Synthesis, structure, and optical properties of an alternating calix[4]arene-based meta-linked phenylene ethynylene copolymer

Novel alternating copolymers comprising biscalix[4]arene-p-phenylene ethynylene and m-phenylene ethynylene units (CALIX-m-PPE) were synthesized using the Sonogashira-Hagihara cross-coupling polymerization. Good isolated yields (60-80%) were achieved for the polymers that show M-n ranging from 1.4 x 10(4) to 5.1 x 10(4) gmol(-1) (gel permeation chromatography analysis), depending on specific polymerization conditions. The structural analysis of CALIX-m-PPE was performed by H-1, C-13, C-13-H-1 heteronuclear single quantum correlation (HSQC), C-13-H-1 heteronuclear multiple bond correlation (HMBC), correlation spectroscopy (COSY), and nuclear overhauser effect spectroscopy (NOESY) in addition to Fourier transform-Infrared spectroscopy and microanalysis allowing its full characterization. Depending on the reaction setup, variable amounts (16-45%) of diyne units were found in polymers although their photophysical properties are essentially the same. It is demonstrated that CALIX-m-PPE does not form ground-or excited-state interchain interactions owing to the highly crowded environment of the main-chain imparted by both calix[4]arene side units which behave as insulators inhibiting main-chain pi-pi staking. It was also found that the luminescent properties of CALIX-m-PPE are markedly different from those of an all-p-linked phenylene ethynylene copolymer (CALIX-p-PPE) previously reported. The unexpected appearance of a low-energy emission band at 426 nm, in addition to the locally excited-state emission (365 nm), together with a quite low fluorescence quantum yield (Phi = 0.02) and a double-exponential decay dynamics led to the formulation of an intramolecular exciplex as the new emissive species.

Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Presence of Circulating Levels of Interferon-g, Interleukin-10 and Tumor Necrosis Factor-a in Patients with Visceral Leishmaniasis

Experimental murine L. major infection is characterized by the expansion of distinct CD4+ T cell subsets. The Th1 response is related to production of IFN-g and resolution of infection, whereas Th-2 response with production of IL-4 and IL-10 and dissemination of infection. The objective of this study was to measure the circulating levels of IFN-g, IL-10 and TNF-a in patients with visceral leishmaniasis (VL) before, during and at the end of therapy and to examine the association between cytokine levels and activity of VL. Fifteen patients with VL were evaluated. The cytokine determinations were done by using the enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) before, during and at the end of therapy. At baseline, we detected circulating levels of IFN-g in 13 of 15 patients (median = 60 pg/ml); IL-10 in 14 of 15 patients (median = 141.4 pg/ml); and TNF-a in 13 of 14 patients (median = 38.9 pg/ml). As patients improved, following antimonial therapy, circulating levels of IL-10 showed an exponential decay (y = 82.34 e–0,10367x, r = –0.659; p < 0.001). IFN-g was no longer detected after 7/14 days of therapy. On the other hand, circulating levels of TNF-a had a less pronounced decay with time on therapy, remaining detectable in most patients during the first seven days of therapy (y = 36.99-0.933x, r = –0.31; p = 0.05). Part of the expression of a successful response to therapy may, therefore, include reduction in secretion of inflammatory as well as suppressive cytokines. Since IL-10 and IFN-g are both detected prior to therapy, the recognized cellular immune depression seen in these patients may be due to biological predominance of IL-10 (type 2 cytokine), rather than lack of IFN-g (type 1 cytokine) production.

Hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of an ungauged watershed using mapwindow-swat

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Self-monitoring of freeze–thaw damage using triphasic electric conductive concrete

The effect of freeze–thaw cycles on concrete is of great importance for durability evaluation of concrete structures in cold regions. In this paper, damage accumulation was studied by following the fractional change of impedance (FCI) with number of freeze–thaw cycles (N). The nano-carbon black (NCB), carbon fiber (CF) and steel fiber (SF) were added to plain concrete to produce the triphasic electrical conductive (TEC) and ductile concrete. The effects of NCB, CF and SF on the compressive strength, flexural properties, electrical impedance were investigated. The concrete beams with different dosages of conductive materials were studied for FCI, N and mass loss (ML), the relationship between FCI and N of conductive concrete can be well defined by a first order exponential decay curve. It is noted that this nondestructive and sensitive real-time testing method is meaningful for evaluating of freeze–thaw damage in concrete.

Annular flow of viscoelastic fluids: Analytical and numerical solutions

This work provides analytical and numerical solutions for the linear, quadratic and exponential Phan–Thien–Tanner (PTT) viscoelastic models, for axial and helical annular fully-developed flows under no slip and slip boundary conditions, the latter given by the linear and nonlinear Navier slip laws. The rheology of the three PTT model functions is discussed together with the influence of the slip velocity upon the flow velocity and stress fields. For the linear PTT model, full analytical solutions for the inverse problem (unknown velocity) are devised for the linear Navier slip law and two different slip exponents. For the linear PTT model with other values of the slip exponent and for the quadratic PTT model, the polynomial equation for the radial location (β) of the null shear stress must be solved numerically. For both models, the solution of the direct problem is given by an iterative procedure involving three nonlinear equations, one for β, other for the pressure gradient and another for the torque per unit length. For the exponential PTT model we devise a numerical procedure that can easily compute the numerical solution of the pure axial flow problem

Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Free-breathing 3 T magnetic resonance t(2)-mapping of the heart.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to establish an accurate and reproducible T(2)-mapping cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) methodology at 3 T and to evaluate it in healthy volunteers and patients with myocardial infarct. BACKGROUND: Myocardial edema affects the T(2) relaxation time on CMR. Therefore, T(2)-mapping has been established to characterize edema at 1.5 T. A 3 T implementation designed for longitudinal studies and aimed at guiding and monitoring therapy remains to be implemented, thoroughly characterized, and evaluated in vivo. METHODS: A free-breathing navigator-gated radial CMR pulse sequence with an adiabatic T(2) preparation module and an empirical fitting equation for T(2) quantification was optimized using numerical simulations and was validated at 3 T in a phantom study. Its reproducibility for myocardial T(2) quantification was then ascertained in healthy volunteers and improved using an external reference phantom with known T(2). In a small cohort of patients with established myocardial infarction, the local T(2) value and extent of the edematous region were determined and compared with conventional T(2)-weighted CMR and x-ray coronary angiography, where available. RESULTS: The numerical simulations and phantom study demonstrated that the empirical fitting equation is significantly more accurate for T(2) quantification than that for the more conventional exponential decay. The volunteer study consistently demonstrated a reproducibility error as low as 2 ± 1% using the external reference phantom and an average myocardial T(2) of 38.5 ± 4.5 ms. Intraobserver and interobserver variability in the volunteers were -0.04 ± 0.89 ms (p = 0.86) and -0.23 ± 0.91 ms (p = 0.87), respectively. In the infarction patients, the T(2) in edema was 62.4 ± 9.2 ms and was consistent with the x-ray angiographic findings. Simultaneously, the extent of the edematous region by T(2)-mapping correlated well with that from the T(2)-weighted images (r = 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: The new, well-characterized 3 T methodology enables robust and accurate cardiac T(2)-mapping at 3 T with high spatial resolution, while the addition of a reference phantom improves reproducibility. This technique may be well suited for longitudinal studies in patients with suspected or established heart disease.

Prediction of infant drug exposure through breastfeeding: population PK modeling and simulation of fluoxetine

BACKGROUND: Risks of significant infant drug exposurethrough breastmilk are poorly defined for many drugs, and largescalepopulation data are lacking. We used population pharmacokinetics(PK) modeling to predict fluoxetine exposure levels ofinfants via mother's milk in a simulated population of 1000 motherinfantpairs.METHODS: Using our original data on fluoxetine PK of 25breastfeeding women, a population PK model was developed withNONMEM and parameters, including milk concentrations, wereestimated. An exponential distribution model was used to account forindividual variation. Simulation random and distribution-constrainedassignment of doses, dosing time, feeding intervals and milk volumewas conducted to generate 1000 mother-infant pairs with characteristicssuch as the steady-state serum concentrations (Css) and infantdose relative to the maternal weight-adjusted dose (relative infantdose: RID). Full bioavailability and a conservative point estimate of1-month-old infant CYP2D6 activity to be 20% of the adult value(adjusted by weigth) according to a recent study, were assumed forinfant Css calculations.RESULTS: A linear 2-compartment model was selected as thebest model. Derived parameters, including milk-to-plasma ratios(mean: 0.66; SD: 0.34; range, 0 - 1.1) were consistent with the valuesreported in the literature. The estimated RID was below 10% in >95%of infants. The model predicted median infant-mother Css ratio was0.096 (range 0.035 - 0.25); literature reported mean was 0.07 (range0-0.59). Moreover, the predicted incidence of infant-mother Css ratioof >0.2 was less than 1%.CONCLUSION: Our in silico model prediction is consistent withclinical observations, suggesting that substantial systemic fluoxetineexposure in infants through human milk is rare, but further analysisshould include active metabolites. Our approach may be valid forother drugs. [supported by CIHR and Swiss National Science Foundation(SNSF)]

An ancient founder mutation in PROKR2 impairs human reproduction.

Congenital gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) deficiency manifests as absent or incomplete sexual maturation and infertility. Although the disease exhibits marked locus and allelic heterogeneity, with the causal mutations being both rare and private, one causal mutation in the prokineticin receptor, PROKR2 L173R, appears unusually prevalent among GnRH-deficient patients of diverse geographic and ethnic origins. To track the genetic ancestry of PROKR2 L173R, haplotype mapping was performed in 22 unrelated patients with GnRH deficiency carrying L173R and their 30 first-degree relatives. The mutation's age was estimated using a haplotype-decay model. Thirteen subjects were informative and in all of them the mutation was present on the same ~123 kb haplotype whose population frequency is ≤10%. Thus, PROKR2 L173R represents a founder mutation whose age is estimated at approximately 9000 years. Inheritance of PROKR2 L173R-associated GnRH deficiency was complex with highly variable penetrance among carriers, influenced by additional mutations in the other PROKR2 allele (recessive inheritance) or another gene (digenicity). The paradoxical identification of an ancient founder mutation that impairs reproduction has intriguing implications for the inheritance mechanisms of PROKR2 L173R-associated GnRH deficiency and for the relevant processes of evolutionary selection, including potential selective advantages of mutation carriers in genes affecting reproduction.

Atomic Ordering and Martensitic Transitions in Cu-Zn-Al Shape Memory Alloys

We present results from both, calorimetric and dilatometric studies of the isothermal ordering process taking place in a Cu-Zn-Al shape memory alloy after quenches from Tq temperatures ranging from 350 K to 1200 K. The dissipated energy and the length variations of the system are obtained during the process. The change of these quantities in the whole process have been compared with the difference [MATH] between Ms, measured after the relaxation and Ms measured just after the quench. We obtain that these three quantities present, as a function of Tq, the same qualitative behaviour. These changes are then associated with changes of the L21 ordering after the quench in the system. The relaxational process does not follow a single exponential decay. Instead, a continuous slowing down is observed. A relaxation time [MATH] has been defined to characterize the relaxation rate. We show that [MATH] depends on both the annealing and the quenching (Tq [MATH] 800 K) temperatures through an Arrhenius law.

Les processus additifs markoviens et leurs applications en finance mathématique

Cette thèse porte sur les questions d'évaluation et de couverture des options dans un modèle exponentiel-Lévy avec changements de régime. Un tel modèle est construit sur un processus additif markovien un peu comme le modèle de Black- Scholes est basé sur un mouvement Brownien. Du fait de l'existence de plusieurs sources d'aléa, nous sommes en présence d'un marché incomplet et ce fait rend inopérant les développements théoriques initiés par Black et Scholes et Merton dans le cadre d'un marché complet. Nous montrons dans cette thèse que l'utilisation de certains résultats de la théorie des processus additifs markoviens permet d'apporter des solutions aux problèmes d'évaluation et de couverture des options. Notamment, nous arrivons à caracté- riser la mesure martingale qui minimise l'entropie relative à la mesure de probabilit é historique ; aussi nous dérivons explicitement sous certaines conditions, le portefeuille optimal qui permet à un agent de minimiser localement le risque quadratique associé. Par ailleurs, dans une perspective plus pratique nous caract érisons le prix d'une option Européenne comme l'unique solution de viscosité d'un système d'équations intégro-di érentielles non-linéaires. Il s'agit là d'un premier pas pour la construction des schémas numériques pour approcher ledit prix.

Some Applications of Markov Additive Processes as Models in Insurance and Financial Mathematics

Cette thèse est principalement constituée de trois articles traitant des processus markoviens additifs, des processus de Lévy et d'applications en finance et en assurance. Le premier chapitre est une introduction aux processus markoviens additifs (PMA), et une présentation du problème de ruine et de notions fondamentales des mathématiques financières. Le deuxième chapitre est essentiellement l'article "Lévy Systems and the Time Value of Ruin for Markov Additive Processes" écrit en collaboration avec Manuel Morales et publié dans la revue European Actuarial Journal. Cet article étudie le problème de ruine pour un processus de risque markovien additif. Une identification de systèmes de Lévy est obtenue et utilisée pour donner une expression de l'espérance de la fonction de pénalité actualisée lorsque le PMA est un processus de Lévy avec changement de régimes. Celle-ci est une généralisation des résultats existant dans la littérature pour les processus de risque de Lévy et les processus de risque markoviens additifs avec sauts "phase-type". Le troisième chapitre contient l'article "On a Generalization of the Expected Discounted Penalty Function to Include Deficits at and Beyond Ruin" qui est soumis pour publication. Cet article présente une extension de l'espérance de la fonction de pénalité actualisée pour un processus subordinateur de risque perturbé par un mouvement brownien. Cette extension contient une série de fonctions escomptée éspérée des minima successives dus aux sauts du processus de risque après la ruine. Celle-ci a des applications importantes en gestion de risque et est utilisée pour déterminer la valeur espérée du capital d'injection actualisé. Finallement, le quatrième chapitre contient l'article "The Minimal entropy martingale measure (MEMM) for a Markov-modulated exponential Lévy model" écrit en collaboration avec Romuald Hervé Momeya et publié dans la revue Asia-Pacific Financial Market. Cet article présente de nouveaux résultats en lien avec le problème de l'incomplétude dans un marché financier où le processus de prix de l'actif risqué est décrit par un modèle exponentiel markovien additif. Ces résultats consistent à charactériser la mesure martingale satisfaisant le critère de l'entropie. Cette mesure est utilisée pour calculer le prix d'une option, ainsi que des portefeuilles de couverture dans un modèle exponentiel de Lévy avec changement de régimes.

Parameter Estimation in Minification Processes

In this article it is proved that the stationary Markov sequences generated by minification models are ergodic and uniformly mixing. These results are used to establish the optimal properties of estimators for the parameters in the model. The problem of estimating the parameters in the exponential minification model is discussed in detail.