International palliative care experts' view on phenomena indicating the last hours and days of life

BACKGROUND Providing the highest quality care for dying patients should be a core clinical proficiency and an integral part of comprehensive management, as fundamental as diagnosis and treatment. The aim of this study was to provide expert consensus on phenomena for identification and prediction of the last hours or days of a patient's life. This study is part of the OPCARE9 project, funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme. METHOD The phenomena associated with approaching death were generated using Delphi technique. The Delphi process was set up in three cycles to collate a set of useful and relevant phenomena that identify and predict the last hours and days of life. Each cycle included: (1) development of the questionnaire, (2) distribution of the Delphi questionnaire and (3) review and synthesis of findings. RESULTS The first Delphi cycle of 252 participants (health care professionals, volunteers, public) generated 194 different phenomena, perceptions and observations. In the second cycle, these phenomena were checked for their specific ability to diagnose the last hours/days of life. Fifty-eight phenomena achieved more than 80% expert consensus and were grouped into nine categories. In the third cycle, these 58 phenomena were ranked by a group of palliative care experts (78 professionals, including physicians, nurses, psycho-social-spiritual support; response rate 72%, see Table 1) in terms of clinical relevance to the prediction that a person will die within the next few hours/days. Twenty-one phenomena were determined to have "high relevance" by more than 50% of the experts. Based on these findings, the changes in the following categories (each consisting of up to three phenomena) were considered highly relevant to clinicians in identifying and predicting a patient's last hours/days of life: "breathing", "general deterioration", "consciousness/cognition", "skin", "intake of fluid, food, others", "emotional state" and "non-observations/expressed opinions/other". CONCLUSION Experts from different professional backgrounds identified a set of categories describing a structure within which clinical phenomena can be clinically assessed, in order to more accurately predict whether someone will die within the next days or hours. However, these phenomena need further specification for clinical use.

Finite element analysis for prediction of bone strength

Article preview View full access options BoneKEy Reports | Review Print Email Share/bookmark Finite element analysis for prediction of bone strength Philippe K Zysset, Enrico Dall'Ara, Peter Varga & Dieter H Pahr Affiliations Corresponding author BoneKEy Reports (2013) 2, Article number: 386 (2013) doi:10.1038/bonekey.2013.120 Received 03 January 2013 Accepted 25 June 2013 Published online 07 August 2013 Article tools Citation Reprints Rights & permissions Abstract Abstract• References• Author information Finite element (FE) analysis has been applied for the past 40 years to simulate the mechanical behavior of bone. Although several validation studies have been performed on specific anatomical sites and load cases, this study aims to review the predictability of human bone strength at the three major osteoporotic fracture sites quantified in recently completed in vitro studies at our former institute. Specifically, the performance of FE analysis based on clinical computer tomography (QCT) is compared with the ones of the current densitometric standards, bone mineral content, bone mineral density (BMD) and areal BMD (aBMD). Clinical fractures were produced in monotonic axial compression of the distal radii, vertebral sections and in side loading of the proximal femora. QCT-based FE models of the three bones were developed to simulate as closely as possible the boundary conditions of each experiment. For all sites, the FE methodology exhibited the lowest errors and the highest correlations in predicting the experimental bone strength. Likely due to the improved CT image resolution, the quality of the FE prediction in the peripheral skeleton using high-resolution peripheral CT was superior to that in the axial skeleton with whole-body QCT. Because of its projective and scalar nature, the performance of aBMD in predicting bone strength depended on loading mode and was significantly inferior to FE in axial compression of radial or vertebral sections but not significantly inferior to FE in side loading of the femur. Considering the cumulated evidence from the published validation studies, it is concluded that FE models provide the most reliable surrogates of bone strength at any of the three fracture sites.

Learning by the Dendritic Prediction of Somatic Spiking

Recent modeling of spike-timing-dependent plasticity indicates that plasticity involves as a third factor a local dendritic potential, besides pre- and postsynaptic firing times. We present a simple compartmental neuron model together with a non-Hebbian, biologically plausible learning rule for dendritic synapses where plasticity is modulated by these three factors. In functional terms, the rule seeks to minimize discrepancies between somatic firings and a local dendritic potential. Such prediction errors can arise in our model from stochastic fluctuations as well as from synaptic input, which directly targets the soma. Depending on the nature of this direct input, our plasticity rule subserves supervised or unsupervised learning. When a reward signal modulates the learning rate, reinforcement learning results. Hence a single plasticity rule supports diverse learning paradigms.

A multifactorial histopathologic score for the prediction of prognosis of resected esophageal adenocarcinomas after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

BACKGROUND For esophageal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, postoperative staging classifications initially developed for non-pretreated tumors may not accurately predict prognosis. We tested whether a multifactorial TNM-based histopathologic prognostic score (PRSC), which additionally applies to tumor regression, may improve estimation of prognosis compared with the current Union for International Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer (UICC) staging system. PATIENTS AND METHODS We evaluated esophageal adenocarcinoma specimens following cis/oxaliplatin-based therapy from two separate centers (center 1: n = 280; and center 2: n = 80). For the PRSC, each factor was assigned a value from 1 to 2 (ypT0-2 = 1 point; ypT3-4 = 2 points; ypN0 = 1 point; ypN1-3 = 2 points; ≤50 % residual tumor/tumor bed = 1 point; >50 % residual tumor/tumor bed = 2 points). The three-tiered PRSC was based on the sum value of these factors (group A: 3; group B: 4-5; group C: 6) and was correlated with patients' overall survival (OS). RESULTS The PRSC groups showed significant differences with respect to OS (p < 0.0001; hazard ratio [HR] 2.2 [95 % CI 1.7-2.8]), which could also be demonstrated in both cohorts separately (center 1 p < 0.0001; HR 2.48 [95 % CI 1.8-3.3] and center 2 p = 0.015; HR 1.7 [95 % CI 1.1-2.6]). Moreover, the PRSC showed a more accurate prognostic discrimination than the current UICC staging system (p < 0.0001; HR 1.15 [95 % CI 1.1-1.2]), and assessment of two goodness-of-fit criteria (Akaike Information Criterion and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion) clearly supported the superiority of PRSC over the UICC staging. CONCLUSION The proposed PRSC clearly identifies three subgroups with different outcomes and may be more helpful for guiding further therapeutic decisions than the UICC staging system.

Novel biomarkers for the prediction of metastasis in colorectal cancer

INTRODUCTION In patients with metastatic colorectal cancers, multimodal management and the use of biological agents such as monoclonal antibodies have had major positive effects on survival. The ability to predict which patients may be at 'high risk' of distant metastasis could have major implications on patient management. Histomorphological, immunohistochemical or molecular biomarkers are currently being investigated in order to test their potential value as predictors of metastasis. AREAS COVERED Here, the author reviews the clinical and functional data supporting the investigation of three novel promising biomarkers for the prediction of metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer: tumor budding, Raf1 kinase inhibitor protein (RKIP) and metastasis-associated in colon cancer-1 (MACC1). EXPERT OPINION The lifespan of most potential biomarkers is short as evidenced by the rare cases that have successfully made their way into daily practice such as KRAS or microsatellite instability (MSI) status. Although the three biomarkers reviewed herein have the potential to become important predictive biomarkers of metastasis, they have similar hurdles to overcome before they can be implemented into clinical management: standardization and validation in prospective patient cohorts.

Prediction of outcome in patients with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions by fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis of human papillomavirus, TERC, and MYC

BACKGROUND Cytology is an excellent method with which to diagnose preinvasive lesions of the uterine cervix, but it suffers from limited specificity for clinically significant lesions. Supplementary methods might predict the natural course of the detected lesions. The objective of the current study was to test whether a multicolor fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) assay might help to stratify abnormal results of Papanicolaou tests. METHODS A total of 219 liquid-based cytology specimens of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), 49 atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) specimens, 52 high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) specimens, and 50 normal samples were assessed by FISH with probes for the human papillomavirus (HPV), MYC, and telomerase RNA component (TERC). Subtyping of HPV by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was performed in a subset of cases (n=206). RESULTS There was a significant correlation found between HPV detection by FISH and PCR (P<.0001). In patients with LSILs, the presence of HPV detected by FISH was significantly associated with disease progression (P<.0001). An increased MYC and/or TERC gene copy number (>2 signals in>10% of cells) prevailed in 43% of ASCUS specimens and was more frequent in HSIL (85%) than in LSIL (33%) (HSIL vs LSIL: P<.0001). Increased TERC gene copy number was significantly correlated with progression of LSIL (P<.01; odds ratio, 7.44; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.73; positive predictive value, 0.30; negative predictive value, 0.94) CONCLUSIONS: The detection of HPV by FISH analysis is feasible in liquid-based cytology and is significantly correlated with HPV analysis by PCR. The analysis of TERC gene copy number may be useful for risk stratification in patients with LSIL.

Prediction of the thermal release of transactinide elements (112 ≤ Z ≤ 116) from metals

Metallic catcher foils have been investigated on their thermal release capabilities for future superheavy element studies. These catcher materials shall serve as connection between production and chemical investigation of superheavy elements (SHE) at vacuum conditions. The diffusion constants and activation energies of diffusion have been extrapolated for various catcher materials using an atomic volume based model. Release rates can now be estimated for predefined experimental conditions using the determined diffusion values. The potential release behavior of the volatile SHE Cn (E112), E113, Fl (E114), E115, and Lv (E116) from polycrystalline, metallic foils of Ni, Y, Zr, Nb, Mo, Hf, Ta, and W is predicted. Example calculations showed that Zr is the best suited material in terms of on-line release efficiency and long-term operation stability. If higher temperatures up to 2773 K are applicable, tungsten is suggested to be the material of choice for such experiments.

Prediction of Cranio-Maxilofacial Surgical Planning using an Inverse Soft Tissue Modelling Approach

In cranio-maxillofacial surgery, the determination of a proper surgical plan is an important step to attain a desired aesthetic facial profile and a complete denture closure. In the present paper, we propose an efficient modeling approach to predict the surgical planning on the basis of the desired facial appearance and optimal occlusion. To evaluate the proposed planning approach, the predicted osteotomy plan of six clinical cases that underwent CMF surgery were compared to the real clinical plan. Thereafter, simulated soft-tissue outcomes were compared using the predicted and real clinical plan. This preliminary retrospective comparison of both osteotomy planning and facial outlook shows a good agreement and thereby demonstrates the potential application of the proposed approach in cranio-maxillofacial surgical planning prediction.

Comparison of partial least squares regression and principal component regression for pelvic shape prediction.

This paper studied two different regression techniques for pelvic shape prediction, i.e., the partial least square regression (PLSR) and the principal component regression (PCR). Three different predictors such as surface landmarks, morphological parameters, or surface models of neighboring structures were used in a cross-validation study to predict the pelvic shape. Results obtained from applying these two different regression techniques were compared to the population mean model. In almost all the prediction experiments, both regression techniques unanimously generated better results than the population mean model, while the difference on prediction accuracy between these two regression methods is not statistically significant (α=0.01).

Can infant lung function predict respiratory morbidity during the first year of life in preterm infants?

Compared with term-born infants, preterm infants have increased respiratory morbidity in the first year of life. We investigated whether lung function tests performed near term predict subsequent respiratory morbidity during the first year of life and compared this to standard clinical parameters in preterms.The prospective birth cohort included randomly selected preterm infants with and without bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Lung function (tidal breathing and multiple-breath washout) was measured at 44 weeks post-menstrual age during natural sleep. We assessed respiratory morbidity (wheeze, hospitalisation, inhalation and home oxygen therapy) after 1 year using a standardised questionnaire. We first assessed the association between lung function and subsequent respiratory morbidity. Secondly, we compared the predictive power of standard clinical predictors with and without lung function data.In 166 preterm infants, tidal volume, time to peak tidal expiratory flow/expiratory time ratio and respiratory rate were significantly associated with subsequent wheeze. In comparison with standard clinical predictors, lung function did not improve the prediction of later respiratory morbidity in an individual child.Although associated with later wheeze, noninvasive infant lung function shows large physiological variability and does not add to clinically relevant risk prediction for subsequent respiratory morbidity in an individual preterm.

Health-related quality of life in European women following myocardial infarction: A cross-sectional study

Background:Coronary heart disease is a major contributor to women's health problems.Design:Self-perceived social support, well-being and health-related quality of life (HRQL) were documented in the cross-sectional HeartQoL survey of European women one and six months after a myocardial infarction.Methods:European women were recruited in 18 European countries and grouped into four geographical regions (Southern Europe, Northern Europe, Western Europe and Eastern Europe). Continuous socio-demographic variables and categorical variables were compared by age and region with ANOVA and χ(2), respectively; multiple regression models were used to identify predictors of social support, well-being and HRQL.Results:Women living in the Eastern European region rated social support, well-being and HRQL significantly lower than women in the other regions. Older women had lower physical HRQL scores than younger women. Eastern European women rated social support, well-being and HRQL significantly lower than women in the other regions. Prediction of the dependent variables (social support, well-being and HRQL) by socio-demographic factors varied by total group, in the older age group, and by region; body mass index and managerial responsibility were the most consistent significant predictors.

Usefulness of electrocardiographic parameters for risk prediction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia

The value of electrocardiographic findings predicting adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD) is not well known. We hypothesized that ventricular depolarization and repolarization abnormalities on the 12-lead surface electrocardiogram (ECG) predict adverse outcome in patients with ARVD. ECGs of 111 patients screened for the 2010 ARVD Task Force Criteria from 3 Swiss tertiary care centers were digitized and analyzed with a digital caliper by 2 independent observers blinded to the outcome. ECGs were compared in 2 patient groups: (1) patients with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: a composite of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or arrhythmic syncope) and (2) all remaining patients. A total of 51 patients (46%) experienced MACE during a follow-up period with median of 4.6 years (interquartile range 1.8 to 10.0). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed reduced times to MACE for patients with repolarization abnormalities according to Task Force Criteria (p = 0.009), a precordial QRS amplitude ratio (∑QRS mV V1 to V3/∑QRS mV V1 to V6) of ≤ 0.48 (p = 0.019), and QRS fragmentation (p = 0.045). In multivariable Cox regression, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39 to 6.15, p = 0.005), inferior leads T-wave inversions (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.15 to 5.18, p = 0.020), and QRS fragmentation (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.1 to 6.34, p = 0.029) remained as independent predictors of MACE. In conclusion, in this multicenter, observational, long-term study, electrocardiographic findings were useful for risk stratification in patients with ARVD, with repolarization criteria, inferior leads TWI, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48, and QRS fragmentation constituting valuable variables to predict adverse outcome.

Clinical importance of risk variants in the dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase gene for the prediction of early-onset fluoropyrimidine toxicity.

We investigated the clinical relevance of dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase gene (DPYD) variants to predict severe early-onset fluoropyrimidine (FP) toxicity, in particular of a recently discovered haplotype hapB3 and a linked deep intronic splice site mutation c.1129-5923C>G. Selected regions of DPYD were sequenced in prospectively collected germline DNA of 500 patients receiving FP-based chemotherapy. Associations of DPYD variants and haplotypes with hematologic, gastrointestinal, infectious, and dermatologic toxicity in therapy cycles 1-2 and resulting FP-dose interventions (dose reduction, therapy delay or cessation) were analyzed accounting for clinical and demographic covariates. Fifteen additional cases with toxicity-related therapy delay or cessation were retrospectively examined for risk variants. The association of c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3 (4.6% carrier frequency) with severe toxicity was replicated in an independent prospective cohort. Overall, c.1129-5923G/hapB3 carriers showed a relative risk of 3.74 (RR, 95% CI = 2.30-6.09, p = 2 × 10(-5)) for severe toxicity (grades 3-5). Of 31 risk variant carriers (c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3, c.1679T>G, c.1905+1G>A or c.2846A>T), 11 (all with c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3) experienced severe toxicity (15% of 72 cases, RR = 2.73, 95% CI = 1.61-4.63, p = 5 × 10(-6)), and 16 carriers (55%) required FP-dose interventions. Seven of the 15 (47%) retrospective cases carried a risk variant. The c.1129-5923C>G/hapB3 variant is a major contributor to severe early-onset FP toxicity in Caucasian patients. This variant may substantially improve the identification of patients at risk of FP toxicity compared to established DPYD risk variants (c.1905+1G>A, c.1679T>G and c.2846A>T). Pre-therapeutic DPYD testing may prevent 20-30% of life-threatening or lethal episodes of FP toxicity in Caucasian patients.

Level of incongruence during cardiac rehabilitation and prediction of future CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality

Independent of traditional risk factors, psychosocial risk factors increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Studies in the field of psychotherapy have shown that the construct of incongruence (meaning a discrepancy between desired and achieved goals) affects the outcome of therapy. We prospectively measured the impact of incongruence in patients after undergoing a cardiac rehabilitation program. We examined 198 CVD patients enrolled in a 8–12 week comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation program. Patients completed the German short version of the Incongruence Questionnaire and the SF-36 Health Questionnaire to measure quality of life (QoL) at discharge of rehabilitation. Endpoints at follow-up were CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality. During a mean follow-up period of 54.3 months, 29 patients experienced a CVD-related hospitalization and 3 patients died. Incongruence at discharge of rehabilitation was independent of traditional risk factors a significant predictor for CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.29–3.20, p = .002). We also found a significant interaction of incongruence with mental QoL (HR .96, 95% CI .92–.99, p = .027), i.e. incongruence predicted poor prognosis if QoL was low (p = .017), but not if QoL was high (p = .74). Incongruence at discharge predicted future CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality and mental QoL moderated this relationship. Therefore, incongruence should be considered for effective treatment planning and outcome measurement.

Temperature Prediction Model for Bone Drilling Based on Density Distribution and In Vivo Experiments for Minimally Invasive Robotic Cochlear Implantation

Surgical robots have been proposed ex vivo to drill precise holes in the temporal bone for minimally invasive cochlear implantation. The main risk of the procedure is damage of the facial nerve due to mechanical interaction or due to temperature elevation during the drilling process. To evaluate the thermal risk of the drilling process, a simplified model is proposed which aims to enable an assessment of risk posed to the facial nerve for a given set of constant process parameters for different mastoid bone densities. The model uses the bone density distribution along the drilling trajectory in the mastoid bone to calculate a time dependent heat production function at the tip of the drill bit. Using a time dependent moving point source Green's function, the heat equation can be solved at a certain point in space so that the resulting temperatures can be calculated over time. The model was calibrated and initially verified with in vivo temperature data. The data was collected in minimally invasive robotic drilling of 12 holes in four different sheep. The sheep were anesthetized and the temperature elevations were measured with a thermocouple which was inserted in a previously drilled hole next to the planned drilling trajectory. Bone density distributions were extracted from pre-operative CT data by averaging Hounsfield values over the drill bit diameter. Post-operative [Formula: see text]CT data was used to verify the drilling accuracy of the trajectories. The comparison of measured and calculated temperatures shows a very good match for both heating and cooling phases. The average prediction error of the maximum temperature was less than 0.7 °C and the average root mean square error was approximately 0.5 °C. To analyze potential thermal damage, the model was used to calculate temperature profiles and cumulative equivalent minutes at 43 °C at a minimal distance to the facial nerve. For the selected drilling parameters, temperature elevation profiles and cumulative equivalent minutes suggest that thermal elevation of this minimally invasive cochlear implantation surgery may pose a risk to the facial nerve, especially in sclerotic or high density mastoid bones. Optimized drilling parameters need to be evaluated and the model could be used for future risk evaluation.