Parallel simulation system for earthquake generation: Fault analysis modules and parallel coupling analysis

Solid earth simulations have recently been developed to address issues such as natural disasters, global environmental destruction and the conservation of natural resources. The simulation of solid earth phenomena involves the analysis of complex structures including strata, faults, and heterogeneous material properties. Simulation of the generation and cycle of earthquakes is particularly important, but such simulations require the analysis of complex fault dynamics. GeoFEM is a parallel finite-element analysis system intended for solid earth field phenomena problems. This paper describes recent development in the GeoFEM project for the simulation of earthquake generation and cycles.

Predicting cave initiation and propagation

The most widely used method for predicting the onset of continuous caving is Laubscher's caving chart. A detailed examination of this method was undertaken which concluded that it had limitations which may impact on results, particularly when dealing with stronger rock masses that are outside current experience. These limitations relate to inadequate guidelines for adjustment factors to rock mass rating (RMR), concerns about the position on the chart of critical case history data, undocumented changes to the method and an inadequate number of data points to be confident of stability boundaries. A review was undertaken on the application and reliability of a numerical method of assessing cavability. The review highlighted a number of issues, which at this stage, make numerical continuum methods problematic for predicting cavability. This is in particular reference to sensitivity to input parameters that are difficult to determine accurately and mesh dependency. An extended version of the Mathews method for open stope design was developed as an alternative method of predicting the onset of continuous caving. A number of caving case histories were collected and analyzed and a caving boundary delineated statistically on the Mathews stability graph. The definition of the caving boundary was aided by the existence of a large and wide-ranging stability database from non-caving mines. A caving rate model was extrapolated from the extended Mathews stability graph but could only be partially validated due to a lack of reliable data.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. III. Direct time propagation accelerated by a diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative solver

In this paper we propose a novel fast and linearly scalable method for solving master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems, based on an existent stiff ordinary differential equation integrator. The required solution of a linear system involving the Jacobian matrix is achieved using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods and maintain the low temperature robustness of numerical integration. The method is tested using a master equation modelling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Simultaneous FT-NIR and ESR analyses to yield propagation rate coefficients for polymerization of methyl methacrylate based monomers

A hyphenated instrumental approach has been used to obtain reliable values for the propagation rate coefficients as a function of conversion for polymerizations of methyl methacrylate (MMA) and a mixture of MMA and ethyleneglycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA) with a 1:1 concentration of double bonds, from near the onset of the Trommsdorf region into the glass region. ESR spectroscopy was used to measure the radical concentration while FT-NIR fibre-optic spectroscopy was employed to measure instantaneously the double-bond concentration within the temperature-controlled cavity of the ESR instrument during polymerization. The advantage of this approach to the measurement of the rate coefficient is that it is equally applicable to branching and linear polymerizations. For the polymerization of methyl methacrylate, the values of the rate coefficient at the lowest conversions at which reliable values could be obtained were in agreement with recently reported values obtained by the PLP-SEC method. For the lowest conversions, the values obtained were 403 1 mol(-1) s(-1) at 306 K for MMA and 5201 mol(-1) s(-1) at 310 K for a 1:1 mixture of MMA and EGDMA. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

Influence of leaf retention on cutting propagation of Lavandula dentata L.

Vegetative propagation of lavender offers several advantages over sexual propagation, among them crop homogeneity and yield of higher quality essential oil. However, Lavandula species have been propagated mostly by seeds and are said to be recalcitrant to rooting when propagated by cuttings. During cutting propagation, one of the important variables that influence the rooting capacity of cuttings is the leaf retention. The objective of this work was to evaluate the influence of leaf retention on rooting of L. dentata cuttings. Apical cuttings of L. dentata of 10 cm in length, keeping approximately 1/3, 1/2 or 2/3 of their leaves were planted in commercial substrate Plantmax HT® under intermittent mist. After two months, averages of root number, length of the longest root, root fresh and dry weights, and the survival percentage were evaluated. Root length and fresh weight were statistically greater with 2/3 of leaf retention and when fewer leaves were kept on the cuttings, lower means of root dry weight was observed. Under the conditions applied in this study, greater leaf retention was better for rooting of L. dentata cuttings.

Chemical sterilization in in vitro propagation of Arundina bambusifolia Lindl. and Epidendrum ibaguense Kunth

There is a great demand for simpler and less costly laboratory techniques and for more accessible procedures for orchid breeders who do not have the necessary theoretical basis to use the traditional seed and clone production methods of orchids in vitro. The aim of this study was to assess the use of sodium hypochlorite (NaClO) as a decontaminant in the process of inoculating adult orchid explants of Arundina bambusifolia and Epidendrum ibaguenses. Solutions of NaClO (1.200, 2.400, 3.600, 4.800 and 6.000 mg L-1 - equivalent to 50, 100, 150, 200 and 250 mL L-1 of commercial bleach - CB) were sprayed on the explants (1.0 mL) and the culture medium (GB5), in the presence or absence of activated charcoal (2 g L-1). The explants used were nodal segments of field-grown adult plants. The procedures for inoculating the explants were conducted outside the laminar flow chamber (LFC), except for the control treatment (autoclaved medium and explant inoculation inside the LFC). The best results for fresh weight yield, height and number of shoots were obtained using NaClO in solution at 1.200 mg L-1 (equivalent to 50 mL L-1 commercial bleach) with activated charcoal in the culture medium. Fresh weight figures were 1.10 g/jar for Arundina bambusifolia and 0.16 g/jar for Epidendrum ibaguenses. Spraying the NaClO solutions controls the contamination of the culture medium already inoculated with the explants.

Rooting of hardwood cuttings of Roxo de Valinhos fig (Ficus carica L.) with different propagation strategies

The objective of this study was to evaluate the substrate, cuttings collection time, the position and the cutting depth, and the propagation environment on rooting of 'Purple Valinhos' fig tree cuttings in Southwestern Paraná, Brazil. Two experiments were carried out at UTFPR, Câmpus Dois Vizinhos, with hardwoods cuttings from Roxo de Valinhos fig tree. The first experiment used a randomized block design, in 3 x 3 x 2 factorial (substrate x environment x collection time), with four replications of 10 cuttings per plot. The cuttings were collected in the first fifteen days of July and August. The substrates were sand, soil and the mixture of these [1:1 (v / v)]. The environments used were open sky, tunnel with plastic cover and tunnel with half-shade black net cover. The second experiment used a randomized block design, 2 x 2 x 3 factorial (shoot cutting position x soil cover x shoot cutting depth), with four replications of 12 cuttings per plot. In the factor position, the vertically (0 º inclination) and inclined (45 º inclination) shoot cuttings were evaluated. Soil cover was tested with mulching plastic cover or not. The tested depths were 1/3, 1/2 and 2/3 in relation to the total length of the shoot cutting. In both experiments, the following were analyzed: rooting and mortality indices, number of leaves and primary shoots, length of the three largest roots per cutting. It was conclude that, the protected environment with plastic cover on sand as substrate must recommended for the rooting of fig estaca, collecting them in the first half of July. The inclination position and cutting depth of the estaca and the substrate coverage with plastic mulching did not influence the results.

Response of a multi-domain continental margin to compression: Study from seismic reflection-refraction and numerical modelling in the Tagus Abyssal Plain

The effects of the Miocene through Present compression in the Tagus Abyssal Plain are mapped using the most up to date available to scientific community multi-channel seismic reflection and refraction data. Correlation of the rift basin fault pattern with the deep crustal structure is presented along seismic line IAM-5. Four structural domains were recognized. In the oceanic realm mild deformation concentrates in Domain I adjacent to the Tore-Madeira Rise. Domain 2 is characterized by the absence of shortening structures, except near the ocean-continent transition (OCT), implying that Miocene deformation did not propagate into the Abyssal Plain, In Domain 3 we distinguish three sub-domains: Sub-domain 3A which coincides with the OCT, Sub-domain 3B which is a highly deformed adjacent continental segment, and Sub-domain 3C. The Miocene tectonic inversion is mainly accommodated in Domain 3 by oceanwards directed thrusting at the ocean-continent transition and continentwards on the continental slope. Domain 4 corresponds to the non-rifted continental margin where only minor extensional and shortening deformation structures are observed. Finite element numerical models address the response of the various domains to the Miocene compression, emphasizing the long-wavelength differential vertical movements and the role of possible rheologic contrasts. The concentration of the Miocene deformation in the transitional zone (TC), which is the addition of Sub-domain 3A and part of 3B, is a result of two main factors: (1) focusing of compression in an already stressed region due to plate curvature and sediment loading; and (2) theological weakening. We estimate that the frictional strength in the TC is reduced in 30% relative to the surrounding regions. A model of compressive deformation propagation by means of horizontal impingement of the middle continental crust rift wedge and horizontal shearing on serpentinized mantle in the oceanic realm is presented. This model is consistent with both the geological interpretation of seismic data and the results of numerical modelling.

The source of the 1722 Algarve earthquake: evidence from MCS and tsunami data

The 27 December 1722 Algarve earthquake destroyed a large area in southern Portugal generating a local tsunami that inundated the shallow areas of Tavira. It is unclear whether its source was located onshore or offshore and, in any case, what was the tectonic source responsible for the event. We analyze available historical information concerning macroseismicity and the tsunami to discuss the most probable location of the source. We also review available seismotectonic knowledge of the offshore region close to the probable epicenter, selecting a set of four candidate sources. We simulate tsunamis produced by these candidate sources assuming that the sea bottom displacement is caused by a compressive dislocation over a rectangular fault, as given by the half-space homogeneous elastic approach, and we use numerical modeling to study wave propagation and run-up. We conclude that the 27 December 1722 Tavira earthquake and tsunami was probably generated offshore, close to 37 degrees 01'N, 7 degrees 49'W.

Tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Gulf of Cadiz: fault model and recurrence

The Gulf of Cadiz, as part of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary, is recognized as a potential source of big earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the bordering countries, as occurred on 1 November 1755. Preparing for the future, Portugal is establishing a national tsunami warning system in which the threat caused by any large-magnitude earthquake in the area is estimated from a comprehensive database of scenarios. In this paper we summarize the knowledge about the active tectonics in the Gulf of Cadiz and integrate the available seismological information in order to propose the generation model of destructive tsunamis to be applied in tsunami warnings. The fault model derived is then used to estimate the recurrence of large earthquakes using the fault slip rates obtained by Cunha et al. (2012) from thin-sheet neotectonic modelling. Finally we evaluate the consistency of seismicity rates derived from historical and instrumental catalogues with the convergence rates between Eurasia and Nubia given by plate kinematic models.

Multi-μ: an Ada 95 based architecture for fault tolerance support of real-time systems

This paper presents an architecture (Multi-μ) being implemented to study and develop software based fault tolerant mechanisms for Real-Time Systems, using the Ada language (Ada 95) and Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) components. Several issues regarding fault tolerance are presented and mechanisms to achieve fault tolerance by software active replication in Ada 95 are discussed. The Multi-μ architecture, based on a specifically proposed Fault Tolerance Manager (FTManager), is then described. Finally, some considerations are made about the work being done and essential future developments.

From local to global importance measures of uncertainty propagation in composite structures

The influence of uncertainties of input parameters on output response of composite structures is investigated in this paper. In particular, the effects of deviations in mechanical properties, ply angles, ply thickness and on applied loads are studied. The uncertainty propagation and the importance measure of input parameters are analysed using three different approaches: a first-order local method, a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) supported by a variance-based method and an extension of local variance to estimate the global variance over the domain of inputs. Sample results are shown for a shell composite laminated structure built with different composite systems including multi-materials. The importance measures of input parameters on structural response based on numerical results are established and discussed as a function of the anisotropy of composite materials. Needs for global variance methods are discussed by comparing the results obtained from different proposed methodologies. The objective of this paper is to contribute for the use of GSA techniques together with low expensive local importance measures.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

A VLF to UHF propagation model for evaluation of high-speed railway electromagnetic interference in RF monitoring base-stations

Considering that recent european high-speed railway system has a traction power system of kV 50 Hz, which causes electromagnetic emission for the outside world, it is important to dimension the railway system emissions, using a frequency/distance dependent propagation model. This paper presents an enhanced theoretical model for VLF to UHF propagation, railway system oriented. It introduces the near field approach (crucial in low frequency propagation) and also considers the source characteristics and type of measuring antenna. Simulations are presented, and comparisons are set with earlier far field models. Using the developed model, a real case study was performed in partnership with Refer Telecom (portuguese telecom operator for railways). The new propagation model was used in order to predict the future high-speed railway electromagnetic emissions in the Lisbon north track. The results show the model's prediction capabilities and also its applicability to realistic scenarios.

The 1531 Lisbon Earthquake: A Tsunami In the Tagus Estuary?

On 26 January 1531, a strong-magnitude earthquake heavily impacted Lisbon downtown. Immediately after the earthquake, the eyewitnesses reported large waves in the Tagus estuary, mainly north of the city and along the northern bank of the river. Descriptions include large impacts on ships anchored in the estuary and even morphological changes in the riverbed. We present a synthesis of the available information concerning both the earthquake and the water disturbance as a basis for the discussion of the probable tectonic source and the magnitude of the associated river oscillations. We hypothesize that the initial disturbance of the water can be attributed to the coseismic deformation of the estuary riverbed, and we use a nonlinear shallow water model to simulate the tsunami propagation and inundation. We show that the Vila Franca de Xira fault is the most probable source of the 1531 event. The largest inundation effects of the model correlate well with the historical descriptions: the impact is relevant in the inner Tagus estuary, but inundation in downtown Lisbon is small.