Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Sponsorship-linked marketing: The role of articulation in memory

Corporate sponsorship of events contributes significantly to marketing aims, including brand awareness as measured by recall and recognition of sponsor‐event pairings. Unfortunately, resultant advantages accrue disproportionately to brands having a natural or congruent fit with the available sponsorship properties. In three cued‐recall experiments, the effect of articulation of sponsorship fit on memory for sponsor‐event pairings is examined. While congruent sponsors have a natural memory advantage, results demonstrate that memory improvements via articulation are possible for incongruent sponsor‐event pairings. These improvements are, however, affected by the presence of competitor brands and the way in which memory is accessed.

Modelling the activation of words in human memory : the spreading activation, spooky-activation-at-a-distance and the entanglement models compared

Modelling how a word is activated in human memory is an important requirement for determining the probability of recall of a word in an extra-list cueing experiment. The spreading activation, spooky-action-at-a-distance and entanglement models have all been used to model the activation of a word. Recently a hypothesis was put forward that the mean activation levels of the respective models are as follows: Spreading � Entanglment � Spooking-action-at-a-distance This article investigates this hypothesis by means of a substantial empirical analysis of each model using the University of South Florida word association, rhyme and word norms.

Towards an automatic system for road lane marking extraction in large-scale aerial images acquired over rural areas by hierarchical image analysis and Gabor filter

An automatic approach to road lane marking extraction from high-resolution aerial images is proposed, which can automatically detect the road surfaces in rural areas based on hierarchical image analysis. The procedure is facilitated by the road centrelines obtained from low-resolution images. The lane markings are further extracted on the generated road surfaces with 2D Gabor filters. The proposed method is applied on the aerial images of the Bruce Highway around Gympie, Queensland. Evaluation of the generated road surfaces and lane markings using four representative test fields has validated the proposed method.

State convergence and the effectiveness of time-memory-data tradeoffs

Various time-memory tradeoffs attacks for stream ciphers have been proposed over the years. However, the claimed success of these attacks assumes the initialisation process of the stream cipher is one-to-one. Some stream cipher proposals do not have a one-to-one initialisation process. In this paper, we examine the impact of this on the success of time-memory-data tradeoff attacks. Under the circumstances, some attacks are more successful than previously claimed while others are less. The conditions for both cases are established.

Fabrication of macro-mesoporous zirconia-alumina materials with a 1D hierarchical structure

A series of one dimensional (1D) zirconia/alumina nanocomposites were prepared by the deposition of zirconium species onto the 3D framework of boehmite nanofibres formed by dispersing boehmite nanofibres into butanol solution. The materials were calcined at 773K and characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscope (TEM), N2 adsorption/desorption, infrared emission spectroscopy (IES). The results demonstrated that when the molar percentage X=100*Zr/(Al+Zr) was > 30 %, extremely long ZrO2/Al2O3 composite nanorods with evenly distributed ZrO2 nanocrystals on the surface were formed. The stacking of such nanorods gave rise to a new kind of macroporous material without the use of any organic space filler\template or other specific technologies. The mechanism for the formation of long ZrO2/Al2O3 composite nanorods was proposed in this work.

Hierarchical robust design optimisation of shock control bump devices for airfoil drag reduction

The paper investigates a detailed Active Shock Control Bump Design Optimisation on a Natural Laminar Flow (NLF) aerofoil; RAE 5243 to reduce cruise drag at transonic flow conditions using Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) coupled to a robust design approach. For the uncertainty design parameters, the positions of boundary layer transition (xtr) and the coefficient of lift (Cl) are considered (250 stochastic samples in total). In this paper, two robust design methods are considered; the first approach uses a standard robust design method, which evaluates one design model at 250 stochastic conditions for uncertainty. The second approach is the combination of a standard robust design method and the concept of hierarchical (multi-population) sampling (250, 50, 15) for uncertainty. Numerical results show that the evolutionary optimization method coupled to uncertainty design techniques produces useful and reliable Pareto optimal SCB shapes which have low sensitivity and high aerodynamic performance while having significant total drag reduction. In addition,it also shows the benefit of using hierarchical robust method for detailed uncertainty design optimization.

A quantum information retrieval approach to memory

As computers approach the physical limits of information storable in memory, new methods will be needed to further improve information storage and retrieval. We propose a quantum inspired vector based approach, which offers a contextually dependent mapping from the subsymbolic to the symbolic representations of information. If implemented computationally, this approach would provide exceptionally high density of information storage, without the traditionally required physical increase in storage capacity. The approach is inspired by the structure of human memory and incorporates elements of Gardenfors’ Conceptual Space approach and Humphreys et al.’s matrix model of memory.

Documentary as history, memory, dream and film

A century ago, as the Western world embarked on a period of traumatic change, the visual realism of photography and documentary film brought print and radio news to life. The vision that these new mediums threw into stark relief was one of intense social and political upheaval: the birth of modernity fired and tempered in the crucible of the Great War. As millions died in this fiery chamber and the influenza pandemic that followed, lines of empires staggered to their fall, and new geo-political boundaries were scored in the raw, red flesh of Europe. The decade of 1910 to 1919 also heralded a prolific period of artistic experimentation. It marked the beginning of the social and artistic age of modernity and, with it, the nascent beginnings of a new art form: film. We still live in the shadow of this violent, traumatic and fertile age; haunted by the ghosts of Flanders and Gallipoli and its ripples of innovation and creativity. Something happened here, but to understand how and why is not easy; for the documentary images we carry with us in our collective cultural memory have become what Baudrillard refers to as simulacra. Detached from their referents, they have become referents themselves, to underscore other, grand narratives in television and Hollywood films. The personal histories of the individuals they represent so graphically–and their hope, love and loss–are folded into a national story that serves, like war memorials and national holidays, to buttress social myths and values. And, as filmic images cross-pollinate, with each iteration offering a new catharsis, events that must have been terrifying or wondrous are abstracted. In this paper we first discuss this transformation through reference to theories of documentary and memory–this will form a conceptual framework for a subsequent discussion of the short film Anmer. Produced by the first author in 2010, Anmer is a visual essay on documentary, simulacra and the symbolic narratives of history. Its form, structure and aesthetic speak of the confluence of documentary, history, memory and dream. Located in the first decade of the twentieth century, its non-linear narratives of personal tragedy and poetic dreamscapes are an evocative reminder of the distance between intimate experience, grand narratives, and the mythologies of popular films. This transformation of documentary sources not only played out in the processes of the film’s production, but also came to form its theme.

Hierarchical modeling of perceived collision risks in port fairways

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Despite the extent of recent works done on port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in port fairways. This paper uses a hierarchical ordered probit model to investigate associations between perceived risks and the geometric and traffic characteristics of fairways and the pilot attributes. Perceived risk data, collected through a risk perception survey conducted among the Singapore port pilots, are used to calibrate the model. Intra-class correlation coefficient justifies use of the hierarchical model in comparison with an ordinary model. Results show higher perceived risks in fairways attached to anchorages, and in those featuring sharper bends and higher traffic operating speeds. Lesser risks are perceived in fairways attached to shoreline and confined waters, and in those with one-way traffic, traffic separation scheme, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Risk is also found to be perceived higher in night.

A hierarchical evolutionary algorithmic design (HEAD) system for generating and evolving building design models

This thesis develops a detailed conceptual design method and a system software architecture defined with a parametric and generative evolutionary design system to support an integrated interdisciplinary building design approach. The research recognises the need to shift design efforts toward the earliest phases of the design process to support crucial design decisions that have a substantial cost implication on the overall project budget. The overall motivation of the research is to improve the quality of designs produced at the author's employer, the General Directorate of Major Works (GDMW) of the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces. GDMW produces many buildings that have standard requirements, across a wide range of environmental and social circumstances. A rapid means of customising designs for local circumstances would have significant benefits. The research considers the use of evolutionary genetic algorithms in the design process and the ability to generate and assess a wider range of potential design solutions than a human could manage. This wider ranging assessment, during the early stages of the design process, means that the generated solutions will be more appropriate for the defined design problem. The research work proposes a design method and system that promotes a collaborative relationship between human creativity and the computer capability. The tectonic design approach is adopted as a process oriented design that values the process of design as much as the product. The aim is to connect the evolutionary systems to performance assessment applications, which are used as prioritised fitness functions. This will produce design solutions that respond to their environmental and function requirements. This integrated, interdisciplinary approach to design will produce solutions through a design process that considers and balances the requirements of all aspects of the design. Since this thesis covers a wide area of research material, 'methodological pluralism' approach was used, incorporating both prescriptive and descriptive research methods. Multiple models of research were combined and the overall research was undertaken following three main stages, conceptualisation, developmental and evaluation. The first two stages lay the foundations for the specification of the proposed system where key aspects of the system that have not previously been proven in the literature, were implemented to test the feasibility of the system. As a result of combining the existing knowledge in the area with the newlyverified key aspects of the proposed system, this research can form the base for a future software development project. The evaluation stage, which includes building the prototype system to test and evaluate the system performance based on the criteria defined in the earlier stage, is not within the scope this thesis. The research results in a conceptual design method and a proposed system software architecture. The proposed system is called the 'Hierarchical Evolutionary Algorithmic Design (HEAD) System'. The HEAD system has shown to be feasible through the initial illustrative paper-based simulation. The HEAD system consists of the two main components - 'Design Schema' and the 'Synthesis Algorithms'. The HEAD system reflects the major research contribution in the way it is conceptualised, while secondary contributions are achieved within the system components. The design schema provides constraints on the generation of designs, thus enabling the designer to create a wide range of potential designs that can then be analysed for desirable characteristics. The design schema supports the digital representation of the human creativity of designers into a dynamic design framework that can be encoded and then executed through the use of evolutionary genetic algorithms. The design schema incorporates 2D and 3D geometry and graph theory for space layout planning and building formation using the Lowest Common Design Denominator (LCDD) of a parameterised 2D module and a 3D structural module. This provides a bridge between the standard adjacency requirements and the evolutionary system. The use of graphs as an input to the evolutionary algorithm supports the introduction of constraints in a way that is not supported by standard evolutionary techniques. The process of design synthesis is guided as a higher level description of the building that supports geometrical constraints. The Synthesis Algorithms component analyses designs at four levels, 'Room', 'Layout', 'Building' and 'Optimisation'. At each level multiple fitness functions are embedded into the genetic algorithm to target the specific requirements of the relevant decomposed part of the design problem. Decomposing the design problem to allow for the design requirements of each level to be dealt with separately and then reassembling them in a bottom up approach reduces the generation of non-viable solutions through constraining the options available at the next higher level. The iterative approach, in exploring the range of design solutions through modification of the design schema as the understanding of the design problem improves, assists in identifying conflicts in the design requirements. Additionally, the hierarchical set-up allows the embedding of multiple fitness functions into the genetic algorithm, each relevant to a specific level. This supports an integrated multi-level, multi-disciplinary approach. The HEAD system promotes a collaborative relationship between human creativity and the computer capability. The design schema component, as the input to the procedural algorithms, enables the encoding of certain aspects of the designer's subjective creativity. By focusing on finding solutions for the relevant sub-problems at the appropriate levels of detail, the hierarchical nature of the system assist in the design decision-making process.

Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.