Does Reasoning Enhance Learning?

Utilizing the well-known Ultimatum Game, this note presents the following phenomenon. If we start with simple stimulus-response agents, learning through naive reinforcement, and then grant them some introspective capabilities, we get outcomes that are not closer but farther away from the fully introspective game-theoretic approach. The cause of this is the following: there is an asymmetry in the information that agents can deduce from their experience, and this leads to a bias in their learning process.

Do market conditions affect preferences? Evidence from experimental markets with excess supply and excess demand

We study whether people's preferences in an unbalanced market are affected by whether they are on the excess supply side or the excess demand side of the market. Our analysis is based on the comparison of behavior between two types of experimental gift exchange markets, which vary only with respect to whether first or second movers are on the long side of the market. The direction of market imbalance could influence subjects' motivation, as second movers, workers, might react differently to favorable actions by first movers, firms, in the two cases. Our data show strong deviations from the standard game-theoretic prediction. However, we only find secondary treatment effects. First movers are not more generous when they are in excess supply and second movers do not respond less favorably when they are in excess demand. Competition has only minor psychological effects in our data.

Does eeasoning enhance learning?

Utilizing the well-known Ultimatum Game, this note presents the following phenomenon. If we start with simple stimulus-response agents,learning through naive reinforcement, and then grant them some introspective capabilities, we get outcomes that are not closer but farther away from the fully introspective game-theoretic approach. The cause of this is the following: there is an asymmetry in the information that agents can deduce from their experience, and this leads to a bias in their learning process.

On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Many experiments have shown that human subjects do not necessarily behave in line with game theoretic assumptions and solution concepts. The reasons for this non-conformity are multiple. In this paper we study the argument whether a deviation from game theory is because subjects are rational, but doubt that others are rational as well, compared to the argument that subjects, in general, are boundedly rational themselves. To distinguish these two hypotheses, we study behavior in repeated 2-person and many-person Beauty-Contest-Games which are strategically different from one another. We analyze four different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the other player s choice and adaptation rather than self-initiated rational reasoning.

Effects of hatching asynchrony on sibling negotiation, begging, jostling for position and within-brood food allocation in the barn owl Tyto alba

When siblings differ markedly in their need for food, they may benefit from signalling to each other their willingness to contest the next indivisible food item delivered by the parents. This sib-sib communication system, referred to as 'sibling negotiation', may allow them to adjust optimally to investment in begging. Using barn owl (Two alba) broods. I assessed the role of within-brood age hierarchy on sibling negotiation, and in turn on jostling for position where parents predictably deliver food (i.e. nest-box entrance), begging and within-brood food allocation. More specifically, I examined three predictions derived from a game-theoretical model of sibling negotiation where a senior and a junior sibling compete for food resources (Roulin, 2002a, Johnstone and Roulin, 2003): (1) begging effort invested by the senior sibling should be less sensitive to the junior sibling's negotiation than vice versa; (2) the junior should invest less effort in sibling negotiation than its senior sibling but a similar amount of effort in begging; and (3) within-brood food allocation should be directly related to begging but only indirectly to sibling negotiation. Two-chick broods were created and vocalization in the absence (negotiation signals directed to siblings) and presence (begging signals directed to parents) of parents was recorded. In support of the first prediction, juniors begged at a low cadence after their senior sibling negotiated intensely, probably because negotiation reflects prospective investment in begging and hence willingness to compete. In contrast, the begging of senior siblings was not sensitive to their junior sibling's negotiation. In contrast to the second prediction, juniors negotiated and begged more intensely than their senior sibling apparently because they were hungrier rather than younger. In line with the third prediction, juniors monopolized food delivered by their parents when their senior sibling begged at a low level. The begging cadence of both the junior and senior sibling, the junior's negotiation cadence, the difference in age between the two nest-mates and jostling for position were not associated with the likelihood of monopolizing food. In conclusion, sibling negotiation appears to influence begging behaviour, which, in turn, affects within-brood food allocation. Juniors may negotiate to challenge their senior siblings, and thereby determine whether seniors are less hungry before deciding to beg for food. In contrast, seniors may negotiate to deter juniors from begging.

Spin-Peierls vs Peierls distortions in a family of conjugated polymers

Distortions in a family of conjugated polymers are studied using two complementary approaches: within a many-body valence bond approach using a transfer-matrix technique to treat the Heisenberg model of the systems, and also in terms of the tight-binding band-theoretic model with interactions limited to nearest neighbors. The computations indicate that both methods predict the presence or absence of the same distortions in most of the polymers studied.

Natural selection on fecundity variance in subdivided populations: kin selection meets bet hedging.

In a series of seminal articles in 1974, 1975, and 1977, J. H. Gillespie challenged the notion that the "fittest" individuals are those that produce on average the highest number of offspring. He showed that in small populations, the variance in fecundity can determine fitness as much as mean fecundity. One likely reason why Gillespie's concept of within-generation bet hedging has been largely ignored is the general consensus that natural populations are of large size. As a consequence, essentially no work has investigated the role of the fecundity variance on the evolutionary stable state of life-history strategies. While typically large, natural populations also tend to be subdivided in local demes connected by migration. Here, we integrate Gillespie's measure of selection for within-generation bet hedging into the inclusive fitness and game theoretic measure of selection for structured populations. The resulting framework demonstrates that selection against high variance in offspring number is a potent force in large, but structured populations. More generally, the results highlight that variance in offspring number will directly affect various life-history strategies, especially those involving kin interaction. The selective pressures on three key traits are directly investigated here, namely within-generation bet hedging, helping behaviors, and the evolutionary stable dispersal rate. The evolutionary dynamics of all three traits are markedly affected by variance in offspring number, although to a different extent and under different demographic conditions.

Elinkaarimallin kokonaistaloudellisuus julkisten tilapalveluiden järjestämisessä

Kuntasektorin toimintaympäristön muutostenseurauksena kunnat ovat joutuneet etsimään uusia tapoja järjestää palveluita. Yksi uusista tilapalveluiden toteutusvaihtoehdoista on elinkaarimalli, jossa yksityinen sektori vastaa vähintään hankkeen suunnittelusta, rakentamisesta sekä kiinteistöpalveluista. Julkisen sektorin hankintoja säätelee hankintalaki, joka velvoittaa hyväksymään tarjouksista sen, joka on kokonaistaloudellisesti edullisin tai hinnaltaan halvin. Kaupungin näkökulmasta kokonaistaloudellisuuteen vaikuttavat tarjoushinnan lisäksi myös hankintamallien laadullisista eroista, riskien siirrosta sekä yksityisen ja julkisen sektorin välisistä kilpailueroista aiheutuvat taloudelliset vaikutukset. Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli rakentaa toteutusmallien vertailuun laskentamalli, jossa huomioidaan elinkaarikustannusten lisäksi muut kokonaistaloudellisuuteen vaikuttavat elementit. Aiheesta julkaistuin kirjallisuuden perusteella rakennettua teoreettista laskentamallia sovelletaan Espoossa sijaitsevaan elinkaarimallilla toteutettuun tilapalveluhankkeeseen, Kaivomestariin. Vertailua varten rakennettavalla vaihtoehtoisella toteutusmallilla, verrokkilla, kuvataan Kaivomestarin kokonaisuutta vastaavan Espoon kaupungin tavanomaisen tuotannon kustannuksia. Työn tutkimustulosten perusteella elinkaarimalli näyttää hieman tavanomaista tuotantoa kalliimmalta vaihtoehdolta järjestää tilapalveluita julkiselle sektorille. Toisaalta molemmilla toteutusmalleilla saavutetaan useita sellaisia tekijöitä, joiden taloudellisia vaikutuksia ei ole huomioitu vertailussa. Yleisesti voidaankin todeta toteutusmallien vertailun olevan erittäin vaikeaa ja haastavaa, eikä tulosten perusteella toteutusmalleja voida täysin yksiselitteisesti ja luotettavasti asettaa kokonaistaloudelliseen edullisuusjärjestykseen.

Exploring business models for medical games: Key components and challenges

The costs of health care are going up in many countries. In order to provide affordable and effective health care solutions, new technologies and approaches are constantly being developed. In this research, video games are presented as a possible solution to the problem. Video games are fun, and nowadays most people like to spend time on them. In addition, recent studies have pointed out that video games can have notable health benefits. Health games have already been developed, used in practice, and researched. However, the bulk of health game studies have been concerned with the design or the effectiveness of the games; no actual business studies have been conducted on the subject, even though health games often lack commercial success despite their health benefits. This thesis seeks to fill this gap. The specific aim of this thesis is to develop a conceptual business model framework and empirically use it in explorative medical game business model research. In the first stage of this research, a literature review was conducted and the existing literature analyzed and synthesized into a conceptual business model framework consisting of six dimensions. The motivation behind the synthesis is the ongoing ambiguity around the business model concept. In the second stage, 22 semi-structured interviews were conducted with different professionals within the value network for medical games. The business model framework was present in all stages of the empirical research: First, in the data collection stage, the framework acted as a guiding instrument, focusing the interview process. Then, the interviews were coded and analyzed using the framework as a structure. The results were then reported following the structure of the framework. In the results, the interviewees highlighted several important considerations and issues for medical games concerning the six dimensions of the business model framework. Based on the key findings of this research, several key components of business models for medical games were identified and illustrated in a single figure. Furthermore, five notable challenges for business models for medical games were presented, and possible solutions for the challenges were postulated. Theoretically, these findings provide pioneering information on the untouched subject of business models for medical games. Moreover, the conceptual business model framework and its use in the novel context of medical games provide a contribution to the business model literature. Regarding practice, this thesis further accentuates that medical games can offer notable benefits to several stakeholder groups and offers advice to companies seeking to commercialize these games.

From transcendental to practical intersubjectivity: a social psychological approach to Kant's musical aesthetics

It is well known that Kant’s aesthetics is framed intersubjectively because he upholds the claim of taste to universality. However, the transcendental foundation of this shared universality is a supersensible ground which is taken for granted but which cannot be brought directly into communicative experience. Kant’s reliance on the synthetic a priori structure of aesthetic judgment also removes it from the sphere of observable personal interaction. This argumentative strategy exposes it to skeptical challenge and generates inaccessible references to inner representations (be they intuitions, categories of the understanding or rational ideas). It is not sufficient, as Kant did, to propose a description of aesthetic experience that is subjectively plausible and thereby claim its intersubjective validity. It is indispensable to embody intersubjectivity in behavior and language. In practical intersubjectivity, aesthetic attitudes are dealt with in a concrete and accessible manner without relying on mentalistic assumptions as a foundation. Conceptual terms such as 'agreeable’, 'beauty’, 'sublime’, 'ugly’, 'universality’ acquire new meaning in a conversational context and aesthetic claims are tested in a dialogical game semantics model.

Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences

This paper develops and estimates a game-theoretical model of inflation targeting where the central banker's preferences are asymmetric around the targeted rate. In particular, positive deviations from the target can be weighted more, or less, severely than negative ones in the central banker's loss function. It is shown that some of the previous results derived under the assumption of symmetry are not robust to the generalization of preferences. Estimates of the central banker's preference parameters for Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom are statistically different from the ones implied by the commonly used quadratic loss function. Econometric results are robust to different forecasting models for the rate of unemployment but not to the use of measures of inflation broader than the one targeted.

Agreements with overlapping coalitions

Dans certaines circonstances, des actions de groupes sont plus performantes que des actions individuelles. Dans ces situations, il est préférable de former des coalitions. Ces coalitions peuvent être disjointes ou imbriquées. La littérature économique met un fort accent sur la modélisation des accords où les coalitions d’agents économiques sont des ensembles disjoints. Cependant on observe dans la vie de tous les jours que les coalitions politiques, environnementales, de libre-échange et d’assurance informelles sont la plupart du temps imbriquées. Aussi, devient-il impératif de comprendre le fonctionnement économique des coalitions imbriquées. Ma thèse développe un cadre d’analyse qui permet de comprendre la formation et la performance des coalitions même si elles sont imbriquées. Dans le premier chapitre je développe un jeu de négociation qui permet la formation de coalitions imbriquées. Je montre que ce jeu admet un équilibre et je développe un algorithme pour calculer les allocations d’équilibre pour les jeux symétriques. Je montre que toute structure de réseau peut se décomposer de manière unique en une structure de coalitions imbriquées. Sous certaines conditions, je montre que cette structure correspond à une structure d’équilibre d’un jeu sous-jacent. Dans le deuxième chapitre j’introduis une nouvelle notion de noyau dans le cas où les coalitions imbriquées sont permises. Je montre que cette notion de noyau est une généralisation naturelle de la notion de noyau de structure de coalitions. Je vais plus loin en introduisant des agents plus raffinés. J’obtiens alors le noyau de structure de coalitions imbriquées que je montre être un affinement de la première notion. Dans la suite de la thèse, j’applique les théories développées dans les deux premiers chapitres à des cas concrets. Le troisième chapitre est une application de la relation biunivoque établie dans le premier chapitre entre la formation des coalitions et la formation de réseaux. Je propose une modélisation réaliste et effective des assurances informelles. J’introduis ainsi dans la littérature économique sur les assurances informelles, quatre innovations majeures : une fusion entre l’approche par les groupes et l’approche par les réseaux sociaux, la possibilité d’avoir des organisations imbriquées d’assurance informelle, un schéma de punition endogène et enfin les externalités. Je caractérise les accords d’assurances informelles stables et j’isole les conditions qui poussent les agents à dévier. Il est admis dans la littérature que seuls les individus ayant un revenu élevé peuvent se permettre de violer les accords d’assurances informelles. Je donne ici les conditions dans lesquelles cette hypothèse tient. Cependant, je montre aussi qu’il est possible de violer cette hypothèse sous d’autres conditions réalistes. Finalement je dérive des résultats de statiques comparées sous deux normes de partage différents. Dans le quatrième et dernier chapitre, je propose un modèle d’assurance informelle où les groupes homogènes sont construits sur la base de relations de confiance préexistantes. Ces groupes sont imbriqués et représentent des ensembles de partage de risque. Cette approche est plus générale que les approches traditionnelles de groupe ou de réseau. Je caractérise les accords stables sans faire d’hypothèses sur le taux d’escompte. J’identifie les caractéristiques des réseaux stables qui correspondent aux taux d’escomptes les plus faibles. Bien que l’objectif des assurances informelles soit de lisser la consommation, je montre que des effets externes liés notamment à la valorisation des liens interpersonnels renforcent la stabilité. Je développe un algorithme à pas finis qui égalise la consommation pour tous les individus liés. Le fait que le nombre de pas soit fini (contrairement aux algorithmes à pas infinis existants) fait que mon algorithme peut inspirer de manière réaliste des politiques économiques. Enfin, je donne des résultats de statique comparée pour certaines valeurs exogènes du modèle.

Spin-Peierls vs Peierls distortions in a family of conjugated polymers

Distortions in a family of conjugated polymers are studied using two complementary approaches: within a many-body valence bond approach using a transfer-matrix technique to treat the Heisenberg model of the systems, and also in terms of the tight-binding band-theoretic model with interactions limited to nearest neighbors. The computations indicate that both methods predict the presence or absence of the same distortions in most of the polymers studied.

Derivation of an Efficient Rule System Pattern Matcher

Formalizing algorithm derivations is a necessary prerequisite for developing automated algorithm design systems. This report describes a derivation of an algorithm for incrementally matching conjunctive patterns against a growing database. This algorithm, which is modeled on the Rete matcher used in the OPS5 production system, forms a basis for efficiently implementing a rule system. The highlights of this derivation are: (1) a formal specification for the rule system matching problem, (2) derivation of an algorithm for this task using a lattice-theoretic model of conjunctive and disjunctive variable substitutions, and (3) optimization of this algorithm, using finite differencing, for incrementally processing new data.