Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company.

Urinary biomolecular indicators of exercise-induced over exertion injury

Poor health and injury represent major obstacles to the future economic security of Australia. The national economic cost of work-related injury is estimated at $57.5 billion p/a. Since exposure to high physical demands is a major risk factor for musculoskeletal injury, monitoring and managing such physical activity levels in workers is a potentially important injury prevention strategy. Current injury monitoring practices are inadequate for the provision of clinically valuable information about the tissue specific responses to physical exertion. Injury of various soft tissue structures can manifest over time through accumulation of micro-trauma. Such micro-trauma has a propensity to increase the risk of acute injuries to soft-tissue structures such as muscle or tendon. As such, the capacity to monitor biomarkers that result from the disruption of these tissues offers a means of assisting the pre-emptive management of subclinical injury prior to acute failure or for evaluation of recovery processes. Here we have adopted an in-vivo exercise induced muscle damage model allowing the application of laboratory controlled conditions to assist in uncovering biochemical indicators associated with soft-tissue trauma and recovery. Importantly, urine was utilised as the diagnostic medium since it is non-invasive to collect, more acceptable to workers and less costly to employers. Moreover, it is our hypothesis that exercise induced tissue degradation products enter the circulation and are subsequently filtered by the kidney and pass through to the urine. To test this hypothesis a range of metabolomic and proteomic discovery-phase techniques were used, along with targeted approaches. Several small molecules relating to tissue damage were identified along with a series of skeletal muscle-specific protein fragments resulting from exercise induced soft-tissue damage. Each of the potential biomolecular markers appeared to be temporally present within urine. Moreover, the regulation of abundance seemed to be associated with functional recovery following the injury. This discovery may have important clinical applications for monitoring of a variety of inflammatory myopathies as well as novel applications in monitoring of the musculoskeletal health status of workers, professional athletes and/or military personnel to reduce the onset of potentially debilitating musculoskeletal injuries within these professions.

Phenotypical characterisation of the isolated Norfolk Island population focusing on epidemiological indicators of cardiovascular disease

Objectives Only 193 people from Pitcairn Island, all descended from 9 ‘Bounty’ mutineers and 12 Tahitian women, moved to the uninhabited Norfolk Island in 1856. Our objective was to assess the population of Norfolk Island, several thousand km off the eastern coast of Australia, as a genetic isolate of potential use for cardiovascular disease (CVD) gene mapping. Methods A total of 602 participants, approximately two thirds of the island’s present adult population, were characterized for a panel of CVD risk factors. Statistical power and heritability were calculated. Results Norfolk Islander’s possess an increased prevalence of hypertension, obesity and multiple CVD risk factors when compared to outbred Caucasian populations. 64% of the study participants were descendents of the island’s original founder population. Triglycerides, cholesterol, and blood pressures all had heritabilities above 0.2. Conclusions The Norfolk land population is a potentially useful genetic isolate for gene mapping studies aimed at identifying CVD risk factor quantitative trait loci (QTL).

Surrogate indicators for assessing community resilience

The importance of community resilience to natural disasters is being increasingly recognised. This paper presents an approach for the development of surrogate indicators for comprehensive assessment of community resilience, which is crucial in the context of predicted increase in natural disasters resulting from extreme weather events due to climate change. The use of surrogate indicators is advocated because a comprehensive assessment of community resilience across various thematic areas and associated key areas requires the measurement of a large number of resilience indicators which is not always feasible due to time and resource constraints, To overcome this, researchers tend to use secondary data sources, which are easily available but not always reliable. This highlights the need for surrogate indicators that are easy to measure from reliable primary data sources and are adequate to capture the resilience of a community. Firstly, the paper discusses the two approaches for defining and conceptualising community resilience and the need to account for the complex interrelationships between thematic areas, key areas and resilience indicators and their implications for research. Secondly, a comprehensive framework for the assessment of community resilience is proposed and the difficulties associated with the measurement of overall resilience of the community are discussed. Thirdly, the paper explains a two-step approach to develop surrogate indicators highlighting the necessity and challenges associated with it. Finally, the proposed approach is elaborated with a simple example for better understanding.

Child eating behaviour outcomes of an early feeding intervention to reduce risk indicators for child obesity : the NOURISH RCT

Objective Describe parent-reported child eating behaviour and maternal parenting impact outcomes of an infant feeding intervention to reduce child obesity risk. Design and Methods An assessor masked Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) with concealed allocation of individual mother-infant dyads. The NOURISH RCT enrolled 698 first-time mothers (mean age 30.1 years, SD=5.3) with healthy term infants (51% female) aged 4.3 months (SD=1.0) at baseline. Outcomes were assessed six months post-intervention when the children were 2-years old. Mothers reported on child eating behaviours using the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ), food preferences and dietary intake using a 24-hour telephone recall. Parenting was assessed using five scales validated for use in Australia. Results Intervention effects were evident on the CEBQ overall (MANOVA P=.002) and 4/8 subscales: child satiety responsiveness (P=.03), fussiness (P=.01), emotional overeating (P<.01), and food responsiveness (P=.06). Intervention children ‘liked’ more fruits (P<.01) and fewer non-core foods and beverages (Ps=.06, .03). The intervention mothers reported greater ‘autonomy encouragement’ (P=.002) Conclusions Anticipatory guidance on protective feeding practices appears to have modest positive impacts on child eating behaviours that are postulated to reduce future obesity risk.

Survival tucker : improved diet and health indicators in an Aboriginal community

The poor nutritional status of Aboriginal Australians is a serious and complex public health concern. We describe an unusually successful health and nutrition project initiated by the people of Minjilang, which was developed, implemented and evaluated with the community. Apparent community dietary intake, assessed by the ‘store-turnover’ method, and biochemical, anthropometric and haematological indicators of health and nutritional status were measured before intervention and at three-monthly intervals during the intervention year. Following intervention, there was a significant decrease in dietary intake of sugar and saturated fat, an increase in micronutrient density, corresponding improvements in biochemical indices (for example, a 12 per cent decrease in mean serum cholesterol, increases in serum and red cell folate, serum vitamin B6 and plasma ascorbic acid), decrease in mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures, a normalisation of body mass index, and a normalisation of haematologic indices. The success of this project demonstrates that Aboriginal communities can bring about improvements in their generally poor nutritional status, and that the store-turnover method provides a valid, inexpensive and noninvasive method for evaluating the resultant changes in community diet. Although the project was undoubtedly effective in the short term, further work is in progress to assess individual strategies with respect to sustainability, cost-effectiveness and generalisability.

A preliminary study of the effects of Tai Chi and Qigong medical exercise on indicators of metabolic syndrome, glycaemic control, health-related quality of life, and psychological health in adults with elevated blood glucose

Objectives To evaluate the feasibility, acceptability and effects of a Tai Chi and Qigong exercise programme in adults with elevated blood glucose. Design, Setting, and Participants A single group pre–post feasibility trial with 11 participants (3 male and 8 female; aged 42–65 years) with elevated blood glucose. Intervention Participants attended Tai Chi and Qigong exercise training for 1 to 1.5 h, 3 times per week for 12 weeks, and were encouraged to practise the exercises at home. Main Outcome Measures Indicators of metabolic syndrome (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol); glucose control (HbA1c, fasting insulin and insulin resistance (HOMA)); health-related quality of life; stress and depressive symptoms. Results There was good adherence and high acceptability. There were significant improvements in four of the seven indicators of metabolic syndrome including BMI (mean difference −1.05, p<0.001), waist circumference (−2.80 cm, p<0.05), and systolic (−11.64 mm Hg, p<0.01) and diastolic blood pressure (−9.73 mm Hg, p<0.001), as well as in HbA1c (−0.32%, p<0.01), insulin resistance (−0.53, p<0.05), stress (−2.27, p<0.05), depressive symptoms (−3.60, p<0.05), and the SF-36 mental health summary score (5.13, p<0.05) and subscales for general health (19.00, p<0.01), mental health (10.55, p<0.01) and vitality (23.18, p<0.05). Conclusions The programme was feasible and acceptable and participants showed improvements in metabolic and psychological variables. A larger controlled trial is now needed to confirm these promising preliminary results.

Building indicators in media assistance; four ways evaluation reports present “change”

The international aid and development community has supported programs that aim to build the capacity of media professionals or contribute to an enabling environment throughout the past 20 years. However, two decades on from the first modern media assistance programs, the sector is still struggling to identify, measure and understand the changes effected by their programs. There are questions raised as to whether it is even feasible to identify impacts on society and governance. This paper draws on some preliminary findings from a comparative thematic analysis of 47 evaluation documents of media assistance programs. The aim of this analysis is to identify trends in impact evaluation practice in the media assistance field, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of different evaluation approaches. This paper presents four types of social change claims commonly presented in reports; hypothetical changes, introduction of new opportunities, concrete examples of immediate impacts, and analysis of ongoing social and political changes. Although these types may appear as a spectrum from weak to strong, the interactions are perhaps more accurately understood using metaphors such as building blocks. This paper explores these types in more detail and suggests that a robust set of impacts-types could be useful in developing more grounded theories of change and indicators.

Environmental indicators for sustainable road development and operation

Road construction, maintenance and operation are activities that impact the environment by way of energy use, resource consumption and emission. Components such as construction material, transportation, street lighting, rolling resistance, traffic congestion during works, albedo and end-of-life processing impact the environment at different phases of the life of a road. With a view to promote sustainable development, a few sustainability rating schemes, e.g. Infrastructure Sustainability and Invest (Australia), Envision and Greenroads (USA), and CEEQUAL (UK) have been developed, that can assess road projects. These schemes address environmental areas such as: energy and emission, land, water, materials, discharges into surroundings, waste and ecology as factors for sustainable development. This paper assesses different rating schemes based on a defined comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) system boundary for road projects to identify different environmental indicators that address sustainable road development and operation. The findings indicate that new indicators are required to address different environmental components during the operation phase of roads.

Measures of nutrient processes as indicators of stream ecosystem health

To better understand how freshwater ecosystems respond to changes in catchment land-use, it is important to develop measures of ecological health that include aspects of both ecosystem structure and function. This study investigated measures of nutrient processes as potential indicators of stream ecosystem health across a land-use gradient from relatively undisturbed to highly modified. A total of seven indicators (potential denitrification; an index of denitrification potential relative to sediment organic matter; benthic algal growth on artificial substrates amended with (a) N only, (b) P only, and (c) N and P; and δ15N of aquatic plants and benthic sediment) were measured at 53 streams in southeast Queensland, Australia. The indicators were evaluated by their response to a defined gradient of agricultural land-use disturbance as well as practical aspects of using the indicators as part of a monitoring program. Regression models based on descriptors of the disturbance gradient explained a large proportion of the variation in six of the seven indicators. Denitrification index, algal growth in N amended substrate, and δ15N of aquatic plants demonstrated the best regression. However, the δ15N value of benthic sediment was found to be the best indicator overall for incorporation into a monitoring program, as samples were relatively easy to collect and process, and were successfully collected at more than 90% of the study sites.

Study Protocol - Alcohol Management Plans (AMPs) in remote indigenous communities in Queensland: their impacts on injury, violence, health and social indicators and their cost-effectiveness

Background In 2002/03 the Queensland Government responded to high rates of alcohol-related harm in discrete Indigenous communities by implementing alcohol management plans (AMPs), designed to include supply and harm reduction and treatment measures. Tighter alcohol supply and carriage restrictions followed in 2008 following indications of reductions in violence and injury. Despite the plans being in place for over a decade, no comprehensive independent review has assessed to what level the designed aims were achieved and what effect the plans have had on Indigenous community residents and service providers. This study will describe the long-term impacts on important health, economic and social outcomes of Queensland’s AMPs. Methods/Design The project has two main studies, 1) outcome evaluation using de-identified epidemiological data on injury, violence and other health and social indicators for across Queensland, including de-identified databases compiled from relevant routinely-available administrative data sets, and 2) a process evaluation to map the nature, timing and content of intervention components targeting alcohol. Process evaluation will also be used to assess the fidelity with which the designed intervention components have been implemented, their uptake and community responses to them and their perceived impacts on alcohol supply and consumption, injury, violence and community health. Interviews and focus groups with Indigenous residents and service providers will be used. The study will be conducted in all 24 of Queensland’s Indigenous communities affected by alcohol management plans. Discussion This evaluation will report on the impacts of the original aims for AMPs, what impact they have had on Indigenous residents and service providers. A central outcome will be the establishment of relevant databases describing the parameters of the changes seen. This will permit comprehensive and rigorous surveillance systems to be put in place and provided to communities empowering them with the best credible evidence to judge future policy and program requirements for themselves. The project will inform impending alcohol policy and program adjustments in Queensland and other Australian jurisdictions. The project has been approved by the James Cook University Human Research Ethics Committee (approval number H4967 & H5241).

Novel use of faecal sterols to assess human faecal contamination in Antarctica : a likelihood assessment matrix for environmental monitoring

Wastewater containing human sewage is often discharged with little or no treatment into the Antarctic marine environment. Faecal sterols (primarily coprostanol) in sediments have been used for assessment of human sewage contamination in this environment, but in situ production and indigenous faunal inputs can confound such determinations. Using gas chromatography with mass spectral detection profiles of both C27 and C29 sterols, potential sources of faecal sterols were examined in nearshore marine sediments, encompassing sites proximal and distal to the wastewater outfall at Davis Station. Faeces from indigenous seals and penguins were also examined. Faeces from several indigenous species contained significant quantities of coprostanol but not 24-ethylcoprostanol, which is present in human faeces. In situ coprostanol and 24-ethylcoprostanol production was identified by co-production of their respective epi isomers at sites remote from the wastewat er source and in high total organic matter sediments. A C 29 sterols-based polyphasic likelihood assessment matrix for human sewage contamination is presented, which distinguishes human from local fauna faecal inputs and in situ production in the Antarctic environment. Sewage contamination was detected up to 1.5 km from Davis Station.

Public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation: A choice experiment using ecosystem services indicators

Potential conflicts exist between biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation as trade-offs in multiple-use land management. This study aims to evaluate public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation policy considering respondents’ uncertainty on their choice. We conducted a choice experiment using land-use scenarios in the rural Kushiro watershed in northern Japan. The results showed that the public strongly wish to avoid the extinction of endangered species in preference to climate-change mitigation in the form of carbon sequestration by increasing the area of managed forest. Knowledge of the site and the respondents’ awareness of the personal benefits associated with supporting and regulating services had a positive effect on their preference for conservation plans. Thus, decision-makers should be careful about how they provide ecological information for informed choices concerning ecosystem services tradeoffs. Suggesting targets with explicit indicators will affect public preferences, as well as the willingness of the public to pay for such measures. Furthermore, the elicited-choice probabilities approach is useful for revealing the distribution of relative preferences for incomplete scenarios, thus verifying the effectiveness of indicators introduced in the experiment.