Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature during boreal winter: Madden-Julian Oscillation versus submonthly forcing and processes

[ 1] Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter is investigated by analyzing available data and a suite of solutions to an ocean general circulation model for 1998 - 2004. This period covers the QuikSCAT and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Impacts of the 30 - 90 day and 10 - 30 day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are examined separately, with the former dominated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the latter dominated by convectively coupled Rossby and Kelvin waves. The maximum variation of intraseasonal SST occurs at 10 degrees S - 2 degrees S in the wintertime Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the mixed layer is thin and intraseasonal wind speed reaches its maximum. The observed maximum warming ( cooling) averaged over ( 60 degrees E - 85 degrees E, 10 degrees S - 3 degrees S) is 1.13 degrees C ( - 0.97 degrees C) for the period of interest, with a standard deviation of 0.39 degrees C in winter. This SST change is forced predominantly by the MJO. While the MJO causes a basin-wide cooling ( warming) in the ITCZ region, submonthly ISOs cause a more complex SST structure that propagates southwestward in the western-central basin and southeastward in the eastern ocean. On both the MJO and submonthly timescales, winds are the deterministic factor for the SST variability. Short-wave radiation generally plays a secondary role, and effects of precipitation are negligible. The dominant role of winds results roughly equally from wind speed and stress forcing. Wind speed affects SST by altering turbulent heat fluxes and entrainment cooling. Wind stress affects SST via several local and remote oceanic processes.

Interregional Biological Responses in the North Atlantic to Hydrometeorological Forcing

Using data from the CPR survey seven case studies are described that document different spatial and temporal responses in the plankton to hydroclimatic events. Long-term trends in the plankton of the eastern Atlantic and the North Sea over the last five decades are examined. Two of the examples revisit correlations that have been described between copepod abundance in the eastern Atlantic and North Sea and indices of atmospheric variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Gulf Stream North Wall index. Evidence for an increase in levels of Phytoplankton Colour (a visual index of chlorophyll) on the eastern and western sides of the Atlantic is presented. Changes in three trophic levels and in the hydrodynamics and chemistry of the North Sea circa 1988 are outlined as a regime shift. Two of the case studies emphasise the importance of variability in oceanic advection into shelf seas and the role of western and eastern margin currents at the shelf edge. The plankton appear to be integrating hydrometeorological signals and reflecting basin scale changes in circulation of surface, intermediate and deep waters in part associated with the NAO. The extent to which climatic variability may be contributing to the observed changes in the plankton is discussed with a forecast of potential future ecosystem effects in a climate change scenario.

Recent Arctic Climate Change and Its Remote Forcing of Northwest Atlantic Shelf Ecosystems

During recent decades, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. Additionally, shifts in the Arctic's atmospheric pressure field have altered surface winds, ocean circulation, and freshwater storage in the Beaufort Gyre. These processes have resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean, including the emergence of great salinity anomalies propagating throughout the North Atlantic. Here, we link these variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean to the regime shifts observed in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems. Specifically, we hypothesize that the corresponding salinity anomalies, both negative and positive, alter the timing and extent of water-column stratification, thereby impacting the production and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher-trophic-level consumers. Should this hypothesis hold up to critical evaluation, it has the potential to fundamentally alter our current understanding of the processes forcing the dynamics of Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems.

Coastal upwelling and downwelling forcing of circulation in a semi-enclosed bay: Ria de Vigo

Semi-enclosed bays in upwelling regions are exposed to forcing related to winds, currents and buoyancy over the shelf. The influence of this external forcing is moderated by factors such as connectivity to the open ocean, shelter by surrounding topography, dimensions of the bay, and freshwater outflows. Such bays, preferred locations for ports, mariculture, marine industry, recreational activities and coastal settlement, present a range of characteristics, understanding of which is necessary to their rational management. Observations in such a semi-enclosed bay, the Ria de Vigo in Spain, are used to characterize the influence of upwelling and downwelling pulses on its circulation. In this location, near the northern limit of the Iberian upwelling system, upwelling events dominate during a short summer season and downwelling events the rest of the year. The ria response to the external forcing is central to nutrient supply and resultant plankton productivity that supports its high level of cultured mussel production. Intensive field studies in September 2006 and June 2007 captured a downwelling event and an upwelling event, respectively. Data from eight current profiler moorings and boat-based MiniBat/ADCP surveys provided an unprecedented quasi-synoptic view of the distribution of water masses and circulation patterns in any ria. In the outer ria, circulation was dominated by the introduction of wind-driven alongshore flow from the external continental shelf through the ria entrances and its interaction with the topography. In the middle ria, circulation was primarily related to the upwelling/downwelling cycle, with a cool, salty and dense lower layer penetrating to the inner ria during upwelling over the shelf. A warmer, lower salinity and less dense surface layer of coastal waters flowed inward during downwelling. Without external forcing, the inner ria responded primarily to tides and buoyancy changes related to land runoff. Under both upwelling and downwelling conditions, the flushing of the ria involved shelf responses to wind pulses. Their persistence for a few days was sufficient to allow waters from the continental shelf to penetrate the innermost ria. Longer term observations supported by numerical modeling are required to confirm the generality of such flushing events in the ria and determine their typical frequency, while comparative studies should explore how these scenarios fit into the range of conditions experienced in other semi-enclosed bays.

Tephra-linked peat humification records from Irish ombrotrophic bogs question nature of solar forcing at 850 cal. yr BC.

This paper investigates evidence for palaeoclimatic changes during the period ca. 1500-500 cal. yr BC through peat humification studies on seven Irish ombrotrophic bogs. The sites are well-correlated by the identification of three mid-first millennium BC tephras, which enable the humification records at specific points in time to be directly compared. Phases of temporarily increased wetness are suggested at ca. 1300-1250 cal. yr BC, ca. 1150-1050 cal. yr BC, ca. 940 cal. yr BC and ca. 740 cal. yr BC. The last of these is confirmed to be synchronous at five sites, suggesting external forcing on a regional scale. The timing of this wet-shift is constrained by two closely dated tephras and is demonstrated to be distinct from the widely reported changes to cooler/wetter conditions associated with a solar minimum at 850-760 cal. yr BC, at which time the Irish sites appear instead to experience drier conditions. The results suggest the possibility of either non-uniform responses to solar forcing in northwest Europe at this time, or the existence of unrelated climate events in the early first millennium BC. The findings caution against the correlation of loosely dated palaeoclimate data if the effects of forcing mechanisms are to be understood.

Testing solar forcing of pervasive Holocene climate cycles

The temporal and spatial extent of Holocene climate change is an area of considerable uncertainty, with solar forcing recently proposed to be the origin of cycles identified in the North Atlantic region. To address these issues we have developed an annually resolved record of changes in Irish bog tree populations over the last 7468 years which, together with radiocarbon-dated bog and lake-edge populations, extend the dataset back to 9000 yr ago. The Irish trees underpin the internationally accepted radiocarbon calibration curve, used to derive a proxy of solar activity, and allow us to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change. Tree populations and age structures provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in Holocene surface moisture, with a dominant cyclicity of 800 yr, similar to marine cycles in the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. The cycles, however, are not coherent with changes in solar activity (both being on the same absolute timescale), indicating that Holocene North Atlantic climate variability at the millennial and centennial scale is not driven by a linear response to changes in solar activity.