Avaliação da disponibilidade hídrica e da demanda hídrica no trecho do Rio Piranhas-Açu entre os açudes Coremas-mãe D´água e Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves

Piranhas-Açu basin is a Federal watershed with a drainage area of 43.681,5 km2, sited at Brazilian northeast semi arid, with 60% of your area in Paraiba State and 40% in Rio Grande do Norte State. The main river, Piranhas-Açu, has strategic importance for development of these states, because it s an essential source for many socio-economics activities developed along watercourse. The river s reach between Coremas-Mãe D`água Dam and Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves Dam has many irrigation projects, and supply many riverside cities. All this activities practiced in this river s reach consumes high water volumes. Due the importance of this stream and the necessity of an adequate management, this work aims for an impartial and detailed evaluation of real water supply conditions in this river s reach, by the application of hydrological modeling, including the arrangement of main dams in tributaries, and storage reservoir water balance. The rainfall-discharge model s applied in each sub-basins it was selected the model MODHISA- Hydrological Model of Semi Arid, that is a concentrated model with easy application. The simulation produced 50 years of inflows into the reservoirs, for which, were constructed the guaranties curves; and produced 50 years of synthetic discharge data in relevant points on the river and on its affluents; so it was constructed the permanence curves. Confronting the available discharge with the current and futures volumes of raw water captured in this river s reach, it was verified that de demands have high guaranties. This work concluded that the MODHISA Model is suitable to reproduce the hydrologic characteristics of Piranhas-Açu sub-basins, and showing good results

Análise e modelagem hidrometeorológica na Bacia do Rio Tocantins em Marabá-PA

Esta pesquisa objetivou desenvolver um modelo estatístico de previsão de vazão para Marabá - PA, bem como avaliar a estrutura dinâmica atmosférica associada aos extremos do regime hidrológico da bacia do rio Tocantins. O modelo hidrológico de regressão linear múltipla utilizou as séries de observações fluviométricas e pluviométricas obtidas no banco de dados da ANA. Os testes de validação do modelo estatístico com coeficiente de Nash acima de 0,9 e erro padrão de 1,5 % e 5% nos períodos de cheia e estiagem, respectivamente, permitem que as previsões de vazão em Marabá possam ser geradas com antecedência de 2 a 4 (3 a 5) dias para o período da cheia (estiagem). Através da técnica de composições considerando todos os anos com registro de vazão acima/muito acima e abaixo/muito abaixo do normal, obtidos pela metodologia dos percentis, investigaram-se as características regionais da precipitação e a estrutura dinâmica atmosférica em cada mês (Novembro a Abril). As composições dos anos com vazão acima/muito acima mostraram que a precipitação sobre a bacia foi acima do normal em todos os meses, sendo que os padrões de grande escala indicaram a configuração associada ao fenômeno La Niña no Pacífico e condições de resfriamento no Atlântico Sul; intensificação tanto do ramo ascendente zonal da célula de Walker como do ramo ascendente meridional da célula de Hadley; intensificação da Alta da Bolívia posicionada mais a leste e anomalias negativas de ROL associadas à atuação conjunta da ZCAS e ZCIT. Inversamente, as composições dos anos com vazão abaixo/muito abaixo evidenciaram a predominância de precipitação abaixo do normal em toda bacia hidrográfica, a qual se associou com as condições de aquecimento (El Niño) sobre o Pacífico, Atlântico sul aquecido, célula de Walker e Hadley com enfraquecimento dos movimentos ascendentes, posicionamento da Alta da Bolívia mais a oeste com anomalias positivas de ROL indicando inibição da atividade convectiva tropical. Adicionalmente, uma análise quantitativa dos impactos sócio-econômicos sobre os principais núcleos da cidade de Marabá revelou que aproximadamente 10 mil pessoas (5% da população) são atingidas pela cheia do rio Tocantins com custos nas operações de enchente acima de R$ 500.000,00, considerando o caso de 2005.

Desenvolvimento de um sistema de alerta de enchente aplicado aos planos de defesa civil em áreas de risco no estado do Pará utilizando Sistema de Informações Geográficas (SIG), caso: cidade de Marabá

A presente dissertação desenvolveu um Sistema de Alerta de Enchentes para a Cidade de Marabá, localizada na confluência dos rios Itacaiúnas e Tocantins, a 440 km da cidade de Belém, capital do Estado do Pará. O Sistema de Alerta de Enchentes foi desenvolvido com base no modelo hidrológico MOD-4B incorporado a um Sistema de Informações Geográficas. Esse sistema permite prever as variações do nível do Rio Tocantins ao longo do ano, de modo a acompanhar a evolução da cheia com antecedência de 4 dias, o que torna possível uma ação eficiente da defesa civil. O modelo de previsão utilizou como referência as réguas linimétricas localizadas nos rios Tocantins e Araguaia nas cidades de Carolina e Conceição do Araguaia, distantes aproximadamente 225 e 270 km, respectivamente, da cidade de Marabá. O sistema utiliza o software de geoprocessamento ArcView 3.3, que teve implementada uma interface desenvolvida através da linguagem de programação orientada a objetos Avenue, com a finalidade de rodar o aplicativo do modelo hidrológico. O uso de menus e janelas customizados do sistema possibilitou o acesso a dados espaciais e tabelas de dados relacionais e/ou banco de dados cadastral, além de módulos de análise espacial e de visualização de dados geográficos em um Sistema de Informações Geográficas (SIG), possibilitando a previsão de enchentes na forma de mapas, tabelas e relatórios com a indicação das áreas inundadas para os períodos de 4, 3, 2 e 1 dia de antecedência do evento de enchente. O Sistema permitiu identificar os imóveis e as ruas atingidos, e possibilitará através de levantamentos futuros quantificar a população afetada e os prejuízos causados pelo desastre, facilitando que a defesa civil execute planos de ação para enfrentamento eficiente antes, durante e depois da ocorrência da enchente.

Aplicação de modelagem hidrológica associada à análise geoespacial, para caracterização da vazão na micro Central Hidroelétrica Ilha Anchieta - SP

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Metodologia para determinação de volume de detenção em pequenas bacias urbanas: o caso do córrego Wenzel, Rio Claro/SP

With the accelerated urbanization process of Brazil from the 50s, there was a disorderly occupation of spaces and consequent soil sealing. Unlike this growth, the support capacity of urban environments has not evolved in the same way, generating negative environmental impacts to the citizens. Among these impacts are the effects of flooding. In order to minimize the negative effects of extreme precipitation over cities, the government invests in corrective measures, like compensatory techniques on urban drainage, which have as a basic principle the retention and infiltration of the rainfall, dampening the peak flow and runoff. An example of applying these techniques in urban areas are the detention basins, commonly called large pools. The hydraulic design of these structures is dependent of complex data and variables, and projects involving small areas generally use simplified methods for defining the reservoirs volume of the storage (Tassi, 2005). One of these methods is presented in this study, which relates to the percentage of soil sealing to the specific storage volume (m³/ha) in combination by applying the hydrological model of the Rational Method and analyzing regional rainfall and soil occupation over the basin. Within this context, the basin of the Wenzel stream, which is located amidst the urban area of Rio Claro/SP, also presents the problems related to human occupation in its valley. Thus, by the method presented has been adjusted a curve correlating the percentage of impermeable area and the specific volume of a detention basin. For the current situation of Wenzel Basin with 82% of impermeable area, and return period of 10 years, the specific volume is 262.1 m³/ha. The presented method is consistent with the results of other studies in the area, and the expression obtained allows estimating the volume of storage required to match hydrograph pre and post-occupancy. It presents itself as a useful tool in the planning stage of...

Modelo hidrológico SWAT na determinação das perdas de solo na bacia hidrológica do Rio Pardo - Botucatu/SP

The objective of this work was to evaluate the sediment production in the initial part of the Pardo River Basin - Botucatu/SP from 1994 to 1999, using the mathematical hydrological model SWAT. It was used topographic maps and satellite data manipulated in GIS using the software SPRING 5.1.6. The simulation of sediment production was generated with the aid of an interface between the hydrological model SWAT 2009 with ArcView ®, version 9.3. The maps of Soil, Land Use and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were generated in the GIS-SPRING 5.1.6 and exported to ArcSWAT 2009. The tabular data related to the parameters of soil and meteorological parameters were entered directly to the SWAT. The model allowed to estimate the sediment production. A sediment average production rate of 33.866 ton ha-1 over the six years of study was computed in the point of discharge of the basin.

A MODIS-Based Energy Balance to Estimate Evapotranspiration for Clear-Sky Days in Brazilian Tropical Savannas

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in global climate dynamics and in primary production of terrestrial ecosystems; it represents the mass and energy transfer from the land to atmosphere. Limitations to measuring ET at large scales using ground-based methods have motivated the development of satellite remote sensing techniques. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the accuracy of the SEBAL algorithm for estimating surface turbulent heat fluxes at regional scale, using 28 images from MODIS. SEBAL estimates are compared with eddy-covariance (EC) measurements and results from the hydrological model MGB-IPH. SEBAL instantaneous estimates of latent heat flux (LE) yielded r(2) = 0.64 and r(2) = 0.62 over sugarcane croplands and savannas when compared against in situ EC estimates. At the same sites, daily aggregated estimates of LE were r(2) = 0.76 and r(2) = 0.66, respectively. Energy balance closure showed that turbulent fluxes over sugarcane croplands were underestimated by 7% and 9% over savannas. Average daily ET from SEBAL is in close agreement with estimates from the hydrological model for an overlay of 38,100 km(2) (r(2) = 0.88). Inputs to which the algorithm is most sensitive are vegetation index (NDVI), gradient of temperature (dT) to compute sensible heat flux (H) and net radiation (Re). It was verified that SEBAL has a tendency to overestimate results both at local and regional scales probably because of low sensitivity to soil moisture and water stress. Nevertheless the results confirm the potential of the SEBAL algorithm, when used with MODIS images for estimating instantaneous LE and daily ET from large areas.

Stima dei parametri di modelli idrologici mediante ottimizzazione dell’utilità

Tradizionalmente, l'obiettivo della calibrazione di un modello afflussi-deflussi è sempre stato quello di ottenere un set di parametri (o una distribuzione di probabilità dei parametri) che massimizzasse l'adattamento dei dati simulati alla realtà osservata, trattando parzialmente le finalità applicative del modello. Nel lavoro di tesi viene proposta una metodologia di calibrazione che trae spunto dell'evidenza che non sempre la corrispondenza tra dati osservati e simulati rappresenti il criterio più appropriato per calibrare un modello idrologico. Ai fini applicativi infatti, può risultare maggiormente utile una miglior rappresentazione di un determinato aspetto dell'idrogramma piuttosto che un altro. Il metodo di calibrazione che viene proposto mira a valutare le prestazioni del modello stimandone l'utilità nell'applicazione prevista. Tramite l'utilizzo di opportune funzioni, ad ogni passo temporale viene valutata l'utilità della simulazione ottenuta. La calibrazione viene quindi eseguita attraverso la massimizzazione di una funzione obiettivo costituita dalla somma delle utilità stimate nei singoli passi temporali. Le analisi mostrano come attraverso l'impiego di tali funzioni obiettivo sia possibile migliorare le prestazioni del modello laddove ritenute di maggior interesse per per le finalità applicative previste.

Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Modelling Lake Kivu water level variations over the last seven decades

This study aimed at analysing the hydrological changes in the Lake Kivu Basin over the last seven decades with focus on the response of the lake water level to meteorological factors and hydropower dam construction. Historical precipitation and lake water levels were acquired from literature, local agencies and from global databases in order to compile a coherent dataset. The net lake inflow was modelled using a soil water balance model and the water levels were reconstructed using a parsimonious lake water balance model. The soil water balance shows that 370 mm yr−1 (25%) of the precipitation in the catchment contributes to the runoff and baseflow whereas 1100 mm yr−1 (75%) contributes to the evapotranspiration. A review of the lake water balance resulted in the following estimates of hydrological contributions: 55%, 25%, and 20% of the overall inputs from precipitation, surface inflows, and subaquatic groundwater discharge, respectively. The overall losses were 58% and 42% for lake surface evaporation and outflow discharge, respectively. The hydrological model used indicated a remarkable sensitivity of the lake water levels to hydrometeorological variability up to 1977, when the outflow bed was artificially widened.

Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+ 40%) and irrigation (+ 25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues.

Extreme River Floods in Western Switzerland and the Lake of Constance Region in the Period Prior to Instrumental Measurements

The floods that occurred on the Aare and Rhine rivers in May 2015 and the mostly successful handling of this event in terms of flood protection measures are a good reminder of how important it is to comprehend the causes and processes involved in such natural hazards. While the needed data series of gauge measurements and peak discharge calculations reach back to the 19th century, historical records dating further back in time can provide additional and useful information to help understanding extreme flood events and to evaluate prevention measures such as river dams and corrections undertaken prior to instrumental measurements. In my PhD project I will use a wide range of historical sources to assess and quantify past extreme flood events. It is part of the SNF-funded project “Reconstruction of the Genesis, Process and Impact of Major Pre-instrumental Flood Events of Major Swiss Rivers Including a Peak Discharge Quantification” and will cover the research locations Fribourg (Saane R.), Burgdorf (Emme R.), Thun, Bern (both Aare R.), and the Lake of Constance at the locations Lindau, Constance and Rorschach. My main goals are to provide a long time series of quantitative data for extreme flood events, to discuss the occurring changes in these data, and to evaluate the impact of the aforementioned human influences on the drainage system. Extracting information given in account books from the towns of Basel and Solothurn may also enable me to assess the frequency and seasonality of less severe river floods. Finally, historical information will be used for remodeling the historical hydrological regime to homogenize the historical data series to modern day conditions and thus make it comparable to the data provided by instrumental measurements. The method I will apply for processing all information provided by historical sources such as chronicles, newspapers, institutional records, as well as flood marks, paintings and archeological evidence has been developed and successfully applied to the site of Basel by Wetter et al. (2011). They have also shown that data homogenization is possible by reconstructing previous stream flow conditions using historical river profiles and by carefully observing and re-constructing human changes of the river bed and its surroundings. Taken all information into account, peak discharges for past extreme flood events will be calculated with a one-dimensional hydrological model.

Estimación de la evapotranspiración real regional a partir de datos satelitales

El objetivo del presente trabajo fue determinar la Evapotranspiración real (ETR) a nivel regional utilizando la información del satélite meteorológico NOAA-AVHRR y comparar los resultados obtenidos con los calculados a partir de un modelo de simulación de balance hídrico. Para la estimación de la ETR se analizaron 30 imágenes que abarcan el oasis Norte de Mendoza. Con la información de los canales C1 (Visible) y C2 (IRC) se obtuvo el índice verde normalizado (NDVI), a través del cual se siguió la evolución anual de la vegetación y con la correspondiente al Infrarrojo térmico (C4 y C5) se calculó la Temperatura de superficie (Ts) por el método Split - Windows Luego se vinculó la Ts calculada por teledetección con la temperatura del aire (Ta), para finalmente calcular la suma acumulada de las diferencias entre Ts y Ta, conocida como SDD (stress degree day) que permite estimar globalmente las características de stress hídrico a nivel regional. Conociendo (Ts-Ta) se estimó la ETR a partir de la radiación neta y de los coeficientes A y B que se estimaron según las características de la cobertura vegetal, aplicando una relación simplificada a partir del balance de energía, desarrollado por Jackson (1977) y Seguin (1983) según la ecuación: ETR = Rn + A -B ( Ts - Ta ) Posteriormente, se incluyó en los cálculos los valores de Emisividad y se hizo variar el coeficiente B de acuerdo a la ocupación del suelo en cada uno de los polígonos en que fue dividida el área de estudio. En la etapa final se compararon estadísticamente los datos de ETR estimados por los distintos métodos con los simulados por el modelo y se obtuvo como conclusión final que: la estimación de la ETR a nivel regional mediante datos satelitales, se adapta muy bien a la mayoría de los casos y es sencilla de calcular, por lo que la metodología desarrollada es fácilmente extrapolable a otros oasis de la región.

Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results