Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Brain injury prediction using the translational energy criterion: an experimental study. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Contribution of the collagen I alpha 1 and vitamin D receptor genes to the risk of hip fracture in elderly women

Context and Objective: Hip fracture is partially genetically determined. The present study was designed to examine the contributions of vitamin D receptor (VDR) and collagen I alpha 1 (COLIA1) genotypes to the liability to hip fracture in postmenopausal women. Design: The study was designed as a prospective population-based cohort investigation. Subjects: Six hundred seventy-seven postmenopausal women of Caucasian background, aged 70 +/- 7 yr (mean +/- SD), have been followed for up to 14 yr. Sixty-nine women had sustained a hip fracture during the period. Main Outcome: Atraumatic hip fractures were prospectively identified through radiologists' reports. Bone mineral density (BMD) at the hip and lumbar spine was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Genotypes: The TaqI and SpI COLIA1 polymorphisms of the VDR and COLIA1 genes were determined. Using the Single Nucleotide Polymorphism database, VDR TT, Tt, and tt genotypes were coded as TT, TC, and CC, whereas COLIA1 SS, Ss, and ss were coded as GG, GT, and TT. Results: Women with VDR CC genotype (16% prevalence) and COLIA1 TT genotype (5% prevalence) had an increased risk of hip fracture [odds ratio (OR) associated with CC, 2.6; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-5.3; OR associated with TT, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.3-10.8] after adjustment for femoral neck BMD (OR, 3.4 per SD; 95% CI, 2.3-5.0) and age (OR, 1.4 per 5 yr; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7). Approximately 20 and 12% of the liability to hip fracture was attributable to the presence of the CC genotype and TT genotype, respectively. Conclusion: The VDR CC genotype and COLIA1 TT genotype were associated with increased hip fracture risk in Caucasian women, and this association was independent of BMD and age.

Evaluation of the indirect measures of rock brittleness and fracture toughness in rock cutting

Performance prediction models for partial face mechanical excavators, when developed in laboratory conditions, depend on relating the results of a set of rock property tests and indices to specific cutting energy (SE) for various rock types. There exist some studies in the literature aiming to correlate the geotechnical properties of intact rocks with the SE, especially for massive and widely jointed rock environments. However, those including direct and/or indirect measures of rock fracture parameters such as rock brittleness and fracture toughness, along with the other rock parameters expressing different aspects of rock behavior under drag tools (picks), are rather limited. With this study, it was aimed to investigate the relationships between the indirect measures of rock brittleness and fracture toughness and the SE depending on the results of a new and two previous linear rock cutting programmes. Relationships between the SE, rock strength parameters, and the rock index tests have also been investigated in this study. Sandstone samples taken from the different fields around Ankara, Turkey were used in the new testing programme. Detailed mineralogical analyses, petrographic studies, and rock mechanics and rock cutting tests were performed on these selected sandstone specimens. The assessment of rock cuttability was based on the SE. Three different brittleness indices (B1, B2, and B4) were calculated for sandstones samples, whereas a toughness index (T-i), being developed by Atkinson et al.(1), was employed to represent the indirect rock fracture toughness. The relationships between the SE and the large amounts of new data obtained from the mineralogical analyses, petrographic studies, rock mechanics, and linear rock cutting tests were evaluated by using bivariate correlation and curve fitting techniques, variance analysis, and Student's t-test. Rock cutting and rock property testing data that came from well-known studies of McFeat-Smith and Fowell(2) and Roxborough and Philips(3) have also been employed in statistical analyses together with the new data. Laboratory tests and subsequent analyses revealed that there were close correlations between the SE and B4 whereas no statistically significant correlation has been found between the SE and T-i. Uniaxial compressive and Brazilian tensile strengths and Shore scleroscope hardness of sandstones also exhibited strong relationships with the SE. NCB cone indenter test had the greatest influence on the SE among the other engineering properties of rocks, confirming the previous studies in rock cutting and mechanical excavation. Therefore, it was recommended to employ easy-to-use index tests of NCB cone indenter and Shore scleroscope in the estimation of laboratory SE of sandstones ranging from very low to high strengths in the absence of a rock cutting rig to measure it until the easy-to-use universal measures of the rock brittleness and especially the rock fracture toughness, being an intrinsic rock property, are developed.

Mechanistic modeling of fracture in asphalt mixtures under compressive loading

When an asphalt mixture is subjected to a destructive compressive load, it experiences a sequence of three deformation stages, as follows: the (1) primary, (2) secondary, and (3) tertiary stages. Most literature research focuses on plastic deformation in the primary and secondary stages, such as prediction of the flow number, which is in fact the initiation of the tertiary stage. However, little research effort has been reported on the mechanistic modeling of the damage that occurs in the tertiary stage. The main objective of this paper is to provide a mechanistic characterizing method for the damage modeling of asphalt mixtures in the tertiary stage. The preliminary study conducted by the writers illustrates that deformation during the tertiary flow of the asphalt mixtures is principally caused by the formation and propagation of cracks, which was signaled by the increase of the phase angle in the tertiary phase. The strain caused by the growth of cracks is the viscofracture strain, which can be obtained by conducting the strain decomposition of the measured total strain in the destructive compressive test. The viscofracture strain is employed in the research reported in this paper to mechanistically characterize the time-dependent fracture (viscofracture) of asphalt mixtures in compression. By using the dissipated pseudostrain energy-balance principle, the damage density and true stress are determined and both are demonstrated to increase with load cycles in the tertiary stage. The increased true stress yields extra viscoplastic strain, which is the reason why the permanent deformation is accelerated by the occurrence of cracks. To characterize the evolution of the viscofracture in the asphalt mixtures in compression, a pseudo J-integral Paris' law in terms of damage density is proposed and the material constants in the Paris' law are determined, which can be employed to predict the fracture of asphalt mixtures in compression. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

An energy based force prediction method for UD-CFRP orthogonal machining

The machining of carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite presents a significant challenge to the industry, and a better understanding of machining mechanism is the essential fundament to enhance the machining quality. In this study, a new energy based analytical method was developed to predict the cutting forces in orthogonal machining of unidirectional CFRP with fiber orientations ranging from 0° to 75°. The subsurface damage in cutting was also considered. Thus, the total specific energy for cutting has been estimated along with the energy consumed for forming new surfaces, friction, fracture in chip formation and subsurface debonding. Experiments were conducted to verify the validity of the proposed model.

Stress based prediction of formability and failure in incremental sheet forming

A strain-based forming limit criterion is widely used in sheet-metal forming industry to predict necking. However, this criterion is usually valid when the strain path is linear throughout the deformation process [1]. Strain path in incremental sheet forming is often found to be severely nonlinear throughout the deformation history. Therefore, the practice of using a strain-based forming limit criterion often leads to erroneous assessments of formability and failure prediction. On the other hands, stress-based forming limit is insensitive against any changes in the strain path and hence it is first used to model the necking limit in incremental sheet forming. The stress-based forming limit is also combined with the fracture limit based on maximum shear stress criterion to show necking and fracture together. A derivation for a general mapping method from strain-based FLC to stress-based FLC using a non-quadratic yield function has been made. Simulation model is evaluated for a single point incremental forming using AA 6022-T43, and checked the accuracy against experiments. By using the path-independent necking and fracture limits, it is able to explain the deformation mechanism successfully in incremental sheet forming. The proposed model has given a good scientific basis for the development of ISF under nonlinear strain path and its usability over conventional sheet forming process as well.

Prediction of mode I delamination resistance of z-pinned laminates using the embedded finite element technique

A new finite modelling approach is presented to analyse the mode I delamination fracture toughness of z-pinned laminates using the computationally efficient embedded element technique. In the FE model,each z-pin is represented by a single one-dimensional truss element that is embedded within the laminate. Each truss is given the material, geometric and spatial properties associated with the global crackbridging traction response of a z-pin in the laminate; this simplification provides a computationally efficient and flexible model where pin elements are independent of the underlying structural mesh for thelaminate. The accuracy of the FE modelling approach is assessed using mode I interlaminar fracture toughness data for a carbon-epoxy laminate reinforced with z-pins made of copper, titanium or stainless steel. The model is able to predict with good accuracy the crack growth resistance curves and fracture toughness properties for the different types of z-pinned laminate.

Prediction of failure in bending of an aluminium sheet alloy

This work is dedicated to numerical prediction of the bending of thin aluminium alloy sheets, with a focus on the material parameter identification and the prediction of rupture with or without pre-strains in tension prior to bending. The experimental database consists of i) mechanical tests at room temperature, such as tension and simple shear, performed at several orientations to the rolling direction and biaxial tension ii) air bending tests of rectangular samples after (or not) pre-straining in tension. The mechanical model is composed of the Yld2004-18p anisotropic yield criterion (Barlat et al. [3]) associated with a mixed hardening rule. The material parameters (altogether 21) are optimized with an inverse approach, in order to minimize the gap between experimental data and model predictions. Then, the Hosford-Coulomb rupture criterion is used in an uncoupled way, and the parameters are determined from tensile tests, both uniaxial and biaxial, with data up to rupture. In a second step, numerical simulations of the bending tests are performed, either on material in its original state or after pre-straining in tension, with pre-strain magnitudes increasing from 0.19 up to 0.3. The comparisons are performed on different outputs: load evolution, strain field and prediction of the rupture. A very good correlation is obtained over all the tests, in the identification step as well as in the validation one. Moreover, the fracture criterion proves to be successful whatever the amount of pre-strain may be. A convincing representation of the mechanical behavior at room temperature for an aluminium alloy is thus obtained.