região da cidade, considerando sua especificidade e perfil dos usuários. Antes de qualquer adoção de novas tecnologias, como por exemplo lâmpadas LED, telecomando, etc., é imprescindível que se tenha um diagnóstico do acervo existente e a identificação do uso final da IP no meio em que se encontra.

Análise da qualidade de energia de um parque eólico com ligação à rede eléctrica

Tese de mestrado integrado em Engenharia da Energia e do Ambiente, apresentada à Universidade de Lisboa, através da Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

Kyiv's gas strategy: closer cooperation with Gazprom or a genuine diversification. OSW Commentary No. 110, 2013-07-16

In recent months Kyiv has been intensifying its efforts to diversify Ukraine’s gas supply routes with a view to reducing the country’s dependence on imports from Russia. One of the steps which Kyiv has taken has been to make the unprecedented decision to start importing gas from its Western neighbours. In November 2012, Ukraine’s state-owned Naftogaz began importing gas through Poland under a two-month contract with RWE (the imports continued into 2013 under a separate deal), while in the spring of 2013 Ukraine started importing gas from Hungary. Kyiv is also currently looking into the possibility of purchasing gas from Slovakia. Furthermore, since 2010 the Ukrainian government has been working on the construction of an LNG terminal near Odesa. The authorities have declared that this will allow Ukraine to import up to 5 billion m3 of LNG a year by 2015. The government has also taken measures to increase domestic production, including from non-traditional sources, and it plans to replace gas-based with coal-based technologies in local power stations. Finally, in January 2013, the government signed a 50-year production sharing agreement with Shell. This paves the way for the development of Ukraine’s shale gas deposits.

Social Impact of Coca Crops in Colombia. : From socio-territorial processes to new social configurations: the role of land tenure, armed conflict, environment and coca crops.

This paper explores alterations in social dynamics caused by coca crops in Curvaradó and Jiguamiandó, at Choco department in the Colombian Pacific region. The research analyzes the role of armed actors such as paramilitaries and guerrillas in the conformation of new social spaces where local people find resistance as the main tool to survive in chaotic environments. Local power as a politics of resistance is also analyzed. Non-governmental organizations are a key tool to comprehend new social configurations. By doing the analysis and comparison using political ecology as the theoretical background along with concepts of moral economy and everyday resistance, with qualitative research methods. The paper aims to interpret and provide a better understanding of those changes considering social-environmental relations. Findings suggest that those changes in social structure are leading to an understanding, not just of the organization of the area, but also that social dynamics and coca crops cannot be generalized in the country. 

The extreme right in France:from Pétain to Le Pen

The Front National has for some years been France's third political party and the most notable far-right force in Europe; its leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen, contested the 2002 presidential election run-off with 5.5 million votes. What do Le Pen and the FN represent? What are their historical roots, their values and their policies? Who votes for them and why? And what has been their impact on the political agenda in France? Adopting an essentially chronological approach, the book traces the political lineage of Le Pen and the FN through key figures, movements and events on the French extreme right from the Vichy regime to the present, providing a detailed historical perspective for understanding the FN today. Part I provides a historical study of the extreme right in France since 1940, examining • the Vichy regime, collaboration and ‘collaborationism’, • the aftermath of Liberation and the post-war extreme right, • the Poujadist movement and the politics of populism, • the Algerian War as a catalyst for change, • the ‘Nouvelle Droite’ and the search for doctrinal renewal, • old and new forms of extreme-right ideology and activism. Part II undertakes a comprehensive study of the FN, analysing • the party’s early development and electoral rise, • its evolving programme and strategy, • the factors underlying its popular appeal, • the geography and composition of its electorate, • its exercise of local power and regional influence, • and its defining impact on the national political agenda. The FN, it is argued, represents both the latest manifestation of a long tradition of authoritarian nationalism and a complex new phenomenon within the changing social and political dynamics of contemporary France.

Optical rogue waves in telecommunication data streams

Large broadening of short optical pulses due to fiber dispersion leads to a strong overlap in information data streams resulting in statistical deviations of the local power from its average. We present a theoretical analysis of rare events of high-intensity fluctuations-optical freak waves-that occur in fiber communication links using bit-overlapping transmission. Although the nature of the large fluctuations examined here is completely linear, as compared to commonly studied freak waves generated by nonlinear effects, the considered deviations inherit from rogue waves the key features of practical interest-random appearance of localized high-intensity pulses. We use the term "rogue wave" in an unusual context mostly to attract attention to both the possibility of purely linear statistical generation of huge amplitude waves and to the fact that in optics the occurrence of such pulses might be observable even with the standard Gaussian or even rarer-than-Gaussian statistics, without imposing the condition of an increased probability of extreme value events. © 2011 American Physical Society.

Structural adjustment and labor in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic

Statement of the problem. It seeks to examine whether structural adjustment in Jamaica produced the desired developmental effects for labor--both organized and non-unionized--and if there is any significant difference in the Dominican Republic, which did not undergo that economic transformation. The research hypothesis is; "Structural Adjustment leads to Marginalization of labor."^ Methodology used. The methodology is mostly a straight cross-sectional analysis using data sets and publications from the UN, ILO, World Bank and IDB, as well as local statistical sources. The dissertation is primarily an historical to contemporary analysis of the Jamaican experience under structural adjustment, as it related to labor. To a greater extent it involves a straight cross-national comparison on the historical experiences of each country and a discussion of the relative similarities and differences between them, and the impact these features had on labor.^ Summary of findings. In the end, the question is asked as to whether internal factors are important in the relative success or failure of development strategies. From the data there is some indication that under structural adjustment there has been limited economic benefits for labor in Jamaica while labor standards have not improved. In the Dominican Republic the economic performance has been similar but the labor standards have improved significantly. This thus leads to the conclusion that structural adjustment may have been a factor in the resistance to labor's empowerment.^ Nevertheless, the study also shows that there may have been a causal role which local power relations had. The suggestion from the study is that in analyzing the phenomenon, attention must be paid to internal as well as external dynamics and variables. ^

Radiotherapy Treatment Assessment using DCE-MRI

Abstract

The goal of modern radiotherapy is to precisely deliver a prescribed radiation dose to delineated target volumes that contain a significant amount of tumor cells while sparing the surrounding healthy tissues/organs. Precise delineation of treatment and avoidance volumes is the key for the precision radiation therapy. In recent years, considerable clinical and research efforts have been devoted to integrate MRI into radiotherapy workflow motivated by the superior soft tissue contrast and functional imaging possibility. Dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) is a noninvasive technique that measures properties of tissue microvasculature. Its sensitivity to radiation-induced vascular pharmacokinetic (PK) changes has been preliminary demonstrated. In spite of its great potential, two major challenges have limited DCE-MRI’s clinical application in radiotherapy assessment: the technical limitations of accurate DCE-MRI imaging implementation and the need of novel DCE-MRI data analysis methods for richer functional heterogeneity information.

This study aims at improving current DCE-MRI techniques and developing new DCE-MRI analysis methods for particular radiotherapy assessment. Thus, the study is naturally divided into two parts. The first part focuses on DCE-MRI temporal resolution as one of the key DCE-MRI technical factors, and some improvements regarding DCE-MRI temporal resolution are proposed; the second part explores the potential value of image heterogeneity analysis and multiple PK model combination for therapeutic response assessment, and several novel DCE-MRI data analysis methods are developed.

I. Improvement of DCE-MRI temporal resolution. First, the feasibility of improving DCE-MRI temporal resolution via image undersampling was studied. Specifically, a novel MR image iterative reconstruction algorithm was studied for DCE-MRI reconstruction. This algorithm was built on the recently developed compress sensing (CS) theory. By utilizing a limited k-space acquisition with shorter imaging time, images can be reconstructed in an iterative fashion under the regularization of a newly proposed total generalized variation (TGV) penalty term. In the retrospective study of brain radiosurgery patient DCE-MRI scans under IRB-approval, the clinically obtained image data was selected as reference data, and the simulated accelerated k-space acquisition was generated via undersampling the reference image full k-space with designed sampling grids. Two undersampling strategies were proposed: 1) a radial multi-ray grid with a special angular distribution was adopted to sample each slice of the full k-space; 2) a Cartesian random sampling grid series with spatiotemporal constraints from adjacent frames was adopted to sample the dynamic k-space series at a slice location. Two sets of PK parameters’ maps were generated from the undersampled data and from the fully-sampled data, respectively. Multiple quantitative measurements and statistical studies were performed to evaluate the accuracy of PK maps generated from the undersampled data in reference to the PK maps generated from the fully-sampled data. Results showed that at a simulated acceleration factor of four, PK maps could be faithfully calculated from the DCE images that were reconstructed using undersampled data, and no statistically significant differences were found between the regional PK mean values from undersampled and fully-sampled data sets. DCE-MRI acceleration using the investigated image reconstruction method has been suggested as feasible and promising.

Second, for high temporal resolution DCE-MRI, a new PK model fitting method was developed to solve PK parameters for better calculation accuracy and efficiency. This method is based on a derivative-based deformation of the commonly used Tofts PK model, which is presented as an integrative expression. This method also includes an advanced Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter to remove the potential noise effect in data and solve the PK parameter as a linear problem in matrix format. In the computer simulation study, PK parameters representing typical intracranial values were selected as references to simulated DCE-MRI data for different temporal resolution and different data noise level. Results showed that at both high temporal resolutions (<1s) and clinically feasible temporal resolution (~5s), this new method was able to calculate PK parameters more accurate than the current calculation methods at clinically relevant noise levels; at high temporal resolutions, the calculation efficiency of this new method was superior to current methods in an order of 102. In a retrospective of clinical brain DCE-MRI scans, the PK maps derived from the proposed method were comparable with the results from current methods. Based on these results, it can be concluded that this new method can be used for accurate and efficient PK model fitting for high temporal resolution DCE-MRI.

II. Development of DCE-MRI analysis methods for therapeutic response assessment. This part aims at methodology developments in two approaches. The first one is to develop model-free analysis method for DCE-MRI functional heterogeneity evaluation. This approach is inspired by the rationale that radiotherapy-induced functional change could be heterogeneous across the treatment area. The first effort was spent on a translational investigation of classic fractal dimension theory for DCE-MRI therapeutic response assessment. In a small-animal anti-angiogenesis drug therapy experiment, the randomly assigned treatment/control groups received multiple fraction treatments with one pre-treatment and multiple post-treatment high spatiotemporal DCE-MRI scans. In the post-treatment scan two weeks after the start, the investigated Rényi dimensions of the classic PK rate constant map demonstrated significant differences between the treatment and the control groups; when Rényi dimensions were adopted for treatment/control group classification, the achieved accuracy was higher than the accuracy from using conventional PK parameter statistics. Following this pilot work, two novel texture analysis methods were proposed. First, a new technique called Gray Level Local Power Matrix (GLLPM) was developed. It intends to solve the lack of temporal information and poor calculation efficiency of the commonly used Gray Level Co-Occurrence Matrix (GLCOM) techniques. In the same small animal experiment, the dynamic curves of Haralick texture features derived from the GLLPM had an overall better performance than the corresponding curves derived from current GLCOM techniques in treatment/control separation and classification. The second developed method is dynamic Fractal Signature Dissimilarity (FSD) analysis. Inspired by the classic fractal dimension theory, this method measures the dynamics of tumor heterogeneity during the contrast agent uptake in a quantitative fashion on DCE images. In the small animal experiment mentioned before, the selected parameters from dynamic FSD analysis showed significant differences between treatment/control groups as early as after 1 treatment fraction; in contrast, metrics from conventional PK analysis showed significant differences only after 3 treatment fractions. When using dynamic FSD parameters, the treatment/control group classification after 1st treatment fraction was improved than using conventional PK statistics. These results suggest the promising application of this novel method for capturing early therapeutic response.

The second approach of developing novel DCE-MRI methods is to combine PK information from multiple PK models. Currently, the classic Tofts model or its alternative version has been widely adopted for DCE-MRI analysis as a gold-standard approach for therapeutic response assessment. Previously, a shutter-speed (SS) model was proposed to incorporate transcytolemmal water exchange effect into contrast agent concentration quantification. In spite of richer biological assumption, its application in therapeutic response assessment is limited. It might be intriguing to combine the information from the SS model and from the classic Tofts model to explore potential new biological information for treatment assessment. The feasibility of this idea was investigated in the same small animal experiment. The SS model was compared against the Tofts model for therapeutic response assessment using PK parameter regional mean value comparison. Based on the modeled transcytolemmal water exchange rate, a biological subvolume was proposed and was automatically identified using histogram analysis. Within the biological subvolume, the PK rate constant derived from the SS model were proved to be superior to the one from Tofts model in treatment/control separation and classification. Furthermore, novel biomarkers were designed to integrate PK rate constants from these two models. When being evaluated in the biological subvolume, this biomarker was able to reflect significant treatment/control difference in both post-treatment evaluation. These results confirm the potential value of SS model as well as its combination with Tofts model for therapeutic response assessment.

In summary, this study addressed two problems of DCE-MRI application in radiotherapy assessment. In the first part, a method of accelerating DCE-MRI acquisition for better temporal resolution was investigated, and a novel PK model fitting algorithm was proposed for high temporal resolution DCE-MRI. In the second part, two model-free texture analysis methods and a multiple-model analysis method were developed for DCE-MRI therapeutic response assessment. The presented works could benefit the future DCE-MRI routine clinical application in radiotherapy assessment.

Identity Text: an educational intervention to foster cultural interaction

Background: Sociocultural theories state that learning results from people participating in contexts where social interaction is facilitated. There is a need to create such facilitated pedagogical spaces where participants share their ways of knowing and doing. The aim of this exploratory study was to introduce pedagogical space for sociocultural interaction using ‘Identity Text’.
Methods: Identity texts are sociocultural artifacts produced by participants, which can be written, spoken, visual, musical, or multimodal. In 2013, participants of an international medical education fellowship program were asked to create their own Identity Texts to promote discussion about participants’ cultural backgrounds. Thematic analysis was used to make the analysis relevant to studying the pedagogical utility of the intervention.
Result: The Identity Text intervention created two spaces: a ‘reflective space’ helped
participants reflect on sensitive topics like institutional environments, roles in
interdisciplinary teams, and gender discrimination. A ‘narrative space’ allowed
participants to tell powerful stories that provided cultural insights and challenged cultural hegemony; they described the conscious and subconscious transformation in identity that evolved secondary to struggles with local power dynamics and social demands involving the impact of family, peers and country of origin.
Conclusion: Whilst the impact of providing pedagogical space using Identity Text on
cognitive engagement and enhanced learning requires further research, the findings of
this study suggest that it is a useful pedagogical strategy to support cross-cultural
education.

Les conséquences géopolitiques du traité d’Apamée en Asie Mineure

Cette thèse considère les suites de la paix d’Apamée sur le plan des relations politiques entre les États d’Anatolie et sur l’évolution de la place tenue par cette péninsule dans l’ordre géopolitique méditerranéen. Le traité d’Apamée, conclu en 188 avant notre ère entre la puissance romaine et le royaume séleucide, fut un acte diplomatique majeur pour l’Asie Mineure et l’ensemble de la région anatolienne, libérés de la domination des Séleucides. Jusqu’ici, l’historiographie traditionnelle a abordé ce sujet selon deux perspectives, à savoir l’apparition de l’impérialisme romain en Orient et la vie politique et administrative des cités égéennes. À l’inverse, cette étude se concentre sur les principales puissances politiques de la région anatolienne : les royaumes. Dans le cadre de cet espace fragmenté et diversifié, des modifications de l’équilibre géopolitique régional peuvent être mises en relation avec le bouleversement de l’ordre méditerranéen, par le croisement de sources grecques, latines et orientales, ainsi qu’en faisant usage de procédés développés par le courant de la World History. L’évolution ultérieure de la situation mise en place à Apamée est étudiée jusqu’au point de disparition d’une Anatolie dirigée par des souverains non incorporés dans l’horizon impérial des grandes puissances étrangères, situation à laquelle les ultimes défaites de Mithridate VI du Pont et de Tigrane d’Arménie face à Rome mirent un terme définitif.

El veneno en la política. La muerte de Bernat Saportella, procurador de Orihuela, a manos de los patricios

El presente trabajo analiza el tema del crimen político referido, en este caso, a la muerte violenta de Bernat Saportella, procurador del territorio de Orihuela, suceso ocurrido en 1324. El autor describe los pormenores del suceso transmitidos por la información que sobre el particular mandó realizar el rey de Aragón. Como en otros muchos casos, la muerte violenta del procurador real en Orihuela es un ejemplo más de las consecuencias trágicas que podían traer consigo las luchas políticas cuando los intereses del ppder local entraban en colisión con las necesidades del poder central defendidas por los representantes de la autoridad del rey.

Si hay moreras hay cristianos nuevos: Los Duques de Pastrana y la industria de la seda en la formación de un espacio de conflicto (Pastrana, c. 1569- c. 1609)

Durante las últimas décadas del siglo XVI los moriscos, amparados por el poder ducal, acapararon la producción y comercio de la seda de la villa de Pastrana, así como adquirieron cada vez mayores cotas de poder municipal. En este artículo se analiza la constitución en la villa ducal de Pastrana de un espacio de odio a causa de la competencia social entre cristianos viejos y moriscos. Este odio se tradujo en una caracterización de los moriscos, sobre todo a partir de 1572, como cristianos nuevos sospechosos. Esta experiencia estigmatizadora sería un precedente de lo que ocurriría en las primeras decadas del siglo XVII con los mercaderes portugueses que sustituyeron en el negocio de la seda a los moriscos tras su expulsión. Entonces se contruiría la imagen del portugués critptojudío.

State-narco networks and the ‘War on Drugs’ in post-transition Bolivia, with special reference to 1989-1993

This thesis examines the development of state-narco networks in post-transition Bolivia. Mainstream discourses of drugs tend to undertheorise such relationships, holding illicit economies, weak states and violence as synergistic phenomena. Such assumptions fail to capture the nuanced relations that emerge between the state and the drug trade in different contexts, their underlying logics and diverse effects. As an understudied case, Bolivia offers novel insights into these dynamics. Bolivian military authoritarian governments (1964-1982), for example, integrated drug rents into clientelistic systems of governance, helping to establish factional coalitions and reinforce regime authority. Following democratic transition in 1982 and the escalation of US counterdrug efforts, these stable modes of exchange between the state and the coca-cocaine economy fragmented. Bolivia, though, continued to experience lower levels of drug-related violence than its Andean neighbours, and sustained democratisation despite being a major drug producer. Focusing on the introduction of the Andean Initiative (1989-1993), I explore state-narco interactions during this period of flux: from authoritarianism to (formal) democracy, and from Cold War to Drug War. As such, the thesis transcends the conventional analyses of the drugs literature and orthodox readings of Latin American narco-violence, providing insights into the relationship between illicit economies and democratic transition, the regional role of the US, and the (unintended) consequences of drug policy interventions. I utilise a mixed methods approach to offer discrete perspectives on the object of study. Drawing on documentary and secondary sources, I argue that state-narco networks were interwoven with Bolivia’s post-transition political settlement. Uneven democratisation ensured pockets of informalism, as clientelistic and authoritarian practices continued. This included police and military autonomy, and tolerance of drug corruption within both institutions. Non-enforcement of democratic norms of accountability and transparency was linked to the maintenance of fragile political equilibrium. Interviews with key US and Bolivian elite actors also revealed differing interpretations of state-narco interactions. These exposed competing agendas, and were folded into alternative paradigms and narratives of the ‘war on drugs’. The extension of US Drug War goals and the targeting of ‘corrupt’ local power structures, clashed with local ambivalence towards the drug trade, opposition to destabilising, ‘Colombianised’ policies and the claimed ‘democratising mission’ of the Bolivian government. In contrasting these US and Bolivian accounts, the thesis shows how real and perceived state-narco webs were understood and navigated by different actors in distinct ways. ‘Drug corruption’ held significance beyond simple economic transaction or institutional failure. Contestation around state-narco interactions was enmeshed in US-Bolivian relations of power and control.

LOCAL LOW POWER LASER IRRADIATION ACCELERATES THE REGENERATION OF THE FIBULAR NERVE IN RATS

Objective: To study the influence of low power GaAsAl laser irradiation on the regeneration of a peripheral nerve, following a controlled crush injury. Material and methods: The right common fibular nerve of 30 Wistar rats was submitted to a crush injury with an adjustable load forceps (5 000 g, 10 minutes of application). The animals were divided into three groups (n=10), according to the postoperative procedure (no irradiation; sham irradiation; effective irradiation). Laser irradiation (830 nm wave-length; 100 mW emission power; continuous mode; 140 J/cm(2)) was started on the first postoperative day and continued over 21 consecutive days. Body mass, time spent on the walking track and functional peroneal index (PFI) were analyzed based on the hind footprints, both preoperatively and on the 21st postoperative day. Results: Walking time and PFI significantly improved in the group that received effective laser irradiation, despite the significant gain in body mass between the pre- and post-operative periods. Conclusion: Low Power GaAsAl laser irradiation, with the parameters used in our study, accelerated and improved fibular nerve regeneration in rats.