The Good, the Bad and the Populist: A Model of Political Agency with Emotional Voters

This paper attempts to extend existing models of political agency to an environment in which voting may be divided between informed and instrumental, informed and ‘expressive’ (Brennan and Lomasky (1993)) and uninformed due to ‘rational irrationality’ (Caplan (2007)). It constructs a model where politicians may be good, bad or populist. Populists are more willing than good politicians to pander to voters who may choose inferior policies in a large-group electoral setting because their vote is insignificant compared with those that voters would choose were their vote decisive in determining the electoral outcome. Bad politicians would ideally like to extract tax revenue for their own ends. Initially we assume the existence of only good and populist politicians. The paper investigates the incentives for good politicians to pool with or separate from populists and focuses on three key issues – (1) how far the majority of voter’s preferences are from those held by the better informed incumbent politician (2) the extent to which the population exhibits rational irrationality and expressiveness (jointly labelled as emotional) and (3) the cost involved in persuading uninformed voters to change their views in terms of composing messages and spreading them. This paper goes on to consider how the inclusion of bad politicians may affect the behaviour of good politicians and suggests that a small amount of potential corruption may be socially useful. It is also argued that where bad politicians have an incentive to mimic the behaviour of good and populist politicians, the latter types of politician may have an incentive to separate from bad politicians by investing in costly public education signals. The paper also discusses the implications of the model for whether fiscal restraints should be soft or hard.

Negative investment in China: financing constraints and restructuring versus growth

This paper attempts to address a puzzle in China’s investment pattern: despite high aggregate investment and remarkable economic growth, negative net investment is commonly found at the microeconomic level. Using a large firm-level dataset, we test three hypotheses to explain the existence and extent of negative investment in each ownership group: what we term the efficiency (or restructuring) hypothesis, the (lack of) financing hypothesis, and the (slow) growth hypothesis. Our panel data probit estimations shows that negative investment by state-owned firms can be explained mainly by inefficiency: owing to over-investment or mis-investment in the past, these firms have had to restructure and to get rid of obsolete capital in the face of increasing competition and hardening budgets. The financing explanation holds for private firms, which have had to divest in order to raise capital. However, rapid economic growth weighs against both effects in all types of firms, with a larger impact for firms in the private and foreign sectors. A tobit model, estimated to examine the determinants of the amount of negative investment, yields similar conclusions.

Pecuniary Externality through Credit Constraints: Two Examples without Uncertainty

This paper is a contribution to the growing literature on constrained inefficiencies in economies with financial frictions. The purpose is to present two simple examples, inspired by the stochastic models in Gersbach-Rochet (2012) and Lorenzoni (2008), of deterministic environments in which such inefficiencies arise through credit constraints. Common to both examples is a pecuniary externality, which operates through an asset price. In the second example, a simple transfer between two groups of agents can bring about a Pareto improvement. In a first best economy, there are no pecuniary externalities because marginal productivities are equalised. But when agents face credit constraints, there is a wedge between their marginal productivities and those of the non-credit-constrained agents. The wedge is the source of the pecuniary externality: economies with these kinds of imperfections in credit markets are not second-best efficient. This is akin to the constrained inefficiency of an economy with incomplete markets, as in Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis (1986).

Comparative studies on the growth and reproductive performances of Rhodnius prolixus reared on different blood sources

Host blood source was found to affect both the development and the reproductive performance of Rhodnius prolixus. The insects were reared on citrated human, rabbit, chicken, sheep and horse blood sources, through a membrane feeder, during an entire life cycle, from eggs to adults. Development and reproduction in terms of the number of unfed insects, number of moulting, mortality intermoulting period, number of egg/female, conversion of blood into egg (mg meal/egg) and percentage of hatch as effective physiological parameters were investigated. Our results showed that human or rabbit blood meals were more nutritionally efficient than the other blood samples used because (i) the insects developed faster, presented low mortality and about 80% of them reached the adult stage; and (ii) females oviposited an average of at least 100% more eggs. The inefficiency of chicken and horse blood sources as diets for R. prolixus was manifested in (i) a decrease of the amount of ingested blood and (ii) only a reasonable nutritional quality. The inadequacy of sheep blood was observed by a mortality extremely high, poor moulting response and drastic reduction in egg production.

Assesing advertising efficiency: does the internet play a role?

This research focuses on a major concern for marketers addressing the claims of inefficiency of the spending on advertising. We examine whether the Internet can help increase overall advertising efficiency. Using a sample from the Spanish automobile industry, we combine a nonparametric method - Data Envelopment Analysis - with recent important insights from statistics and econometrics studies, and we find that online advertising improves the efficiency levels and this effect is more pronounced in the long-term temporal framework.

Crecimiento, instituciones e hidrocarburos : el proyecto petrolero mexicano en perspectiva histórica comparada (1938-2000)

En este trabajo se analiza la política petrolera mexicana durante el período 1938-2000 y su aportación al crecimiento económico mexicano. La orientación de la producción petrolera permite distinguir dos modelos de gestión de la industria petrolera. El primero de ellos; entre 1938-1976 tuvo por finalidad el aprovisionamiento energético del mercado interior a bajos precios. El segundo a partir de 1976 orientado hacia la exportación y la captura de la renta petrolera internacional. Esta ruptura en la política petrolera asociada constituye un caso interesante en sí mismo porque permite comparar los efectos de dos políticas totalmente opuestas sobre el crecimiento económico y sobre el desempeño de la propia industria petrolera en un país donde el Estado tiene derechos de propiedad exclusivos sobre el sector petrolero. Por ello, se aborda el tema como una problemática institucional que toma en cuenta tanto las características internas de México como la dinámica del mercado petrolero internacional. Se incide en el hecho de que el Estado mexicano ha utilizado a la industria petrolera y; concretamente los recursos que ésta genera no sólo como un instrumento para favorecer el crecimiento económico del país sino también para mantener el control del poder político frente a la élite económica. Así el inmovilismo institucional; la falta de ingresos e inversiones propias y el comportamiento rentista del Estado parecen haber condenado al sector petrolero mexicano al atraso y la ineficiencia. De este modo; se focaliza en las interrelaciones entre las instituciones económicas y políticas como elemento explicativo del por qué la industria petrolera no ha logrado convertirse en un elemento dinamizador del crecimiento económico mexicano en el largo plazo.

Médicaments et grossesse : modifications pharmacocinétiques et place du suivi thérapeutique pharmacologique [Pharmacokinetic Alterations in Pregnancy and Use of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring].

Following the thalidomide tragedy, pharmacological research in pregnant women focused primarily on drug safety for the unborn child and remains only limited regarding the efficacy and safety of treatment for the mother. Significant physiological changes during pregnancy may yet affect the pharmacokinetics of drugs and thus compromise its efficacy and/or safety. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) would maximize the potential effectiveness of treatments, while minimizing the potential risk of toxicity for the mother and the fetus. At present, because of the lack of concentration-response relationship studies in pregnant women, TDM can rely only on individual assessment (based on an effective concentration before pregnancy) and remains reserved only to unexpected situations such as signs of toxicity or unexplained inefficiency.

Origins and efficiency of the electric industry regulation in Spain, 1910-1936

The aim of this paper is to discover the origins of utility regulation in Spain, and to analyse, from a microeconomic perspective, its characteristics and the impact of regulation on consumers and utilities. Madrid and the Madrilenian utilities are taken as a case study. The electric industry in the period studied was a natural monopoly2. Each of the three phases of production, generation, transmission and distribution, had natural monopoly characteristics. Therefore, the most efficient form to generate, transmit and distribute electricity was the monopoly because one firm can produce a quantity at a lower cost than the sum of costs incurred by two or more firms. A problem arises because when a firm is the single provider it can charge prices above the marginal cost, at monopoly prices. When a monopolist reduces the quantity produced, price increases, causing the consumer to demand less than the economic efficiency level, incurring a loss of consumer surplus. The loss of the consumer surplus is not completely gained by the monopolist, causing a loss of social surplus, a deadweight loss. The main objective of regulation is going to be to reduce to a minimum the deadweight loss. Regulation is also needed because when the monopolist fixes prices at marginal cost equal marginal revenue there would be an incentive for firms to enter the market creating inefficiency. The Madrilenian industry has been chosen because of the availability of statistical information on costs and production. The complex industry structure and the atomised demand add interest to the analysis. This study will also provide some light on the tariff regulation of the period which has been poorly studied and will complement the literature on the US electric utilities regulation where a different type of regulation was implemented.

Distribution and Schistosoma mansoni infection of Biomphalaria glabrata in different habitats in a rural area in the Jequitinhonha Valley, Minas Gerais, Brazil: environmental and epidemiological aspects

This paper examines the distribution and infection of Biomphalaria glabrata with Schistosoma mansoni in all aquatic snail habitats in a rural area in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in relation to physico/biotic and behavioral factors. Snail and environmental surveys were carried out semi-annually between July 2001 and November 2002 at 106 sites. Collected snails were examined in the laboratory for infection. B. glabrata densities were highest in overflow ponds, irrigation ponds, springs, canals and wells, and lowest in fishponds and water tanks. Snail densities were higher during the hot, rainy season except for streams and canals and were statistically associated with the presence of fish, pollution, and vegetation density. Tilapia fish and an unidentified Diptera larva were found to be predators of B. glabrata but ducks were not. Twenty-four of the 25 infected snails were collected in 2001(1.4% infection rate) and only one in 2002, after mass chemotherapy. The occurrence of B. glabrata in all 11 snail habitats both at and away from water contact sites studied indicates widespread risk of human infection in the study area. In spite of the strong association between B. glabrata and tilapia in fishponds we do not recommend its use in schistosomiasis control for ecological reasons and its relative inefficiency in streams and dams.

Hyperfrontality and hypoconnectivity during refreshing in schizophrenia.

Anomalous activations of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) and posterior cerebral areas have been reported in previous studies of working memory in schizophrenia. Several interpretations have been reported: e.g., neural inefficiency, the use of different strategies and differences in the functional organization of the cerebral cortex. To better understand these abnormal activations, we investigated the cerebral bases of a working memory component process, namely refreshing (i.e., thinking briefly of a just-activated representation). Fifteen patients with schizophrenia and 15 control subjects participated in this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study. Participants were told that whenever they saw a word on the screen, they had to read it silently to themselves (read and repeat conditions), and when they saw a dot, they had to think of the just-previous word (refresh condition). The refresh condition (in comparison with the read condition) was associated with significantly increased activation in the left inferior frontal gyrus and significantly decreased connectivity within the prefrontal cortex and between the prefrontal and parietal cortices in patients with schizophrenia in comparison with control subjects. These results suggest that prefrontal dysfunctions in schizophrenia might be related to a defective ability to initiate (rather than to execute) specific cognitive processes.

Determinants of school efficiency : The case of primary schools in the State of Geneva, Switzerland

The public primary school system in the State of Geneva, Switzerland, is characterized by centrally evaluated pupil performance measured with the use of standardized tests. As a result, consistent data are collected among the system. The 2010-2011 dataset is used to develop a two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) of school efficiency. In the first stage, DEA is employed to calculate an individual efficiency score for each school. It shows that, on average, each school could reduce its inputs by 7% whilst maintaining the same quality of pupil performance. The cause of inefficiency lies in perfectible management. In the second stage, efficiency is regressed on school characteristics and environmental variables;external factors outside of the control of headteachers. The model is tested for multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and endogeneity. Four variables are identified as statistically significant. School efficiency is negatively influenced by (1) the provision of special education, (2) the proportion of disadvantaged pupils enrolled at the school and (3) operations being held on multiple sites, but positively influenced by school size (captured by the number of pupils). The proportion of allophone pupils; schools located in urban areas and the provision of reception classes for immigrant pupils are not significant. Although the significant variables influencing school efficiency are outside of the control of headteachers, it is still possible to either boost the positive impact or curb the negative impact. Dans le canton de Genève (Suisse), les écoles publiques primaires sont caractérisées par un financement assuré par les collectivités publiques (canton et communes) et par une évaluation des élèves à l'aide d'épreuves standardisées à trois moments distincts de leur scolarité. Cela permet de réunir des informations statistiques consistantes. La base de données de l'année 2010-2011 est utilisée dans une analyse en deux étapes de l'efficience des écoles. Dans une première étape, la méthode d'analyse des données par enveloppement (DEA) est utilisée pour calculer un score d'efficience pour chaque école. Cette analyse démontre que l'efficience moyenne des écoles s'élève à 93%. Chaque école pourrait, en moyenne, réduire ses ressources de 7% tout en conservant constants les résultats des élèves aux épreuves standardisées. La source de l'inefficience réside dans un management des écoles perfectible. Dans une seconde étape, les scores d'efficience sont régressés sur les caractéristiques des écoles et sur des variables environnementales. Ces variables ne sont pas sous le contrôle (ou l'influence) des directeurs d'école. Le modèle est testé pour la multicolinéartié, l'hétéroscédasticité et l'endogénéité. Quatre variables sont statistiquement significatives. L'efficience des écoles est influencée négativement par (1) le fait d'offrir un enseignement spécialisé en classe séparée, (2) la proporition d'élèves défavorisés et (3) le fait d'opérer sur plusieurs sites différents. L'efficience des écoles est influencée positivement par la taille de l'école, mesurée par le nombre d'élèves. La proporition d'élèves allophones, le fait d'être situé dans une zone urbaine et d'offrir des classes d'accueil pour les élèves immigrants constituent autant de variables non significatives. Le fait que les variables qui influencent l'efficience des écoles ne soient pas sous le contrôle des directeurs ne signifie pas qu'il faille céder au fatalisme. Différentes pistes sont proposées pour permettre soit de réduire l'impact négatif soit de tirer parti de l'impact positif des variables significatives.

Behavioral aspects of investment fund's markets: are good managers lucky or skilled?

It is generally accepted that financial markets are efficient in the long run a lthough there may be some deviations in the short run. It is also accepted that a good portfolio manager is the one who beats the market persistently along time, this type of manager could not exist if markets were perfectly efficient According to this in a pure efficient market we should find that managers know that they can not beat the market so they would undertake only pure passive management strategies. Assuming a certain degree of inefficiency in the short run, a market may show some managers who tr y to beat the market by undertaking active strategies. From Fama’s efficient markets theory we can state that these active managers may beat the market occasionally although they will not be able to enhance significantly their performance in the long run. On the other hand, in an inefficient market it would be expected to find a higher level of activity related with the higher probability of beating the market. In this paper we follow two objectives: first, we set a basis to analyse the level of efficiency in an asset invest- ment funds market by measuring performance, strategies activity and it’s persistence for a certain group of funds during the period of study. Second, we analyse individual performance persistence in order to determine the existence of skilled managers. The CAPM model is taken as theoretical background and the use of the Sharpe’s ratio as a suitable performance measure in a limited information environment leads to a group performance measurement proposal. The empiri- cal study takes quarterly data from 1999-2007 period, for the whole population of the Spanish asset investment funds market, provided by the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores). This period of study has been chosen to ensure a wide enough range of efficient market observation so it would allow us to set a proper basis to compare with the following period. As a result we develop a model that allows us to measure efficiency in a given asset mutual funds market, based on the level of strategy’s activity undertaken by managers. We also observe persistence in individual performance for a certain group of funds

Autosuficiència energètica. Estudi pilot a Alinyà (Alt Urgell)

A aquest estudi s'ha analitzat si és viable l'autosuficiència energètica en base a un estudi pilot al nucli rural d'Alinyà aprofitant els recursos naturals de la zona. S'ha realitzat un estudi del consum energètic de la població i s'ha comparat amb el potencial de producció energètica dels recursos renovables locals incloent energia provinent de la biomassa i aprofitada en calderes individuals per a cada habitatge, energia solar en teulades i energia hidroelèctrica a partir de centrals minihidràuliques restaurades ja existents. També s’ha realitzat un anàlisi per detectar possibles factors d’ineficiència energètica i a partir d’aquí, proposar una sèrie de mesures per corregir aquesta. S'han comptabilitzat les emissions de CO2 derivades del consum energètic i les proporcions que representa cada tipus de font energètica sobre el total del nucli. També s'ha establert una comparativa del consum mitjà per habitant i any entre la població i Catalunya; el consum a Alinyà és d'1,46 Tep's, mentre que el de Catalunya és d'1,7 Tep's, el nostre estudi no contempla la mobilitat, si se li resta aquest vector a la mitjana de Catalunya veiem que és de 0,9 Tep's, per tant, hi observem un major consum energètic. El 76% del consum d'Alinyà prové dels combustibles fòssils, concretament del gasoil, el nucli té una forta dependència respecte a aquesta energia, que a més a més representa el 86% (56T CO2 eq.) de les emissions totals de CO2. Per finalitzar, s'ha demostrat que és possible assolir l'autosuficiència energètica mitjançant l'implantació d'una combinació d'estratègies, viables en tots els aspectes; tant tècnics com socioeconòmics. Abastint el poble d'energia a un menor cost econòmic i amb un estil de vida més respectuós amb el medi ambient.

Fronts from complex two-dimensional dispersal kernels: theory and application to Reid's paradox

Bimodal dispersal probability distributions with characteristic distances differing by several orders of magnitude have been derived and favorably compared to observations by Nathan [Nature (London) 418, 409 (2002)]. For such bimodal kernels, we show that two-dimensional molecular dynamics computer simulations are unable to yield accurate front speeds. Analytically, the usual continuous-space random walks (CSRWs) are applied to two dimensions. We also introduce discrete-space random walks and use them to check the CSRW results (because of the inefficiency of the numerical simulations). The physical results reported are shown to predict front speeds high enough to possibly explain Reid's paradox of rapid tree migration. We also show that, for a time-ordered evolution equation, fronts are always slower in two dimensions than in one dimension and that this difference is important both for unimodal and for bimodal kernels

The Harsh Fight against Poverty in Sao Tome and Principe

post-independence, and on the other hand, the testimonies from Sao Tomeans individuals from different social conditions and different degrees of political responsibility, this article approaches some possible connections between poverty and micro-violence in Sao Tome and Principe. It is offered an outline of research for the difficulties of the eradication of poverty and, concomitantly, the diffusion of a growing feeling of social disruption, processes in all contrary to the promises of independence for this archipelago. Frequently, the archipelago’s visitors make hasty opinions about the imaginary effortlessness of governing two islands with less than one hundred and fifty thousand citizens. However, contrary to this very common prejudice, the micro-insularity is considered an obstacle to development, a notion shared by many Sao Tomeans. Could micro-insularity equally be, under this outlook, an impoverishment-inducing factor? Regarding the development, there is some truth in this diagnosis, which the Sao Tomeans also use to justify their current difficulties. Throughout the 70s and 80s, the MLSTP – Movimento de Libertação de São Tomé e Príncipe (Movement for the Liberation of Sao Tome and Principe) endorsed a development founded on an expansion of cacao cultures, at the expenses of an intensified production rate, and on an incipient industrialization, which was intended to avoid importations and economic dependency. At the time, the Sao Tomeans leaders justified the rising daily difficulties, quite the opposite of the promises made during the independence, with an economic disarticulation resulting from the gradual abandonment of economic infrastructures inflicted by the last batch of colonists, which affected the cacao plantations too. Simultaneously, both the inefficiency and cost of the industrial endeavors launched after the independence and the erosion of labor and social relationships in nationalized farms had been rather neglected.