World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

3D seismic facies characterization and geological patterns recognition (Australian North West Shelf)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This PhD research, funded by the Swiss Sciences Foundation, is principally devoted to enhance the recognition, the visualisation and the characterization of geobodies through innovative 3D seismic approaches. A series of case studies from the Australian North West Shelf ensures the development of reproducible integrated 3D workflows and gives new insight into local and regional stratigraphic as well as structural issues. This project was initiated in year 2000 at the Geology and Palaeontology Institute of the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). Several collaborations ensured the improvement of technical approaches as well as the assessment of geological models. - Investigations into the Timor Sea structural style were carried out at the Tectonics Special Research Centre of the University of Western Australia and in collaboration with Woodside Energy in Perth. - Seismic analysis and attributes classification approach were initiated with Schlumberger Oilfield Australia in Perth; assessments and enhancements of the integrated seismic approaches benefited from collaborations with scientists from Schlumberger Stavanger Research (Norway). Adapting and refining from "linear" exploration techniques, a conceptual "helical" 3D seismic approach has been developed. In order to investigate specific geological issues this approach, integrating seismic attributes and visualisation tools, has been refined and adjusted leading to the development of two specific workflows: - A stratigraphic workflow focused on the recognition of geobodies and the characterization of depositional systems. Additionally, it can support the modelling of the subsidence and incidentally the constraint of the hydrocarbon maturity of a given area. - A structural workflow used to quickly and accurately define major and secondary fault systems. The integration of the 3D structural interpretation results ensures the analysis of the fault networks kinematics which can affect hydrocarbon trapping mechanisms. The application of these integrated workflows brings new insight into two complex settings on the Australian North West Shelf and ensures the definition of astonishing stratigraphic and structural outcomes. The stratigraphic workflow ensures the 3D characterization of the Late Palaeozoic glacial depositional system on the Mermaid Nose (Dampier Subbasin, Northern Carnarvon Basin) that presents similarities with the glacial facies along the Neotethys margin up to Oman (chapter 3.1). A subsidence model reveals the Phanerozoic geodynamic evolution of this area (chapter 3.2) and emphasizes two distinct mode of regional extension for the Palaeozoic (Neotethys opening) and Mesozoic (abyssal plains opening). The structural workflow is used for the definition of the structural evolution of the Laminaria High area (Bonaparte Basin). Following a regional structural characterization of the Timor Sea (chapter 4.1), a thorough analysis of the Mesozoic fault architecture reveals a local rotation of the stress field and the development of reverse structures (flower structures) in extensional setting, that form potential hydrocarbon traps (chapter 4.2). The definition of the complex Neogene structural architecture associated with the fault kinematic analysis and a plate flexure model (chapter 4.3) suggest that the Miocene to Pleistocene reactivation phases recorded at the Laminaria High most probably result from the oblique normal reactivation of the underlying Mesozoic fault planes. This episode is associated with the deformation of the subducting Australian plate. Based on these results three papers were published in international journals and two additional publications will be submitted. Additionally this research led to several communications in international conferences. Although the different workflows presented in this research have been primarily developed and used for the analysis of specific stratigraphic and structural geobodies on the Australian North West Shelf, similar integrated 3D seismic approaches will have applications to hydrocarbon exploration and production phases; for instance increasing the recognition of potential source rocks, secondary migration pathways, additional traps or reservoir breaching mechanisms. The new elements brought by this research further highlight that 3D seismic data contains a tremendous amount of hidden geological information waiting to be revealed and that will undoubtedly bring new insight into depositional systems, structural evolution and geohistory of the areas reputed being explored and constrained and other yet to be constrained. The further development of 3D texture attributes highlighting specific features of the seismic signal, the integration of quantitative analysis for stratigraphic and structural processes, the automation of the interpretation workflow as well as the formal definition of "seismo-morphologic" characteristics of a wide range of geobodies from various environments would represent challenging examples of continuation of this present research. The 21st century will most probably represent a transition period between fossil and other alternative energies. The next generation of seismic interpreters prospecting for hydrocarbon will undoubtedly face new challenges mostly due to the shortage of obvious and easy targets. They will probably have to keep on integrating techniques and geological processes in order to further capitalise the seismic data for new potentials definition. Imagination and creativity will most certainly be among the most important quality required from such geoscientists.

Feeding and oviposition preferences of Ctenarytaina spatulata Taylor (Hemiptera, Psyllidae) for Eucalyptus spp. and other Myrtaceae in Brazil

Feeding and oviposition preferences of Ctenarytaina spatulata Taylor (Hemiptera, Psyllidae) for Eucalyptus spp. and other Myrtaceae in Brazil. The Australian psyllid, Ctenarytaina spatulata Taylor (Hemiptera, Psyllidae), was first detected in Brazil in 1994, where it was found on drought-affected shoots of Eucalyptus grandis in a plantation located in the northern part of Paraná State. The oviposition and feeding preferences of this psyllid were examined on 19 Eucalyptus species, one Eucalyptus hybrid (Cambiju), three Corymbia species and four native Myrtaceae species (Hexaclames edulis, Marlieria edulis, Plinia trunciflora, and Psydium sp.) under greenhouse conditions. The largest populations of C. spatulata were found on E. robusta and E. pellita, while sizeable infestations were also found on E. urophylla, E. grandis, and the Cambiju hybrid. The plants with the greatest symptoms of damage were E. grandis and E. resinifera. Eucalyptus cinerea, E. benthamii, E. pilularis, and E. dunnii were not infested and E. cloeziana was minimally infested. Among the Corymbia species, the number of eggs of C. spatulata was very low on C. citriodora and C. torelliana. No eggs and nymphs of C. spatulata were found on native Brazilian Myrtaceae. The number of eggs on plants was highly correlated with the subsequent levels of nymphs, suggesting that egg counts can be used as a viable monitoring tool to assist with the integrated management of this pest.

Female-biased dispersal in the monogamous mammal Crocidura russula: evidence from field data and microsatellite patterns.

We investigated dispersal patterns in the monogamous Crocidura russula, based both on direct field observations (mark-recapture data) and on genetic analyses (microsatellite loci). Natal dispersal was found to be low. Most juveniles settled within their natal territory or one immediately adjacent. Migration rate was estimated to two individuals per year and per population. The correlation between genetic and geographical distances over a 16 km transect implies that migration occurs over short ranges. Natal dispersal was restricted to first-litter juveniles weaned in early May; this result suggests a direct dependence of dispersal on reproductive opportunities. Natal dispersal was highly female biased, a pattern unusual among mammals. Its association with monogamy provides support for the resource-competition model of dispersal. Our results demonstrate that a state-biased dispersal can be directly inferred from microsatellite genotype distributions, which opens new perspectives for empirical studies in this area.

A new electrocardiographic criteria for discriminating between Brugada types 2 and 3 patterns and incomplete right bundle branch block

Le syndrome de Brugada, une affection rythmique du sujet jeune potentiellement fatale, se manifeste sur l'ECG par un bloc de branche droit (BBD) complet, avec sus-décalage majeur du segment ST et inversion des ondes Τ de V1 à V3 appelé pattern de type 1. Cette présentation peut être intermittente. Les manifestations incomplètes du syndrome de Brugada sont appelées patterns de types 2 ou 3, et sont caractérisées par un BBD incomplet et un sus-décalage ST plus ou moins prononcé dans les dérivations V-, et V2 de l'ECG. Cette description, cependant, est aussi celle du BBD incomplet fréquemment rencontré chez les sujets jeunes, de moins de 40 ans, et présent dans 3% de la population. Bo nombre de ces sujets sont donc référés pour une recherche de syndrome de Brugada. Le but de cette thèse est donc d'évaluer de nouveaux critères permettant de discriminer les BBD incomplets, banals, des sujets porteurs d'un syndrome de Brugada de types 2 ou 3. Trente-huit patients avec un pattern de Brugada de types 2 et 3, référés pour un test médicamenteux utilisant un antiarythmique révélant un pattern de type 1 chez les sujets porteurs, ont été inclus dans l'étude. Avant le test médicamenteux, deux angles ont été mesurés sur les dérivations Vi et/ou V2 : a, l'angle entre une ligne verticale et la descente de l'onde r', et β, l'angle entre la montée de l'onde S et la descente de l'onde r'. Les mesure à l'état basai des deux angles, seules ou combinées avec la durée du QRS, on été comparées entre les patients avec une épreuve pharmacologique positive et ceux dont l'épreuve s'est révélée négative (i.e. servant de groupe contrôle car porteur d'un véritable BBD incomplet). Des courbes ROC ont été établies afin de déterminer les valeurs d'angles les plus discriminantes. La moyenne des angles β était significativement plus petite chez les 14 patients avec un test pharmacologique négatif comparé aux 24 patients avec un test positif. La valeur optimale pour l'angle β était de 58°, ce qui donnait une valeur prédictive positive de 73% et une valeur prédictive négative de 97% pour une conversion en pattern de type 1 lors du test pharmacologique. L'angle α était un peu moins sensible et spécifique que β. Quand les angles étaient combinés à la durée du QRS, on observait une discrète amélioration de la discrimination entre les deux populations. Notre travail permet donc, chez des patients suspects d'un syndrome de Brugada, de discriminer entre un BBD incomplet et les patterns de Brugada types 2 et 3 en utilisant un critère simple basé sur l'ECG de surface potentiellement applicable au lit du patient

Change in defense mechanisms and coping patterns during the course of 2-year-long psychotherapy and psychoanalysis for recurrent depression: a pilot study of a randomized controlled trial.

Very little research has been conducted so far to study the potential mechanisms of change in long-term active psychological treatments of recurrent depression. The present pilot randomized controlled trial aimed to determine the feasibility of studying the change process occurring in patients during the course of 2-year-long dynamic psychotherapy, psychoanalysis, and cognitive therapy, as compared with clinical management. In total, eight outpatients presenting with recurrent depression, two patients per treatment arm, were included. All patients were randomly assigned to one of the four treatment conditions. Defense mechanisms and coping patterns were assessed using validated observer-rated methodology based on transcribed, semistructured follow-along independent dynamic interviews. The results indicated that, whereas some patients in the active treatments changed on the symptomatic levels, some others remained unchanged during the course of their 2-year-long treatment. However, with regard to potential mechanisms of change in these patients, changes in defense mechanisms and coping patterns were revealed to be important processes over time in successful therapies and, to a lesser extent, in less successful treatments. No change was found either on outcome or on the process measure for the control condition, that is, clinical management. These results are discussed along with previous data comparing change in defense mechanisms and coping during the course of treatments.

Circadian and circaseptan patterns of natality and perinatal mortality of infants with different birth weights

OBJECTIVE. Data on human natality, stillbirth and perinatal mortality from Switzerland (1979-1987), available in four birthweight categories, are reexamined to assess any about-weekly (circaseptan) and changes in about-daily (circadian) patterns in central Europe over a century and a halfDESIGN. Retrospective analyses on archived data.SETTING. Federal Office of Statistics for Switzerland.RESULTS. In addition to prominent circadians, weekly patterns are also documented.CONCLUSION. Exogenous variations, prominent in early extrauterine life, such as changes of scheduling in obstetrics, may contribute to circadian and cireaseptan natality patterns. Information on these patterns serves in the optimization of neonatal care. Partly endogenous, partly physical environmental aspects, at least of about-weekly patterns, remain to be elucidated in series consisting exclusively of spontaneous parturitions.

Regional integration and specialisation patterns in Spain

The aim of this paper is to analyse how economic integration in Europe has affected industrial geographical concentration in Spain and explain what the driving forces behind industry location are. Firstly, we construct regional specialisation and geographical concentration indices for Spanish 50 provinces and 30 industrial sectors in 1979, 1986 and 1992. Secondly, we carry out an econometric analysis of the determinants of geographical concentration of industries. Our main conclusion is that there is no evidence of increasing specialisation in Spain between 1979 and 1992 and that the most important determinant of Spain¿s economic geography is scale economies. Furthermore, traditional trade theory has no effects in explaining the pattern of industrial concentration

Regional integration and specialisation patterns in Spain

The aim of this paper is to analyse how economic integration in Europe has affected industrial geographical concentration in Spain and explain what the driving forces behind industry location are. Firstly, we construct regional specialisation and geographical concentration indices for Spanish 50 provinces and 30 industrial sectors in 1979, 1986 and 1992. Secondly, we carry out an econometric analysis of the determinants of geographical concentration of industries. Our main conclusion is that there is no evidence of increasing specialisation in Spain between 1979 and 1992 and that the most important determinant of Spain¿s economic geography is scale economies. Furthermore, traditional trade theory has no effects in explaining the pattern of industrial concentration

Concentrate feeding and milk yield based on field data of milk recorded herds

Selostus: Väkirehuruokinnan vaikutus maidontuotantoon karjantarkkailutiloilta kerätyssä kenttäaineistossa

Mechanisms and evolutionary patterns of mammalian and avian dosage compensation.

As a result of sex chromosome differentiation from ancestral autosomes, male mammalian cells only contain one X chromosome. It has long been hypothesized that X-linked gene expression levels have become doubled in males to restore the original transcriptional output, and that the resulting X overexpression in females then drove the evolution of X inactivation (XCI). However, this model has never been directly tested and patterns and mechanisms of dosage compensation across different mammals and birds generally remain little understood. Here we trace the evolution of dosage compensation using extensive transcriptome data from males and females representing all major mammalian lineages and birds. Our analyses suggest that the X has become globally upregulated in marsupials, whereas we do not detect a global upregulation of this chromosome in placental mammals. However, we find that a subset of autosomal genes interacting with X-linked genes have become downregulated in placentals upon the emergence of sex chromosomes. Thus, different driving forces may underlie the evolution of XCI and the highly efficient equilibration of X expression levels between the sexes observed for both of these lineages. In the egg-laying monotremes and birds, which have partially homologous sex chromosome systems, partial upregulation of the X (Z in birds) evolved but is largely restricted to the heterogametic sex, which provides an explanation for the partially sex-biased X (Z) expression and lack of global inactivation mechanisms in these lineages. Our findings suggest that dosage reductions imposed by sex chromosome differentiation events in amniotes were resolved in strikingly different ways.

Negative impact of hypocaloric feeding and energy balance on clinical outcome in ICU patients

Résumé Introduction : Les patients nécessitant une prise en charge prolongée en milieu de soins intensifs et présentant une évolution compliquée, développent une réponse métabolique intense caractérisée généralement par un hypermétabolisme et un catabolisme protéique. La sévérité de leur atteinte pathologique expose ces patients à la malnutrition, due principalement à un apport nutritionnel insuffisant, et entraînant une balance énergétique déficitaire. Dans un nombre important d'unités de soins intensifs la nutrition des patients n'apparaît pas comme un objectif prioritaire de la prise en charge. En menant une étude prospective d'observation afin d'analyser la relation entre la balance énergétique et le pronostic clinique des patients avec séjours prolongés en soins intensifs, nous souhaitions changer cette attitude et démonter l'effet délétère de la malnutrition chez ce type de patient. Méthodes : Sur une période de 2 ans, tous les patients, dont le séjour en soins intensifs fut de 5 jours ou plus, ont été enrôlés. Les besoins en énergie pour chaque patient ont été déterminés soit par calorimétrie indirecte, soit au moyen d'une formule prenant en compte le poids du patient (30 kcal/kg/jour). Les patients ayant bénéficié d'une calorimétrie indirecte ont par ailleurs vérifié la justesse de la formule appliquée. L'âge, le sexe le poids préopératoire, la taille, et le « Body mass index » index de masse corporelle reconnu en milieu clinique ont été relevés. L'énergie délivrée l'était soit sous forme nutritionnelle (administration de nutrition entérale, parentérale ou mixte) soit sous forme non-nutritionnelle (perfusions : soluté glucosé, apport lipidique non nutritionnel). Les données de nutrition (cible théorique, cible prescrite, énergie nutritionnelle, énergie non-nutritionnelle, énergie totale, balance énergétique nutritionnelle, balance énergétique totale), et d'évolution clinique (nombre des jours de ventilation mécanique, nombre d'infections, utilisation des antibiotiques, durée du séjour, complications neurologiques, respiratoires gastro-intestinales, cardiovasculaires, rénales et hépatiques, scores de gravité pour patients en soins intensifs, valeurs hématologiques, sériques, microbiologiques) ont été analysées pour chacun des 669 jours de soins intensifs vécus par un total de 48 patients. Résultats : 48 patients de 57±16 ans dont le séjour a varié entre 5 et 49 jours (motif d'admission : polytraumatisés 10; chirurgie cardiaque 13; insuffisance respiratoire 7; pathologie gastro-intestinale 3; sepsis 3; transplantation 4; autre 8) ont été retenus. Si nous n'avons pu démontrer une relation entre la balance énergétique et plus particulièrement, le déficit énergétique, et la mortalité, il existe une relation hautement significative entre le déficit énergétique et la morbidité, à savoir les complications et les infections, qui prolongent naturellement la durée du séjour. De plus, bien que l'étude ne comporte aucune intervention et que nous ne puissions avancer qu'il existe une relation de cause à effet, l'analyse par régression multiple montre que le facteur pronostic le plus fiable est justement la balance énergétique, au détriment des scores habituellement utilisés en soins intensifs. L'évolution est indépendante tant de l'âge et du sexe, que du status nutritionnel préopératoire. L'étude ne prévoyait pas de récolter des données économiques : nous ne pouvons pas, dès lors, affirmer que l'augmentation des coûts engendrée par un séjour prolongé en unité de soins intensifs est induite par un déficit énergétique, même si le bon sens nous laisse penser qu'un séjour plus court engendre un coût moindre. Cette étude attire aussi l'attention sur l'origine du déficit énergétique : il se creuse au cours de la première semaine en soins intensifs, et pourrait donc être prévenu par une intervention nutritionnelle précoce, alors que les recommandations actuelles préconisent un apport énergétique, sous forme de nutrition artificielle, qu'à partir de 48 heures de séjour aux soins intensifs. Conclusions : L'étude montre que pour les patients de soins intensifs les plus graves, la balance énergétique devrait être considérée comme un objectif important de la prise en charge, nécessitant l'application d'un protocole de nutrition précoce. Enfin comme l'évolution à l'admission des patients est souvent imprévisible, et que le déficit s'installe dès la première semaine, il est légitime de s'interroger sur la nécessité d'appliquer ce protocole à tous les patients de soins intensifs et ceci dès leur admission. Summary Background and aims: Critically ill patients with complicated evolution are frequently hypermetabolic, catabolic, and at risk of underfeeding. The study aimed at assessing the relationship between energy balance and outcome in critically ill patients. Methods: Prospective observational study conducted in consecutive patients staying 5 days in the surgical ICU of a University hospital. Demographic data, time to feeding, route, energy delivery, and outcome were recorded. Energy balance was calculated as energy delivery minus target. Data in means+ SD, linear regressions between energy balance and outcome variables. Results: Forty eight patients aged 57±16 years were investigated; complete data are available in 669 days. Mechanical ventilation lasted 11±8 days, ICU stay 15+9 was days, and 30-days mortality was 38%. Time to feeding was 3.1 ±2.2 days. Enteral nutrition was the most frequent route with 433 days. Mean daily energy delivery was 1090±930 kcal. Combining enteral and parenteral nutrition achieved highest energy delivery. Cumulated energy balance was between -12,600+ 10,520 kcal, and correlated with complications (P<0.001), already after 1 week. Conclusion: Negative energy balances were correlated with increasing number of complications, particularly infections. Energy debt appears as a promising tool for nutritional follow-up, which should be further tested. Delaying initiation of nutritional support exposes the patients to energy deficits that cannot be compensated later on.

Regional integration and specialisation patterns in Spain

The aim of this paper is to analyse how economic integration in Europe has affected industrial geographical concentration in Spain and explain what the driving forces behind industry location are. Firstly, we construct regional specialisation and geographical concentration indices for Spanish 50 provinces and 30 industrial sectors in 1979, 1986 and 1992. Secondly, we carry out an econometric analysis of the determinants of geographical concentration of industries. Our main conclusion is that there is no evidence of increasing specialisation in Spain between 1979 and 1992 and that the most important determinant of Spain¿s economic geography is scale economies. Furthermore, traditional trade theory has no effects in explaining the pattern of industrial concentration

Regional and cellular patterns of reelin mRNA expression in the forebrain of the developing and adult mouse

The reelin gene encodes an extracellular protein that is crucial for neuronal migration in laminated brain regions. To gain insights into the functions of Reelin, we performed high-resolution in situ hybridization analyses to determine the pattern of reelin expression in the developing forebrain of the mouse. We also performed double-labeling studies with several markers, including calcium-binding proteins, GAD65/67, and neuropeptides, to characterize the neuronal subsets that express reelin transcripts. reelinexpression was detected at embryonic day 10 and later in the forebrain, with a distribution that is consistent with the prosomeric model of forebrain regionalization. In the diencephalon, expression was restricted to transverse and longitudinal domains that delineated boundaries between neuromeres. During embryogenesis,reelin was detected in the cerebral cortex in Cajal-Retzius cells but not in the GABAergic neurons of layer I. At prenatal stages, reelin was also expressed in the olfactory bulb, and striatum and in restricted nuclei in the ventral telencephalon, hypothalamus, thalamus, and pretectum. At postnatal stages, reelin transcripts gradually disappeared from Cajal-Retzius cells, at the same time as they appeared in subsets of GABAergic neurons distributed throughout neocortical and hippocampal layers. In other telencephalic and diencephalic regions,reelin expression decreased steadily during the postnatal period. In the adult, there was prominent expression in the olfactory bulb and cerebral cortex, where it was restricted to subsets of GABAergic interneurons that co-expressed calbindin, calretinin, neuropeptide Y, and somatostatin. This complex pattern of cellular and regional expression is consistent with Reelin having multiple roles in brain development and adult brain function.