The complex history of the olive tree: from Late Quaternary diversification of Mediterranean lineages to primary domestication in the northern Levant.

The location and timing of domestication of the olive tree, a key crop in Early Mediterranean societies, remain hotly debated. Here, we unravel the history of wild olives (oleasters), and then infer the primary origins of the domesticated olive. Phylogeography and Bayesian molecular dating analyses based on plastid genome profiling of 1263 oleasters and 534 cultivated genotypes reveal three main lineages of pre-Quaternary origin. Regional hotspots of plastid diversity, species distribution modelling and macrofossils support the existence of three long-term refugia; namely the Near East (including Cyprus), the Aegean area and the Strait of Gibraltar. These ancestral wild gene pools have provided the essential foundations for cultivated olive breeding. Comparison of the geographical pattern of plastid diversity between wild and cultivated olives indicates the cradle of first domestication in the northern Levant followed by dispersals across the Mediterranean basin in parallel with the expansion of civilizations and human exchanges in this part of the world.

Segmental copy number variation shapes tissue transcriptomes

Abstract : Copy number variation (CNV) of DNA segments has recently gained considerable interest as a source of genetic variation likely to play a role in phenotypic diversity and evolution. Much effort has been put into the identification and mapping of regions that vary in copy number among seemingly normal individuals, both in humans and in a number of model organisms, using both bioinformatic and hybridization-based methods. Synteny studies suggest the existence of CNV hotspots in mammalian genomes, often in connection with regions of segmental duplication. CNV alleles can be in equilibrium within a population, but can also arise de novo between generations, illustrating the highly dynamic nature of these regions. A small number of studies have assessed the effect of CNV on single loci, however, at the genome-wide scale, the functional impact of CNV remains poorly studied. We have explored the influence of CNV on gene expression, first using the Williams-Beuren syndrome (WBS) associated deletion as a model, and second at the genome-wide scale in inbred mouse strains. We found that the WBS deletion influences the expression levels not only of the hemizygous genes, but also affects the euploid genes mapping nearby. Consistently, on a genome wide scale we observe that CNV genes are expressed at more variable levels than genes that do not vary in copy number. Likewise, CNVs influence the relative expression levels of genes that map to the flank of the genome rearrangements, thus globally influencing tissue transcriptomes. Further studies are warranted to complete cataloguing and fine mapping of CNV regions, as well as to elucidate the different mechanisms by which CNVs influence gene expression. Résumé : La variation en nombre de copies (copy number variation ou CNV) de segments d'ADN suscite un intérêt en tant que variation génétique susceptible de jouer un r81e dans la diversité phénotypique et l'évolution. Les régions variables en nombre de copies parmi des individus apparemment normaux ont été cartographiées et cataloguées au moyen de puces à ADN et d'analyse bioinformatique. L'étude de la synténie entre plusieurs espèces de mammifères laisse supposer l'existence de régions à haut taux de variation, souvent liées à des duplications segmentaires. Les allèles CNV peuvent être en équilibre au sein d'une population ou peuvent apparaître de novo. Ces faits illustrent la nature hautement dynamique de ces régions. Quelques études se sont penchées sur l'effet de la variation en nombre de copies de loci isolés, cependant l'impact de ce phénomène n'a pas été étudié à l'échelle génomique. Nous avons examiné l'influence des CNV sur l'expression des gènes. Dans un premier temps nous avons utilisé la délétion associée au syndrome de Williams-Beuren (WBS), puis, dans un second temps, nous avons poursuivi notre étude à l'échelle du génome, dans des lignées consanguines de souris. Nous avons établi que la délétion WBS influence l'expression non seulement des gènes hémizygotes, mais également celle des gènes euploïdes voisins. A l'échelle génomique, nous observons des phénomènes concordants. En effet, l'expression des gènes variant en nombre de copies est plus variable que celles des gènes ne variant pas. De plus, à l'instar de la délétion WBS, les CNV influencent l'expression des gènes adjacents, exerçant ainsi un impact global sur les profils d'expression dans les tissus. Résumé pour un large public : De nombreuses maladies ont pour cause un défaut génétique. Parmi les types de mutations, on compte la disparition (délétion) d'une partie de notre génome ou sa duplication. Bien que l'on connaisse les anomalies associées à certaines maladies, les mécanismes moléculaires par lesquels ces réarrangements de notre matériel génétique induisent les maladies sont encore méconnus. C'est pourquoi nous nous sommes intéressés à la régulation des gènes dans les régions susceptibles à délétion ou duplication. Dans ce travail, nous avons démontré que les délétions et les duplications influencent la régulation des gènes situés à proximité, et que ces changements interviennent dans plusieurs organes.

Genomics of the divergence continuum in an African plant biodiversity hotspot, I: drivers of population divergence in Restio capensis (Restionaceae).

Understanding the drivers of population divergence, speciation and species persistence is of great interest to molecular ecology, especially for species-rich radiations inhabiting the world's biodiversity hotspots. The toolbox of population genomics holds great promise for addressing these key issues, especially if genomic data are analysed within a spatially and ecologically explicit context. We have studied the earliest stages of the divergence continuum in the Restionaceae, a species-rich and ecologically important plant family of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, using the widespread CFR endemic Restio capensis (L.) H.P. Linder & C.R. Hardy as an example. We studied diverging populations of this morphotaxon for plastid DNA sequences and >14 400 nuclear DNA polymorphisms from Restriction site Associated DNA (RAD) sequencing and analysed the results jointly with spatial, climatic and phytogeographic data, using a Bayesian generalized linear mixed modelling (GLMM) approach. The results indicate that population divergence across the extreme environmental mosaic of the CFR is mostly driven by isolation by environment (IBE) rather than isolation by distance (IBD) for both neutral and non-neutral markers, consistent with genome hitchhiking or coupling effects during early stages of divergence. Mixed modelling of plastid DNA and single divergent outlier loci from a Bayesian genome scan confirmed the predominant role of climate and pointed to additional drivers of divergence, such as drift and ecological agents of selection captured by phytogeographic zones. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of population genomics for disentangling the effects of IBD and IBE along the divergence continuum often found in species radiations across heterogeneous ecological landscapes.

Novel H3K4me3 marks are enriched at human- and chimpanzee-specific cytogenetic structures.

Human and chimpanzee genomes are 98.8% identical within comparable sequences. However, they differ structurally in nine pericentric inversions, one fusion that originated human chromosome 2, and content and localization of heterochromatin and lineage-specific segmental duplications. The possible functional consequences of these cytogenetic and structural differences are not fully understood and their possible involvement in speciation remains unclear. We show that subtelomeric regions-regions that have a species-specific organization, are more divergent in sequence, and are enriched in genes and recombination hotspots-are significantly enriched for species-specific histone modifications that decorate transcription start sites in different tissues in both human and chimpanzee. The human lineage-specific chromosome 2 fusion point and ancestral centromere locus as well as chromosome 1 and 18 pericentric inversion breakpoints showed enrichment of human-specific H3K4me3 peaks in the prefrontal cortex. Our results reveal an association between plastic regions and potential novel regulatory elements.

'Next generation' biogeography: towards understanding the drivers of species diversification and persistence

The drivers of species diversification and persistence are of great interest to current biogeography, especially in those global biodiversity hotspots' harbouring most of Earth's animal and plant life. Classical multispecies biogeographical work has yielded fascinating insights into broad-scale patterns of diversification, and DNA-based intraspecific phylogeographical studies have started to complement this picture at much finer temporal and spatial scales. The advent of novel next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies provides the opportunity to greatly scale up the numbers of individuals, populations and species sampled, potentially merging intraspecific and interspecific approaches to biogeographical inference. Here, we outline these prospects and issues by using the example of an undisputed hotspot, the Cape of southern Africa. We outline the current state of knowledge on the biogeography of species diversification within the Cape, review the literature for phylogeographical evidence of its likely drivers and mechanisms, and suggest possible ways forward based on NGS approaches. We demonstrate the potential of these methods and current bioinformatic issues with the help of restriction-site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing data for three highly divergent species of the Restionaceae, an important plant radiation in the Cape. A thorough understanding of the mechanisms that facilitate species diversification and persistence in spatially structured, species-rich environments will require the adoption of novel genomic and bioinformatic tools in biogeographical studies.

Morphological, ecological and genetic aspects associated with endemism in the Fly Orchid group.

The European genus Ophrys (Orchidaceae) is famous for its insect-like floral morphology, an adaptation for a pseudocopulatory pollination strategy involving Hymenoptera males. A large number of endemic Ophrys species have recently been described, especially within the Mediterranean Basin, which is one of the major species diversity hotspots. Subtle morphological variation and specific pollinator dependence are the two main perceptible criteria for describing numerous endemic taxa. However, the degree to which endemics differ genetically remains a challenging question. Additionally, knowledge regarding the factors underlying the emergence of such endemic entities is limited. To achieve new insights regarding speciation processes in Ophrys, we have investigated species boundaries in the Fly Orchid group (Ophrys insectifera sensu lato) by examining morphological, ecological and genetic evidence. Classically, authors have recognized one widespread taxon (O. insectifera) and two endemics (O. aymoninii from France and O. subinsectifera from Spain). Our research has identified clear morphological and ecological factors segregating among these taxa; however, genetic differences were more ambiguous. Insights from cpDNA sequencing and amplified fragment length polymorphisms genotyping indicated a recent diversification in the three extant Fly Orchid species, which may have been further obscured by active migration and admixture across the European continent. Our genetic results still indicate weak but noticeable phylogeographic clustering that partially correlates with the described species. Particularly, we report several isolated haplotypes and genetic clusters in central and southeastern Europe. With regard to the morphological, ecological and genetic aspects, we discuss the endemism status within the Fly Orchid group from evolutionary, taxonomical and conservation perspectives.

Hominoid fission of chromosome 14/15 and the role of segmental duplications.

Ape chromosomes homologous to human chromosomes 14 and 15 were generated by a fission event of an ancestral submetacentric chromosome, where the two chromosomes were joined head-to-tail. The hominoid ancestral chromosome most closely resembles the macaque chromosome 7. In this work, we provide insights into the evolution of human chromosomes 14 and 15, performing a comparative study between macaque boundary region 14/15 and the orthologous human regions. We construct a 1.6-Mb contig of macaque BAC clones in the region orthologous to the ancestral hominoid fission site and use it to define the structural changes that occurred on human 14q pericentromeric and 15q subtelomeric regions. We characterize the novel euchromatin-heterochromatin transition region (∼20 Mb) acquired during the neocentromere establishment on chromosome 14, and find it was mainly derived through pericentromeric duplications from ancestral hominoid chromosomes homologous to human 2q14-qter and 10. Further, we show a relationship between evolutionary hotspots and low-copy repeat loci for chromosome 15, revealing a possible role of segmental duplications not only in mediating but also in "stitching" together rearrangement breakpoints.

How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Tissue specificity in DNA repair: lessons from trinucleotide repeat instability.

DNA must constantly be repaired to maintain genome stability. Although it is clear that DNA repair reactions depend on cell type and developmental stage, we know surprisingly little about the mechanisms that underlie this tissue specificity. This is due, in part, to the lack of adequate study systems. This review discusses recent progress toward understanding the mechanism leading to varying rates of instability at expanded trinucleotide repeats (TNRs) in different tissues. Although they are not DNA lesions, TNRs are hotspots for genome instability because normal DNA repair activities cause changes in repeat length. The rates of expansions and contractions are readily detectable and depend on cell identity, making TNR instability a particularly convenient model system. A better understanding of this type of genome instability will provide a foundation for studying tissue-specific DNA repair more generally, which has implications in cancer and other diseases caused by mutations in the caretakers of the genome.

Multifunctionality and Diversity in Bacterial Biofilms

Bacteria are highly diverse and drive a bulk of ecosystem processes. Analysis of relationships between diversity and single specific ecosystem processes neglects the possibility that different species perform multiple functions at the same time. The degradation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) followed by respiration is a key bacterial function that is modulated by the availability of DOC and the capability to produce extracellular enzymes. In freshwater ecosystems, biofilms are metabolic hotspots and major sites of DOC degradation. We manipulated the diversity of biofilm forming communities which were fed with DOC differing in availability. We characterized community composition using molecular fingerprinting (T-RFLP) and measured functioning as oxygen consumption rates, the conversion of DOC in the medium, bacterial abundance and the activities of five specific enzymes. Based on assays of the extracellular enzyme activity, we calculated how the likelihood of sustaining multiple functions was affected by reduced diversity. Carbon source and biofilm age were strong drivers of community functioning, and we demonstrate how the likelihood of sustaining multifunctionality decreases with decreasing diversity

The Alps Vegetation Database - a geo-referenced community-level archive of all terrestrial plants occurring in the Alps.

Mountain ranges are biodiversity hotspots worldwide and provide refuge to many organisms under contemporary climate change. Gathering field information on mountain biodiversity over time is of primary importance to understand the response of biotic communities to climate changes. For plants, several long-term observation sites and networks of mountain biodiversity are emerging worldwide to gather field data and monitor altitudinal range shifts and community composition changes under contemporary climate change. Most of these monitoring sites, however, focus on alpine ecosystems and mountain summits, such as the global observation research initiative in alpine environments (GLORIA). Here we describe the Alps Vegetation Database, a comprehensive community level archive (GIVD ID EU-00-014) which aims at compiling all available geo-referenced vegetation plots from lowland forests to alpine grasslands across the greatest mountain range in Europe: the Alps. This research initiative was funded between 2008 and 2011 by the Danish Council for Independent Research and was part of a larger project to compare cross-scale plant community structure between the Alps and the Scandes. The Alps Vegetation Database currently harbours 35,731 geo-referenced vegetation plots and 5,023 valid taxa across Mediterranean, temperate and alpine environments. The data are mainly used by the main contributors of the Alps Vegetation Database in an ecoinformatics approach to test hypotheses related to plant macroecology and biogeography, but external proposals for joint collaborations are welcome.

Spatial variation of dung beetle assemblages associated with forest structure in remnants of southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest

ABSTRACT The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, and is currently highly fragmented and disturbed due to human activities. Variation in environmental conditions in the Atlantic Forest can influence the distribution of species, which may show associations with some environmental features. Dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeinae) are insects that act in nutrient cycling via organic matter decomposition and have been used for monitoring environmental changes. The aim of this study is to identify associations between the spatial distribution of dung beetle species and Atlantic Forest structure. The spatial distribution of some dung beetle species was associated with structural forest features. The number of species among the sampling sites ranged widely, and few species were found in all remnant areas. Principal coordinates analysis indicated that species composition, abundance and biomass showed a spatially structured distribution, and these results were corroborated by permutational multivariate analysis of variance. The indicator value index and redundancy analysis showed an association of several dung beetle species with some explanatory environmental variables related to Atlantic Forest structure. This work demonstrated the existence of a spatially structured distribution of dung beetles, with significant associations between several species and forest structure in Atlantic Forest remnants from Southern Brazil.

A new spin on a compositionalist predictive modelling framework for conservation planning: a tropical case study in Ecuador

Knowledge about spatial biodiversity patterns is a basic criterion for reserve network design. Although herbarium collections hold large quantities of information, the data are often scattered and cannot supply complete spatial coverage. Alternatively, herbarium data can be used to fit species distribution models and their predictions can be used to provide complete spatial coverage and derive species richness maps. Here, we build on previous effort to propose an improved compositionalist framework for using species distribution models to better inform conservation management. We illustrate the approach with models fitted with six different methods and combined using an ensemble approach for 408 plant species in a tropical and megadiverse country (Ecuador). As a complementary view to the traditional richness hotspots methodology, consisting of a simple stacking of species distribution maps, the compositionalist modelling approach used here combines separate predictions for different pools of species to identify areas of alternative suitability for conservation. Our results show that the compositionalist approach better captures the established protected areas than the traditional richness hotspots strategies and allows the identification of areas in Ecuador that would optimally complement the current protection network. Further studies should aim at refining the approach with more groups and additional species information.

Large-scale DNA sequencing in taxonomy and conservation : a case study with the mayfly family Heptageniidae (Ephemeroptera) in the Alps and Madagascar

Les larves aquatiques d'éphémères (Ephemeroptera) colonisent toutes les eaux douces du monde et sont couramment utilisées comme bio-indicateurs de la qualité de l'eau. Le genre Rhithrogena (Heptageniidae) est le deuxième plus diversifié chez les éphémères, et plusieurs espèces européennes ont une distribution restreinte dans des environnements alpins sensibles. Les espèces de Rhithrogena ont été classées en "groupes d'espèces" faciles à identifier. Cependant, malgré leur importance écologique et en terme de conservation, beaucoup d'espèces présentent des différences morphologiques ambiguës, suggérant que lataxonomie actuelle ne refléterait pas correctement leur diversité évolutive. De plus, aucune information sur leurs relations, leur origine, le taux de spéciation ou les mécanismes ayant provoqué leur remarquable diversification dans les Alpes n'est disponible. Nous avons d'abord examiné le statut spécifique d'environ 50% des espèces européennes de Rhithrogena en utilisant un large échantillonnage de populations alpines incluant 22 localités typiques, ainsi qu'une analyse basée sur le modèle général mixte de Yule et de coalescence (GMYC) appliqué à un gène mitochondrial standard (coxl) et à un gène nucléaire développé spécifiquement pour cette étude. Nous avons observé un regroupement significatif des séquences coxl en 31 espèces potentielles, et nos résultats ont fortement suggéré la présence d'espèces cryptiques et de fractionnements taxonomiques excessifs chez les Rhithrogena. Nos analyses phylogénétiques ont démontré la monophylie de quatre des six groupes d'espèces reconnus présents dans notre échantillonnage. La taxonomie ADN développée dans cette étude pose les bases d'une future révision de ce genre important mais cryptique en Europe. Puis nous avons mené une étude phylogénétique multi-gènes entre les espèces européennes de Rhithrogena. Les données provenant de trois gènes nucléaires et de deux gènes mitochondriaux ont été largement concordantes, et les relations entre les espèces bien résolues au sein de la plupart des groupes d'espèces dans une analyse combinant tous les gènes. En l'absence de points de calibration extérieurs tels que des fossiles, nous avons appliqué à nos données mitochondriales une horloge moléculaire standard pour les insectes, suggérant une origine des Rhithrogena alpins à la limite Oligocène / Miocène. Nos résultats ont montré le rôle prépondérant qu'ont joué les glaciations du quaternaire dans leur diversification, favorisant la spéciation d'au moins la moitié des espèces actuelle dans les Alpes. La biodiversité et le taux d'endémisme à Madagascar, notamment au niveau de la faune des eaux douces, sont parmi les plus extraordinaires et les plus menacés au monde. On pense que beaucoup d'espèces d'éphémères sont restreintes à un seul bassin versant (microendémisme) dans les zones forestières, ce qui les rendrait particulièrement sensibles à la réduction et à la dégradation de leur habitat. Mis à part deux espèces décrites, Afronurus matitensis et Compsoneuria josettae, les Heptageniidae sont pratiquement inconnus à Madagascar. Les deux genres ont une distribution discontinue en Afrique, à Madagascar et en Asie du Sud-Est, et leur taxonomie complexe est régulièrement révisée. L'approche standard pour comprendre leur diversité, leur endémisme et leur origine requerrait un échantillonnage étendu sur plusieurs continents et des années de travaux taxonomiques. Pour accélérer le processus, nous avons utilisé des collections de musées ainsi que des individus fraîchement collectés, et appliqué une approche combinant taxonomie ADN et phylogénie. L'analyses GMYC du gène coxl a délimité 14 espèces potentielles à Madagascar, dont 70% vraisemblablement microendémiques. Une analyse phylogénique incluant des espèces africaines et asiatiques portant sur deux gènes mitochondriaux et quatre gènes nucléaires a montré que les Heptageniidae malgaches sont monophylétiques et groupe frère des Compsoneuria africains. L'existence de cette lignée unique, ainsi qu'un taux élevé de microendémisme, mettent en évidence leur importance en terme de conservation. Nos résultats soulignent également le rôle important que peuvent jouer les collections de musées dans les études moléculaires et en conservation. - Aquatic nymphs of mayflies (Ephemeroptera) colonize all types of freshwaters throughout the world and are extensively used as bio-indicators of water quality. Rhithrogena (Heptageniidae) is the second most species-rich genus of mayflies, and several European species have restricted distributions in sensitive Alpine environments and therefore are of conservation interest. The European Rhithrogena species are arranged into "species groups" that are easily identifiable. However, despite their ecological and conservation importance, ambiguous morphological differences among many species suggest that the current taxonomy may not accurately reflect their evolutionary diversity. Moreover, no information about their relationships, origin, timing of speciation and mechanisms promoting their successful diversification in the Alps is available. We first examined the species status of ca. 50% of European Rhithrogena diversity using a widespread sampling scheme of Alpine species that included 22 type localities, general mixed Yule- coalescent (GMYC) model analysis of one standard mitochondrial (coxl) and one newly developed nuclear marker. We observed significant clustering of coxl into 31 GMYC species, and our results strongly suggest the presence of both cryptic diversity and taxonomic oversplitting in Rhithrogena. Phylogenetic analyses recovered four of the six recognized species groups in our samples as monophyletic. The DNA taxonomy developed here lays the groundwork for a future revision of this important but cryptic genus in Europe. Then we conducted a species-level, multiple-gene phylogenetic study of European Rhithrogena. Data from three nuclear and two mitochondrial loci were broadly congruent, and species-level relationships were well resolved within most species groups in a combined analysis. In the absence of external calibration points like fossils, we applied a standard insect molecular clock hypothesis to our mitochondrial data, suggesting an origin of Alpine Rhithrogena in the Oligocene / Miocene boundary. Our results highlighted the preponderant role that quaternary glaciations played in their diversification, promoting speciation of at least half of the current diversity in the Alps. Madagascar's biodiversity and endemism are among the most extraordinary and endangered in the world. This includes the island's freshwater biodiversity, although detailed knowledge of the diversity, endemism, and biogeographic origin of freshwater invertebrates is lacking. Many mayfly species are thought to be restricted to single river basins (microendemic species) in forested areas, making them particularly sensitive to habitat reduction and degradation. The Heptageniidae are practically unknown in Madagascar except for two described species, Afronurus matitensis and Compsoneuria josettae. Both genera have a disjunct distribution in Africa, Madagascar and Southeast Asia, and a complex taxonomic status still in flux. The standard approach to understanding their diversity, endemism, and origin would require extensive field sampling on several continents and years of taxonomic work. Here we circumvent this using museum collections and freshly collected individuals in a combined approach of DNA taxonomy and phylogeny. The cox/-based GMYC analysis revealed 14 putative species on Madagascar, 70% of which potentially microendemics. A phylogenetic analysis that included African and Asian species and data from two mitochondrial and four nuclear loci indicated the Malagasy Heptageniidae are monophyletic and sister to African Compsoneuria. The observed monophyly and high microendemism highlight their conservation importance. Our results also underline the important role that museum collections can play in molecular studies, especially in critically endangered biodiversity hotspots like Madagascar.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.